Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle, and his latest round with reporters in the Oval Office has yielded more headlines and market moves this morning. It’s only Tuesday and already it’s been a volatile week for oil, which remains the epicenter of trading action.

Market participants — as well as us journalists — will need to stay on their toes to keep up with developments.

Oil prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday as uncertainty lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump suggested Monday that the coalition was not fully in place as he urged other countries to get involved.

Energy analysts and traders said Monday that they wouldn’t be surprised if oil prices climb to as high as $200 per barrel as the sprawling Middle East crisis drags on.

U.S. President Donald Trump said his planned trip to China later this month could be delayed as Washington sought to pressure Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a renewed flashpoint in an already fragile bilateral relationship.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said he expected China to help unblock the strait before he travels to Beijing for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which had been scheduled for March 31 to April 2.

Trump added that the two weeks to the meeting were a “long time” and that Washington wanted clarity before then. “We may delay,” Trump told the FT, without elaborating on timing.

The remarks came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Paris for talks about the planned summit. Beijing has yet to confirm the dates and typically announces such plans closer to their scheduled start.

The visit would be the first for a U.S. president since Trump’s last trip during his first term in 2017. It also comes five months after the two leaders met in the South Korean city of Busan, where they agreed to a one-year truce in a trade war that had seen tit-for-tat tariffs briefly soar to triple-digit levels last year.

Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi said earlier this month that the agenda for the exchange was already “on the table.”

Trump said Sunday aboard Air Force One that China sourced about 90% of its oil through the strait, framing Beijing’s cooperation on Hormuz as a matter of self-interest. The president has appealed to several European and Asian countries, including China, to help open up the chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passes.

However, the numbers suggest Beijing may be more insulated from the closure than Trump’s comments implied.

China has spent the past two decades diversifying its energy sources and building strategic reserves to cushion the blow of any prolonged disruption.

Seaborne oil imports through the strait now account for less than half of China’s total oil shipments, according to Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations. Nomura also estimated that oil flows through Hormuz represent just 6.6% of China’s total energy consumption.

Satellite imagery tracked by maritime research firms showed that Iran has continued to ship large amounts of crude oil to China since the war broke out late last month.

Both sides appeared to increase pressure ahead of the high-stakes summit in Beijing. The U.S. launched trade investigations into a broad swath of countries over alleged excess capacity and failures to address forced labour.

In a statement Monday, China’s commerce ministry said the Trump administration had “once again abused the Section 301 investigation process to override domestic law over international rules,” calling the probes “extremely unilateral, arbitrary and discriminatory.”

Beijing said it had formally lodged representations with Washington against the investigations. “We urge the U.S. side to immediately correct its wrong practices and meet China halfway,” a ministry spokesperson said, calling for dialogue and negotiated solutions.

The ministry said it would monitor the progress of the investigations closely and take unspecified measures to defend China’s interests.

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

Countries around the world have scrambled to cope with the fallout of the energy shock from the Iran war, imposing measures from fuel export bans, loosening refining standards, and even getting workers to climb stairs instead of taking elevators.

This comes as the Iran war stretches into its third week, and despite U.S. President Donald Trump proclaiming that the U.S. has “won,” the effects of the war, especially on the energy market, continue to be felt.

On Thursday, China ordered refiners to stop refined fuel exports so as to mitigate potential domestic fuel shortages, according to Reuters.

Sources told the agency that the ban was issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, and includes shipments of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.

CNBC attempted to reach the NDRC for comment, but did not receive an immediate reply.

Other major countries are considering or have imposed price caps for fuel products.

On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that Tokyo was considering steps ‌to cushion the economic blow from rising fuel costs, including curbing gasoline prices.

Takaichi was quoted by Japanese media on Thursday as saying she plans to cap pump prices at an average of 170 yen ($1.07) per liter nationwide, adding that gasoline prices could potentially hit 200 yen per liter.

Tokyo also conducted a unilateral release of crude from its own stockpiles, without waiting for coordination with other nations.

Japan has been particularly badly hit by the war in Iran, as the world’s third-largest economy needs to import almost all of its energy needs.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Friday the government implemented a petroleum price ceiling.

“We have decided to set a clear price cap on supply prices to curb domestic fuel prices, which are fluctuating wildly due to the unstable international situation,” Lee said.

India also had to make some tough choices. The country told oil refineries to prioritize supplying liquified petroleum gas to the 330 million households that use it as a primary cooking fuel, over 3 million businesses that use commercial LPG cylinders.

Work-from-home orders came back in some countries after years of companies trying to coax workers back to offices after the pandemic, with Vietnam and Thailand reportedly getting employees to work remotely.

Thailand went a step further, ordering civil servants to take the stairs instead of elevators, reducing their reliance on air conditioning and telling government employees to wear short-sleeved shirts rather than suits.

