Asset management giant BlackRock raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop for domestic equities.

The firm, which manages $14 trillion for clients, said in its weekly market note that it raised the rating a notch to overweight from neutral.

Developments in the war had made BlackRock cautious on domestic stocks. But it said prospects for a lasting ceasefire now have strategists believing that the impacts won’t be major.

“We saw two signposts that would lead us to re-up risk after reducing it a few weeks ago. First, tangible evidence of actions that would reopen flows through the Strait of Hormuz. And second, visibility on the lingering macro impact being contained,” the firm said. “This comes as expectations for corporate earnings have climbed for both the U.S. and [emerging markets] for 2026 – even since the conflict began on Feb. 28.”

Moreover, the BlackRock strategists said “the threshold for the U.S. and Iran to go back to war is high,” further limiting potential damage.

At the same time, prospects for corporate profits appear bright.

With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase in the first quarter, according to FactSet. If historical beat rates hold, that would rise to 19%, the forecasting firm said.

Moreover, technology profits are expected to grow 45% this year, yet the sector has seen only a marginal gain this year.

BlackRock said that has put the valuation of information technology against the other 10 S&P 500 sectors at its lowest since mid-2020.

“We re-up risk in the U.S. and EM due to strong corporate earnings expectations and limited accrued damage to global growth,” the strategists said. “We focus on profit margins this Q1 U.S. earnings season and still favor thematic opportunities like defense.”

The two regions are the only overweights BlackRock has in its equity portfolio.

Novo Nordisk has dropped its legal case against telehealth provider Hims & Hers over patent infringement, after the two companies agreed Hims would sell Novo’s branded medicines through its platform. 

“We have decided to drop the current court proceedings and, of course, we reserve to bring that back if need be, but I don’t foresee that happening,” Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Monday.

Under the agreement, Hims will offer access to injectable and oral semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Wegovy, at the same price as other telehealth platforms, and Hims will no longer advertise compounded GLP-1 drugs on its platform or in its marketing, the companies said in statements on Monday. 

Shares of Hims soared more than 40% in morning trading while Novo’s Copenhagen-listed stock climbed 2.1%. The pan-European blue-chip index Stoxx 600 was trading 1% lower, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.

In February, Novo said it would sue Hims for what it called “mass illegal compounding” after the latter announced it would sell a copycat version of the Wegovy pill for $49, roughly $100 less than Novo sells the branded pill for through its direct-to-consumer platform NovoCare. 

Hims quickly pulled the pill after backlash from both Novo and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The FDA pledged to take “decisive steps” to restrict practises by compounding pharmacies, and referring Hims to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law.

FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said he was glad to see that Hims will stop advertising unapproved compounded drugs and instead sell FDA-approved products through the deal with Novo.

“Importantly, they will keep them affordable (no increase in price) and limit compounded GLP-1s for rare (FDA compliant) cases,” Makary wrote in a post on X.

Hims has profited hugely from selling copycat versions of the blockbuster weight-loss drug through a loophole in U.S. regulations that allows companies other than the patent holder to sell a drug if it is in shortage.

While semaglutide was in shortage in the early days of the medicine, Novo has since resolved supply restraints as it ramped up manufacturing. Hims, however, continued selling copycat versions of the drugs, arguing that its copies are “personalized” and therefore legal.

Semaglutide’s patent is protected in the U.S. until 2032.

Last year, Novo and Hims partnered to offer discounted weight loss jabs to the telehealth company’s customers. Novo ended the collaboration just two months later and said Hims used “deceptive” marketing that put patient safety at risk.

“It’s a very different situation than the last time we did this,” Doustdar told CNBC.

“Hims & Hers have agreed that upon receiving our products, they will no longer advertise, promote, market compounded products to the masses,” he said, adding that Hims has now agreed to change its business model to reserve the compounding versions “only to those rare cases where they’re needed.”

Novo now has more than 600,000 Wegovy pill scripts, Doustdar said.

Doustdar acknowledged that at the time of launching the Wegovy pill in January, there were question marks, “a bit fuelled by our competitor,” that certain food restrictions may limit the uptake of the pill.  

“Well, I have news for you, this has been absolutely not the case,” he said. “People are really interested because it’s the most efficacious pill right now in the market.”

Hims’ existing patients on compounding semaglutide “will have the opportunity to transition to FDA-approved medicines when determined clinically appropriate by their providers,” Hims said in a statement.

Speaking to CNBC’s Brandon Gomez, Hims CEO Andrew Dudum highlighted the rapidly shifting landscape for anti-obesity drugs.

“The demand will continue to accelerate with the new assortment that’s coming out, and the assortment really does serve the needs across affordability, personalization, form factor that historically, even just six months ago and 12 months ago did not exist,” he said.

Hims is also in conversation with anybody who can bring new therapies to the platform, he added, “whether that’s existing biotech or existing large drug companies.”

Zepbound-maker Eli Lilly is expected to launch a rival weight loss pill called orforglipron in the second quarter, pending FDA approval.

Global defense stocks jumped on Monday as investors reacted to a dramatic military escalation in the Middle East over the weekend.

The sector was a rare bright spot amid a broader market sell-off triggered by fears of a wider regional conflict.

Germany’s Hensoldt and Britain’s BAE Systems were among the top performers in the Stoxx 600, both up around 4%. Defense names Thales, Renk, and Leonardo rose between 4% and 1%, paring earlier gains, while the broader Stoxx 600 index fell more than 1%, touching a two-week low.

Stateside, U.S. firms Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman each rose more than 5% in premarket trading. Futures tracking the S&P 500 were down 1.1%.

