Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday joined a chorus of world leaders welcoming the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire but issued a thinly veiled swipe at the Trump administration for having initiated the hostilities.

“Ceasefires are always good news. Especially if they lead to a just and lasting peace. But this momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost,” Sánchez said in a social media post, according to a translation.

“The Government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket.”

Sánchez, who has emerged as one of the European Union’s leading critics of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, called for “diplomacy, international law and PEACE” to prevail.

His comments come shortly after the U.S. president said he had agreed to suspend attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks, sparking a broad-based relief rally across risk assets.

Trump had earlier threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if no deal was struck by his Tuesday deadline.

Iranian officials said the temporary truce meant safe passage through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz would be “possible,” subject to coordination with its armed forces and “technical limitations” — caveats that may give Tehran some room to define compliance on its own terms.

World leaders welcomed the ceasefire, although analysts characterized the agreement as fragile and warned that a substantial lack of trust on both sides will likely complicate the path to lasting peace.

Sánchez has repeatedly raised the ire of the White House since the U.S. and Israel first launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.

Spain’s government refused to allow two jointly operated bases in its territory from being used in U.S. strikes against Iran, before later closing its airspace to U.S. aircraft involved in attacks as it doubled down on its anti-war stance.

In response, Trump renewed his criticism of Spain’s defense spending and threatened to sever all trade ties with the southern European country.

Alongside Spain’s prime minister, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the two-week ceasefire, saying it brings “much needed de-escalation.”

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the deal as “a step back from the brink after weeks of escalation.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also welcomed the ceasefire agreement, saying it “will bring a moment of relief to the region and the world.”

Israel, for its part, backed the U.S. ceasefire with Iran but said the agreement doesn’t cover fighting against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, India, China and Japan all issued statements welcoming the diplomatic breakthrough, which was brokered by Pakistan.

Further talks to explore a comprehensive end to the Middle East crisis are scheduled to take place in Islamabad on Friday.

— CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger contributed to this report.

A temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparked a broad relief rally across assets on Wednesday, but experts warned that any deal concerning lasting peace will be complicated by a major trust deficit.

The ceasefire came following hastened diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan and just hours before Trump’s threatened deadline for wiping out the entire Iranian civilization, briefly pulling the region back from the brink of a massive military bombardment.

Oil prices cooled to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement, but remain far above the pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel.

While U.S. President Donald Trump said the two-week ceasefire was contingent on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials stated that safe passage through the strait would be “possible,” subject to coordination with its armed forces and “technical limitations” — caveats that may give Iran some room to define compliance on its own terms.

“This is a problem that could derail the ceasefire later this year,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, warning that the coordination requirement remains a risky ambiguity in both sides’ statements so far.

Trump may temporarily accept Iran as a gatekeeper — with U.S. midterm elections approaching and gasoline prices sharply higher than before the war — but after the election, the U.S. national security establishment will start to demand a more permanent solution,” said Gertken. “Fighting will ignite later this year, if not later this month.”

Tehran also said that its armed forces will cease defensive operations if attacks against Iran are halted. After the ceasefire came into effect at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, missiles were still launched from Iran towards Israel and several Gulf states.

The reprieve on Tuesday would allow some time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis, with their delegations expected to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

Iran is reportedly finalizing a joint maritime protocol with Oman to institutionalize coordinated management of tanker traffic through the strait, which could embed Iranian authority over the crucial energy artery into a standing bilateral agreement.

Israel agreed to suspend strikes but urged Washington to press for deeper Iranian concessions, including the surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles. In its 10-point terms, Iran requested Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program and the lifting of all sanctions.

The ceasefire will likely hold in the near term, given the economic costs accruing to the global economy from six weeks of conflict, said Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments. “Parties with vested interest in stopping the conflict and reopening the strait will double down on efforts to find a compromise,” he said.

If the truce holds and the strait reopens, the global economic damage should prove manageable, Langham added. Central banks could broadly resume their pre-conflict paths — and attention may shift from inflation to growth, if commodity prices normalize quickly, he added.