The Philippines and Pakistan both instituted four-day work weeks for government workers, and Bangladesh has even shifted its calendar, bringing forward its Eid-al-fitr holiday, allowing universities to close early in a bid to save fuel.

The prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline,” is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.

The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran.

The Trump administration has discussed seizing the island, according to an Axios report on March 7, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of the discussions.

White House officials have previously said they expect oil prices to fall dramatically once Operation Epic Fury comes to an end, while White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said the president “wisely” keeps all options on the table.

Kharg Island has been thrust into the global spotlight because it is regarded as one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for around 90% of the country’s crude exports and has a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Analysts say that any attempt to attack or seize it would require a ground troop operation, which the U.S. appears reluctant to undertake. An attack would also likely prompt a sustained increase to already soaring oil prices.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously refused to rule out deploying American ground forces in Iran but said the U.S. won’t get bogged down in the country.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor and military geography and environmental security specialist at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said the location of Kharg Island is important because it sits in deep water that enables the approach of oil supertankers.

“I will put on my war hat … if the objective is to win the war (quickly), you destroy or capture Kharg immediately,” Galgano told CNBC by email, adding that any such attempt would create maximum leverage over Tehran.

Nonetheless, taking the small island would be no mean feat, Galgano said. “It would involve moving a considerable number of ground combat troops into the region … I estimate about 5,000 to take and hold the island.”

He added: “All of this of course affects global oil markets, but they are already being affected.”

Oil prices have been extremely volatile since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with several incidents reported in recent days.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded off by 1% at $99.45 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen 2% lower at $93.81.

If Kharg Island were disabled, analysts at JPMorgan said the loss of Iran’s storage buffer and the scarcity of viable export alternatives would “rapidly trigger upstream shut-ins across major southwest fields.”

“With production near 3.3 mbd and exports around 1.5 mbd, as much as half of national output could be at risk if the hub remains offline, and the previously assumed 20‑day buffer would vanish from day one,” they said in a note published Sunday.

Iran’s enormous scale and mountainous topography mean the U.S. mobilizing any conventional ground forces in the region would require hundreds of thousands of troops, according to Alex Plitsas, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

“Any use of ground forces would likely be limited to special operations forces for specific missions,” Plitsas said Wednesday in a note, without referring specifically to Iran’s Kharg Island.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday brushed aside concerns that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz because of the Iran war, which has spiked oil prices, would continue being a problem for the U.S. and the world for much longer.

Iran has been “exercising sheer desperation in the Straits of Hormuz,” Hegseth said at a Pentagon press briefing.

“We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it,” he said.

The trading price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on Friday morning was around $93 per barrel. A day before the war began on Feb. 28, a barrel of WTI was selling for about $67.

Hegseth criticized media reports that claimed that before attacking Iran, the United States military lacked a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoint.

“Of course, for decades, Iran has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is always what they do, hold the strait hostage,” he said.

“We planned for it. We recognize it,” Hegseth told a reporter who asked him why the Pentagon had not planned for the strait being choked off to traffic.

“Ultimately, we want to do it sequentially in the way that makes the most sense for what we want to achieve.”

Neither Hegseth nor Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine said how the U.S. would open up the strait to the traffic of oil tankers and other ships.

On Thursday morning, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that the U.S. Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, hours later, told Sky News that the U.S. Navy, and possibly an international coalition, would begin escorting ships through the strait as soon as “militarily possible.”

Asked how soon the Strait of Hormuz would be open to traffic, Hegseth said Friday, “The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping.”

“We have a plan for every option here,” he said. “We’re working with our interagency partners. That’s not a strait we’re going to allow to remain contested or a lack of flow of international goods.”

Caine, when asked about removing mines from the Strait of Hormuz laid by Iran, said, “We retain a range of options to solve a whole variety of problems.”

Hegseth predicted, again, that “soon and very soon, all of Iran’s defense companies will be destroyed.” He said that as of two days ago, every company that builds components of Iran’s ballistic missiles “has been functionally defeated.”

The Defense secretary speculated that Iran’s “new so-called, not-so-supreme leader,” Mojtaba Khamenei, “is wounded and likely disfigured.”

“He put out a statement yesterday, a weak one, actually, but there was no voice and there was no video,” Hegseth said.

Hegseth and Caine’s vagueness in offering either details of a possible solution to the strait’s closure, or a timeline for such a solution came as RBC Capital Markets, in a note on Friday, said, “There is significant skepticism that a robust US Navy tanker escort service will be operational soon due to capacity constraints as well as the fact that Iran’s enhanced military capabilities will pose a bigger challenge than the US faced during the Tanker Wars of the 1980s.”

