Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026.
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The U.S. on Thursday launched new trade investigations into 60 economies to determine whether they failed to curb imports of goods made with forced labor.
The probes, conducted under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974, include China, the European Union, India and Mexico, according to a statement from the United States Trade Representative.
“Despite the international consensus against forced labor, governments have failed to impose and effectively enforce measures banning goods produced with forced labor from entering their markets,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said.
“These investigations will determine whether foreign governments have taken sufficient steps to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labor and how the failure to eradicate these abhorrent practices impacts U.S. workers and businesses,” he said.
Section 301 permits the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries found to have engaged in unfair trade practices without congressional authorization — legal authority that Trump had used during his first term to levy duties on Chinese goods.
The new investigations could ultimately replace at least some of the reciprocal tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down last month.
The forced-labor probes follow Section 301 investigations launched on Wednesday, targeting excess industrial capacity across more than a dozen economies that also included China, the EU and Mexico.
The investigation come as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Paris this weekend to continue bilateral trade and economic talks, and weeks ahead of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
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Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), accompanied by Sen. Angus King (I-ME) (L), speaks as United States Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command (USNORTHCOM) Commander Gen. Gregory Guillot, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas Security Affairs Mark Ditlevson, and Department of War Principal Deputy General Counsel Charles Young III, appear at a Senate Committee on Armed Services hearing on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Sen. Elizabeth Warren on Thursday questioned why the U.S. Transportation Command and the State Department were not doing more to get stranded American citizens out of the Middle East amid the war with Iran.
There may still be tens of thousands of U.S. citizens stuck in the region, and the Trump administration has been too slow to act as violence spilled out of Iran into surrounding countries, the Massachusetts Democrat said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.
“Let’s be clear, the Trump administration chose this war. They planned this war for months, and they made no plans to safeguard hundreds of thousands of Americans in the region. There is no excuse for this,” Warren said.
Americans reported feeling stranded in the region in the days immediately after war broke out. A State Department warning for U.S. citizens to “DEPART NOW” to Americans in 14 countries set off a scramble, with some saying they were left to fend for themselves. Amid the criticism, the State Department said last week they were ramping up flights for American to get out of the region.
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While President Donald Trump suggested earlier this week the war would end “very soon,” there is no immediate end in sight, and Americans in the region are trying to contend with an ever-evolving regional conflict.
The State Department has published regular updates on the amount of Americans relocated out of the region since Trump announced the war with Iran on Feb. 28, and on Thursday a spokesperson said nearly 47,000 citizens had returned to the U.S.
The State Department had completed more than two dozen charter flights, and at this point the number of seats offered on those flights outstrips demand, the spokesperson said.
“While commercial flight availability across the region continues to improve, Department of State charter flight and ground transport operations continue to operate,” the spokesperson said without providing a name, responding to an email sent to the agency’s media inquiries account.
Gen. Randall Reed, commander of TRANSCOM, testified at the Thursday hearing that his command had assisted in the airlift of hundreds of Americans out of the region.
But Warren said the effort has fallen short.
“What I’m trying to understand is why you’re not doing more,” Warren asked Reed. “Because I’m hearing from my constituents who are stranded there, who’ve been stranded there for two weeks and they’re asking for help, and they’re not getting help from the U.S. government.”
Bringing Americans home
While many Americans have left and some are choosing to stay in the region, others are still stuck. The State Department spokesperson said the department was “now working 24/7 to bring Americans home.”
Some lawmakers are taking matters into their own hands.
Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., posted to X about a trip she took this week to the Middle East to help a family from her district that was stuck there.
“The family I traveled here for are safely home. But then I learned about more families. Hundreds of families. Thousands. Still stranded,” Mace wrote.
Congressional caseworkers, the aides who field inquiries from constituents, have similarly reported that Americans are feeling stranded and frustrated with the federal government’s response to the war.
One Senate Democratic caseworker — who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she is not authorized to speak to the press — said she has heard from constituents in places like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Israel and Kuwait. Some are tourists, others are students or Americans in the region for work, in some cases with their families.
“People there that are in the Middle East, just wanting to leave but having absolutely no way to leave, they are scared, they are terrified and they are feeling abandoned,” the caseworker said. “Their families here are scared and terrified and wondering why the U.S. government has not already gotten their loved one home.”