The ceasefire sparked a relief rally in markets amid repricing for a de-escalation in the conflict, but investors will watch for something more durable than a two-week pause, Geoff Yu, senior market strategist at BNY, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

“What the market is going to start pricing ahead is a first step towards further de-escalation and perhaps something more permanent,” he said, flagging that the disruption has extended beyond crude oil to commodities such as helium, critical to semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan.

The reticence expressed by Democrats about removing President Donald Trump from office — even after he ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and attacked Iran without seeking congressional approval — quickly fell away after his latest threat to Iran.

The president’s Tuesday morning Truth Social post, which threatened “a whole civilization will die tonight” and raised the specter of nuclear war, began a chorus of calls either for Trump’s impeachment or for his removal via the invocation of the 25th Amendment. On Tuesday evening, Trump and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.

“This is a threat of genocide and merits removal from office. The President’s mental faculties are collapsing and cannot be trusted,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., posted to X on Tuesday. “To every individual in the President’s chain of command: You have a duty to refuse illegal orders. That includes carrying out this threat.”

Trump’s ultimatum came ahead of his Tuesday night deadline for Iran to make a deal with the U.S. and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping channel for the world’s oil out of the Persian Gulf.

The chance of Trump being removed from office is low, and his Cabinet members — who would have to play an active role in invoking the 25th Amendment — routinely publicly praise him.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., posted to X after the announcement that he was “glad Trump backed off and is desperately searching for any sort of exit ramp from his ridiculous bluster.”

But the pause may not be enough to forestall calls for removal in Congress, where dozens of Democrats — and a few Republicans — condemned Trump on Tuesday. Several said the ceasefire changes nothing.

“Just because a President announces he’s agreed to a two week ceasefire moments before he threatened to commit war crimes, does not mean he is suddenly fit to serve. #25thAmendment,” posted Rep. Melanie Stansbury, D-N.M.

Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., on Monday introduced articles of impeachment, citing Trump’s “serial usurpation of the congressional war power and commission of murder, war crimes and piracy.”

On Tuesday, Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., also advocated for impeachment. “When will it be enough for my Republican colleagues to grow spines and remove him from office?” Omar posted to X.

Others, such as Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., argued that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment — which allows for the involuntary transfer of power if the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet declare the president incapacitated — should be invoked.

“If the United States Congress has any life left in it, every member of Congress and senator must be calling for Trump’s removal today based on the 25th Amendment,” Khanna said in a video posted to X. “He is threatening the entire destruction of a civilization. He is calling Iranians animals.”

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a statement late Tuesday that Trump should be removed from office one way or another.

“If the Cabinet is not willing to invoke the 25th Amendment and restore sanity, Republicans must reconvene Congress to end this war.”

The White House criticized the calls for Trump to be removed from office.

“This is pathetic,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in an email. “Democrats have been talking about impeaching President Trump since before he was even sworn into office. The Democrats in Congress are deranged, weak, and ineffective, which is why their approval ratings are at historic lows.”

Just 140 Democrats in December voted to advance a measure from Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, to impeach Trump.

Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who has at times called for Trump’s impeachment, told CNBC in March that any such effort was off the table for at least as long as Democrats are in the minority in both chambers. And in an election year in which Democrats are trying to hammer Trump and Republicans on affordability, many see impeachment as a losing issue.

“I think when we take control of the House we will consider that,” Waters said.

But neither impeachment nor the use of the 25th Amendment is likely at the moment, with Republicans in control of both chambers and no open revolt within the Trump administration over the Iran war.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment has never been invoked and would require buy-in from Vice President JD Vance, the Cabinet and eventually two-thirds of Congress if Trump argued he is not incapacitated.

Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former Georgia representative and Trump acolyte-turned-antagonist, called Trump’s post “evil and madness.”

“25TH AMENDMENT!!! Not a single bomb has dropped on America. We cannot kill an entire civilization,” Greene posted to X.

Elected Republicans began to publicly recoil in the hours after the president’s initial proclamation that he would destroy the Iranian civilization.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, broke sharply with Trump in a social media post on Tuesday, condemning his rhetoric.

“The President’s threat that ‘a whole civilization will die tonight’ cannot be excused away as an attempt to gain leverage in negotiations with Iran,” Murkowski said. “This type of rhetoric is an affront to the ideals our nation has sought to uphold and promote around the world for nearly 250 years. It undermines our long-standing role as a global beacon of freedom and directly endangers Americans both abroad and at home.”

