A cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz has been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said in an update on Wednesday morning.

The strike forced the crew of the ship, which has not been identified, to evacuate, the UKMTO said. It urged vessels to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity while authorities continue to investigate.

The incident took place 11 nautical miles north of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO said there is no report of any environmental impact.

Shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near standstill since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with multiple incidents reported in recent days.

The waterway is a narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

U.S. forces sank several Iranian ships on Tuesday, including 16 minelayers, near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command. The update followed an earlier announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that said if Iran had put any mines in the waterway, “we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!”

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Analysts warned on Monday that there was no precedent for the surging price of oil, as the Middle East crisis deepens fears of prolonged production shut-ins and disruption to shipments through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices were on track for their biggest-ever jump in a single day on Monday, before significantly paring gains, following a fresh wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran over the weekend. Oil depots were among the targets.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 12.8% higher at $104.53 per barrel on Monday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen nearly 12% higher at $101.76.

Brent futures had climbed as high as $119.5 per barrel earlier in the trading day, while WTI hit a session high of $119.48.

Neil Atkinson, former head of oil at the International Energy Agency, said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is something energy markets had never seen before. Unless something changes very soon “we are in a potentially game-changing and unprecedented energy crisis,” he told CNBC on Monday.

Countries across the oil-rich Middle East region have started to scale back crude output. Iraq and Kuwait have already begun to shut-in production, with analysts warning that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia may also be vulnerable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a sustained period.

“Though there are oil stocks around the world, the point is that if this closure of the Strait persists, those oil stocks if they are deployed will be depleted and we are going to be in a situation where, with the oil production actually shut in, in Iraq and possibly in Kuwait and maybe even in time in Saudi Arabia, that we are going to be in a crisis the likes of which we have never seen before,” Atkinson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Asked what this could mean for oil prices, Atkinson replied: “Sorry, we are getting into the realms of educated guesswork here. I mean, there is no precedent for this. The sky is the limit.”

Typically, about 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping traffic has all but halted through this key maritime corridor since the war started.

Oil prices came off their session highs on Monday shortly after the Financial Times reported that finance ministers from G7 economies would hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the IEA.

The U.K.’s Treasury and French government confirmed to CNBC that the call would take place on Monday.

Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that it had been “consensus last week, and to a certain extent still today,” that everyone but Russia had “an interest in normal traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz.”

He added the consensus had been that there was “abundant oil on the water and some strategic reserves to cover any short-term gap.” Goodspeed said he was skeptical of this view as the conflict enters its second week.

“When I think of the probability distribution of possible outcomes here, it seems to me there are many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer than there are scenarios in which normal traffic resumes,” Goodspeed said.

Analysts at Societe Generale, meanwhile, warned that prolonged production shut-ins from Middle East countries “materially increase” the risk of restart complications.

“The UAE is likely the next producer at risk of shutting in output, potentially within the next five to seven days,” the analysts said in a research note published Monday.

“Qatar is also vulnerable, though its oil volumes are modest relative to its LNG exposure. Saudi Arabia faces less immediate risk but shut ins would become plausible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a further two to three weeks,” they added.

— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

Iran’s Kharg Island, a small but strategically vital strip of land nestled in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched by U.S. and Israeli forces even as the Middle East conflict enters its second week.

The coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran, serves as the centerpiece for Iran’s oil industry.

It is estimated that around 90% of the country’s crude exports pass through it before tankers then travel through the Strait of Hormuz. The island is also said to have a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Kharg Island’s economic importance to Iran makes it particularly vulnerable to the threat of military action, although analysts say that any attempt to seize it would likely require a ground troop operation, which the U.S. appears reluctant to undertake.

An attack would also likely prompt further energy market volatility at a time when oil prices have soared to more than $100 a barrel.

Seizing the island “would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline,” which is essential for the regime, according to Petras Katinas, a research fellow in climate, energy and defense at RUSI, a London-based defense think tank.