Inconsistent messaging from the government did not help, the Senate caseworker, and a House Democratic caseworker, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, both said.
In the first days of the war, the guidance to Americans in the region was to shelter in place, the House aide said. But the “DEPART NOW” message on March 2 caused panic. The air space was closed in many countries in the region, making commercial flights an unlikely route home. The government provided a phone number for a help line, but that had a long wait. When they did get through, they were at times told they were on their own, the caseworker said.
“What we were hearing from constituents was absolute panic,” the House aide said.
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Travelers wait in line at a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint at William P. Hobby Airport in Houston, Texas, US, on Monday, March 9, 2026.
Mark Felix | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The surge in fuel prices since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago is already driving up airfare. Consumers’ appetite for travel this year will dictate just how much.
Cathay Pacific on Thursday said it would roughly double fuel surcharges on tickets starting March 18.
Earlier this week, Australia’s Qantas said it israising fares to help cover its costs, Scandinavian Airlines said the “unusually rapid and substantial increase” in fuel prompted it to raise prices, and Air New Zealand pulled its financial outlook “until fuel markets and operating conditions stabilise,” adding that it has made “initial fare adjustments.”
“If the conflict leads to continued elevated jet fuel costs, the airline may need to take further pricing action and adjust its network and schedule as required,” Air New Zealand said.
U.S. airline CEOs and other executives will update investors on Tuesday at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington, D.C.
Analysts expect an earnings hit at least in the first quarter if not the first half of the year, though the impact will depend on how long higher fuel prices last.
“We think a hit to 1Q EPS appears almost certain at this point,” UBS airline analysts Atul Maheswari and Thomas Wadewitz wrote in a note last week.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said last week on the sidelines of an event at Harvard University that higher fares were likely on the way because of the surge in fuel prices.
Kirby said travel demand is still strong, however. Two other senior airline executives at U.S. carriers, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to media, also said travel demand has held up. If those trends persist, it could give airlines more pricing power, but that will depend on the war’s duration.
“Airlines never met a higher fare they didn’t want,” said Scott Keyes, founder of flight deal company Going, previously known as Scott’s Cheap Flights.
So what should consumers do?
Keyes said travelers can’t lose by booking early, as long as they’re not buying restrictive basic economy tickets. That way, customers can try to exchange or cancel their tickets and buy cheaper ones if airfare ends up falling.
“If you book a $500 summer flight today, and two weeks from now the price drops to $350, you can call up the airline and get the $150 difference back as a credit. Heads you win; tails the airlines lose,” he said.
Read more about the Middle East conflict’s travel impact
Fuel costs
Jet fuel is airlines’ biggest cost after labor, accounting for about a fifth or more of expenses, depending on the airline.
United alone spent $11.4 billion last year on fuel, at an average price of $2.44 a gallon, according to a securities filing. U.S. jet fuel on Wednesday was going for $3.78 a gallon, according to Platts.
Jefferies airline analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a note Thursday that she expects “the most acute financial impact to airlines from surging oil prices to be in the next 30-90 days as airlines have been booking yields for close-in flights assuming a much lower fuel price and carriers cannot retroactively raise fares.”
She said Delta Air Lines and United, which produce most U.S. airline profits, are better positioned than other carriers because of their high-end demand. Risks to demand, particularly for more price-sensitive customers, include the recent jump in gasoline prices.
Jet fuel has more than doubled in some regions since the first U.S.–Israel attacks on Iran on Feb. 28.
Oil prices surged to roughly four-year highs after the initial strikes. Energy prices have swung wildly since then as traders assess just how long the war — and all the logistics headaches — could last.
U.S. jet fuel prices were up more than 60% from before the attacks to a peak last week, according to pricing data assessed by Platts. Jet fuel can rise by a greater degree than crude because it includes the price of processing and ever-more difficult and costly transportation from oil fields to refineries to airplane fuel tanks.
On Feb. 27, the day before the before the attacks, the cost to fill the fuel tanks of a Boeing 737-800 would have would have been about $17,000 based on average prices in New York, Houston, Chicago and Los Angeles, compiled by Argus. Less than a week later, on March 5, it would have cost more than $27,000, based on Argus prices. On Tuesday, after oil prices fell following President Donald Trump’s comment that the Iran war could end “very soon,” it would have cost around $23,000.