Murkowski, a moderate who has clashed with Trump in the past, said “[e]veryone involved — especially the President and Iran’s leaders — must de-escalate their unprecedented saber-rattling before it is too late.”

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., a current Trump ally, broke with the president during a Monday appearance on the “John Solomon Reports” podcast. Johnson said he hoped Trump’s words were “bluster.”

“I do not want to see us start blowing up civilian infrastructure,” Johnson said. “We are not at war with the Iranian people. We are trying to liberate them.”

And Rep. Nathaniel Moran, R-Texas, in a statement posted to X on Tuesday pushed back on Trump’s rhetoric while stopping short of calling for his removal.

“I do not support the destruction of a ‘whole civilization.’ That is not who we are, and it is not consistent with the principles that have long guided America,” Moran wrote. “I have and will continue to support a strong national defense — one that is focused, disciplined, and firmly rooted in protecting the safety and security of the American people. But, how we protect the lives of the innocent is just as important as how we engage the enemy.”

Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former California Republican recently turned independent, in a post on X said, “The United States does not destroy civilizations.”

“Nor do we threaten to do so as some sort of negotiating tactic. We should all desire a future of freedom, security, and prosperity for the people of Iran,” he said, asserting that Congress “has a responsibility to conduct oversight with respect to ongoing military operations and our obligations under both U.S. law and international agreements to which we are a signatory.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants, saying the “New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!” in a Truth Social post.

Trump did not elaborate on what needed to be “done,” but said the U.S. “hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran.”

Hours later, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reportedly claimed that a U.S. F-35 fighter jet was shot down over central Iran. Images of the jet were posted on Telegram, with one photo that appeared to show the words “U.S. Air Forces in Europe” on what appeared to be the tail section of a plane.

The U.S. Central Command, which oversees the region, and Iranian authorities did not respond to a request for comment at the time of publication.

Trump’s latest threat came a day after a nationwide address in which he said the U.S. military would hit Iran “extremely hard” for the next two or three weeks. He added that the U.S. would “bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.”

Hours after his speech, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a defiant tone on X, saying that “there was no oil or gas being pumped in the Middle East back then,” referring to Trump’s stone age remarks.

“Are POTUS and Americans who put him in office sure that they want to turn back the clock?” Araghchi said.

Iran has effectively shut tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil route, after the U.S. and Israel attacked the country on Feb. 28.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to send Iran back to the “stone age” as the war entered its second month and the U.S. military build-up in the Middle East showed no signs of slowing.

Despite reports of overtures from the U.S., including ceasefires and a 15-point peace plan to end the war, Iran has publicly contradicted multiple reports about negotiations with the Trump administration on numerous occasions.

Tehran had described the 15-point proposal as “extremely maximalist and unreasonable,” according to an Al Jazeera report on March 25, citing a high-ranking diplomatic source.

Trump said Wednesday that Iran’s “New Regime President” had asked Washington for a ceasefire, a claim that Tehran has denied. Trump has not specified who the “President” is.

“We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!,” he wrote.

Attacks on power plants could constitute a war crime and violate international law, legal experts said.

In a letter dated Thursday and signed by over 100 law experts, the group said international law prohibits attacks on “objects indispensable to the survival of civilians, and the attacks threatened by Trump, if implemented, could entail war crimes.”

Trump had also earlier said that he could target water desalination plants in Iran.

The Gulf Cooperation Council on Thursday called on the United Nations Security Council to take “all necessary measures to ensure the immediate cessation of Iranian aggressions against the Council states.”

The six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — have come under attack from Iranian missiles and drones as the war entered its second month.

The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that its Mina al-Ahmadi refinery was hit by drones early on Friday.

Jassim Albudaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, said that while the bloc does not seek war, Iran had “exceeded all red lines” and described Tehran’s attacks as “treacherous.”

Bahrain, the current rotating president of the Security Council, has led an effort to pass a U.N. resolution to ​authorize “all necessary means” to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

But the proposal reportedly stalled after veto-wielding Security Council members China, Russia and France objected to the draft resolution, which would have authorized military action against Iran.