“Of course, with shipping via the Strait of Hormuz now stopped, they cannot sell oil anyway, but looking ahead, seizure would give the US leverage during negotiations, no matter which regime is in power after the military operation ends,” Katinas told CNBC by email.

“Yet, seizure, would require a ground troop operation, which this administration seems hesitant to undertake. At least for now,” he added.

Crude futures climbed to their highest level since mid-2022 on Monday after the U.S. and Israel launched a fresh wave of strikes across Iran over the weekend.

The attacks struck several Iranian fuel sites, including oil storage depots, signaling a new phase of the war as the sprawling Middle East crisis continues into its tenth day.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded nearly 16% higher at $107.18 per barrel on Monday morning, paring earlier gains, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen 12.5% higher at $102.1.

“If President Trump were to decide to seize this pivotal hub, it would deal a significant blow to the Iranian regime, as it would deprive them of a critical source of revenue. Such a move would be reminiscent of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela at the beginning of the year, when it effectively took control of the country’s oil sector,” Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM, told CNBC By email.

An attempt to seize the island would require U.S. troops on the ground and likely see it become a multi-week target for Iranian drones, Gustafson said in a LinkedIn post last week.

He also warned it could push oil prices up even further and Tehran may even consider an act of self-sabotage to destroy the oil pipeline that feeds it.

“There is one concept or one dimension of this that no one seemingly has mentioned, which is Kharg Island,” Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck Funds, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on March 2.

“It’s where 90% of Iran’s oil gets exported out of — that is a choke point. And if you think that Trump just follows the same playbook that he did in Venezuela. What did he do? He cut off their oil exports, their hard currency, and I think he is going to want that leverage point going forward,” Van Eck said.

Congressional Democrats are demanding that the Trump administration immediately reverse a sanctions waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil as the Iran war wreaks havoc on global energy markets.

“Your recent decision to provide a 30-day waiver is dangerous, self-defeating, and indefensible,” Rep. Sam Liccardo, D-Calif., and Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., wrote in a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which was shared exclusively with CNBC. “This waiver constitutes an inexplicable act of material benefit to the enemy.”

The Treasury Department last week issued a temporary 30-day sanctions carveout to allow India to buy Russian oil, an effort to ease skyrocketing oil prices caused by the war and the traffic standstill at the Strait of Hormuz.

The oil surge comes less than eight months before the November midterm elections that could flip the House of Representatives and the Senate to Democratic control, and polls show voters are souring on President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

After the sanctions waiver was issued, however, it was reported that Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. ships, aircraft, and bases in the region. Gallego and Liccardo warned in the letter against the temporary lifting of the sanctions, which rewards Russia with a windfall as it helps to target U.S. troops in the Middle East.

“Rather than performing the necessary contingency planning that would keep India and other allies supplied with alternative sources, the Administration’s hapless approach has allowed Russia and other adversaries to profit from oil reserves previously constrained by sanctions, supporting Russian efforts to harm U.S. troops and thwart U.S. intelligence,” Gallego and Liccardo wrote in their letter. “By providing this waiver, you have signaled that the United States will reward attacks on our troops, not deter them.”

About 20% of the world’s oil and gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely impassible since the beginning of the U.S. and Israeli assault on Tehran.

Oil prices have surged in the days since the war began. U.S. crude oil topped $108 per barrel on Sunday, as did the global benchmark Brent, which rapidly approached $110 a barrel. That’s caused U.S. gasoline prices to spike, jumping to $3.44 per gallon on Sunday, according to Gasbuddy.

The price spikes come as both parties seek to win over economically anxious voters ahead of the November midterm elections that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress for Trump’s final years in office. Trump promised to lower costs, including gas prices, during his 2024 campaign — but his approval on the economy has plummeted as voters express concern about affordability.

Liccardo and Gallego, who are members of the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee, argue in their letter that the war is only making life less affordable for Americans.