Line Service Technician Austin Beadles refuels a plane using a Federal Aviation Administration approved unleaded aviation fuel at Sheltair at Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Airport in Broomfield on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. Sheltair, a fixed-base operator, will offer the Swift UL94 unleaded aviation alternative gas to pilots. (Photo by Matthew Jonas/MediaNews Group/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images)
Matthew Jonas | Boulder Daily Camera | MediaNews Group | Getty Images
After prior fuel price surges, airlines started making customers pay for bags — or charging them more. Even seemingly minor changes in weight can save airlines hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars, a year in fuel. United in 2018 changed to a lighter paper stock for its in-flight magazine. In 2014, American Airlines said it would switch to digital manuals for flight attendants, following changes for pilots. It said at the time that it would save $650,000 in fuel a year.
All about capacity
High fuel prices don’t automatically mean higher fares. The ongoing strong demand for travel is a key factor and so is capacity, or the amount that carriers fly.
If airlines raise fares and passengers balk, then capacity will likely go down in the form of fewer frequencies on a route or broader cuts, in more severe cases.
“Airlines love to say fuel is expensive so you have to pay more. What they’re doing is they’re setting the expectation,” said Courtney Miller, founder of Visual Approach Analytics, an airline industry advisory firm. “They price to prevent empty seats.”
If fuel prices come down, “they’re not suddenly saying ‘We’re making too much money,'” Miller added. “But they are likely to add another flight.”
Capacity, especially to and from the Middle East, is constrained because of airspace closures and other stop-and-start flights. More than 46,000 flights have been canceled to and from the region since the Feb. 28 attacks began, aviation data firm Cirium said.
Those constraints are driving up fares as well as demand, as United’s Kirby said, from regions where customers are looking for alterative routes.
Airspace closures are also requiring airlines to take longer, more fuel-guzzling routes, but many have strong demand, too.
Qantas, for example, told CNBC that its flight from Perth, Australia, to London is temporarily stopping in Singapore to refuel, allowing it to pick up another 60 customers, and that its Perth-London and Perth-Paris routes are more than 90% full this month, 15 percentage points higher than normal for this time of year.
Finnair said the increased demand for travel to Asia from Helsinki has pushed up its prices by 15% on average.
“The impact of higher fuel prices will be reflected in market fares with a delay, as airlines typically hedge at least part of their fuel purchases,” it said.
Airlines have been grappling with airspace closures for years, including from on-and-off conflict in the Middle East and since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, that have left a large swath of airspace out of use for many carriers.
‘You can’t dry up an airport’
Most U.S. airlines no longer hedge fuel costs, or lock in prices using futures and other securities. Southwest Airlines was one of the last holdouts, and it quit last year. A spokesman for the Dallas-based airline told CNBC that Southwest currently has “no plans” to resume hedging.
That leaves U.S. carriers more susceptible to price swings.
Travelers at William P. Hobby Airport in Houston, Texas, US, on Monday, March 9, 2026.
Mark Felix | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Kirby said there would likely be an impact to United’s first-quarter results and to the second quarter if the war — and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel — persists. However, he said demand was increasing sharply from regions that have been affected by the thousands of flight cancellations and airspace closures in the Middle East.
Because of airlines’ upbeat outlooks on demand to start the year, “the environment is conducive for passing along fare increases. Further, should jet fuel stay higher for longer, it should help push off-peak capacity lower,” supporting unit revenues, UBS analysts said.
Rick Joswick, who heads of near-term oil research and analytics at S&P Global Energy, told CNBC that “demand for jet fuel is inelastic. You cannot shortchange an airport. If the cost of jet fuel goes up, it’s not like the plane will choose not to fly that day.
“You can’t dry up an airport,” he said.
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Gasoline prices at a Uno-X gas station in Copenhagen, Denmark, on March 9, 2026.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Denmark’s energy minister urged citizens of the Scandinavian country to cut back on energy use and ditch cars as the price of oil continues to skyrocket amid the Middle East conflict.
Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s minister for climate, energy, and utilities, said Wednesday that the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran has driven the country to lean on its oil reserves in light of “towering oil prices” with no end to the conflict in sight.
