Prediction market bets on sports, election, war would be verboten under new legislation


Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) speaks at a news conference on his marathon overnight speech on the Senate floor at the U.S. Capitol Building on Oct. 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

A group of congressional Democrats on Thursday introduced legislation that would ban prediction market bets on elections, government actions, war and sports, as scrutiny on the popular platforms intensifies.

Sens. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., are leading the measure, which comes after a series of well-timed bets placed on world events — including the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the war in Iran — raised questions about prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

“When anyone can use prediction markets to make a well-timed bet on Congress passing a bill, government decisions, or a military strike, it’s ripe for corruption and erodes public trust,” Merkley said in a statement. “The STOP Corrupt Bets Act restores the original intent of prediction markets and prevents these markets from further eroding our democratic institutions and turning them into a casino.”

The bill, which would impose broader limitations on the markets than most other legislative measures, is the latest in a flurry of proposals to rein-in prediction markets, which have exploded in popularity of late and allow users to place bets on a variety of events.

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Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and John Curtis, R-Utah, have teamed up on a measure to ban sports prediction market contracts, which they argue is tantamount to gambling and goes virtually unregulated.

Kalshi criticized Schiff and Curtis’ proposal in a statement to CNBC on Wednesday, saying, “It’s clear this bill is motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition. They’re more worried about protecting their monopolies than protecting consumers.”

A bipartisan House group on Wednesday introduced legislation barring members of Congress, the president and other executive branch officials from trading in certain prediction markets. Merkley earlier this month, along with Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., introduced his own proposal that would similarly block elected officials from getting rich off prediction markets.

As lawmakers turn up the heat, Kalshi and Polymarket both announced new insider trading protections on their platforms this week. Kalshi says it does not allow markets related to war or death.

Spokespeople for both prediction markets did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday morning.

In addition to an outright prohibition on specific prediction market activity, Merkley, Warren and Raskin’s latest proposal would clarify that these markets are against the intent of federal law that regulates contract trading and would return the power of regulating gambling to the states, according to Merkley.

At least 20 lawsuits have been filed by states and gaming regulators arguing that prediction markets offer a gambling loophole and should be state-regulated.

The new bill would also require that the Government Accountability Office — Congress’ non-partisan, independent watchdog — conduct a study on prediction markets and insider trading.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

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NFL, Paramount discussing media deal that could mean CBS pays an extra $1 billion or more


NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell at the CNBC CEO Council in Arizona, May 19, 2025.

Chris Coduto | CNBC

The NFL and Paramount Skydance‘s renewal talks on a deal to keep the league’s Sunday games on CBS are beginning to take shape, CNBC has learned.

NFL and CBS executives are negotiating a price increase, with a bid-ask spread midpoint around 50% or 60%, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. CBS currently pays around $2.1 billion a year, on average, for its Sunday afternoon games, CNBC has previously reported. A 50% increase would mean CBS would pay more than $3 billion in its next deal.

In return for the increased revenue, the NFL would eliminate the opt-out clause after the 2029-30 season that it put in its original deal with Paramount, part of an 11-year agreement that runs through the end of the 2033-34 season. That clause would have given the league the chance to walk away early.

CBS would begin paying the new fee as soon as next season for the next eight years for the same package of games.

Paramount’s adjusted projection for its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for 2026 is $3.6 billion. If Paramount’s merger with Warner Bros. Discovery is approved by regulators, the combined company would have an adjusted EBITDA projection of $18 billion, Paramount Chief Financial Officer Dennis Cinelli told investors this month.

“We have a phenomenal relationship with the NFL, and we anticipate that continuing for the foreseeable future,” Paramount CEO David Ellison told CNBC earlier this month. “They are one of our most important partners, and we plan for them to stay one of our most important partners, having just delivered a historic season in partnership with them. And, you know, ongoing negotiations, we’re not really in a position where we can comment. I promise we’ll share something as soon as we have something to say.”

Comcast‘s NBCUniversal, Amazon Prime Video and Fox are also subject to the 2029-30 opt-out clause in their deals. Disney‘s ESPN and ABC have until 2031.

Referee Shawn Smith talks to New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks players before the coin toss for the 2026 Super Bowl, at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California, on Feb. 8.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

The league has chosen to begin negotiating with Paramount’s CBS before any of its other media partners because a change-of-control provision — stemming from Skydance Media’s acquisition of Paramount Global — allows the NFL to break its deal by 2027.

The NFL might negotiate with Fox next after CBS because the terms of the deal should be similar — both companies own Sunday afternoon packages, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

Fox currently pays slightly more than CBS for its package of games — about $2.2 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Fox will “certainly look to [be] continuing that mutually beneficial relationship going forward” with the NFL, but it hasn’t had any “material conversations” on a renewal yet, CEO Lachlan Murdoch said earlier this month at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference.

The NFL also hasn’t begun material discussions with Amazon, NBC or Disney, according to people familiar with the matter. It’s unclear if the league would look to push forward with a similar 50% increase for all three of those packages.