“A prolonged conflict with Iran and wider military operations throughout the Middle East will only deepen the energy cost-crisis, burdening Americans to pay more at the pump, and exacerbating the affordability crisis facing too many Americans,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, millions of barrels of Russian oil are stranded at sea due to U.S. sanctions imposed as punishment for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the move to temporarily allow the sale of Russian oil into India, calling it a “pragmatic step” that diverts oil that eventually would be sold to China. He said it could help alleviate price spikes in the immediate term, until the U.S. achieves its military aims in Iran.

“We’re not helping Russia by just accelerating the sale of their oil to stop the rise of energy prices and keep European and Asian refineries in oil,” Wright said. “We’re just doing pragmatic things to get through a short period that’ll bring in an era of even lower energy prices.”

Pressed on the reports of Russian intelligence sharing, Wright said, “There have been rumors of that, we don’t know if that’s true or not.”

He added: “Russia is an expert at causing trouble around the world.”

Liccardo and Gallego asked Bessent whether he plans to continue offering waivers if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. They also asked whether the Treasury Department had advance notice of the intelligence sharing between Russia and Iran, and whether there are any conditions that would cause the waiver to be revoked.

The pair also demanded information on any emergency oil price stabilization plans the administration had before launching the assault on Iran.

“The questions below address two distinct lines of accountability. The first concerns the specific waiver decision and its immediate consequences for sanctions integrity, energy markets, and troop safety,” they wrote of the questions. “The second concerns the administration’s planning failures prior to its unauthorized military action, and the absence of coordination with allies and partners, whose cooperation is essential to maintaining American sanctions architecture, which this waiver now undermines.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil and gas prices will begin to fall when the U.S. begins to knock out Iran’s ability to hinder tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as Americans weather spiking gas prices due to the war in Iran.

“The plan is to get oil and natural gas and fertilizer and all the products from the Gulf flowing through the straits before too long,” Wright said on Fox News Sunday. “We’re massively attriting their ability to strike with missiles and drones, and that rate of attrition will increase in the coming days. So we’ll be cautious, we’ll be careful, but energy will flow soon.”

President Donald Trump was elected to a second term in the White House in part by promising to lower gas prices and defeat high inflation. He has frequently touted lower gas prices ahead of the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress for the remainder of his term.

But gas prices and oil have spiked since the war began in Iran, with vessel bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz causing the surge. About 20% of global energy supply moves through the strait.

Gas has jumped to over $3.46 per gallon on average in the U.S., according to GasBuddy. U.S. crude oil has soared to more than $91 per barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude has spiked to over $92 per barrel.

Wright said that “one large tanker has already gone through the straits with no issues at all.” Typically, roughly 100 tankers and cargo ships move through the strait every day.

Wright said the disruption would last for “weeks, certainly not months.”

“We believe this is a small price to pay to get to a world where energy prices will return back to where they were,” Wright said. “Iran will finally be defanged, and now you can see more investment, more free flow of trade, less ability to threaten energy supplies.”

When asked about potentially tapping the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce pain at the pump, Wright suggested such a move is not necessary yet. In the past, the SPR has been tapped to mitigate disruptions in oil flows.

“We’re more than happy to use [the SPR] if needed,” Wright said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “But … it’s a logistics issue, where do they need oil? They need oil at refineries in Europe and in Asia.”

Trump has also downplayed the option of tapping the SPR.

“We’ve got a lot of oil. Our country has a tremendous amount,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday. “There’s a lot of oil out there. That’ll get healed very quickly.”

WATCH: No traffic will flow through Strait of Hormuz until a resolution with Iran: Kpler’s Matt Smith

November’s midterm was always supposed to be about affordability. Then, the bombs began falling in Iran.

The expanding U.S. war in the Middle East threatens to scramble the cost-of-living narrative that has so far defined the contest for control of Congress. The election, now less than eight months away, will determine whether President Donald Trump retains his iron grip on Washington or spends his last two years in office fending off Democratic congressional majorities.

Both parties have sought to capitalize on kitchen-table issues, as Americans struggle to keep up with the rising costs of ordinary goods and services. The war in Iran now threatens to exacerbate those concerns — and Democrats are seizing on the opportunity to pillory Trump and Republicans for beginning a conflict that could make life even more expensive for ordinary Americans.