“What the Danes should please, please, please do is that if there is any energy consumption that you can do without, if it is not strictly necessary to drive the car, then don’t do it,” he said in an interview with local broadcaster DR, translated by Google.
If Denmark saves energy in the near future, there will be two positive effects that can be felt both by citizens and the government, he said.
“Firstly, it can be felt in the private wallet, and secondly, it can help stretch our reserves so that they last longer,” Aagaard said.
Oil concerns remain elevated
Similar warnings have been issued across countries worldwide. In the U.K., motoring groups such as the AA have called on drivers to cut “non-essential journeys,” and change their driving style to conserve fuel.
Vietnam’s Ministry for Industry and Trade encouraged businesses to adopt remote working arrangements and reduce travel and transport demand to ensure national energy security.
Meanwhile, the Philippine government implemented a temporary four-day workweek in certain executive branches to conserve energy and reduce fuel use.
Concerns over oil prices have remained elevated this week, as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt due to the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels. A potential inflation spike could follow if the passage remains closed, and threatens to raise the cost of living, from petrol to groceries.
Oil prices jumped over 8% to more than $100 per barrel earlier on Thursday. The West Texas Intermediate was last up 4.6% to $91 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was trading nearly 5% higher at $96.
To assuage these fears, the International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war.
The IEA, which represents 32 member countries across Europe, North America, and northeast Asia, said the reserves would be released over a specific time frame, depending on the needs of its member countries.
Meanwhile, the U.S announced that it would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with shipments expected to begin next week and take roughly 120 days to complete.
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Iranian attack on two vessels on Gulf near Iraq marks ‘direct and forceful’ response, analyst says
Iran’s attack on two vessels on the Gulf near Iraq marks a ‘direct and forceful’ response to the International Energy Agency’s announcement, an analyst has said.
The International Energy Agency, made up of major oil-consuming nations, advised releasing 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s.
400 million barrels is roughly what the world would consume in four days
Of the IEA’s decision, Trump said: “[It] will substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world.”
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Trump had authorised the release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve from next week.
Last night, explosion-filled Iranian boats attacked vessels on the Gulf near Iraq.
Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG said:
This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA’s overnight announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices.
Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.
AFP | Getty Images
Three more foreign ships were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight, authorities said, as attacks intensify on vessels sailing through or near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
The latest incidents come after three separate vessels sustained damage in Gulf waters on Wednesday and as Iran warns oil prices could climb to $200 a barrel.
A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile about 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, a major port city near Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center said on Thursday. The incident caused a small fire onboard, and all crew were reported to be safe.
Earlier, two foreign oil tankers were left ablaze in Iraqi waters after having been struck near the port Umm Qasr, near the city of Basra.
At least one person was killed in the attack, according to multiple media reports, citing Iraqi port officials, and 38 crew members were rescued from the ships. Iraq’s General Company for Ports was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent days.
The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.
Attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf have ratcheted up fears of a prolonged economic shock.
“Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, said Wednesday, according to Reuters.
Read more U.S.-Iran war news
Crude prices were sharply higher on Thursday morning, as traders closely monitored supply risks and appeared to shrug off the International Energy Agency’s push to release a record 400 million barrels of oil.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 5.7% higher at $97.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery rose 5.3% at $91.88.
The IEA on Wednesday did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market. It said that the reserves would be released over a time frame that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.
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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media next to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 11, 2026.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he’s not worried about Iran executing a terror attack within the United States in retaliation for the ongoing war by the U.S. and Israel.
“No, I don’t,” Trump told a reporter outside the White House when asked if he feared such a domestic attack.
Trump also touted progress in the war against Iran, which is in its 11th day, before departing for a trip to Kentucky and Ohio.
“Right now, they’ve lost their Navy, their Air Force. They have no anti-aircraft apparatus at all,” the president said. “Their leaders are gone, and we could do a lot worse.”
Trump said the U.S. military is “leaving certain things” in Iran, which could be destroyed by the afternoon, if need be, and “they literally would never be able to build that country back.”
He said the U.S. military had destroyed about 16 of Iran’s mine-layers.
Asked if Iran had mined the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most sensitive choke point for oil shipments, Trump said, “We don’t think so.”
