Trump warns to ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue


An Iranian security personnel monitors an area in phase 19 of the South Pars gas field in Assalooyeh on Iran’s Persian Gulf coast 1,400 km (870 miles) south of Tehran on August 23, 2016.

Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned that if Iran continued targeting Qatar’s energy facilities, America would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field.”

Tehran has attacked a key energy facility in Qatar after Israel bombed the South Pars Gas in Iran, signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict and sending energy prices soaring.

Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian missiles caused “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the largest liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export facility in the world.

Trump also denied any prior knowledge of Israel attacking South Pars, pushing back against reports that the strike was coordinated with and approved by his administration.

In a social media post Wednesday night stateside, Trump said that “the United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen.”

Trump also urged Israel to end attacks on the South Pars gas field, unless Iran “unwisely” decides to attack Qatar. In that case, the U.S. will “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

Trump warns to ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue

The attack on South Pars — the world’s largest natural gas reserve, shared between Iran and Qatar — marked the first time Israel has targeted Iranian natural gas production infrastructure since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Iran has fired ballistic missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, with ​QatarEnergy saying the attack had caused “extensive damage” warranting deployment of emergency response teams to contain fires at the site. No casualties were reported.

Separately, Reuters reported Thursday that the U.S. government was considering deploying thousands of U.S. forces to the Middle East, raising the prospect of further escalation.

As tensions spiral, world leaders are scrambling to contain the Middle East conflict amid fears of deepening the turmoil in global energy markets.

Europe calls for de-escalation

Gulf states sound alarm

The United Arab Emirates called the targeting of energy facilities linked to the South Pars field in Iran a “serious escalation,” posing “a direct threat to global energy security” with severe environmental repercussions.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs also called Iran’s targeting of its Habshan gas facility and Bab field a “terrorist attack,” risking a “dangerous escalation.”

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari described the Israeli strike on South Pars as “a dangerous and irresponsible step” amid escalating regional tensions.

The Gulf nation has declared Iranian military and security attachés and their staff at the Iranian embassy in Doha “persona non grata,” ordering them to leave the country within 24 hours.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud also appeared to toughen the tone, reportedly saying that “what little trust there was before with Iran has completely been shattered.” Both political and non-political responses to Iran remain on the table, he added.

Iran vows retaliation

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday threatened to escalate hostilities by targeting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

In a post on X, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, saying that they “could have uncontrollable consequences, the scope of which could engulf the entire world.”

The attacks on Middle East energy production facilities have further deepened supply disruption triggered by the conflict. Brent crude May futures rose 4% to $111.77 a barrel as of 10:25 p.m. ET , while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April climbed over 1.3% to $97.56 per barrel.

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil supply and a significant share of LNG exports — has plunged since the war began, with the waterway effectively closed to most commercial shipping.

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Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz


Fire and plumes of smoke rise from an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Saturday, March 14, 2026.

Altaf Qadri | AP

A fresh wave of attacks on the United Arab Emirates’ energy infrastructure has ramped up concerns over prolonged supply disruptions amid the Iran war.

It comes after the world’s largest ultra-sour gas development was struck by a drone, a fire broke out in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, and another tanker was hit near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE also reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown following a fire caused by an Iranian drone attack hitting a fuel tank.

Operations at the UAE’s massive Shah gas field remained suspended on Tuesday following a drone attack, which caused a fire at the facility, according to Abu Dhabi authorities. No injuries were reported from the incident.

The Shah gas field is located 180 kilometers southwest of Abu Dhabi and is operated by a joint venture between ADNOC and Occidental Petroleum Corp. It has the capacity to produce 1.28 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day and 4.2 million tons of sulfur per year.

Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz

Separately, a drone attack sparked a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a critically important hub for the UAE’s crude exports and bunkering operations. The Fujairah government’s media office said on Tuesday that no casualties were reported.

Fujairah, one of the world’s top hubs for storing crude and fuels, is located on the eastern seaboard of the UAE and serves as a key shipping hub for the wider region.

It has faced repeated attacks in recent weeks, underlining the vulnerability of the UAE’s only export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy choke points, has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the maritime corridor.

Spanning around 248 miles from onshore oil facilities at Habshan to Fujairah, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), or the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline, is estimated to handle 1.5 million barrels per day, with a reported total capacity of close to 1.8 million barrels per day.

