The U.S. is preparing to send thousands more troops to the Middle East, prompting speculation about a ground attack on Iran amid conflicting accounts of peace talks.

The Pentagon is reportedly preparing to send about 3,000 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, alongside two Marine Expeditionary Units, to assist military operations in Iran. CNBC has contacted the White House and is awaiting a response.

Military experts said that the number of additional troops being deployed to the region appears to be consistent with plans for discrete and time-limited operations — rather than a sustained ground campaign.

It puts two strategic Iranian islands in the spotlight and raises questions about a potential move to seize the Islamic Republic’s nuclear materials.

Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis estimated that there were likely only around 4,000 to 5,000 “trigger pullers” or ground troops.

“That is enough to seize a small target for a period of time. You’ve got to understand, even the 82nd Airborne Division, it’s an immediate reaction force to provide very quick reaction on the ground but only in advance of something bigger coming in behind that,” Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at Defense Priorities, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

“I have seen no evidence that any kind of a force of size has been even considered, much less alerted, prepared, equipped, trained up that you would need to go … That takes months of time to do.”

Davis said that, from the limited number of ground troops being deployed, there were three possibilities that the U.S. could theoretically execute.

The first possibility is seizing Qeshm Island, which sits “in the horseshoe bend of the Strait of Hormuz,” Davis said.

Qeshm Island, off Iran’s southern coast, is the largest island in the Persian Gulf. Located near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, the arrow-shaped island has emerged as a potential U.S. target amid reports that anti-ship missiles, mines, drones and attack craft are being kept there in underground tunnels.

“All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces,” Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said on X, according to a Google translation.

“If they step out of line, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction, become the target of relentless attacks,” he added.

Ruben Stewart, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank, said the number of U.S. forces preparing to be deployed was not consistent with a sustained ground campaign.

“What is notably absent are the heavy armoured units, logistics depth, and command structures required for a prolonged land war. In practical terms, this is a force that can act quickly and selectively, but not one that could sustain operations deep inside Iran or over an extended period,” Stewart told CNBC by email.

“Seizing Kharg Island is technically feasible but escalatory, given its centrality to Iran’s oil exports. By contrast, securing Iran’s nuclear material would be the least realistic with this force as it would require a far larger, sustained ground presence,” he added.

The relatively limited level of deployment was perhaps best understood as a tool of coercive leverage, Stewart said, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to increase its bargaining power and signal that it has options if diplomacy fails.

The White House has said that Trump has been engaged in “productive” talks with Iran over the last three days, adding that the military operation in Iran was “ahead of schedule.”

Iran, however, has repeatedly denied holding talks with Washington.

The U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday said it is seeking to impose a temporary 8% fuel surcharge for package and express mail deliveries to deal with rising transportation costs, which include higher oil prices as a result of the Iran war.

If approved by the Postal Regulatory Commission, the surcharge would take effect April 26 and remain in place until Jan. 17, 2027, the Postal Service said in a notice on its website.

The 8% surcharge would apply to postage on Priority Mail Express, Priority Mail, USPS Ground Advantage, and Parcel Select products. First-class stamps and other mail services would not be affected.

Oil prices have jumped more than 40% since Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

“This temporary price adjustment will provide needed flexibility for the Postal Service by helping to ensure that the actual costs of doing business are covered, as required by Congress,” the Postal Service said in its announcement.

“Transportation costs have been increasing, and our competitors have reacted with a number of surcharges,” the notice said.

“We have steadfastly avoided surcharges and this charge is less than one-third of what our competitors charge for fuel alone, so even with this change, the Postal Service continues to offer great value in shipping with some of the lowest rates in the industrialized world.”

CNBC has reached out to the Postal Regulatory Commission for comment on the Postal Service’s request.

A trio of European energy CEOs has sounded a warning over energy supplies, amid the ongoing conflict in Iran and restricted access through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Amid volatile trade, crude prices have surged around 40% in recent weeks, at one point approaching $120 a barrel as investors raised concerns over a potential lack of supply.

