How the Iran conflict is spreading — in pictures


The conflict in the Middle East is rapidly expanding across the region as the U.S. and Israel-led war with Iran enters its sixth day.

Images published Thursday showed destruction across Tehran after nearly a week of strikes on Iran’s capital.

Iran has retaliated by launching a wave of missiles and drones at Israel, as well as targeting U.S. allies in the region.

Explosions have been reported in Qatar and Bahrain, while oil-rich Azerbaijan said it was attacked by two Iranian drones and Tehran claimed naval fighters had struck a U.S. tanker in the north of the Persian Gulf.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said the Iran war could last for four to five weeks but warned the campaign could also “go far longer than that.”

A driver stops as a smoke plume rises after an airstrike on March 5, 2026 in the Boroujerdi Town neighborhood in southern Tehran, Iran.

Majid Saeedi | Getty Images News | Getty Images

An Israeli tank moves in Southern Lebanon near the border with Israel, as seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on March 5, 2026 in Northern Israel. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, launched missiles at Israel in what it said was retaliation for the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Amir Levy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Debris of a NATO air defence system that intercepted a missile launched from Iran is seen in Dortyol, in southern Hatay province, Turkey, March 4, 2026 in this screengrab from video.

Ihlas News Agency | Via Reuters

A blaze sweeps following Israeli bombardment on a solar farm and electricity generation facility in Lebanon’s southern coastal city of Tyre on March 4, 2026.

Kawnat Haju | AFP | Getty Images

A person rides on a scooter as smoke rises in the Fujairah oil industry zone following a fire caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defenses, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3, 2026.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters

The US embassy headquarters in Riyadh is pictured on March 3, 2026, after it was hit by drone strikes earlier. Iran hit back at industrial and diplomatic targets across the Middle East on March 3, with Washington warning its citizens to evacuate the entire region.

– | Afp | Getty Images

A person stands on the roof of a building looking at a plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on March 3, 2026.

Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images


Iran war prediction market bets draw heat: ‘Insane this is legal’


Prediction markets are facing renewed scrutiny from federal lawmakers after wagers about the fate of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the Saturday bombardment of Iran.

“It’s insane this is legal,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., in a post to X, referring to another post highlighting people who had made money on the invasion.

“People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”

Murphy’s post replied to a tweet that said six “suspected insiders” made $1.2 million betting on a U.S. strike on Iran on the prediction site Polymarket.

CNBC has reached out to Murphy’s office for more details on his proposal.

Murphy’s criticism comes a week after six other Democratic senators, led by Adam Schiff of California, told the Commodity Futures Trading Commission they had serious concerns with prediction market contracts “that incentivize physical injury or death,” saying the contracts “present dangerous national security risks.”

The letter pointed to recent contracts on Polymarket, including ones related to the possible explosion of a NASA spaceship launch, the fate of Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Gambling on war and death doesn’t just present national security risks, it also raises serious concerns about potential insider trading — presenting unscrupulous government officials with a chance to profit off the new war in Iran,” Schiff said in a post on X on Monday.

“These contracts are immoral. @CFTC can and must ban them.”

Other lawmakers, too, have expressed concern about prediction markets after the invasion. Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., said on X that “[p]rediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action.”

“We need answers, transparency, and oversight,” Levin said.

The controversy comes as a new trade group led by President Donald Trump’s former acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, Gambling Is Not Investing, launched to push tighter guardrails on prediction markets.

Gambling Is Not Investing takes aim at another key market in the prediction space, markets on sports.

Many states in recent years have labored to pass sports betting laws, tapping massive tax revenues from wagers to balance their budgets. Some states now argue that prediction markets, which are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and often offer betting lines on outcomes in sporting events, are encroaching on their regulated sportsbooks.

“Gambling products — regardless of what you call them — must follow established state and tribal laws,” Mulvaney said.

“Rebranding sports wagering as ‘trading’ or ‘investing’ or ‘predicting’ misleads consumers, undermines responsible gaming protections, and weakens the state and tribal systems built to protect the public and fund vital community services.”

The prediction market Kalshi, in a comment to CNBC, said it “doesn’t allow markets directly tied to death,” regarding betting lines over whether Khamenei would be out of power that have received criticism. The company issued refunds on the market, citing regulations barring wagers on death.

“We included every precaution on this market to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death,” the company said. “Our rules were clear from the beginning, we never changed them, and we settled based on the rules. We reimbursed all fees and net losses because we thought the UX could have been clearer for users.”