Oil prices

A tanker was also struck while at anchor by an unknown projectile about 23 nautical miles east of the UAE’s Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, according to an update published Monday from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center.

The incident caused minor structural damage, with no injuries to the crew and no environmental impact was reported, the UKMTO said.

The latest report comes after six vessels sustained damage in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman last week as Iran warned oil prices could climb to $200 a barrel.

A smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16, 2026. Flights were gradually resuming at Dubai airport on March 16, previously the world’s busiest for international flights, the airport operator said, after a “drone-related incident” sparked a fuel tank fire nearby, as Iran kept up its Gulf attacks.

– | Afp | Getty Images

Oil prices were higher on Tuesday as energy market participants closely monitored ongoing supply disruptions.

International Brent crude futures with May delivery advanced 2.2% at $102.36 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery rose 2.2% at $95.55.

Prices have surged about 40% during the U.S.-Iran war, reaching their highest levels since 2022, as shipping through the Strait has been severely disrupted. Brent closed above $100 for the first time in four years last week.

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Price caps, taking the stairs, and short-sleeved shirts: How countries are coping with the Iran war energy shock


A fuel nozzle is inserted into a combustion engine at a petrol pump at a filling station during a refueling process.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Countries around the world have scrambled to cope with the fallout of the energy shock from the Iran war, imposing measures from fuel export bans, loosening refining standards, and even getting workers to climb stairs instead of taking elevators.

This comes as the Iran war stretches into its third week, and despite U.S. President Donald Trump proclaiming that the U.S. has “won,” the effects of the war, especially on the energy market, continue to be felt.

From the serious…

Naturally, some nationwide measures include trying to have as much fuel in country, so as to avoid having to rely on imported fuel.

On Thursday, China ordered refiners to stop refined fuel exports so as to mitigate potential domestic fuel shortages, according to Reuters.

Sources told the agency that the ban was issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, and includes shipments of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.

CNBC attempted to reach the NDRC for comment, but did not receive an immediate reply.

Other major countries are considering or have imposed price caps for fuel products.

On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that Tokyo was considering steps ‌to cushion the economic blow from rising fuel costs, including curbing gasoline prices.

Takaichi was quoted by Japanese media on Thursday as saying she plans to cap pump prices at an average of 170 yen ($1.07) per liter nationwide, adding that gasoline prices could potentially hit 200 yen per liter.

Tokyo also conducted a unilateral release of crude from its own stockpiles, without waiting for coordination with other nations.

Japan has been particularly badly hit by the war in Iran, as the world’s third-largest economy needs to import almost all of its energy needs.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Friday the government implemented a petroleum price ceiling.

“We have decided to set a clear price cap on supply prices to curb domestic fuel prices, which are fluctuating wildly due to the unstable international situation,” Lee said.

India also had to make some tough choices. The country told oil refineries to prioritize supplying liquified petroleum gas to the 330 million households that use it as a primary cooking fuel, over 3 million businesses that use commercial LPG cylinders.

… to the quirky

While some countries have tried to secure alternative energy supplies to keep their lights on, others have focused on reducing demand on their grids.

Work-from-home orders came back in some countries after years of companies trying to coax workers back to offices after the pandemic, with Vietnam and Thailand reportedly getting employees to work remotely.

Thailand went a step further, ordering civil servants to take the stairs instead of elevators, reducing their reliance on air conditioning and telling government employees to wear short-sleeved shirts rather than suits.

The Philippines and Pakistan both instituted four-day work weeks for government workers, and Bangladesh has even shifted its calendar, bringing forward its Eid-al-fitr holiday, allowing universities to close early in a bid to save fuel.

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U.S. ‘misadventure’ in Iran has no clear exit strategy, Russia’s UK ambassador says


Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the UK Andrei Kelin during an interview with PA at the official residence of the Russian Ambassador in London. Picture date: Monday February 21, 2022.

Aaron Chown – Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty Images

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is a “misadventure” whose goals and exit strategy remain unclear, Russia’s ambassador to the U.K. told CNBC.

Andrey Kelin said Russia has “a lot of sympathy” with Tehran and said “the best end” to the escalating Middle East war is for it to “show only that they are senseless.”

