Oil prices rise as Trump reaffirms Tuesday deadline for bombarding Iran’s power plants, bridges


A drone view of oil storage containers and facilities of the TotalEnergies refinery in the Leuna Chemical Complex, in Leuna, Germany, March 17, 2026.

Annegret Hilse | Reuters

Oil prices edged higher after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to attack Iran’s civil infrastructure, warning that the nation will be “taken out in one night,” if the Islamic Republic’s leadership failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May were up 0.93% at $113.46 per barrel as of 8:45 p.m. ET. Brent crude for June delivery gained about 0.54% to $110.36 per barrel.

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Oil prices rise as Trump reaffirms Tuesday deadline for bombarding Iran’s power plants, bridges

Brent crude prices

On Monday, Trump repeated his threat that the U.S. will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, while also signaling that Iranian leadership was negotiating in earnest.

The closure of the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman has led to a supply shock, sending prices for crude, jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline soaring since the war broke out on Feb. 28.

“They have ’til tomorrow,” the president said. “Now we’ll see what happens. I can tell you, they are negotiating, we think in good faith, we’re going to find out. We’re getting the help of some incredible countries that want this to be ended, because it affects them also.”

Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran were discussing a framework plan to end their 5-week-old conflict, as Tehran has pushed back against Trump’s pressure to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would allow traffic to start flowing again through the vital energy artery.

Iran has rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal, presenting its own 10-point plan, according to Axios, including a permanent end to hostilities in the region, rather than a temporary ceasefire, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction.

But the changes for a ceasefire deal to be reached before the deadline remained slim, according to the report.

Trump responded to the proposal, saying that “They made a … significant proposal. Not good enough, but they have made a very significant step. We will see what happens.”

“As the deadline approaches, [Trump] wants to apply even more pressure to get them across the finish line,” Brain Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is slowly resuming, with 8 tankers transiting Monday, up from the average of fewer than 2 transits per day in March, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That, however, is a fraction of the pre-war levels with an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil and products transiting per day via the strait in 2025.

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Trump says U.S. will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to ‘immediately’ reopen Hormuz Strait


Satellite view of Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Iran.

Gallo Images | Gallo Images | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. will “completely” obliterate Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately” reopened and a peace deal is not reached “shortly.”

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

“Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.””

Trump says U.S. will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to ‘immediately’ reopen Hormuz Strait

His comments come as the Iran war enters its fifth week and as the Trump administration weighs sending in ground forces to seize Kharg Island, a major fuel hub which serves as the centerpiece for Iran’s oil industry.

It is estimated that around 90% of the country’s crude exports pass through it before tankers then travel through the Strait of Hormuz. The island is also said to have a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Iran has not yet commented on Trump’s latest remarks. Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry reportedly said Iran deemed proposals presented in a 15-point plan from the U.S. as “excessive and unreasonable.” Iran’s leaders have denied being in direct talks with the U.S.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the maritime corridor, with several incidents reported in recent weeks.

Trump said last week that he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days, which pushed the deadline to April 6.

Oil prices traded higher on Monday, with international benchmark Brent crude on track to notch its steepest monthly rise on record.

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Analysis: A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.


Analysis: A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.

The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within roughly the next one to three weeks. Even then, enough damage may have been done already to leave energy and many other prices higher for longer. 

These risks haven’t been clearly reflected in some widely followed markets, including stocks broadly and the benchmark Brent crude price. Stopgap measures to soften the blow of the oil cutoff have kept crude prices relatively low in the U.S. and European markets. But when those measures lose their effectiveness in early-to-mid April, analysts warn there will be little the U.S. or other governments can do to keep energy prices from rising dramatically. 

Iran has attacked civilian ships and energy infrastructure in its neighborhood, causing traffic in the narrow Strait of Hormuz to fall to a standstill. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally moves through the approximately 100-mile waterway, which borders Iran. Some oil has been rerouted through pipelines, but they can only carry so much. The U.S. and others are releasing 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves — the biggest release on record — and the U.S. has temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil to give the market breathing room.

Satellite image shows smoke rising from UAE’s Fujairah port, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 15, 2026.

Nasa Worldview | Via Reuters

The White House says it believes the president’s military strategy will soon end the Iranian threat, allowing the price worries to fade.

But all agree there is no substitute for reopening the strait. Oil industry executives have in the past few days sketched out the risk of growing disruption from the war. 

