Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., on Wednesday called for a federal probe into suspicious trading activity in oil and equity futures markets just before President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure in March.

In a letter to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig, first reported by CNBC, Torres cites reports on a series of irregular and well-timed trades in the minutes ahead of Trump calling a pause on hostilities.

“What kind of trader would make a massive trade at 6:49 a.m., 15 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement with billions of dollars at stake and without a hedge?” Torres said in an interview on Wednesday. “The only plausible answer to that question is an insider trader. Any other alternative is a statistical impossibility.”

More than $500 million in crude oil futures trades were made in the roughly 15 minutes before Trump announced the halt in strikes via Truth Social, Reuters reported last month. The New Yorker reported that in the immediate lead-up to Trump’s announcement, there was an abnormal surge in futures trading volume predicting a decline in oil prices and a rebound in equity markets.

Torres in his letter said the “occurrence may constitute one of the largest instances of insider trading in history,” and called on the SEC to open a formal investigation and, in consultation with the CFTC, obtain comprehensive trading records.

A spokesperson for the SEC on Wednesday declined to comment. The CFTC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The SEC tapped David Woodcock, a Gibson Dunn lawyer and former agency official, to be its next enforcement director, Reuters reported Wednesday.

“I have a lack of confidence in our market regulators,” Torres said in the interview. “But we have no choice but to agitate for accountability. We cannot allow the SEC and the CFTC to turn a blind eye to what may be the largest case of insider trading in history.”

This is the second time in several months that Torres — a member of the House Financial Services Committee — has raised the issue of potential insider trading around Trump administration actions.

Torres introduced legislation in January after an account on the prediction market platform Polymarket placed a well-time bet in the hours leading up to the ouster Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, earning a $400,000 payout.

The legislation would bar federal elected officials, congressional staff, political appointees and executive branch officials from buying or selling event contracts based on government policy, action or political outcomes if they have material nonpublic information. It has 42 Democratic cosponsors but is unlikely to pass in the Republican-controlled House.

Congressional Democrats in recent months have repeatedly raised concerns about the appearance of insider trading within the Trump administration, particularly on prediction markets. A group of House Democrats on Monday sent a letter to Selig questioning the CFTC’s role in regulating event bets placed on offshore prediction markets like Polymarket.

“Recent high-profile instances of alleged insider trading on prediction market platforms relating to U.S. government actions — including the military’s intervention in Venezuela and our recent attack on Iran —have fueled concern that the CFTC does not have adequate control over these fast-growing markets,” wrote the group, led by Reps. Seth Moulton and Jim McGovern, Massachusetts Democrats.

A temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparked a broad relief rally across assets on Wednesday, but experts warned that any deal concerning lasting peace will be complicated by a major trust deficit.

The ceasefire came following hastened diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan and just hours before Trump’s threatened deadline for wiping out the entire Iranian civilization, briefly pulling the region back from the brink of a massive military bombardment.

Oil prices cooled to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement, but remain far above the pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel.

While U.S. President Donald Trump said the two-week ceasefire was contingent on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials stated that safe passage through the strait would be “possible,” subject to coordination with its armed forces and “technical limitations” — caveats that may give Iran some room to define compliance on its own terms.

“This is a problem that could derail the ceasefire later this year,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, warning that the coordination requirement remains a risky ambiguity in both sides’ statements so far.

Trump may temporarily accept Iran as a gatekeeper — with U.S. midterm elections approaching and gasoline prices sharply higher than before the war — but after the election, the U.S. national security establishment will start to demand a more permanent solution,” said Gertken. “Fighting will ignite later this year, if not later this month.”

Tehran also said that its armed forces will cease defensive operations if attacks against Iran are halted. After the ceasefire came into effect at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, missiles were still launched from Iran towards Israel and several Gulf states.

The reprieve on Tuesday would allow some time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis, with their delegations expected to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

Iran is reportedly finalizing a joint maritime protocol with Oman to institutionalize coordinated management of tanker traffic through the strait, which could embed Iranian authority over the crucial energy artery into a standing bilateral agreement.

Israel agreed to suspend strikes but urged Washington to press for deeper Iranian concessions, including the surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles. In its 10-point terms, Iran requested Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program and the lifting of all sanctions.

The ceasefire will likely hold in the near term, given the economic costs accruing to the global economy from six weeks of conflict, said Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments. “Parties with vested interest in stopping the conflict and reopening the strait will double down on efforts to find a compromise,” he said.