“We still are trying to understand, what are the goals of President Trump in this campaign. You know that lots of doubts have been expressed about the exit strategy that the American administration can have in this endeavour,” Kelin told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick in an interview recorded on Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, earlier this week, offering his “unwavering support” to Tehran and saying the country “has been and will remain the Islamic Republic’s reliable partner.”

U.S. ‘misadventure’ in Iran has no clear exit strategy, Russia’s UK ambassador says

The war has been raging for two weeks, with heavy strikes reported across Iran’s capital city and shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted.

The White House has said the objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity and its navy, sever its support for proxies in other countries and ensure Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon.

The White House said on Thursday these objectives “have remained unchanged unambiguous, and consistent” since the operation began on Feb. 28.

“We have a lot of sympathy with Iran. We have a lot of sympathy as well with the Persian Gulf states, there is no doubt at all. As for the beginning, I cannot understand the position of when everybody is blaming Iran,” Kelin said.

“[The] crisis has started with the, as I have said, with Israel and U.S. aggression against Iran and it was in the middle of talks, of course,” he continued, referring to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program held in the Swiss city of Geneva last month.

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Iranian President in Ashgabat on December 12, 2025.

Alexander Kazakov | Afp | Getty Images

“My president discussed this issue with the president of the United States, and we can make a good contribution by the way to finish it, to wrap it up.”

CNBC has contacted a spokesperson at the White House and Israel’s Foreign Ministry and is awaiting a response.

‘A strategic partnership’

Funerals are held for members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and other military figures at Enghelab Square on March 11, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

Majid Saeedi | Getty Images News | Getty Images

U.K. Defense Secretary John Healy told reporters on Thursday that Putin’s “hidden hand” appears to be behind Iran’s military playbook as well as potentially some of Tehran’s military capabilities.

Iran has reportedly fired off more than 2,000 Shahed drones across the Middle East since the war began. These drones, which were first designed in Iran, have been used extensively during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Diplomatic solution on Ukraine is ‘badly needed’

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies published in January said Russian battlefield casualties are significantly greater than Ukrainian fatalities, with Ukrainian forces likely suffering somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties.

Kelin said he was sure that both Moscow and Kyiv would eventually agree to a diplomatic resolution to the war.

“I cannot say when it is going to happen, but a diplomatic solution is badly needed,” Kelin said.

Kelin said The U.S. was “playing a constructive role in this diplomatic effort,” but added: “Since Ukraine is not prepared at the moment and since Europe still prefer to back up Ukraine as much as possible, to supply it with weapons, with money … making no efforts to solicit or to help this diplomatic solution, this will last for some time.”

U.S-brokered talks on the Ukraine war have been put on hold due to the Iran conflict, with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff telling CNBC on Tuesday that the discussions would now likely take place next week. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy had urged the U.S. not to remove sanctions on Russia ahead of those talks, although the White House has since moved to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian crude at sea.

A Shahed-136 drone is displayed at a rally in western Tehran, Iran, on February 11, 2026.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, recently said there appears to be “no end in sight” to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a news conference on Monday, she said it is clear Russia’s army was “bogged down” and its economy is in steep decline.

“Russia’s maximalist demands cannot be met with a minimalist response,” Kallas said. “It’s just common sense, if Ukraine’s military is to be limited in size, Russia’s should be too.”

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Cargo ship struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, UK says


Naval units from Iran and Russia carry out to simulation of rescue a hijacked vessel during the joint naval drills held at the Port of Bandar Abbas near the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan, Iran on February 19, 2026.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

A cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz has been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said in an update on Wednesday morning.

The strike forced the crew of the ship, which has not been identified, to evacuate, the UKMTO said. It urged vessels to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity while authorities continue to investigate.

The incident took place 11 nautical miles north of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO said there is no report of any environmental impact.

Shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near standstill since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with multiple incidents reported in recent days.

The waterway is a narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

U.S. forces sank several Iranian ships on Tuesday, including 16 minelayers, near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command. The update followed an earlier announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that said if Iran had put any mines in the waterway, “we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!”

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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Elon Musk’s xAI wants to build a power plant in Mississippi. Regulators plan a key meeting on Election Day


Elon Musk waves to the crowd during the 56th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2026.

Denis Balibouse | Reuters

With Elon Musk’s xAI planning to build a massive, natural-gas burning power plant in Southaven, Mississippi, the state’s environmental authority has scheduled a board meeting for Tuesday — Election Day for the 2026 primaries — to decide whether to grant the company key permits.