Those concerns have been felt particularly in Asian countries so far, with the Philippines announcing an energy emergency, while South Korea says it is preparing for “worst-case scenarios.”

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has asked the International Energy Agency to consider an additional release from global crude stockpiles, with the global energy watchdog having already coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of oil amongst member countries.

Japan will release national stockpiles on Thursday, with Takaichi confirming Tokyo will access the IEA stockpiles toward the end of the month.

But now there are fears the supply concerns will move westward.

“South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Shell CEO Wael Sawan said at CERAWeek in Houston, Texas.

Sawan warned governments not to take actions that could magnify the impact of supply disruptions, adding that you cannot have “national security without energy security.”

Governments across Europe have already started introducing measures to shield households from rising energy costs.

Slovenia became the first country in Europe to introduce fuel rationing, Spain approved a 5-billion-euro ($5.8 billion) aid package, which included tax reductions on electricity and gas, as well as subsidies for transport operators, farmers and for the purchase of fertilizers.

European Union leaders have also discussed temporary measures to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the current oil products market is “dislocated,” telling CNBC that this is why “you see the impact in many countries, in Europe, on the gasoline price, diesel price, people being very unhappy.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week pushed back when asked whether stagflation posed a threat to the U.S. economy. His successor may face a tougher challenge, as Wall Street forecasters raise their expectations of recession, brought on in part by the Iran war and potential for higher prices.

In recent days, economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains over the past year.

Moody’s Analytics’ model has raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to 48.6%. Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate to 30%. Wilmington Trust has the odds at 45%, while EY Parthenon has it at 40%, with the caveat that “those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict.”

In normal times, the risk for a recession in any given 12-months span is around 20%. So while the current predictions are hardly certainties, they signify elevated risk.

The situation poses a tough challenge for policymakers who are being asked to balance threats to the labor market against sticky inflation.

“I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.”

Talk of an economic contraction has accelerated as the war with Iran has dragged on.

An oil shock has preceded virtually every recession the U.S. has seen since the Great Depression, save for the Covid pandemic. Prices at the pump have risen by $1.02 a gallon over the past month, an increase of 35%, according to AAA.

While economists still debate the pass-through impact from higher energy, the trend has held.

“The negative consequences of higher oil prices happen first and fast,” Zandi said. “If oil prices stay kind of where they are through Memorial Day, certainly through the end of the second quarter, that’ll push us into recession.”

Like his fellow forecasters, Zandi said his “baseline” expectation is that the warring sides find a diplomatic off-ramp, oil flows again through the Strait of Hormuz and the economy can avoid a worst-case scenario.

To be sure, economists as a lot are negative and subject to the old trope about predicting nine of the last five recessions. Markets also have been wrong about where the economy is headed. A portion of the yield curve — or the spread between various Treasury maturities — most closely watched by the Fed has sent repeated false recession signals for much of the past 3½ years.

But the threat of a prolonged war, pressure on a consumer who drives more than two-thirds of all growth, and a labor market that created virtually no jobs in 2025 collectively raises the risk that the expansion could falter.

“That path through is increasingly narrow, and it’s getting increasingly difficult to see the other side,” Zandi said.

Consumers also are pessimistic. Consumer site NerdWallet said its March survey showed 65% of respondents expect a recession in the next 12 months, up 6 percentage points from the month before.

Beyond energy prices, economists say the labor market is a key pressure point.

The U.S. economy created just 116,000 jobs for all of 2025 and lost 92,000 in February. While the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.4%, that’s largely been because of a dearth of firing rather than a burst in hiring.

Indeed, stocks have had a rough ride during the war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 5% during the hostilities — important because consumer spending and sentiment have been supported by higher-income households benefiting most from rising equity prices.