If the truce holds and the strait reopens, the global economic damage should prove manageable, Langham added. Central banks could broadly resume their pre-conflict paths — and attention may shift from inflation to growth, if commodity prices normalize quickly, he added.

The ceasefire sparked a relief rally in markets amid repricing for a de-escalation in the conflict, but investors will watch for something more durable than a two-week pause, Geoff Yu, senior market strategist at BNY, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

“What the market is going to start pricing ahead is a first step towards further de-escalation and perhaps something more permanent,” he said, flagging that the disruption has extended beyond crude oil to commodities such as helium, critical to semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan.

The surging price of jet fuel isn’t the airline industry’s only problem. Now, it’s whether it will have enough.

Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the price of jet fuel in the U.S. has nearly doubled, going from $2.50 a gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 a gallon on April 2, with the increases even sharper in other regions. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking off supplies of both crude and refined products like jet fuel, further driving up the price.

That’s forcing airlines to consider cutting flights, especially overseas.

Carsten Spohr, CEO of Germany’s Deutsche Lufthansa, told employees in a webcast last week that the carrier is assigning teams to come up with contingency plans because of the war in the Middle East, including for drops in demand or a lack of jet fuel, a spokesman said. Those plans could include grounding some of its aircraft.

The U.S. produces a lot of jet fuel and isn’t as exposed as other regions like Europe and parts of Asia are in comparison. But aircraft fill up locally, so some U.S. airlines could face shortages on international trips.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters late last month that the carrier, which has the most service to Asia among U.S. airlines, would have to cut back its flights there. He also said it’s “not impossible” that airlines collectively would have to reduce service in that region.

He noted that as the price of jet fuel goes up, it could be more acute in parts of the U.S. that aren’t as connected by pipelines.

“There’s not enough refining capacity, and so fuel price prior to this and going forward is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” he said.

Kirby told employees earlier in March that the airline is preparing for oil to stay above $100 a barrel through 2027 and is pruning some of its flights in the near term.

“To be clear, nothing changes about our longer-term plans for aircraft deliveries or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, but there’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs,” he said in a March 20 message to employees.

Airlines overall are pruning some flights for the coming months, though they often adjust schedules throughout the year to match demand, aircraft availability or other complications.

Domestic capacity in the second quarter for U.S. carriers is up 2.1%, down from previous plans of 2.3% growth, while total capacity is set to rise 1.1%, down from 2.4% on the week ended March 20, according to a Monday report from UBS.

“We expect more capacity cuts in the coming weeks,” UBS said.

So far, airline executives have said that travel demand is strong, but the fuel strains and price spikes are a headache for carriers and passengers alike as the peak summer travel season approaches.

Fuel is generally airlines’ biggest expense after labor, and carriers are already raising airfare and fees like for checked luggage to make up for the added cost.

Investors will be listening for more insights into how the jet fuel spike could affect the industry as airline earnings kick off Wednesday with Delta Air Lines. That carrier owns a refinery, so it could benefit from jet fuel sales.

Oil prices edged higher after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to attack Iran’s civil infrastructure, warning that the nation will be “taken out in one night,” if the Islamic Republic’s leadership failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May were up 0.93% at $113.46 per barrel as of 8:45 p.m. ET. Brent crude for June delivery gained about 0.54% to $110.36 per barrel.

On Monday, Trump repeated his threat that the U.S. will destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, while also signaling that Iranian leadership was negotiating in earnest.

The closure of the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman has led to a supply shock, sending prices for crude, jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline soaring since the war broke out on Feb. 28.

“They have ’til tomorrow,” the president said. “Now we’ll see what happens. I can tell you, they are negotiating, we think in good faith, we’re going to find out. We’re getting the help of some incredible countries that want this to be ended, because it affects them also.”

Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran were discussing a framework plan to end their 5-week-old conflict, as Tehran has pushed back against Trump’s pressure to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would allow traffic to start flowing again through the vital energy artery.

Iran has rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal, presenting its own 10-point plan, according to Axios, including a permanent end to hostilities in the region, rather than a temporary ceasefire, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction.

But the changes for a ceasefire deal to be reached before the deadline remained slim, according to the report.

Trump responded to the proposal, saying that “They made a … significant proposal. Not good enough, but they have made a very significant step. We will see what happens.”

“As the deadline approaches, [Trump] wants to apply even more pressure to get them across the finish line,” Brain Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is slowly resuming, with 8 tankers transiting Monday, up from the average of fewer than 2 transits per day in March, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That, however, is a fraction of the pre-war levels with an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil and products transiting per day via the strait in 2025.