The NAACP and other civil rights and environmental advocates tried to get the meeting delayed, arguing that it was being rushed and would conflict with some residents’ efforts to vote. The groups also said that by holding the meeting in Jackson, nearly 200 miles away from Southaven, those directly affected by the plant are impeded from attending.

“This is not only a civic duty conundrum, but an unnecessary financial burden to Black residents and individuals who live in low-income and other communities near the facility,” the NAACP wrote in a letter to the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) that’s dated March 8, but was released publicly on Monday.

They asked that the hearing be rescheduled and moved to a site closer to the proposed facility.

The MDEQ denied the request on Monday, writing in a response to the NAACP that its permit board “regularly meets on the second Tuesday of each month, which has been the standard practice for decades,” and that the regulator, “considers matters on a statewide basis.” A copy of the letter was shared with CNBC.

The meeting is set to take place a little over a month after Musk merged xAI with SpaceX, his reusable rocket company, in a transaction that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. Since starting xAI in 2023, Musk has tried to turn the AI company into an OpenAI competitor in the booming generative AI market.

Elon Musk’s xAI wants to build a power plant in Mississippi. Regulators plan a key meeting on Election Day

Training and running AI models requires hefty amounts of compute and power, and rising utility bills have been partly blamed on the massive electricity consumption of new data centers. At a meeting last week with the White House, execs from tech companies, including xAI, signed non-binding pledges to supply their own power for their facilities.

So far, xAI has relied on its Colossus 1 and Colossus 2 data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, just across the Mississippi state line. In Southaven, a roughly 15 minute drive from Memphis, xAI is investing in the proposed power plant, and a large data center dubbed Macrohardrr.

Following the MDEQ’s response on Monday, the NAACP said in a statement that by having the hearing the morning of Election Day, three hours away from the community, “their actions speak volumes.”

“They’re trying to sneak xAI’s data center into the community’s backyard and they don’t care about the people living there,” the letter said.

In February, the NAACP filed a notice of intent to sue xAI over alleged Clean Air Act violations in Southaven.

As CNBC previously reported, residents in the area say they’ve endured round-the-clock noise pollution, and are concerned about air quality and public health issues from xAI’s use of “temporary” natural gas-burning turbines. Research by scientists at the University of Tennessee found that xAI’s earlier turbine use added to air pollution woes in Greater Memphis.

At a public hearing on Feb. 17 in Southaven, about 200 residents turned out to implore state and local officials to deny xAI authorization to rapidly build out data and power infrastructure without greater transparency, community engagement and effective efforts to prevent noise and air pollution.

Physicians, parents, teachers and local officials spoke out at the hearing.

“We are slowly falling out of love with where we have decided to grow our family,” said Taylor Logsdon, a mother of three, citing pollutants, noise levels and negative health effects. “It’s no coincidence that this is happening now. And I feel it will only get worse.”

A recent investigation by Floodlight showed that xAI has been operating more than a dozen “temporary” turbines concurrently in Southaven, as it previously did in Memphis. The company has argued that the turbines did not require federal permits, but environmental compliance experts have disagreed.

Community pushback and regulatory requirements are among the factors driving Musk and other tech executives to explore the potential of data centers in space.

WATCH: SpaceX takes on xAI cash burn after merger

SpaceX takes on xAI cash burn after merger
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Energy prices will fall when U.S. destroys Iran’s ability to attack tankers in Strait of Hormuz: Wright


U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright pumps gas at a gas station in Corpus Christi, Texas, U.S., February 27, 2026.

Sheila Dang | Reuters

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil and gas prices will begin to fall when the U.S. begins to knock out Iran’s ability to hinder tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as Americans weather spiking gas prices due to the war in Iran.

“The plan is to get oil and natural gas and fertilizer and all the products from the Gulf flowing through the straits before too long,” Wright said on Fox News Sunday. “We’re massively attriting their ability to strike with missiles and drones, and that rate of attrition will increase in the coming days. So we’ll be cautious, we’ll be careful, but energy will flow soon.”

President Donald Trump was elected to a second term in the White House in part by promising to lower gas prices and defeat high inflation. He has frequently touted lower gas prices ahead of the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress for the remainder of his term.