Gross domestic product is on track to grow at a 2% pace in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of rolling data. However, that’s coming off an increase of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the product in part of the government shutdown. Economists had expected that the drain on growth in Q4 would translate to a boost in Q1, but the effects of that appear to be modest.

Still, if global leaders can find an end to the war soon, the economy again is expected to skirt the gloomiest predictions. Stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill in 2025 is projected to goose growth, with lower regulations and a boost in tax returns that could help consumers cope with elevated prices. A sustained rise in production also is a factor in the economy’s favor.

“There is support underneath,” said North, the Allianz economist. “That makes me real hesitant to use the ‘R’ word. But certainly, I think we’re seeing a slowdown this year.”

Private sector output in the euro zone sank to a 10-month low in March, amid mounting evidence of the impact the Iran conflict is having on the global economy.

The closely-watched S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the euro zone fell to 50.5 in March, marking a steep decline from the 51.9 reported in February.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a shallower dip to 51.0. The 50.0 threshold separates expansion from contraction territory.

The reading prompted fresh warnings that the region is facing the specter of looming stagflation — a toxic combination of high inflation and unemployment, and stalling growth.

“The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented Tuesday.

“Firms’ costs are rising at the fastest rate for over three years amid the surge in energy prices and choking of supply chains resulting from the war. Supplier delays have jumped to their highest since mid-2022, largely linked to shipping issues.”

Euro zone companies surveyed by S&P Global scaled back hiring marginally during March, as bosses lowered output expectations for the year when compared with February forecasts, according to S&P Global economists.

“Stagflation” is often seen as a “worse case scenario” for economies and poses a dilemma for central banks because the tools they’d usually use to combat high inflation — higher interest rates — can stifle growth and employment, while lowering rates can boost growth but increase demand and inflation.

The euro zone is not alone in seeing private sector activity slow due to the Iran war, with PMI data from India earlier on Tuesday also showing output growth slowed to its lowest level since October 2022.

In revised forecasts released last week, the European Central Bank now expects economic growth of 0.9% in 2026, and headline inflation to average 2.6% this year.

That outlook could be optimistic, however, with S&P Global’s Williamson noting that the PMI survey’s price gauge was indicative of inflation accelerating close to 3%, “with cost pressure likely to add still further to selling price inflation in the coming months.”

“The outlook depends on the duration of the war and any potential lasting impact on energy and supply chains, but the flash PMI data underscore how the European Central Bank is no longer in a ‘good place’ with respect to growth and inflation,” Williamson said.

The March PMIs show the conflict in Iran is already having a significant impact on the euro area economy, J.P. Morgan’s Raphael Brun-Aguerre noted Tuesday.

“Overall, the survey points to a large near-term inflation impact from higher energy that could feed into core prices … The energy price shock could hit business profitability and has already damaged demand conditions and output more broadly in the region. Business sentiment is being hit significantly. European Commission data [out Monday] already showed a large hit to consumer confidence in March,” he noted in emailed analysis.

Early Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was time for negotiations with Iran, given the “critical” nature of the global energy crisis.

“The situation is critical for the energy supply allies worldwide. We all feel the knock-on effects on gas and oil prices, our businesses and our societies, but it is of utmost importance that we come to a solution that is negotiated, and this puts an end to the hostilities that we see in the Middle East.”

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that he’s more worried about inflation now than he is unemployment, even with apparent progress made on the war with Iran.

In a CNBC interview, the central banker said policymaking is difficult in the current environment. He spoke shortly after President Donald Trump announced that progress had been made in negotiations with Iran and that further attacks on energy infrastructure would be halted for five days as talks continue.

“The most important thing is to figure out the through line of what is happening,” Goolsbee said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “What makes this a fraught but intense moment is nobody can tell us what is going to happen on the ground in the conflict in the Middle East, and how long that lasts.”

Goolsbee had dissented on a rate cut in December and said he agreed with the majority to hold short-term rates steady at the January and March meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. He is not an FOMC voter this year but will vote again next year.