Wartime propaganda has evolved for the social media age, and Iran is now vying with the U.S. to be the world’s biggest keyboard warrior.

As the real-world bombardment in the Middle East continues and casualties mount, both sides in the month-old war are also firing off ironic, pop-culture-steeped memes on the online battlefield. Iran’s new leaders have quickly assumed an online fighting posture, amping up their memes and pointed attacks on the U.S. and Israel.

“What we’re seeing is not just a war of weapons, but it’s also a war of aesthetics,” said Nancy Snow, a professor and author who studies propaganda. “Whoever controls the meme controls the mood.”

Iran’s prime target is President Donald Trump, with state media and top officials alike relentlessly mocking and amplifying criticisms of the U.S. leader.

Top members of Iran’s parliament, its Revolutionary Guard and even its president, Masoud Pezeshkian, have sought to insult or undermine Trump in their messaging. And they’re using the world’s most popular social media platforms, such as Facebook and X, to get the word out.

Among the most striking examples: a series of seemingly AI-generated videos depicting Iranian military successes against the U.S. and Israel in a Legoesque cartoon art style.

One shows a panicked Trump ordering an airstrike after reviewing the “Epstein File” alongside Satan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Another, a rap diss track, calls Trump a “loser” and accuses him of being Netanyahu’s “puppet” over images of stock market sell-offs, missile strikes and coffins.

Those and other messages out of Iran regularly reference Jeffrey Epstein, the late notorious sex offender and former Trump friend at the center of conspiracy theories that the president launched the Iran war to distract the public from headlines about releases of files related to the Epstein investigation.

The plain intent of Iran’s messaging is not just to project defiance and counter U.S. assessments of Tehran’s military weakness, but also to undermine Trump by homing in on some of his biggest political vulnerabilities.

“Iran is blending grievance with meme culture — mixing Epstein, anti-war sentiment and pop visuals to penetrate fragmented Western audiences,” Snow said.

As for why they’re using Legos to convey their message, it may be because of their universal appeal, said Dan Butler, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis who uses the toys in his teaching.

“The same reason it works in education is the reason actors would use it for propaganda: people like Legos and will tune in to watch Lego-based films,” Butler told CNBC in an email.

“In fact if something is violent, using Legos might make people lower their defenses and also be more likely to share the material,” he said.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, has melded wartime messaging with internet culture even more literally.

In the early days of the war, official accounts shared videos splicing clips from sports, movies and video games into real footage of military strikes.

The visuals dovetail with the relentlessly bombastic and boastful rhetoric from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who have repeatedly trumpeted the “obliteration” of Iran’s military while assuring that the U.S. is rapidly nearing its objectives for victory.

But the White House officials involved in creating the videos say they have proven effective in drawing attention and connecting with young people. One of them told Politico the efforts are meant to tout U.S. troops’ heroic work “in a way that captivates an audience.”

The White House told CNBC it intends to stick with its messaging strategy.

“The legacy media wants us to apologize for highlighting the United States Military’s incredible success, but the White House will continue showcasing the many examples of Iran’s ballistic missiles, production facilities, and dreams of owning a nuclear weapon being destroyed in real time,” spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.

On the latter metric, the strategy has been a success: Four videos posted on the official White House X account on March 5 and 6 have garnered nearly 100 million impressions as of April 1.

Iran’s goal isn’t to convince or corral its own people — who are reportedly facing extended internet outages — but rather to craft a “response offensive” to undermine the U.S. globally, Stahl said.

“There’s a lot of erosion with regard to potential [U.S.] ally support for this war, and these messages from Iran are playing right into that.”

It’s not all memes and trolling. Iranian officials are also homing in on the war’s destabilizing impact on the global economy and energy prices.

On Monday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. is “in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.”

The S&P 500 ended the trading day lower while oil prices continued to rise.

Ghalibaf on Tuesday shared a CNN article on Americans struggling with the war-induced spike in U.S. gas prices.

“Sad, but this is what happens when your leaders put others ahead of hard-working and ordinary Americans. It’s not America First anymore … it’s Israel First,” he wrote.

Gasoline prices over $4 a gallon, part of an ongoing supply shock in the energy markets, might seem like a cue for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to head off inflation. At least for now, that looks like a bad bet.