Read more CNBC politics coverage

“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday at S&P Global’s CERAWeek in Houston. Shell CEO Wael Sawan echoed him a few days later at the annual gathering of industry heavyweights. Disruptions that started in South Asia have “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said Wednesday.

The talk of the conference was the difference between so-called paper and physical prices, said Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Texas at Austin. 

Paper prices vs. physical prices

Paper prices reflect trading in financial markets and are often the headline oil prices discussed in the press. They have generally remained lower than prices for physical delivery of oil, especially in Asia, which is the main buyer of crude from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures prices rose 36% from Feb. 27, the last day of trading before the started, through March 27, when they traded above $113 a barrel. But the Dubai price, which tracks physical delivery from certain Middle East sellers, is up 76%, more than twice the paper price, at $126. That price has been especially volatile lately. 

One reason paper prices are lower is they have regularly fallen in reaction to suggestions by President Donald Trump that the war could soon end or otherwise de-escalate. Traders call that “jawboning.” 

“In that sense it’s working, it’s preventing a bigger paper-market reaction,” Cahill said of Trump’s rhetoric. “But the reality of the physical market disruption is really hard to ignore.”

That disruption isn’t limited to oil and its effects on U.S. gas prices. Prices for liquified natural gas are also a worry. LNG prices in Japan and South Korea are up 48%. Costs of jet fuel are spiraling, along with more esoteric commodities such as helium. Without relief, these prices could continue to rise, driving up global inflation and eating at growth.

Market deterioration

Markets have deteriorated over the past few days. The S&P 500 rose half a percent on Tuesday amid optimism that Trump would delay a plan to attack Iranian energy infrastructure, but proceeded to fall 3.4% from Wednesday through Friday’s close. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has followed a similar trajectory. It has now risen by roughly a half-point over the course of the war to 4.4%, reflecting worries about inflation and the prospect that the Fed may not cut interest rates as it has hoped to do.

The looming possibility of physical supply shortages in the oil market appears to be blunting the effect of Trump’s jawboning. Financial markets reflect the reality that Trump has often managed to avoid worst-case scenarios, including when he attacked Iran’s nuclear program in June. Oil futures then spiked but quickly fell once it was clear the war wouldn’t spread. 

Trump is now moving thousands of new troops to the region. He could use them to attack Iran’s Kharg Island oil-export facility, cutting off a vital revenue source for the regime and forcing it to accept a negotiated reopening of the strait. He could attempt to retake the strait militarily. The regime could simply collapse, or any number of outcomes that would restore the flow of energy.

Futures markets reflect that those relatively optimistic possibilities are in play. But they may not be able to do so forever. 

Geopolitical strategist Marko Papic with markets advisory firm BCA Research pulled together an estimate of the sources of supply and their blockages. For now through roughly April 19, Papic estimates the world has lost 4.5-5 million barrels a day of oil from the war, amounting to about 5% of global supply. But, he writes in a research note sent out this week, “that number will double by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply.”

The world will hit an oil cliff in mid-April, in Papic’s estimation, because supplies from the strategic petroleum reserve as well as Russian and Iranian oil exempted from sanctions will run out. There is no substitute for pumping oil from the ground and sending it directly to clients. 

But the ability of the oil industry to return to delivering its product is also in question. Middle East producers don’t have enough storage for all the oil they are pumping but can’t ship, so they have had to shut in production, temporarily closing wells. Reversing that will take time. 

Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said at the energy conference it could take three to four months to return to full production once the war ends. 

That end could come soon if Trump gets his way.

“The glimmers of light at the beginning of the tunnel are becoming more bright and more clear,” a White House official said on condition of anonymity. The official disputed the oil industry’s skepticism about the outlook. 

“I think the oil execs aren’t geopolitical masterminds,” the official said. The administration is making progress militarily, the official said, and still has more levers it can pull to get energy to the market. 

“We’re also seeing developments with Russia stepping in to expand its exports to fill that gap, so there’s still breathing room here,” the official said. 

That breathing room is real, but it appears to be quickly diminishing. Every day that Iran is willing and able to threaten shipping in the strait puts the world closer to serious economic damage.

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Trump tells CNBC ‘we are very intent on making a deal’ with Iran


Trump tells CNBC ‘we are very intent on making a deal’ with Iran

President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday that, following talks with Iranian authorities, he ordered the U.S. military to postpone strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

He told CNBC’s Joe Kernen in a phone call shortly after the post that “we are very intent on making a deal with Iran.”