Following Monday’s war news, traders, in volatile market action, upped bets of a rate hike by the end of the year but still expect a cut in 2027. Stocks spiked higher and oil prices plunged.

FOMC officials last week indicated a majority still expect a cut this year and another the next. However, Goolsbee said that his inclination will depend on the progress of inflation, and he cautioned against “a repeat of the team-transitory mistake” where the Fed underestimated the severity of inflation in 2021.

“I remain fairly optimistic that by the end of ’26 rates could go down, but I wanted to see proof that we’re back on an inflation headed to 2%. This [war] definitely throws a wrench into the plans. We do need to see progress,” he said.

President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday that, following talks with Iranian authorities, he ordered the U.S. military to postpone strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

He told CNBC’s Joe Kernen in a phone call shortly after the post that “we are very intent on making a deal with Iran.”

However, Iranian state media, citing an unnamed “senior security official” in a post on Telegram disputed Trump’s description of conversations, saying direct or indirect talks have not taken place between Washington and Tehran.

“There is been no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this kind of psychological warfare, neither the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions nor will there be peace in the energy markets,” state media reported the official as saying.

Trump countered later Monday morning that the U.S. and Iran “have had very, very strong talks” yielding “major points of agreement,” including that Tehran will “never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump, speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, said his son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff participated in those talks Sunday evening with “a top person” in Iran.

“They want, very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal too,” he said. “We’re going to get together today by, probably, phone, because it’s … very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we’ll, at some point, very, very soon, meet.”

Trump said that if the five-day halt in strikes goes well, the parties could end up “settling this.”

“Otherwise, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out,” he said.

The president also said that he believes Israel will be “very happy” with the progress made with Iran so far.

He added that the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened very soon, if this works.”

Asked who would control the strait, Trump said it might be “jointly controlled” by himself and “whoever the ayatollah is,” suggesting that such a move would come as part of a “very serious form of regime change.”

In his Truth Social post earlier Monday, Trump said that the U.S. and Iran had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.”

The U.S. president said these talks would continue through the week. It was not immediately clear who participated in the talks or when and where they were held.

U.S. stock futures rallied, the dollar fell against other major currencies, and oil prices tumbled on the news.

Speaking with Kernen, Trump said discussions with Iranian authorities had been very intense and that he remains hopeful something very substantive can be achieved.

The U.S. president also insisted on the same call that what is unfolding in Iran can be described as regime change, Kernen reported.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for additional information about the purported talks, and did not immediately respond to Iran’s claim that no such negotiations are underway.

The U.S. president on Saturday issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iran’s power plants.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

The deadline had been due to expire on Monday evening in Washington.

Iranian Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf had said critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent weeks.

The Iran war has stoked global inflation fears and created what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.

Spring is traditionally the busiest season for home sales, and while this year’s market dynamics have shifted strongly in favor of buyers, broader forces in the economy are creating significant challenges.

The most important factor in any season is mortgage rates. They were expected to be lower this year, as the Federal Reserve dropped its lending rate to counter inflation, but the war with Iran has turned that on its head. The cost of oil is shooting higher, leading to rising inflation and causing the Fed to reconsider.

Now U.S. bond yields are rising, with mortgage rates following suit.

The average rate on the popular 30-year-fixed mortgage had started this year lower, even briefly dipping below 6% at the end of February, but it rose sharply this week to 6.53% on Friday, the first day of spring, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now just 18 basis points below where it was a year ago.

Higher rates will weigh on affordability, but other factors have flipped the market in favor of buyers. Homes are sitting on the market longer, sellers are increasingly willing to lower prices and the supply of homes for sale is rising, albeit not as quickly as it should be.

“As the housing market approaches the ‘best time to sell’ season, it sits in a precarious position, caught between long-term improvements and sudden short-term instability,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, wrote in a Weekly Housing Trends report. “Everything seems much more unsettled and uncertain than it did just a month ago.”