Investors instead expect the central bank to hold benchmark rates steady, or even pivot back toward cuts later in the year as policymakers weigh the risk that higher energy prices will slow growth more than they fuel lasting inflation.

In market-moving remarks Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that raising rates now could be the wrong medicine for an economy already facing a softening labor backdrop and elevated recession concerns on Wall Street.

Asked whether he thought policymakers should consider rate increases here, Powell responded: “By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you’re weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate. So the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock.”

The comments come at a critical juncture for markets, which have struggled to get a handle on the Fed’s intentions amid a bevy of conflicting and perpetually shifting economic signals.

Just a few days ago, traders began to entertain the possibility that the Fed’s next move could be a hike. That mindset followed some unsettling inflation news: Import prices rose much more than expected in February, even ahead of the war-related oil spike, while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its U.S. inflation forecast dramatically, to 4.2% for 2026.

However, Powell’s comments — complete with the usual Fed qualifiers that there are potential cases for both hikes or cuts — helped bring the market back off the hawkish position. Before the war, markets had been looking for two and possibly even three cuts this year in anticipation that inflation could continue to drift back to the Fed’s 2% target and central bankers would switch their focus to supporting the labor market.

Futures prices Tuesday morning pointed to just a 2.1% chance of a rate hike by year-end, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. That’s despite headlines noting that regular unleaded gasoline had eclipsed $4 nationally at the pump and U.S. crude oil priced above $102 a barrel.

While there’s still plenty of uncertainty about where rates are headed, Wall Street commentary shifted back to expectations for cuts. To be sure, odds are still low for a reduction — about 25% — but they have climbed considerably over the past two days.

“Central bankers’ bark will be bigger than their bite” when it comes to fighting higher prices, wrote Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research at Nomura.

“Right now, it makes sense for central banks to do nothing but sound hawkish in order to help anchor inflation expectations as headline inflation spikes,” he added. “However … the pass-through to wage growth and core inflation is likely to be limited, and instead the Middle East war could quickly morph into a global growth shock.”

Indeed, concerns about the impact that the oil price spike will have on growth superseded the worries about consumer prices, echoing Powell’s worry that hiking now won’t fix energy costs and could cause more trouble later. Policymakers are worried less about the immediate hit from energy-driven inflation than the risks that higher prices could sap consumer demand and hiring.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said central bankers should fear “demand destruction” brought on by the energy shock.

“Time is not an ally of the American economy,” he wrote. “The bigger risk is what comes next: demand destruction. That’s the economic term for what happens when high prices force people and businesses to spend less. It sounds abstract, but it’s very concrete — it means fewer cars sold, fewer homes bought, fewer restaurant meals, fewer business investments, and eventually fewer jobs.”

The Fed is in a bind policy-wise, Brusuelas added: Raising rates now risks slowing economic growth further, while standing put runs the chance that the oil situation gets worse.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. will “completely” obliterate Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately” reopened and a peace deal is not reached “shortly.”

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

“Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.””

His comments come as the Iran war enters its fifth week and as the Trump administration weighs sending in ground forces to seize Kharg Island, a major fuel hub which serves as the centerpiece for Iran’s oil industry.

It is estimated that around 90% of the country’s crude exports pass through it before tankers then travel through the Strait of Hormuz. The island is also said to have a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Iran has not yet commented on Trump’s latest remarks. Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry reportedly said Iran deemed proposals presented in a 15-point plan from the U.S. as “excessive and unreasonable.” Iran’s leaders have denied being in direct talks with the U.S.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the maritime corridor, with several incidents reported in recent weeks.

Trump said last week that he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days, which pushed the deadline to April 6.

Oil prices traded higher on Monday, with international benchmark Brent crude on track to notch its steepest monthly rise on record.

The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within roughly the next one to three weeks. Even then, enough damage may have been done already to leave energy and many other prices higher for longer. 

These risks haven’t been clearly reflected in some widely followed markets, including stocks broadly and the benchmark Brent crude price. Stopgap measures to soften the blow of the oil cutoff have kept crude prices relatively low in the U.S. and European markets. But when those measures lose their effectiveness in early-to-mid April, analysts warn there will be little the U.S. or other governments can do to keep energy prices from rising dramatically. 

Iran has attacked civilian ships and energy infrastructure in its neighborhood, causing traffic in the narrow Strait of Hormuz to fall to a standstill. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally moves through the approximately 100-mile waterway, which borders Iran. Some oil has been rerouted through pipelines, but they can only carry so much. The U.S. and others are releasing 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves — the biggest release on record — and the U.S. has temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil to give the market breathing room.