Wartime propaganda has evolved for the social media age, and Iran is now vying with the U.S. to be the world’s biggest keyboard warrior.

As the real-world bombardment in the Middle East continues and casualties mount, both sides in the month-old war are also firing off ironic, pop-culture-steeped memes on the online battlefield. Iran’s new leaders have quickly assumed an online fighting posture, amping up their memes and pointed attacks on the U.S. and Israel.

“What we’re seeing is not just a war of weapons, but it’s also a war of aesthetics,” said Nancy Snow, a professor and author who studies propaganda. “Whoever controls the meme controls the mood.”

Iran’s prime target is President Donald Trump, with state media and top officials alike relentlessly mocking and amplifying criticisms of the U.S. leader.

Top members of Iran’s parliament, its Revolutionary Guard and even its president, Masoud Pezeshkian, have sought to insult or undermine Trump in their messaging. And they’re using the world’s most popular social media platforms, such as Facebook and X, to get the word out.

Among the most striking examples: a series of seemingly AI-generated videos depicting Iranian military successes against the U.S. and Israel in a Legoesque cartoon art style.

One shows a panicked Trump ordering an airstrike after reviewing the “Epstein File” alongside Satan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Another, a rap diss track, calls Trump a “loser” and accuses him of being Netanyahu’s “puppet” over images of stock market sell-offs, missile strikes and coffins.

Those and other messages out of Iran regularly reference Jeffrey Epstein, the late notorious sex offender and former Trump friend at the center of conspiracy theories that the president launched the Iran war to distract the public from headlines about releases of files related to the Epstein investigation.

The plain intent of Iran’s messaging is not just to project defiance and counter U.S. assessments of Tehran’s military weakness, but also to undermine Trump by homing in on some of his biggest political vulnerabilities.

“Iran is blending grievance with meme culture — mixing Epstein, anti-war sentiment and pop visuals to penetrate fragmented Western audiences,” Snow said.

As for why they’re using Legos to convey their message, it may be because of their universal appeal, said Dan Butler, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis who uses the toys in his teaching.

“The same reason it works in education is the reason actors would use it for propaganda: people like Legos and will tune in to watch Lego-based films,” Butler told CNBC in an email.

“In fact if something is violent, using Legos might make people lower their defenses and also be more likely to share the material,” he said.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, has melded wartime messaging with internet culture even more literally.

In the early days of the war, official accounts shared videos splicing clips from sports, movies and video games into real footage of military strikes.

The visuals dovetail with the relentlessly bombastic and boastful rhetoric from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who have repeatedly trumpeted the “obliteration” of Iran’s military while assuring that the U.S. is rapidly nearing its objectives for victory.

But the White House officials involved in creating the videos say they have proven effective in drawing attention and connecting with young people. One of them told Politico the efforts are meant to tout U.S. troops’ heroic work “in a way that captivates an audience.”

The White House told CNBC it intends to stick with its messaging strategy.

“The legacy media wants us to apologize for highlighting the United States Military’s incredible success, but the White House will continue showcasing the many examples of Iran’s ballistic missiles, production facilities, and dreams of owning a nuclear weapon being destroyed in real time,” spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.

On the latter metric, the strategy has been a success: Four videos posted on the official White House X account on March 5 and 6 have garnered nearly 100 million impressions as of April 1.

Iran’s goal isn’t to convince or corral its own people — who are reportedly facing extended internet outages — but rather to craft a “response offensive” to undermine the U.S. globally, Stahl said.

“There’s a lot of erosion with regard to potential [U.S.] ally support for this war, and these messages from Iran are playing right into that.”

It’s not all memes and trolling. Iranian officials are also homing in on the war’s destabilizing impact on the global economy and energy prices.

On Monday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. is “in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.”

The S&P 500 ended the trading day lower while oil prices continued to rise.

Ghalibaf on Tuesday shared a CNN article on Americans struggling with the war-induced spike in U.S. gas prices.

“Sad, but this is what happens when your leaders put others ahead of hard-working and ordinary Americans. It’s not America First anymore … it’s Israel First,” he wrote.

Hello, this is Holly Ellyatt writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Global markets will be on tenterhooks today after the White House said that U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver an address “to the nation to provide an important update on Iran” late on Wednesday evening.