For the week ending on March 14, active inventory was up 5.6% year-over-year, according to Realtor.com, but new listings were down 1.4%.

This means the number of homes for sale is climbing not because there are so many more sellers, but because the homes on the market are sitting. That may be because potential sellers who expected to put their homes on the market are holding back due to concerns about the implications of the Iran war.

“I think inventory is the bigger decider,” said Jonathan Miller, director of markets for StreetMatrix, a housing market data provider. “The idea that rates are going to noticeably come down this year, I think, is generally off the table.”

Given the disparity in inventory across different markets, this spring is likely to be a tale of many cities.

For example, in February, active listings in Las Vegas, Seattle, Cincinnati and Washington, D.C., were all up over 20% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com. Listings in San Francisco, Chicago, Miami and Orlando, Florida, meanwhile, were lower than a year ago.

Home prices had been cooling off for much of the past year, and they continue to do so. Prices were just 0.7% higher in January than they were in January 2025, according to Cotality. That’s down from the 3.5% annual growth at the beginning of 2025. Higher mortgage rates, however, are taking away from that improved affordability.

The Northeast and Midwest are seeing the strongest price appreciation, led by New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin and Nebraska, due to tighter supply in those regions, according to Cotality.

Cotality ranks 69% of top metropolitan housing markets as overvalued, noting undervalued markets like Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco and Honolulu could see a rebound in prices in 2027.

“Ultimately, locations with consistent job growth will remain the primary engines for price appreciation, but they also have larger inventory deficits which are driving pressure on home prices,” Selma Hepp, Cotality’s chief economist, wrote in a recent report.

As for new construction, buyers are likely to see better deals this spring, as builders are struggling to unload an oversupply of homes. Inventories hit a 9.7-month supply in January, according to the U.S. Census, as the result of sales falling to the lowest level since 2022. A growing share of builders cut prices in March, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

“Affordability for buyers and builders remains a top concern,” Bill Owens, chairman of the NAHB, said in a release. “Many buyers remain on the fence waiting for lower interest rates and due to economic uncertainty. Builders are facing elevated land, labor and construction costs and nearly two-thirds continue to offer sales incentives in a bid to firm up the market.”

Construction of single-family homes also dropped in January. While some are blaming rough winter weather for the weakness in the new home market, builders are consistently battling affordability for both their customers and their own bottom lines. Costs for land, labor and materials have not eased.

“I think this is not going to be an inspiring year for the housing market. It started out with high expectations. I think the war, whatever the outcome, has really dampened enthusiasm and kept uncertainty really high,” StreetMatrix’s Miller said.

Supply measures alone won’t be enough to mitigate “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency warned on Friday.

Instead of waiting for disrupted production to recover, lowering demand could ease pressure on consumers and help bring prices down more quickly.

Minimizing road and air transport, working from home where possible, and switching to electric cooking could significantly help cushion the shock for consumers, the agency said.

Heightened geopolitical risk has rattled traders, sending not only crude prices higher but also sharply increasing costs for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, which directly impact transportation, logistics and consumer prices.

Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022 as supply has been severely disrupted, mostly due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The strait is a narrow maritime corridor off Iran’s coast that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and normally carries about a fifth of global oil consumption. 

Countries have already begun tapping strategic petroleum reserves, with hundreds of millions of barrels slated for release. 

The IEA last week agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war — the largest such action in the organization’s history — without providing a timeline for when the stocks would enter the market. 

“Addressing demand is a critical and immediate tool to reduce pressure [on] consumers by improving affordability and supporting energy security,” the IAE said Friday, as it laid out a range of measures that can be taken by households and businesses to lower demand.

Among the most impactful steps are encouraging remote work where possible, increasing carpooling and public transit use, and cutting back on non-essential air travel.

Measures focus primarily on road transport, which accounts for around 45% of global oil demand.