The note also said that a $20 billion insurance promoted by the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., to encourage oil tankers and other commercial vessels to begin ffic to begin transiting the straight “similarly … is not generating much enthusiasm as it only covers the roughly 22 miles of sea lanes in the Strait, not the surrounding waterways, and offers neither casualty nor environmental coverage.”

“Above all, we are struck by the fact that a number of Washington-based security analysts seem to be working with longer-duration timelines than market participants residing outside the Beltway,” RBS’s Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research, wrote.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is a “misadventure” whose goals and exit strategy remain unclear, Russia’s ambassador to the U.K. told CNBC.

Andrey Kelin said Russia has “a lot of sympathy” with Tehran and said “the best end” to the escalating Middle East war is for it to “show only that they are senseless.”

“We still are trying to understand, what are the goals of President Trump in this campaign. You know that lots of doubts have been expressed about the exit strategy that the American administration can have in this endeavour,” Kelin told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick in an interview recorded on Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, earlier this week, offering his “unwavering support” to Tehran and saying the country “has been and will remain the Islamic Republic’s reliable partner.”

The war has been raging for two weeks, with heavy strikes reported across Iran’s capital city and shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted.

The White House has said the objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity and its navy, sever its support for proxies in other countries and ensure Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon.

The White House said on Thursday these objectives “have remained unchanged unambiguous, and consistent” since the operation began on Feb. 28.

“We have a lot of sympathy with Iran. We have a lot of sympathy as well with the Persian Gulf states, there is no doubt at all. As for the beginning, I cannot understand the position of when everybody is blaming Iran,” Kelin said.

“[The] crisis has started with the, as I have said, with Israel and U.S. aggression against Iran and it was in the middle of talks, of course,” he continued, referring to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program held in the Swiss city of Geneva last month.

“My president discussed this issue with the president of the United States, and we can make a good contribution by the way to finish it, to wrap it up.”

CNBC has contacted a spokesperson at the White House and Israel’s Foreign Ministry and is awaiting a response.

Alongside China, which has received millions of barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway, Russia stands as one of Iran’s most influential diplomatic partners.

U.K. Defense Secretary John Healy told reporters on Thursday that Putin’s “hidden hand” appears to be behind Iran’s military playbook as well as potentially some of Tehran’s military capabilities.

Iran has reportedly fired off more than 2,000 Shahed drones across the Middle East since the war began. These drones, which were first designed in Iran, have been used extensively during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that the Kremlin’s own assessments estimate that more than 1.3 million Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded on the battlefield since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. CNBC could not independently verify this report.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies published in January said Russian battlefield casualties are significantly greater than Ukrainian fatalities, with Ukrainian forces likely suffering somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties.

Kelin said he was sure that both Moscow and Kyiv would eventually agree to a diplomatic resolution to the war.

“I cannot say when it is going to happen, but a diplomatic solution is badly needed,” Kelin said.

Kelin said The U.S. was “playing a constructive role in this diplomatic effort,” but added: “Since Ukraine is not prepared at the moment and since Europe still prefer to back up Ukraine as much as possible, to supply it with weapons, with money … making no efforts to solicit or to help this diplomatic solution, this will last for some time.”

U.S-brokered talks on the Ukraine war have been put on hold due to the Iran conflict, with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff telling CNBC on Tuesday that the discussions would now likely take place next week. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy had urged the U.S. not to remove sanctions on Russia ahead of those talks, although the White House has since moved to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian crude at sea.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, recently said there appears to be “no end in sight” to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a news conference on Monday, she said it is clear Russia’s army was “bogged down” and its economy is in steep decline.

“Russia’s maximalist demands cannot be met with a minimalist response,” Kallas said. “It’s just common sense, if Ukraine’s military is to be limited in size, Russia’s should be too.”

The surge in fuel prices since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago is already driving up airfare. Consumers’ appetite for travel this year will dictate just how much.

Cathay Pacific on Thursday said it would roughly double fuel surcharges on tickets starting March 18.

Earlier this week, Australia’s Qantas said it is raising fares to help cover its costs, Scandinavian Airlines said the “unusually rapid and substantial increase” in fuel prompted it to raise prices, and Air New Zealand pulled its financial outlook “until fuel markets and operating conditions stabilise,” adding that it has made “initial fare adjustments.”

“If the conflict leads to continued elevated jet fuel costs, the airline may need to take further pricing action and adjust its network and schedule as required,” Air New Zealand said.

U.S. airline CEOs and other executives will update investors on Tuesday at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington, D.C.

Analysts expect an earnings hit at least in the first quarter if not the first half of the year, though the impact will depend on how long higher fuel prices last.

“We think a hit to 1Q EPS appears almost certain at this point,” UBS airline analysts Atul Maheswari and Thomas Wadewitz wrote in a note last week.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said last week on the sidelines of an event at Harvard University that higher fares were likely on the way because of the surge in fuel prices.