Some executives at NBC and at Disney believe the relative strengths of their packages — Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football — have diminished as the NFL has given Amazon better games for its Thursday Night Football in recent years, according to people familiar with the matter.

ESPN already pays $2.7 billion for Monday Night Football. A 50% increase would mean ESPN would pay more than $4 billion for that package — a number Disney would likely balk at, according to people familiar with the matter.

Downstream implications

The timing and scope of the NFL’s new deals could have a significant effect on the value of other sports’ rights in the coming years.

The NHL currently has TV deals with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery, which expire after the 2028 season. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has had a number of conversations about renewing a deal before the NFL, according to two people familiar with the matter. Still, he will likely have to wait until Paramount’s deal to acquire WBD closes before inking a new agreement.

“As with an ongoing relationship, you’re always talking about the future, and from our standpoint it’s not in the context of the NFL,” said NHL spokesman Jon Weinstein.

Murdoch said last month that Fox would have to “rebalance” its sports portfolio once it pays the NFL.

Versant CEO Mark Lazarus said earlier this month he’s “prepared for the sports landscape to be shifting,” given the outsize cost of the NFL. That could allow Versant, which owns the USA Network and other cable channels, to buy rights to sports such as the NHL or MLB “that we might not have otherwise gotten involved with,” he said.

Disclosure: Versant is the parent company of CNBC.

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Trump urges Congress to ‘fix’ college football money mess


U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a round table on collegiate sports in the White House in Washington, D.C., March 6, 2026.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

President Donald Trump on Friday urged Congress to “fix” what he described as an untenable financial situation in college sports because of the relatively new system of payments to football, basketball, and other players under name, image and likeness compensation.

Trump’s comments came at a White House roundtable on college sports that he was hosting.

“The amount of money being spent and lost by otherwise very successful schools is astounding, just in a short period of time,” Trump said. “It’s only going to get worse.

“It’s crazy,” Trump said. “Young people are being signed, 17-year-old quarterbacks for $12 million, 13 million, 14 million.”

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“We have a seven-year freshman,” he said. “We’re seeing things that we’ve never seen before. We have college players that don’t want to go to the NFL because they’re making more money in college, right?”

“A lot of really bad things are happening, but basic questions like who is eligible to play are now virtually unregulated and decided randomly by judges rather than by reasonable, agreed-upon rules that could be very simple and very simply drawn,” he said.

“So this has grown into a major challenge.”

Critics of the NIL compensation system in college sports say that it undercuts the finances of schools and their educational mandate.


Iran war prediction market bets draw heat: ‘Insane this is legal’


Prediction markets are facing renewed scrutiny from federal lawmakers after wagers about the fate of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the Saturday bombardment of Iran.

“It’s insane this is legal,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., in a post to X, referring to another post highlighting people who had made money on the invasion.

“People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”

Murphy’s post replied to a tweet that said six “suspected insiders” made $1.2 million betting on a U.S. strike on Iran on the prediction site Polymarket.

CNBC has reached out to Murphy’s office for more details on his proposal.

Murphy’s criticism comes a week after six other Democratic senators, led by Adam Schiff of California, told the Commodity Futures Trading Commission they had serious concerns with prediction market contracts “that incentivize physical injury or death,” saying the contracts “present dangerous national security risks.”

The letter pointed to recent contracts on Polymarket, including ones related to the possible explosion of a NASA spaceship launch, the fate of Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Gambling on war and death doesn’t just present national security risks, it also raises serious concerns about potential insider trading — presenting unscrupulous government officials with a chance to profit off the new war in Iran,” Schiff said in a post on X on Monday.

“These contracts are immoral. @CFTC can and must ban them.”

Other lawmakers, too, have expressed concern about prediction markets after the invasion. Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., said on X that “[p]rediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action.”

“We need answers, transparency, and oversight,” Levin said.

The controversy comes as a new trade group led by President Donald Trump’s former acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, Gambling Is Not Investing, launched to push tighter guardrails on prediction markets.

Gambling Is Not Investing takes aim at another key market in the prediction space, markets on sports.

Many states in recent years have labored to pass sports betting laws, tapping massive tax revenues from wagers to balance their budgets. Some states now argue that prediction markets, which are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and often offer betting lines on outcomes in sporting events, are encroaching on their regulated sportsbooks.

“Gambling products — regardless of what you call them — must follow established state and tribal laws,” Mulvaney said.

“Rebranding sports wagering as ‘trading’ or ‘investing’ or ‘predicting’ misleads consumers, undermines responsible gaming protections, and weakens the state and tribal systems built to protect the public and fund vital community services.”

The prediction market Kalshi, in a comment to CNBC, said it “doesn’t allow markets directly tied to death,” regarding betting lines over whether Khamenei would be out of power that have received criticism. The company issued refunds on the market, citing regulations barring wagers on death.

“We included every precaution on this market to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death,” the company said. “Our rules were clear from the beginning, we never changed them, and we settled based on the rules. We reimbursed all fees and net losses because we thought the UX could have been clearer for users.”

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour also responded to Murphy directly in a separate post, saying “regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets.”

“The market you’re posting is unregulated and offshore,” Mansour said.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.