However, Iranian state media, citing an unnamed “senior security official” in a post on Telegram disputed Trump’s description of conversations, saying direct or indirect talks have not taken place between Washington and Tehran.

“There is been no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this kind of psychological warfare, neither the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions nor will there be peace in the energy markets,” state media reported the official as saying.

Trump countered later Monday morning that the U.S. and Iran “have had very, very strong talks” yielding “major points of agreement,” including that Tehran will “never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump, speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, said his son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff participated in those talks Sunday evening with “a top person” in Iran.

“They want, very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal too,” he said. “We’re going to get together today by, probably, phone, because it’s … very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we’ll, at some point, very, very soon, meet.”

Trump said that if the five-day halt in strikes goes well, the parties could end up “settling this.”

“Otherwise, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out,” he said.

The president also said that he believes Israel will be “very happy” with the progress made with Iran so far.

He added that the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened very soon, if this works.”

Asked who would control the strait, Trump said it might be “jointly controlled” by himself and “whoever the ayatollah is,” suggesting that such a move would come as part of a “very serious form of regime change.”

President Trump: Iran wants to make a deal

In his Truth Social post earlier Monday, Trump said that the U.S. and Iran had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.”

The U.S. president said these talks would continue through the week. It was not immediately clear who participated in the talks or when and where they were held.

U.S. stock futures rallied, the dollar fell against other major currencies, and oil prices tumbled on the news.

Speaking with Kernen, Trump said discussions with Iranian authorities had been very intense and that he remains hopeful something very substantive can be achieved.

The U.S. president also insisted on the same call that what is unfolding in Iran can be described as regime change, Kernen reported.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for additional information about the purported talks, and did not immediately respond to Iran’s claim that no such negotiations are underway.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport on March 23, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Roberto Schmidt | Getty Images

The U.S. president on Saturday issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iran’s power plants.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

The deadline had been due to expire on Monday evening in Washington.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Iranian Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf had said critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent weeks.

The Iran war has stoked global inflation fears and created what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.

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Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz


Fire and plumes of smoke rise from an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Saturday, March 14, 2026.

Altaf Qadri | AP

A fresh wave of attacks on the United Arab Emirates’ energy infrastructure has ramped up concerns over prolonged supply disruptions amid the Iran war.

It comes after the world’s largest ultra-sour gas development was struck by a drone, a fire broke out in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, and another tanker was hit near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE also reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown following a fire caused by an Iranian drone attack hitting a fuel tank.

Operations at the UAE’s massive Shah gas field remained suspended on Tuesday following a drone attack, which caused a fire at the facility, according to Abu Dhabi authorities. No injuries were reported from the incident.

The Shah gas field is located 180 kilometers southwest of Abu Dhabi and is operated by a joint venture between ADNOC and Occidental Petroleum Corp. It has the capacity to produce 1.28 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day and 4.2 million tons of sulfur per year.

Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz

Separately, a drone attack sparked a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a critically important hub for the UAE’s crude exports and bunkering operations. The Fujairah government’s media office said on Tuesday that no casualties were reported.

Fujairah, one of the world’s top hubs for storing crude and fuels, is located on the eastern seaboard of the UAE and serves as a key shipping hub for the wider region.

It has faced repeated attacks in recent weeks, underlining the vulnerability of the UAE’s only export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy choke points, has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the maritime corridor.

Spanning around 248 miles from onshore oil facilities at Habshan to Fujairah, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), or the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline, is estimated to handle 1.5 million barrels per day, with a reported total capacity of close to 1.8 million barrels per day.

Oil prices

A tanker was also struck while at anchor by an unknown projectile about 23 nautical miles east of the UAE’s Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, according to an update published Monday from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center.

The incident caused minor structural damage, with no injuries to the crew and no environmental impact was reported, the UKMTO said.

The latest report comes after six vessels sustained damage in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman last week as Iran warned oil prices could climb to $200 a barrel.

A smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16, 2026. Flights were gradually resuming at Dubai airport on March 16, previously the world’s busiest for international flights, the airport operator said, after a “drone-related incident” sparked a fuel tank fire nearby, as Iran kept up its Gulf attacks.

– | Afp | Getty Images

Oil prices were higher on Tuesday as energy market participants closely monitored ongoing supply disruptions.