Working from home where possible reduces fuel demand for commuting, while lowering speed limits, shifting from private cars to public transport, and alternating private vehicle access in cities, could further reduce congestion and fuel consumption, the agency said. 

Measures to shift liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) use away from transport and towards essential applications like cooking can also help keep prices lower, as can adopting alternative clean cooking solutions that reduce reliance on LPG.

Countries are also looking to fiscal measures to ease the pressure on consumers and prevent sharp rises in fuel prices that could add to inflationary pressures.

Spain is planning to reduce the value-added-tax (VAT) on fuel to 10% from 21%, according to a local media report citing sources familiar with the matter. The government will also eliminate a 5% tax on electricity, according to the report. 

Italy on Wednesday cut excise duties on fuel, while Germany’s finance ministry has said it is looking at ways to shield consumers from rising fuel prices, such as introducing a windfall tax on oil companies. 

Early Friday, international Brent crude futures with May delivery rose 1.3% to $109.93 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery traded largely flat at $96.20.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report

The Strait of Hormuz shutdown caused by the war in Iran is jacking up fertilizer prices, hitting farmers in their pocketbooks and threatening to raise food prices.

Now, Democrats trying to win the U.S. midterm elections in November see another new opportunity to pound the affordability crisis and turn the tide after years of losses in the states that produce crops and livestock.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for fertilizer, including about 50% of global nitrogen-rich urea fertilizers, according to the Fertilizer Institute, the industry’s trade association. The strait has been effectively impassable since President Donald Trump launched the assault, which is now in its third week with no end in sight.

The closure has spiked fertilizer prices just before planting season, potentially scrambling decision-making for farmers across the U.S. And it comes on top of already low commodity prices that have lingered for years and eaten into farmers’ margins.

“We’re in uncharted territory,” Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer who sits on the board of the National Corn Growers Association, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s like a code red.”

Frostic said he purchased nitrogen fertilizer, critical for corn crops, in January for around $350 per ton. That same product, he said, is now closing in on $600 per ton.

The murky farm outlook also comes eight months before the midterm elections that could cost Trump control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Democrats, who are trying to win competitive seats in farm-heavy states such as Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska, are jumping on the high fertilizer prices as a new example of the affordability issue that continues to haunt Trump and Republicans.

“There are tons of people just like me in our district who are like, I don’t get it. I don’t understand. It was already hard, and now they’re making it harder, and nobody knows why,” said Jake Johnson, a public school teacher who is running for Congress in Minnesota’s first District against incumbent Republican Rep. Brad Finstad.

“Our number one job as a campaign and what we want to talk about to every single person we talk to is we need ways to make things cheaper,” Johnson said.

The rural entreaties from Democrats come after years of bleeding support in the country’s rural, agrarian states in the middle of the country. Trump in 2024 won nearly every state in the Midwest, with exceptions in Minnesota and Illinois. He also dominated the county-by-county contest, according to the Center for Politics, winning 2,660 counties compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 451, which were centered in the most populated parts of the U.S.

Turning the tide in rural America has been a longtime goal for Democrats, but has often proved elusive. In Iowa in 2018, Democrats won 3 out of the 4 congressional seats in the state. Now, Republicans control all four. But with Trump’s economic approval plummeting and Democrats leading in the generic ballot, Democrats have high hopes this year.

Johnson said farmers in particular are recoiling from Trump’s tariff campaign, which saw his White House authorize a roughly $12 billion bailout last year. The war now adds a new inflationary wrinkle.

On Thursday, more than 50 agriculture trade groups including the Farm Bureau wrote another letter to Trump, asking him to include farm aid in the forthcoming defense package.

“As the Administration considers what needs to be included in a defense supplemental package in
the coming weeks, we urge you to include much-needed market relief for America’s farmers,” the letter read.

Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., the Senate Agriculture Committee chair, said he’s working with the administration to quickly find a solution to the fertilizer issue.