Trump, referring to the CEOs of major oil companies, said, “I think they should” send tankers through the narrow strait, which has remained effectively closed because of the war.
A spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned Monday that tankers passing through the strait “must be very careful.”
The Strait of Hormuz, which lies off the southern coast of Iran, connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
The insurance giant Chubb said Wednesday that it will serve as lead underwriter for a U.S.-government-led program to provide insurance to ships passing through the strait.
Read more U.S.-Iran war news
Trump on Wednesday brushed off a question about a report by The New York Times, which said that “newly released video adds to the evidence that an American missile likely hit an Iranian elementary school where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed.”
The president again criticized the leadership of Spain for not helping the U.S. war effort.
“We may cut off trade with Spain,” said Trump, who has a penchant for using tariffs and other retaliatory trade practices as leverage against other countries.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has incurred Trump’s wrath for barring the U.S. military from using two bases in Andalusia to launch strikes on Iran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in an X post on Wednesday, wrote that in conversations with “the presidents of the governments of Russia and Pakistan, while announcing the Islamic Republic’s commitment to peace and tranquility in the region, I emphasized that the only way to end the war that began with the warmongering of the Zionist regime and America is the acceptance of Iran’s indisputable rights, payment of reparations, and a firm international obligation to prevent their aggression from recurring.”
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In an aerial view, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage at the Bryan Mound site is seen on October 19, 2022 in Freeport, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, the largest such action in the organization’s history.
The IEA did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market. It said that the reserves would be released over a timeframe that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.
“The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
“Oil markets are global so the response to major disruptions needs to be global too,” Birol said. “Energy security is the founding mandate of the IEA, and I am pleased that IEA Members are showing strong solidarity in taking decisive action together.”
Energy analysts warned ahead of the release that even the IEA’s maximum drawdown capability would likely not be able to offset the nearly 20 million barrels per day that typically transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway is a narrow maritime corridor off Iran’s coast that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas usually passes through it.
Oil prices have been extremely volatile since the outbreak of the Iran war on Feb. 28, with global benchmark Brent crude rallying to nearly $120 a barrel at the start of the week, before falling back below $90.
Earlier in the day, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the country intended to release oil stockpiles from its national reserves as early as next week, citing an “exceptionally high level of dependence” on the Middle East.
“Without waiting for an official decision on the release of international stockpiles in cooperation with the International Energy Agency (IEA), Japan has decided to take the lead in releasing its stockpiles as early as the 16th of this month in order to ease supply and demand in the international energy market,” Takaichi told reporters, according to public broadcaster NHK.
Read more U.S.-Iran war news
IEA members currently hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.
The global energy watchdog had previously released an estimated 182 million barrels of oil to support the energy market following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
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Iranian forces insists ships in Strait of Hormuz are ‘legitimate targets’
Iranian forces have declared ships in the Strait of Hormuz belonging to the US, Israel and their allies are ‘legitimate targets’ following three fires on commercial vessels earlier today.
‘Any vessel whose oil cargo or the vessel itself belongs to the United States, the Zionist regime or their hostile allies will be considered legitimate targets,’ said the military’s central operational command, Khatam Al-Anbiya, in a statement carried by state TV.
It reiterated that Iran’s armed forces ‘will not allow a single litre of oil to transit’ through the strait, adding that the ‘closure of this strait is the result of conditions imposed by the US and the Zionist regime,’ referring to Israel.
Meanwhile, Iran has also accused the United States and Israel of striking a maritime ambulance boat at an island in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, local media reported.
‘Following the US-Zionist attacks this afternoon, a maritime ambulance stationed at the dock of Hormuz Island was hit by missiles,’ Mehr news agency reported, showing footage of the boat on fire.
It said the vessel transports emergency patients from the island to Bandar Abbas in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province. Other media carried similar reports.
German Rheinmetall MAN tactical military transport vehicles parked in the Edvard Peperko military barracks.
Luka Dakskobler | Lightrocket | Getty Images
German arms maker Rheinmetall said it sees this year’s sales growing by as much as 45% as it reported 2025 revenue growing 29% year-over-year, missing expectations.