International Brent crude futures with May delivery advanced 2.2% at $102.36 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery rose 2.2% at $95.55.

Prices have surged about 40% during the U.S.-Iran war, reaching their highest levels since 2022, as shipping through the Strait has been severely disrupted. Brent closed above $100 for the first time in four years last week.

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CNBC Daily Open: Risk-off trade back on for oil


Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle, and his latest round with reporters in the Oval Office has yielded more headlines and market moves this morning. It’s only Tuesday and already it’s been a volatile week for oil, which remains the epicenter of trading action.

Market participants — as well as us journalists — will need to stay on their toes to keep up with developments.

What you need to know today

Oil prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday as uncertainty lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump suggested Monday that the coalition was not fully in place as he urged other countries to get involved.

He voiced his frustrations by saying “some are very enthusiastic, and some are less than enthusiastic … and I assume some will not do it.”

Washington, meanwhile, is looking to postpone a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid the conflict with Iran. During a press conference in the Oval Office, he said, “There’s no tricks to it either. It’s very simple. We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

Back in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown, as Iran continued missile and drone attacks. The UAE’s Defense Ministry said that air defenses have intercepted more than 300 ballistic missiles and 1,600 drones so far.

The volatility has led to a hike in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank raised its benchmark policy rate for a second consecutive time, citing concerns over the inflation risk posed by the war in Iran.

In stock markets, Asia-Pacific equities rose Tuesday as auto and tech stocks gained after Nvidia announced robust revenue forecast for its key chips, and partnerships with carmakers from the region. European and U.S. futures are lacking direction in early trade.

— Leonie Kidd

And finally…

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Why traders are getting nervous about Iran’s $200 oil warning as the conflict drags on



Pete Hegseth on Strait of Hormuz: ‘Don’t need to worry about it’


U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth holds a briefing amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 2, 2026.

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday brushed aside concerns that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz because of the Iran war, which has spiked oil prices, would continue being a problem for the U.S. and the world for much longer.

Iran has been “exercising sheer desperation in the Straits of Hormuz,” Hegseth said at a Pentagon press briefing.

“We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it,” he said.

The trading price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on Friday morning was around $93 per barrel. A day before the war began on Feb. 28, a barrel of WTI was selling for about $67.

Hegseth criticized media reports that claimed that before attacking Iran, the United States military lacked a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoint.

“Of course, for decades, Iran has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is always what they do, hold the strait hostage,” he said.

“We planned for it. We recognize it,” Hegseth told a reporter who asked him why the Pentagon had not planned for the strait being choked off to traffic.

“Ultimately, we want to do it sequentially in the way that makes the most sense for what we want to achieve.”

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Neither Hegseth nor Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine said how the U.S. would open up the strait to the traffic of oil tankers and other ships.

On Thursday morning, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that the U.S. Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, hours later, told Sky News that the U.S. Navy, and possibly an international coalition, would begin escorting ships through the strait as soon as “militarily possible.”

Asked how soon the Strait of Hormuz would be open to traffic, Hegseth said Friday, “The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping.”

“We have a plan for every option here,” he said. “We’re working with our interagency partners. That’s not a strait we’re going to allow to remain contested or a lack of flow of international goods.”

Caine, when asked about removing mines from the Strait of Hormuz laid by Iran, said, “We retain a range of options to solve a whole variety of problems.”

Hegseth predicted, again, that “soon and very soon, all of Iran’s defense companies will be destroyed.” He said that as of two days ago, every company that builds components of Iran’s ballistic missiles “has been functionally defeated.”

The Defense secretary speculated that Iran’s “new so-called, not-so-supreme leader,” Mojtaba Khamenei, “is wounded and likely disfigured.”

“He put out a statement yesterday, a weak one, actually, but there was no voice and there was no video,” Hegseth said.

Hegseth and Caine’s vagueness in offering either details of a possible solution to the strait’s closure, or a timeline for such a solution came as RBC Capital Markets, in a note on Friday, said, “There is significant skepticism that a robust US Navy tanker escort service will be operational soon due to capacity constraints as well as the fact that Iran’s enhanced military capabilities will pose a bigger challenge than the US faced during the Tanker Wars of the 1980s.”