The U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran is just over a month old but there’s a clear sense that war fatigue could be creeping in at the top, with Trump reportedly telling aides that he was willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking of which, the president on Tuesday again lambasted European allies for not getting involved in the U.S.’ war, telling the U.K. and France to “Go get your own oil” from the Iran-blocked maritime passage.

Pace yourselves if you want to listen in to President Trump’s address on Wednesday giving an update on the Iran war — it’s set to take place at 9 p.m. ET — that’s 2 a.m. on Thursday London time.

“We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We’ll be ‌leaving very soon.” He also seemed to dismiss the idea of having to reach a negotiated settlement to end the war, signaling that the U.S. could just declare victory and end hostilities.

Global markets certainly like the idea of the war ending sooner rather than later: Asia-Pacific markets rebounded overnight while European bourses look set to rally at the open on Wednesday. U.S. stock futures also ticked higher on hopes that Trump is looking for an off-ramp to the war, which has sent global energy prices rocketing. Crude oil prices once again extended gains overnight.

We’ll have to wait and see what the president says later, but he’ll be mindful that this war has never had much support from U.S. voters and the majority want him to focus on domestic matters — ‘America First,’ remember?

Speaking of voting, the president signed an executive order on Tuesday cracking down on mail-in voting ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November. The move did not go down well with voting-rights advocates, who warned it could disenfranchise millions of Americans.

It’s April Fool’s Day, so watch out for any news that seems too outlandish – I know, it’s getting harder these days.

— Holly Ellyatt

Oracle cutting thousands in latest layoff round as company continues to ramp AI spending

The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within roughly the next one to three weeks. Even then, enough damage may have been done already to leave energy and many other prices higher for longer. 

These risks haven’t been clearly reflected in some widely followed markets, including stocks broadly and the benchmark Brent crude price. Stopgap measures to soften the blow of the oil cutoff have kept crude prices relatively low in the U.S. and European markets. But when those measures lose their effectiveness in early-to-mid April, analysts warn there will be little the U.S. or other governments can do to keep energy prices from rising dramatically. 

Iran has attacked civilian ships and energy infrastructure in its neighborhood, causing traffic in the narrow Strait of Hormuz to fall to a standstill. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally moves through the approximately 100-mile waterway, which borders Iran. Some oil has been rerouted through pipelines, but they can only carry so much. The U.S. and others are releasing 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves — the biggest release on record — and the U.S. has temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil to give the market breathing room.

The White House says it believes the president’s military strategy will soon end the Iranian threat, allowing the price worries to fade.

But all agree there is no substitute for reopening the strait. Oil industry executives have in the past few days sketched out the risk of growing disruption from the war. 

“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday at S&P Global’s CERAWeek in Houston. Shell CEO Wael Sawan echoed him a few days later at the annual gathering of industry heavyweights. Disruptions that started in South Asia have “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said Wednesday.

The talk of the conference was the difference between so-called paper and physical prices, said Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Texas at Austin. 

Paper prices reflect trading in financial markets and are often the headline oil prices discussed in the press. They have generally remained lower than prices for physical delivery of oil, especially in Asia, which is the main buyer of crude from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures prices rose 36% from Feb. 27, the last day of trading before the started, through March 27, when they traded above $113 a barrel. But the Dubai price, which tracks physical delivery from certain Middle East sellers, is up 76%, more than twice the paper price, at $126. That price has been especially volatile lately. 

One reason paper prices are lower is they have regularly fallen in reaction to suggestions by President Donald Trump that the war could soon end or otherwise de-escalate. Traders call that “jawboning.” 

The looming possibility of physical supply shortages in the oil market appears to be blunting the effect of Trump’s jawboning. Financial markets reflect the reality that Trump has often managed to avoid worst-case scenarios, including when he attacked Iran’s nuclear program in June. Oil futures then spiked but quickly fell once it was clear the war wouldn’t spread. 

The U.S. is preparing to send thousands more troops to the Middle East, prompting speculation about a ground attack on Iran amid conflicting accounts of peace talks.

The Pentagon is reportedly preparing to send about 3,000 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, alongside two Marine Expeditionary Units, to assist military operations in Iran. CNBC has contacted the White House and is awaiting a response.