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour also responded to Murphy directly in a separate post, saying “regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets.”

“The market you’re posting is unregulated and offshore,” Mansour said.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.


Steve Eisman says investors should ignore U.S.-Iran war, will be long-term ‘positive’


Steve Eisman says investors should ignore U.S.-Iran war, will be long-term ‘positive’

Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame said investors should ignore the U.S.-Iran war as it could be a long-term positive for markets.

In fact, when the investor was asked Monday by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” whether he would change anything because of the conflict, he responded with, “Not a single trade.”

“I think long term, this is very, very positive,” Eisman said. “People react because of what’s happening, oil prices are obviously up. But if it goes well, two months from now, prices will be back to where they were.”

The stock market was in turmoil Monday after the U.S. in a joint attack with Israel struck Iran over the weekend and killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an assault that triggered retaliatory attacks from Tehran.

Historically, geopolitical conflicts have little lasting effect on stocks. In data going back to 1980, the S&P 500 on average is unchanged the day after such an event, according to Barclays’ trading desk. Studies show stocks tend to recover within a month after the start of a conflict.

But sharply higher oil prices, and the potential for the war to spread across the region, could pressure the stock market for longer this time. Stocks were already close to record highs ahead of the clash, but the pace of the bull market had begun to slow on concerns about artificial intelligence’s overall impact on the economy.

In expressing his own views on the conflict, “The Real Eisman Playbook” podcast host and former Neuberger Berman money manager said he’s supportive of President Donald Trump’s actions against a regime he called a “death cult.”

However, he also acknowledged the war may take longer than expected.

“This is going to take time,” he said.


Trump says he’d ‘love not to’ attack Iran, ‘but sometimes you have to’


U.S. President Donald Trump stops to speak to the media as he departs on Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Feb. 27, 2026 in Washington, DC.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

President Donald Trump on Friday said that “I’d love not to use” the U.S. military to attack Iran, “but sometimes you have to.”

But Trump also said, “We haven’t made a final decision” on whether to attack Iran.

“We’ll see what happens,” he said. “We’re talking later today. We’ll have some additional talks today.”

Trump’s comment to reporters outside the White House came after he expressed frustration at Iran’s refusal to comply with American demands to curb its nuclear program.

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“We’re not thrilled with the way they’re negotiating,” Trump said. “They cannot have nuclear weapons.”

“I’m not happy that they’re not willing to give us what we have to have,” Trump said, referring to that condition.

Asked by a reporter if there could be a long, drawn-out conflict in the Middle East if the United States attacks Iran, Trump said, “I guess you could say there’s always a risk.”

“It’d be wonderful if they negotiate, really, in good conscience, good faith,” he said. “They are not getting there so far.”

Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who has been mediating negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, met in Washington, D.C., with Vice President JD Vance and other American officials in a bid to avoid war.

A statement issued by Oman’s government after the meeting put a positive spin on those talks that was not reflected in Trump’s blunt comments.

“The meeting examined the indirect US-Iran negotiations sponsored by the Sultanate of Oman, alongside the diplomatic endeavours seeking to culminate in a just and enduring agreement concerning the nuclear file and to guarantee the peaceful character of Iran’s nuclear energy program,” Oman’s government said.

“I am grateful for their engagement and look forward to further and decisive progress in the coming days,” al-Busaidi said in a post on X. “Peace is within our reach.”

During an interview with MS Now, when asked if there was a chance of the United States attacking Iran overnight, al-Busaidi said, “I can’t answer that question, because I don’t know.”

“I think President Trump is sincerely passionate for a deal,” al-Busaidi said. “He wants to have a deal. He wants to have a diplomatic solution, and this is what we are trying to do.”

But Trump, in a speech later Friday afternoon in Corpus Christi, Texas, said of Iran, “We have a very big decision.”

“We have a country that’s been 47 years blowing people’s legs off, arms off,” Trump said. They’ve been knocking out ships, killing people, lots of people, not only Americans, lots of people.”

Trump said he wanted to “make a deal that’s meaningful.”

“I’d rather do it the peaceful way,” Trump said, while calling Iran’s government “very difficult people, dangerous people, very difficult people.”

The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem earlier Friday authorized non-emergency U.S. government personnel and their family members to leave Israel “due to safety risks.”

Also Friday, the massive American aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, arrived off Israel’s coast.

Also on Friday, the State Department said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would visit Israel on Monday and Tuesday to discuss Iran and other regional issues.