But gas prices and oil have spiked since the war began in Iran, with vessel bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz causing the surge. About 20% of global energy supply moves through the strait.

Gas has jumped to over $3.46 per gallon on average in the U.S., according to GasBuddy. U.S. crude oil has soared to more than $91 per barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude has spiked to over $92 per barrel.

Wright said that “one large tanker has already gone through the straits with no issues at all.” Typically, roughly 100 tankers and cargo ships move through the strait every day.

Wright said the disruption would last for “weeks, certainly not months.”

“We believe this is a small price to pay to get to a world where energy prices will return back to where they were,” Wright said. “Iran will finally be defanged, and now you can see more investment, more free flow of trade, less ability to threaten energy supplies.”

Read more CNBC politics coverage

When asked about potentially tapping the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce pain at the pump, Wright suggested such a move is not necessary yet. In the past, the SPR has been tapped to mitigate disruptions in oil flows.

“We’re more than happy to use [the SPR] if needed,” Wright said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “But … it’s a logistics issue, where do they need oil? They need oil at refineries in Europe and in Asia.”

Trump has also downplayed the option of tapping the SPR.

“We’ve got a lot of oil. Our country has a tremendous amount,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday. “There’s a lot of oil out there. That’ll get healed very quickly.”

WATCH: No traffic will flow through Strait of Hormuz until a resolution with Iran: Kpler’s Matt Smith

Energy prices will fall when U.S. destroys Iran’s ability to attack tankers in Strait of Hormuz: Wright
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Iran war threatens to scramble the ‘affordability’ midterm


U.S. President Donald Trump points his finger as he arrives to deliver remarks on the U.S. economy and affordability at the Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, U.S. December 9, 2025.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

November’s midterm was always supposed to be about affordability. Then, the bombs began falling in Iran.

The expanding U.S. war in the Middle East threatens to scramble the cost-of-living narrative that has so far defined the contest for control of Congress. The election, now less than eight months away, will determine whether President Donald Trump retains his iron grip on Washington or spends his last two years in office fending off Democratic congressional majorities.

Both parties have sought to capitalize on kitchen-table issues, as Americans struggle to keep up with the rising costs of ordinary goods and services. The war in Iran now threatens to exacerbate those concerns — and Democrats are seizing on the opportunity to pillory Trump and Republicans for beginning a conflict that could make life even more expensive for ordinary Americans.

“Because there was no plan going in, I think there will be lots of things that are unforeseen consequences of this,” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview with CNBC. “I mean you saw how much gas has gone up in a day, oil futures have gone up, there are going to be a lot of knock-on effects.”

Read more CNBC politics coverage

Some of those knock-on effects have already been evident. U.S. crude oil has jumped past $90 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the war broke out. The global market index Brent has skyrocketed to more than $90 per barrel. That’s caused gas prices to spike to about $3.38 per gallon, according to a national average from Gasbuddy, up more than 35 cents from the week before the war.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, was quick to point out in an interview that liquefied natural gas prices have also spiked. Though U.S. increases have been modest so far, global LNG supply has been squeezed by a shutdown in Qatar — one of the world’s top LNG-producing countries. Natural gas is the largest electricity generator in the U.S., which is critical as the booming data center industry stresses the electric grid and increases utility costs.

“I think what American families have been feeling most acutely for the past year-plus is their energy bills, their utility bills rising,” Huffman said. “A big part of the utility bill increase is that natural gas is getting more and more expensive … a lot of our effort has been pushed into LNG exports instead of strategies that would lower bills for American consumers. That problem is only more amplified by this conflict.”

Wrapping up the Iran war

Some Republicans are banking on the conflict in Iran wrapping up quickly to mitigate economic damage. Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., a member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said taming energy prices will depend on the U.S. destroying Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and nuclear capacity.

“Once we’ve done that, I think you’ll see oil prices start back down because you won’t have that interruption in the Arabian Gulf,” Hoeven said. “But the real key is that we achieve our objectives and then you have oil continue to come out of the Gulf.”

“I’m talking relatively shorter term, I’m talking weeks, not months, and I think that’s going to be the key in terms of oil prices,” he said.