The note also said that a $20 billion insurance promoted by the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., to encourage oil tankers and other commercial vessels to begin ffic to begin transiting the straight “similarly … is not generating much enthusiasm as it only covers the roughly 22 miles of sea lanes in the Strait, not the surrounding waterways, and offers neither casualty nor environmental coverage.”

“Above all, we are struck by the fact that a number of Washington-based security analysts seem to be working with longer-duration timelines than market participants residing outside the Beltway,” RBS’s Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research, wrote.

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‘Sky is the limit’: Analysts warn oil prices could surge further


Women members of Iran’s Red Crescent society stand near smoke plumes from an ongoing fire following an overnight airstrike on the Shahran oil refinery in northwestern Tehran on March 8, 2026.

– | Afp | Getty Images

Analysts warned on Monday that there was no precedent for the surging price of oil, as the Middle East crisis deepens fears of prolonged production shut-ins and disruption to shipments through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices were on track for their biggest-ever jump in a single day on Monday, before significantly paring gains, following a fresh wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran over the weekend. Oil depots were among the targets.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 12.8% higher at $104.53 per barrel on Monday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen nearly 12% higher at $101.76.

Brent futures had climbed as high as $119.5 per barrel earlier in the trading day, while WTI hit a session high of $119.48.

Neil Atkinson, former head of oil at the International Energy Agency, said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is something energy markets had never seen before. Unless something changes very soon “we are in a potentially game-changing and unprecedented energy crisis,” he told CNBC on Monday.

‘Sky is the limit’: Analysts warn oil prices could surge further

Countries across the oil-rich Middle East region have started to scale back crude output. Iraq and Kuwait have already begun to shut-in production, with analysts warning that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia may also be vulnerable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a sustained period.

“Though there are oil stocks around the world, the point is that if this closure of the Strait persists, those oil stocks if they are deployed will be depleted and we are going to be in a situation where, with the oil production actually shut in, in Iraq and possibly in Kuwait and maybe even in time in Saudi Arabia, that we are going to be in a crisis the likes of which we have never seen before,” Atkinson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

Oil prices rise as Trump reaffirms Tuesday deadline for bombarding Iran’s power plants, bridges

Brent crude futures over one day.

Asked what this could mean for oil prices, Atkinson replied: “Sorry, we are getting into the realms of educated guesswork here. I mean, there is no precedent for this. The sky is the limit.”

Typically, about 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping traffic has all but halted through this key maritime corridor since the war started.

G7 emergency meeting

Oil prices came off their session highs on Monday shortly after the Financial Times reported that finance ministers from G7 economies would hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the IEA.

The U.K.’s Treasury and French government confirmed to CNBC that the call would take place on Monday.

Fire breaks out at the Shahran oil depot after U.S. and Israeli attacks, leaving numerous fuel tankers and vehicles in the area unusable in Tehran, Iran, on March 8, 2026.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that it had been “consensus last week, and to a certain extent still today,” that everyone but Russia had “an interest in normal traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz.”

He added the consensus had been that there was “abundant oil on the water and some strategic reserves to cover any short-term gap.” Goodspeed said he was skeptical of this view as the conflict enters its second week.

“When I think of the probability distribution of possible outcomes here, it seems to me there are many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer than there are scenarios in which normal traffic resumes,” Goodspeed said.

Production shut-ins

Analysts at Societe Generale, meanwhile, warned that prolonged production shut-ins from Middle East countries “materially increase” the risk of restart complications.

“The UAE is likely the next producer at risk of shutting in output, potentially within the next five to seven days,” the analysts said in a research note published Monday.

“Qatar is also vulnerable, though its oil volumes are modest relative to its LNG exposure. Saudi Arabia faces less immediate risk but shut ins would become plausible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a further two to three weeks,” they added.

CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

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Iran war threatens to scramble the ‘affordability’ midterm


U.S. President Donald Trump points his finger as he arrives to deliver remarks on the U.S. economy and affordability at the Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, U.S. December 9, 2025.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

November’s midterm was always supposed to be about affordability. Then, the bombs began falling in Iran.

The expanding U.S. war in the Middle East threatens to scramble the cost-of-living narrative that has so far defined the contest for control of Congress. The election, now less than eight months away, will determine whether President Donald Trump retains his iron grip on Washington or spends his last two years in office fending off Democratic congressional majorities.

Both parties have sought to capitalize on kitchen-table issues, as Americans struggle to keep up with the rising costs of ordinary goods and services. The war in Iran now threatens to exacerbate those concerns — and Democrats are seizing on the opportunity to pillory Trump and Republicans for beginning a conflict that could make life even more expensive for ordinary Americans.