Military experts said that the number of additional troops being deployed to the region appears to be consistent with plans for discrete and time-limited operations — rather than a sustained ground campaign.

It puts two strategic Iranian islands in the spotlight and raises questions about a potential move to seize the Islamic Republic’s nuclear materials.

Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis estimated that there were likely only around 4,000 to 5,000 “trigger pullers” or ground troops.

“That is enough to seize a small target for a period of time. You’ve got to understand, even the 82nd Airborne Division, it’s an immediate reaction force to provide very quick reaction on the ground but only in advance of something bigger coming in behind that,” Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at Defense Priorities, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

“I have seen no evidence that any kind of a force of size has been even considered, much less alerted, prepared, equipped, trained up that you would need to go … That takes months of time to do.”

Davis said that, from the limited number of ground troops being deployed, there were three possibilities that the U.S. could theoretically execute.

The first possibility is seizing Qeshm Island, which sits “in the horseshoe bend of the Strait of Hormuz,” Davis said.

Qeshm Island, off Iran’s southern coast, is the largest island in the Persian Gulf. Located near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, the arrow-shaped island has emerged as a potential U.S. target amid reports that anti-ship missiles, mines, drones and attack craft are being kept there in underground tunnels.

“All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces,” Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said on X, according to a Google translation.

“If they step out of line, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction, become the target of relentless attacks,” he added.

Ruben Stewart, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank, said the number of U.S. forces preparing to be deployed was not consistent with a sustained ground campaign.

“What is notably absent are the heavy armoured units, logistics depth, and command structures required for a prolonged land war. In practical terms, this is a force that can act quickly and selectively, but not one that could sustain operations deep inside Iran or over an extended period,” Stewart told CNBC by email.

“Seizing Kharg Island is technically feasible but escalatory, given its centrality to Iran’s oil exports. By contrast, securing Iran’s nuclear material would be the least realistic with this force as it would require a far larger, sustained ground presence,” he added.

The relatively limited level of deployment was perhaps best understood as a tool of coercive leverage, Stewart said, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to increase its bargaining power and signal that it has options if diplomacy fails.

The White House has said that Trump has been engaged in “productive” talks with Iran over the last three days, adding that the military operation in Iran was “ahead of schedule.”

Iran, however, has repeatedly denied holding talks with Washington.

Goldman Sachs’ senior chairman and ex-CEO Lloyd Blankfein has warned that the damage from the Iran war “is going to last,” even if there were “a resolution tomorrow” — and urged investors to prioritize contingency planning amid the turmoil.

Speaking with CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Wednesday, Blankfein suggested that certain parts of the market may be too complacent in their approach to the conflict, adding that it’s equally dangerous to trade on the basis that “all will be resolved” as it is to say it will “never be resolved.”

“People know that, even if it stopped tomorrow, there’s so much damage to the infrastructure that the stress is going to last longer anyway, even if there was a resolution tomorrow, and there’s no reason to think there’s a resolution tomorrow,” he said of the Middle East war.

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 escalated into a regional war in which Iran has targeted energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and gas, has been severely disrupted.

Blankfein pointed to the wild swings in energy markets in recent weeks as investors have sought to navigate the fallout from the conflict and price in the lasting impact from disrupted global oil supplies. Against this backdrop, he said investors should eschew conviction trades in favor of a more cautious approach, and “be very fleet of foot and very protective” of their positions.

“You could put on hedges, and those hedges could be worthless tomorrow, if things go another way,” Blankfein said. “I think people should be good contingency planners at this time.”

In a wide-ranging interview, Blankfein — who as CEO steered Goldman through the 2008 Global Financial Crisis — also reflected on the broader fiscal picture in the U.S. as well as potential risks arising from private markets.

He said the investment backdrop before the war in Iran was “more tailwinds than headwinds,” pointing to solid growth and a lower interest rate trajectory. “That’s all been made secondary or tertiary to what’s going on in the war and the price of energy,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said questions remain over the accuracy of valuation marks in private market funds’ portfolios, adding that assets have not been tested as equity markets have risen.

“There has to be a reckoning — we haven’t had one, and the longer between reckonings, the worse it could potentially be,” he added.