It also said it was in a “prime position to help the US replenish their missile stockpiles” used in the war in Iran, such as supplying critical solid rocket motors.
In a presentation to accompany earnings on Wednesday, the company said “higher spend for missile restocking and air defence” was “inevitable.”
It comes as defense companies are expected to be on the receiving end of governments’ hiked spending on military capabilities, amid increased demand due to the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Rheinmetall expects its order backlog to more than double to 135 billion euros this year.
“The tense security situation underpins the promising position of the Group, whose products are playing an increasingly important role for the increase in defence capabilities in Germany and its partner countries,” Rheinmetall said.
The defense giant, Germany’s seventh-largest company by market value, issued its 2026 outlook, which it had hinted at during a preclose call in early February.
Group sales are expected to grow by between 40% and 45% to between 14 billion ($16.26 billion) and 14.5 billion euros. Operating result margin is expected to be around 19%, up from 18.5% in 2025. Jefferies analysts called the guidance “realistic but soft.”
“The world is changing rapidly, and Rheinmetall is well prepared,” said CEO Armin Papperger in a statement.
“With our products, we will have a significant share in the increasing equipment spend of the armed forces and deliver what modern armed forces need in the 21st century.”
Shares fell 5.2% in early trading on Wednesday while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.7%.
Shares of defense stocks have risen over the past year.
Sales grew by 29% over the full year to 9.94 billion euros ($11.56 billion), missing expectations of 10.53 billion euros, according LSEG estimates.
Earnings before tax and interest came in at 1.68 billion euros, compared with estimates of 1.75 billion euros, while the order backlog reached a record high of 63.8 billion euros, a 36% jump from the previous year.
“As budget approvals resumed toward year‑end and defence spending picked up across Europe – particularly in Germany – we expect delayed programmes to convert into contracts, supporting a rebound in nominations and reinforcing the company’s already elevated backlog,” noted Morningstar analyst Loredana Muharremi ahead of the print.
In February, the company indicated sales for this year would come in at between 13.2 billion and 14.1 billion euros, and EBIT between 2.4 billion and 2.8 billion euros, both more than 10% below expectations. Shares subsequently fell 6.5%.
Barclays analysts in February called the share move following the indicated guidance “a marked over-reaction,” saying that “expectations are high, and shares continue to be very sensitive to any information that comes out.”
Noting some confusion over the like-for-like numbers this year, given recent changes to the business structure, the analysts said that weapon and ammunition growth will remain elevated, and there is scope for its naval business to be resilient, too.
“From a structural perspective we think nothing has really changed here: the backlog growth in 2026 will be material.”
Rheinmetall shares have risen about 540% over the past three years, as a leading provider of land systems and ammunition in Europe.
Gains, however, have moderated over the past year as some investors question whether shares have reached their full value and if growth can be sustained long-term. Coming into Wednesday trading, the stock was up just 3.4% year-to-date.
Rheinmetall and other defense firms like Britain’s Bae Systems and Italy’s Leonardo are viewed as well-placed to capitalize on hiked spending by European governments over the next five years against a backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Increased demand
Rheinmetall is looking to sell its civilian automotive to focus purely on meeting demand for its defence business. It’s also now active in the naval sector following its acquisition of shipbuilder Naval Vessels Lürssen, which closed in February.
Gains later pared some gains, and while large European defense stocks are up on average between 5% and 10% since the first strikes, Rheinmetall was largely flat over that period, coming into Wednesday trading.
Smaller country-peer Renk’s CEO Alexander Sagel said earlier this month that the Iran war could drive increasing demand for defense capabilities in the Gulf region.
In November last year, Rheinmetall predicted its sales would quintuple over the next five years, boosted by robust demand for its weapons systems amid geopolitical tensions and the war in Ukraine. The bulk of the estimated 50 billion euros in revenue by 2030 will come from its vehicle systems and weapon and ammunition businesses, the company forecasted. It also sees operating margin expanding to about 20%, up from 15.2% in 2024.
In 2025, the Weapon and Ammunition business grew 27% to 3.53 billion euros. Its largest unit, Vehicle Systems, which makes tanks and military trucks, grew 32% to 4.99 billion euros over the year.
It proposed a dividend of 11.50 euros per share, up from 8.10 euros last year, on the back of the growing sales and profits.
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