But a quick operation in Iran is far from certain, and any extended conflict could create an election-year quagmire for Republicans, said Brittany Martinez, executive director at Principles First and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

“If energy prices rise or markets stay volatile, affordability becomes a harder message for Republicans to carry cleanly,” Martinez said. “Republicans will argue that projecting strength abroad prevents greater instability, while Democrats will try to link any sustained price increases to foreign policy decisions. The real question is whether this turns into a prolonged conflict that voters feel in their household budgets.”

Many believe the military intervention in Iran has the potential to drag on, including Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a national security advisor in the Obama White House.

“This administration doesn’t seem to think about this at all,” Kim said when asked about a potential power vacuum keeping the U.S. in the region longer. “The intelligence community has done a whole range of assessments that very much keep me up at night, and the fact that this White House, I assume, read the same things I read and still went through with this, I just find that to be absolutely reckless.”

Iran offensive unpopular with voters

Complicating matters more for the GOP is that the war in Iran is unpopular. A CNN poll released March 2 found that nearly 60% of those surveyed disapproved of the U.S. taking military action in Iran. That comes as Trump’s economic approval remains underwater: A Fox News poll released March 4 found that 61% of voters disapproved of Trump’s job on the economy.

“We don’t see it as an opportunity, but I do think it’s our responsibility to tell the American people exactly the decision that Donald Trump is making,” said House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif. “He’s sending billions of our tax dollars to the Middle East for another war while he’s kicking people off of healthcare and … eliminating nutrition programs.”

Rep. Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican seeking reelection in a district Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has labeled a “toss up,” said he is not concerned the war could drown out the GOP’s affordability message. He pointed to the sprawling tax and spending bill that was signed into law last year, increased domestic energy production, and housing legislation that advanced out of the House last month as examples of things the party will use to show action on rising costs.

War in the Middle East does not necessarily preclude Republicans from continuing to try to bring prices down, he argued.

“A more fulsome conversation would be, how do we make sure that we still deliver on affordability?” Nunn said in an interview. “I think this is the absolute right spot for us to be in.”

America First

But Trump, the “America First” president who campaigned on ending the U.S.’s foreign entanglements, risks alienating his base with his Iran offensive. Democrats see the war as evidence of what they have been telling voters about Trump all along: he does not care affordability.

“We have a president who has campaigned on ending forever wars, and he has jumped into war without justification or explanation to the American people,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “So this has been broken promise after broken promise. This has been at the expense of the needs of everyday Americans. And I do think voters will hold them accountable in November.”

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CNBC’s UK Exchange newsletter: FTSE 100’s defensive slant comes into its own


This report is from this week’s CNBC’s UK Exchange newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

The dispatch

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CNBC’s UK Exchange newsletter: FTSE 100’s defensive slant comes into its own

FTSE 100

Additionally, the index contains plenty of constituents likely to benefit from turmoil in the Middle East, such as the defense contractor BAE Systems and suppliers to the industry, like Babcock International, Rolls-Royce and Melrose Industries, as well as oil majors BP and Shell.

This is a pattern well-established during times of strife: during the second Iraq War in 2003 and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S., the Footsie outperformed its European peers and, during the latter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average as well.

Mining stocks, which could benefit from higher commodity prices caused by disruption to shipping routes and supply chains, are also well represented in the FTSE 100. Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and the Chilean copper miner Antofagasta are among the 20 largest stocks in the index, while the likes of Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining are well-placed to benefit should the uncertainty lead to another leg higher in the price of gold. 

Nor do these defensive qualities apply just to the leading 100 U.K.-listed companies. The FTSE 250, the mid-cap U.K. stock index, is replete with defense industry suppliers, including Qinetiq Group, Avon Technologies, Hunting and Senior, not to mention oil and gas plays such as Ithaca Energy, Harbour Energy and Clarkson, the world’s largest shipbroking and integrated shipping services provider, another likely beneficiary from maritime disruption.

City workers in Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is based, in the City of London, UK.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

So, for investors seeking to retain exposure to equities during times of conflict in the Middle East, the U.K. stock market is not a bad option.

To that, it can be added that sterling usually suffers when currency investors seek safety plays in the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc and the yen, as seen on Monday morning, when the pound initially fell to a three-month low against the greenback.

Because FTSE 100 companies make around three-quarters of their revenues in currencies other than the pound — around 45% or so comes in dollars — sterling weakness tends to be good for the Footsie.