“Because there was no plan going in, I think there will be lots of things that are unforeseen consequences of this,” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview with CNBC. “I mean you saw how much gas has gone up in a day, oil futures have gone up, there are going to be a lot of knock-on effects.”

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Some of those knock-on effects have already been evident. U.S. crude oil has jumped past $90 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the war broke out. The global market index Brent has skyrocketed to more than $90 per barrel. That’s caused gas prices to spike to about $3.38 per gallon, according to a national average from Gasbuddy, up more than 35 cents from the week before the war.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, was quick to point out in an interview that liquefied natural gas prices have also spiked. Though U.S. increases have been modest so far, global LNG supply has been squeezed by a shutdown in Qatar — one of the world’s top LNG-producing countries. Natural gas is the largest electricity generator in the U.S., which is critical as the booming data center industry stresses the electric grid and increases utility costs.

“I think what American families have been feeling most acutely for the past year-plus is their energy bills, their utility bills rising,” Huffman said. “A big part of the utility bill increase is that natural gas is getting more and more expensive … a lot of our effort has been pushed into LNG exports instead of strategies that would lower bills for American consumers. That problem is only more amplified by this conflict.”

Wrapping up the Iran war

Some Republicans are banking on the conflict in Iran wrapping up quickly to mitigate economic damage. Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., a member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said taming energy prices will depend on the U.S. destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and nuclear capacity.

“Once we’ve done that, I think you’ll see oil prices start back down because you won’t have that interruption in the Arabian Gulf,” Hoeven said. “But the real key is that we achieve our objectives and then you have oil continue to come out of the Gulf.”

“I’m talking relatively shorter term, I’m talking weeks, not months, and I think that’s going to be the key in terms of oil prices,” he said.

But a quick operation in Iran is far from certain, and any extended conflict could create an election-year quagmire for Republicans, said Brittany Martinez, executive director at Principles First and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

“If energy prices rise or markets stay volatile, affordability becomes a harder message for Republicans to carry cleanly,” Martinez said. “Republicans will argue that projecting strength abroad prevents greater instability, while Democrats will try to link any sustained price increases to foreign policy decisions. The real question is whether this turns into a prolonged conflict that voters feel in their household budgets.”

Many believe the military intervention in Iran has the potential to drag on, including Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a national security advisor in the Obama White House.

“This administration doesn’t seem to think about this at all,” Kim said when asked about a potential power vacuum keeping the U.S. in the region longer. “The intelligence community has done a whole range of assessments that very much keep me up at night, and the fact that this White House, I assume, read the same things I read and still went through with this, I just find that to be absolutely reckless.”

Iran offensive unpopular with voters

Complicating matters more for the GOP is that the war in Iran is unpopular. A CNN poll released March 2 found that nearly 60% of those surveyed disapproved of the U.S. taking military action in Iran. That comes as Trump’s economic approval remains underwater: A Fox News poll released March 4 found that 61% of voters disapproved of Trump’s job on the economy.

“We don’t see it as an opportunity, but I do think it’s our responsibility to tell the American people exactly the decision that Donald Trump is making,” said House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif. “He’s sending billions of our tax dollars to the Middle East for another war while he’s kicking people off of healthcare and … eliminating nutrition programs.”

Rep. Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican seeking reelection in a district Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has labeled a “toss up,” said he is not concerned the war could drown out the GOP’s affordability message. He pointed to the sprawling tax and spending bill that was signed into law last year, increased domestic energy production, and housing legislation that advanced out of the House last month as examples of things the party will use to show action on rising costs.

War in the Middle East does not necessarily preclude Republicans from continuing to try to bring prices down, he argued.

“A more fulsome conversation would be, how do we make sure that we still deliver on affordability?” Nunn said in an interview. “I think this is the absolute right spot for us to be in.”

America First

But Trump, the “America First” president who campaigned on ending the U.S.’s foreign entanglements, risks alienating his base with his Iran offensive. Democrats see the war as evidence of what they have been telling voters about Trump all along: he does not care affordability.

“We have a president who has campaigned on ending forever wars, and he has jumped into war without justification or explanation to the American people,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “So this has been broken promise after broken promise. This has been at the expense of the needs of everyday Americans. And I do think voters will hold them accountable in November.”

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