Kirby said travel demand is still strong, however. Two other senior airline executives at U.S. carriers, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to media, also said travel demand has held up. If those trends persist, it could give airlines more pricing power, but that will depend on the war’s duration.

“Airlines never met a higher fare they didn’t want,” said Scott Keyes, founder of flight deal company Going, previously known as Scott’s Cheap Flights.

So what should consumers do?

Keyes said travelers can’t lose by booking early, as long as they’re not buying restrictive basic economy tickets. That way, customers can try to exchange or cancel their tickets and buy cheaper ones if airfare ends up falling.

“If you book a $500 summer flight today, and two weeks from now the price drops to $350, you can call up the airline and get the $150 difference back as a credit. Heads you win; tails the airlines lose,” he said.

Jet fuel is airlines’ biggest cost after labor, accounting for about a fifth or more of expenses, depending on the airline.

United alone spent $11.4 billion last year on fuel, at an average price of $2.44 a gallon, according to a securities filing. U.S. jet fuel on Wednesday was going for $3.78 a gallon, according to Platts.

Jefferies airline analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a note Thursday that she expects “the most acute financial impact to airlines from surging oil prices to be in the next 30-90 days as airlines have been booking yields for close-in flights assuming a much lower fuel price and carriers cannot retroactively raise fares.”

She said Delta Air Lines and United, which produce most U.S. airline profits, are better positioned than other carriers because of their high-end demand. Risks to demand, particularly for more price-sensitive customers, include the recent jump in gasoline prices.

Most U.S. airlines no longer hedge fuel costs, or lock in prices using futures and other securities. Southwest Airlines was one of the last holdouts, and it quit last year. A spokesman for the Dallas-based airline told CNBC that Southwest currently has “no plans” to resume hedging.

Denmark’s energy minister urged citizens of the Scandinavian country to cut back on energy use and ditch cars as the price of oil continues to skyrocket amid the Middle East conflict.

Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s minister for climate, energy, and utilities, said Wednesday that the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran has driven the country to lean on its oil reserves in light of “towering oil prices” with no end to the conflict in sight.

“What the Danes should please, please, please do is that if there is any energy consumption that you can do without, if it is not strictly necessary to drive the car, then don’t do it,” he said in an interview with local broadcaster DR, translated by Google.

If Denmark saves energy in the near future, there will be two positive effects that can be felt both by citizens and the government, he said.

“Firstly, it can be felt in the private wallet, and secondly, it can help stretch our reserves so that they last longer,” Aagaard said.

Similar warnings have been issued across countries worldwide. In the U.K., motoring groups such as the AA have called on drivers to cut “non-essential journeys,” and change their driving style to conserve fuel.

Vietnam’s Ministry for Industry and Trade encouraged businesses to adopt remote working arrangements and reduce travel and transport demand to ensure national energy security.

Meanwhile, the Philippine government implemented a temporary four-day workweek in certain executive branches to conserve energy and reduce fuel use.

Concerns over oil prices have remained elevated this week, as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt due to the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels. A potential inflation spike could follow if the passage remains closed, and threatens to raise the cost of living, from petrol to groceries.

Oil prices jumped over 8% to more than $100 per barrel earlier on Thursday. The West Texas Intermediate was last up 4.6% to $91 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was trading nearly 5% higher at $96.

To assuage these fears, the International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war.

The IEA, which represents 32 member countries across Europe, North America, and northeast Asia, said the reserves would be released over a specific time frame, depending on the needs of its member countries.

Meanwhile, the U.S announced that it would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with shipments expected to begin next week and take roughly 120 days to complete.

Three more foreign ships were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight, authorities said, as attacks intensify on vessels sailing through or near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The latest incidents come after three separate vessels sustained damage in Gulf waters on Wednesday and as Iran warns oil prices could climb to $200 a barrel.

A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile about 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, a major port city near Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center said on Thursday. The incident caused a small fire onboard, and all crew were reported to be safe.

Earlier, two foreign oil tankers were left ablaze in Iraqi waters after having been struck near the port Umm Qasr, near the city of Basra.

At least one person was killed in the attack, according to multiple media reports, citing Iraqi port officials, and 38 crew members were rescued from the ships. Iraq’s General Company for Ports was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent days.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

Attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf have ratcheted up fears of a prolonged economic shock.

“Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, said Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Crude prices were sharply higher on Thursday morning, as traders closely monitored supply risks and appeared to shrug off the International Energy Agency’s push to release a record 400 million barrels of oil.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 5.7% higher at $97.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery rose 5.3% at $91.88.

The IEA on Wednesday did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market. It said that the reserves would be released over a time frame that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.