With South Korean markets closed Monday, regional activity in Asia-Pacific defense sector was somewhat muted. Japan’s defense heavyweights Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and IHI rose about 3% each, while Singapore’s ST Engineering climbed 2.8%.

The moves come after the U.S. and Israel launched widespread attacks on Iran over the weekend that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ending his 36-year rule. Retaliatory strikes by Iran against U.S. bases in the Middle East killed three U.S. service members.

Prospects of an escalation also led oil prices and energy companies’ shares to surge.

“It’s very much one of uncertainty at the moment that investors are grappling with,” said Patrick O’Donnell, Chief Investment Strategist at Omnis Investments.

“Equity markets are a little bit more uncertain about just how long this is going to drag on, for the implication for both growth and inflation that it will have the longer that it goes on,” O’Donnell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

“Really, it’s a question of… what’s the duration of this conflict?”

The conflict with Iran entered a third day on Monday, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning of further American casualties and saying the conflict could last for up to four weeks. 

In June last year, the U.S. and Israel launched air strikes that damaged three Iranian nuclear sites.

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister of Sweden and co-chair of ECFR’s Council, said it was expected that Iran would strike back at the American military facilities in the Gulf region, “but now it seems like they are striking other targets across the Gulf as well.”

“That is surprising, but also highly disturbing, because, of course, the stability of the Gulf countries is important to us all, important to the global economy, important to the region,” he said.

There were plenty of reasons for investors to be on edge in the current setup for stocks even before the U.S. and Israel launched a major military campaign against Iran over the weekend.

The month of February, and midterm election years in particular, have a history of being bad for stocks. The cash drain among the mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market for years has been stressing heady market valuations, with Amazon headed back to a negative free cash flow situation and Alphabet dipping deeply into the bond market to finance its data center buildout — and it is far from alone in seeking debt market financing related to AI. The threat from AI to sectors across the market was walloping companies from software to trucking to commercial real estate as new worst-case scenarios were theorized on an almost daily basis.

All of that resulted in an S&P 500 that has gone nowhere this year, with a return of less than one-half of one percent for an index that is likely to see more volatility in the week ahead. But after three years of gains — and even before the uncertainty of a prolonged war in the Middle East and the prospect of $100 oil tipping the global economy into recession — a few months of sideways trading was not a shock to investors. They have been increasingly moving away from bonds as the primary hedge against the stock market and it’s not just gold, up another 20% this year, that has boomed. Investors have been turning to options-based exchange-traded funds in increasing numbers over the past few years as a result of fears about the sustainability of the stock market’s run combined with the need to generate income among many older Americans.

According to ETF Action founding partner Mike Akins, one of the most notable splits in the ETF world is between the heavy use of “the big box categories,” core stock and bond index funds, by institutional investors — where as much as 60-70% of ownership is institutional — versus the ownership of “non-traditional” ETFs in areas that have now grown to include many options-based ETF strategies and has been one of the biggest product development trends in recent years. There has been an estimated $170 billion invested in “synthetic income” ETFs which use options to focus on generating income, and $100 billion in “buffer” ETFs that use options to focus on downside protection — with most of the assets coming from retail investors or investment advisors for their individual investor clients, Akins said on the most recent episode of CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

According to Tidal Financial Group senior vice president of product development Aga Kuplinska, the market is in the “overlay everything” phase as issuers take any underlying asset class or strategy and layer on options for income and hedging. It’s no longer just in areas where the search for income has long been a focus, such as dividend stocks, but for areas of the market long associated more typically with the search for growth, like tech stocks. “Income has been the No. 1 selling point and will remain so going into future because the demand for yield just doesn’t go away and during uncertain market conditions the added benefit of income seems to resonate well with investors,” she said on “ETF Edge.”

While institutions have long used similar strategies, the availability of the options-based strategies in an ETF wrapper has made it more efficient for retail investors to access this approach, and Akins warned that “in some respects, with synthetic income in particular, we’ve gotten to the Wild West in terms of what we can do.”

The ETF experts said there are successful examples of fund companies generating both maximum income for investors from these strategies and those generating a more conservative level of income. In the tech stock-concentrated Nasdaq 100 synonymous with the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), for example, there are options-based ETFs that have performed well amid the tech tumult and have been a “nice solution for investors to generate income off a more volatile strategy while still getting upside,” Akins said.

Nevertheless, Kuplinska added that investors need to start from the understanding that “there is no free lunch in options income. The more income, the more upside you typically give up.”

Akins said that some of the yields on offer are so high investors need to understand what it means for a fund’s net asset value. With some ETFs indicating yields or distribution rates at almost 100%, in effect that means almost equivalent erosion of the fund’s net asset value — otherwise known as a “yield trap.” The range of yields in this growing strategic ETF niche is wide — with some ETFs targeting 5-8% and others 8-12%, as well as those verging on 100% — but it is a signal that “lots of education has to be done,” Akins said.

Kuplinska said with any derivatives-based income or hedging ETF strategy, what is taking place behind the scenes at the investment manager running the fund is very important, from regulatory and compliance protocols to the sophistication level of the trading desk. “These are incredibly difficult strategies to back test,” she said on the podcast portion of “ETF Edge.” She noted these ETFs are all subject to regulatory requirements to calculate risk on a daily basis, but she added, “Anything can be a weapon of mass destruction if not used as intended or properly.”

After the the past few years of rapid launches within this ETF category, “white space is much harder to find,” Kuplinska said. Options-based investing has “been done on everything out there,” she added. But she does think one more wave of options-based ETFs is coming and it will be less about the chase for maximum yield levels and designed more to focus on income stability and risk control. 

You can watch their conversation from the most recent “ETF Edge” above to learn more about proper use of options-based ETFs.

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