This phenomenon has been understood for years by professional investors but hit home with the wider public when, in June 2016, the vote to leave the EU crushed the pound while the FTSE 100, after an initial sell-off, rallied.

Energy prices in focus

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MAR 6: Halifax house price index for February

MAR 10: BRC retail sales monitor for February


Middle East war sends natural gas prices soaring, raising growth shock risk for Europe and Asia


A prolonged surge in natural gas prices triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East risks denting European growth and hitting some Asian economies hard, analysts have warned.

Global gas prices have soared this week amid fears of a lengthy disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route running between Oman and Iran that handles about one-fifth of global LNG trade — as the Iran conflict escalates.

Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures, Europe’s benchmark gas contract, rose 35% on Tuesday to more than 60 euros ($69.64) per megawatt-hour. On the week, prices are around 76% higher.

The Northeast Asia LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), which captures deliveries to Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan, reached a one-year high, and was last seen around 43 euros per megawatt-hour. U.K. natural gas was also sharply higher.

Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG producers, halted production on Monday following Iranian drone strikes at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. Goldman Sachs estimated the pause will reduce near-term global LNG supply by about 19%.

A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard official later said the country had closed the Strait of Hormuz to all ships, and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the channel would be attacked. The U.S., however, said the route remained open, according to a Fox News report.

Supply squeeze

Europe and much of Asia are more heavily exposed to potential gas price shocks than the U.S., which benefits from both domestic shale and LNG production.

Around 25% of Europe’s total gas supply is LNG, according to Chris Wheaton, oil and gas analyst at Stifel. With roughly 20% of global LNG production sitting behind the Strait, a prolonged disruption could trigger a supply squeeze comparable to the 2022 shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said in a note.

“We are much more concerned about European gas prices than we are about oil prices,” Wheaton said.

Shares of Norwegian energy giant Equinor, one of Europe’s largest natural gas suppliers, hit a 52-week high on Tuesday, adding more than 2%, after closing the previous session up more than 8%.

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CNBC’s UK Exchange newsletter: FTSE 100’s defensive slant comes into its own

Equinor.

Goldman Sachs, in a note published Monday, warned that a month-long halt to flows through Hormuz risks driving TTF and JKM prices toward 74 euros per megawatt-hour. This was the level that “triggered large natural gas demand responses” during the 2022 European energy crisis.

European gas prices ultimately peaked at 345 euros per megawatt-hour in August 2022 as Russia weaponized its natural gas exports in response to EU sanctions, cutting supply, which pushed up domestic energy bills and sparked a cost-of-living crisis across the continent.

In a separate note later Monday, Goldman raised its April TTF forecast to 55 euros per megawatt-hour from 36 euros per megawatt-hour, with its average second-quarter forecast now at 45 euros/MWh.

‘Negative implications’

Patrick O’Donnell, chief investment strategist at Omnis Investments, said LNG is now a key area of concern for Europe’s wider economy. “That may have more negative implications for the European economy and the reindustrialization that the market has been hoping that we get to see,” O’Donnell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Sven Jari Stehn noted that “the effects of higher energy prices on GDP tend to be negative for most countries, except for Norway which produces and exports oil.”

Goldman Sachs estimated that a sustained 10% rise in energy prices over four quarters would cut 0.2% off GDP in both the U.K. and the euro area. Switzerland, which relies more on nuclear and renewables, would be flat, while Norway — an oil exporter — would see a 0.1% boost.

In contrast, Goldman analysts see “limited upside risk” to U.S. natural gas prices.

Asian importers also affected

Asia is also vulnerable to supply disruption.

Invesco estimates that almost 58% of India’s LNG imports come from the Middle East, accounting for nearly 2% of its primary energy consumption. Around 27% of Singapore’s LNG imports come from the region, making up 2.2% of primary energy use.

Other Asia-Pacific nations source more than 37% of their LNG from the Middle East, Invesco said, representing almost 3% of primary energy consumption, while 26.6% of China’s LNG imports originate there.

Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at BBH, said countries heavily reliant on imported oil and gas with limited fiscal space — including Japan, India, South Africa, Turkey, Hungary and Malaysia — were the most vulnerable to energy disruption shocks, while Norway, Canada and Mexico are among the least exposed.

“A protracted conflict that leads to further disruption in energy production and shipping raises the risk of stagflation and could add to fiscal strains,” Haddad said in a note.