The White House says it believes the president’s military strategy will soon end the Iranian threat, allowing the price worries to fade.

But all agree there is no substitute for reopening the strait. Oil industry executives have in the past few days sketched out the risk of growing disruption from the war. 

“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday at S&P Global’s CERAWeek in Houston. Shell CEO Wael Sawan echoed him a few days later at the annual gathering of industry heavyweights. Disruptions that started in South Asia have “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said Wednesday.

The talk of the conference was the difference between so-called paper and physical prices, said Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Texas at Austin. 

Paper prices reflect trading in financial markets and are often the headline oil prices discussed in the press. They have generally remained lower than prices for physical delivery of oil, especially in Asia, which is the main buyer of crude from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures prices rose 36% from Feb. 27, the last day of trading before the started, through March 27, when they traded above $113 a barrel. But the Dubai price, which tracks physical delivery from certain Middle East sellers, is up 76%, more than twice the paper price, at $126. That price has been especially volatile lately. 

One reason paper prices are lower is they have regularly fallen in reaction to suggestions by President Donald Trump that the war could soon end or otherwise de-escalate. Traders call that “jawboning.” 

The looming possibility of physical supply shortages in the oil market appears to be blunting the effect of Trump’s jawboning. Financial markets reflect the reality that Trump has often managed to avoid worst-case scenarios, including when he attacked Iran’s nuclear program in June. Oil futures then spiked but quickly fell once it was clear the war wouldn’t spread. 

President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday that, following talks with Iranian authorities, he ordered the U.S. military to postpone strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

He told CNBC’s Joe Kernen in a phone call shortly after the post that “we are very intent on making a deal with Iran.”

However, Iranian state media, citing an unnamed “senior security official” in a post on Telegram disputed Trump’s description of conversations, saying direct or indirect talks have not taken place between Washington and Tehran.

“There is been no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this kind of psychological warfare, neither the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions nor will there be peace in the energy markets,” state media reported the official as saying.

Trump countered later Monday morning that the U.S. and Iran “have had very, very strong talks” yielding “major points of agreement,” including that Tehran will “never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump, speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, said his son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff participated in those talks Sunday evening with “a top person” in Iran.

“They want, very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal too,” he said. “We’re going to get together today by, probably, phone, because it’s … very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we’ll, at some point, very, very soon, meet.”

Trump said that if the five-day halt in strikes goes well, the parties could end up “settling this.”

“Otherwise, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out,” he said.

The president also said that he believes Israel will be “very happy” with the progress made with Iran so far.

He added that the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened very soon, if this works.”

Asked who would control the strait, Trump said it might be “jointly controlled” by himself and “whoever the ayatollah is,” suggesting that such a move would come as part of a “very serious form of regime change.”

In his Truth Social post earlier Monday, Trump said that the U.S. and Iran had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.”

The U.S. president said these talks would continue through the week. It was not immediately clear who participated in the talks or when and where they were held.

U.S. stock futures rallied, the dollar fell against other major currencies, and oil prices tumbled on the news.

Speaking with Kernen, Trump said discussions with Iranian authorities had been very intense and that he remains hopeful something very substantive can be achieved.

The U.S. president also insisted on the same call that what is unfolding in Iran can be described as regime change, Kernen reported.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for additional information about the purported talks, and did not immediately respond to Iran’s claim that no such negotiations are underway.

The U.S. president on Saturday issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iran’s power plants.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

The deadline had been due to expire on Monday evening in Washington.

Iranian Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf had said critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent weeks.

The Iran war has stoked global inflation fears and created what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.

The head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged since the Iran war began, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Australia’s capital, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said damage to oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines across the Middle East would take some time to repair.

His comments come as market participants closely monitor threats from the U.S. and Iran over energy facilities as the sprawling regional conflict enters its fourth week.

The Iran war has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, creating what the IEA says is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also been reduced by roughly 20% since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Birol said the fallout from the Iran war is equivalent to the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis “put together.”

He added: “And, if I may, not only oil and gas. Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium. Their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

Iran’s Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf responded, saying that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Given that shipping has virtually ground to a halt in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, the IEA’s Birol said the reopening of the waterway was the “single most important” solution to the global energy crisis.

He singled out Asia as being at the forefront of the Iran war energy shock and said the IEA was prepared to follow-up its historic release of 400 million barrels of oil to the market on March 11.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Birol said.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.