“Because there was no plan going in, I think there will be lots of things that are unforeseen consequences of this,” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview with CNBC. “I mean you saw how much gas has gone up in a day, oil futures have gone up, there are going to be a lot of knock-on effects.”

Some of those knock-on effects have already been evident. U.S. crude oil has jumped past $90 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the war broke out. The global market index Brent has skyrocketed to more than $90 per barrel. That’s caused gas prices to spike to about $3.38 per gallon, according to a national average from Gasbuddy, up more than 35 cents from the week before the war.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, was quick to point out in an interview that liquefied natural gas prices have also spiked. Though U.S. increases have been modest so far, global LNG supply has been squeezed by a shutdown in Qatar — one of the world’s top LNG-producing countries. Natural gas is the largest electricity generator in the U.S., which is critical as the booming data center industry stresses the electric grid and increases utility costs.

“I think what American families have been feeling most acutely for the past year-plus is their energy bills, their utility bills rising,” Huffman said. “A big part of the utility bill increase is that natural gas is getting more and more expensive … a lot of our effort has been pushed into LNG exports instead of strategies that would lower bills for American consumers. That problem is only more amplified by this conflict.”

But a quick operation in Iran is far from certain, and any extended conflict could create an election-year quagmire for Republicans, said Brittany Martinez, executive director at Principles First and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

“If energy prices rise or markets stay volatile, affordability becomes a harder message for Republicans to carry cleanly,” Martinez said. “Republicans will argue that projecting strength abroad prevents greater instability, while Democrats will try to link any sustained price increases to foreign policy decisions. The real question is whether this turns into a prolonged conflict that voters feel in their household budgets.”

Many believe the military intervention in Iran has the potential to drag on, including Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a national security advisor in the Obama White House.

“This administration doesn’t seem to think about this at all,” Kim said when asked about a potential power vacuum keeping the U.S. in the region longer. “The intelligence community has done a whole range of assessments that very much keep me up at night, and the fact that this White House, I assume, read the same things I read and still went through with this, I just find that to be absolutely reckless.”

Complicating matters more for the GOP is that the war in Iran is unpopular. A CNN poll released March 2 found that nearly 60% of those surveyed disapproved of the U.S. taking military action in Iran. That comes as Trump’s economic approval remains underwater: A Fox News poll released March 4 found that 61% of voters disapproved of Trump’s job on the economy.

“We don’t see it as an opportunity, but I do think it’s our responsibility to tell the American people exactly the decision that Donald Trump is making,” said House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif. “He’s sending billions of our tax dollars to the Middle East for another war while he’s kicking people off of healthcare and … eliminating nutrition programs.”

Rep. Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican seeking reelection in a district Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has labeled a “toss up,” said he is not concerned the war could drown out the GOP’s affordability message. He pointed to the sprawling tax and spending bill that was signed into law last year, increased domestic energy production, and housing legislation that advanced out of the House last month as examples of things the party will use to show action on rising costs.

War in the Middle East does not necessarily preclude Republicans from continuing to try to bring prices down, he argued.

“A more fulsome conversation would be, how do we make sure that we still deliver on affordability?” Nunn said in an interview. “I think this is the absolute right spot for us to be in.”

But Trump, the “America First” president who campaigned on ending the U.S.’s foreign entanglements, risks alienating his base with his Iran offensive. Democrats see the war as evidence of what they have been telling voters about Trump all along: he does not care affordability.

“We have a president who has campaigned on ending forever wars, and he has jumped into war without justification or explanation to the American people,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “So this has been broken promise after broken promise. This has been at the expense of the needs of everyday Americans. And I do think voters will hold them accountable in November.”

President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Friday that there would be no deal to end the U.S. war against Iran without an “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” by Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points, or nearly 2%, after Trump’s demand, which he wrote on Truth Social. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6% each, and oil futures prices rose.

Trump said that after a surrender and “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

“IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)” Trump wrote.

Trump’s demand came as Iran has yet to pick a leader to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed last weekend in an airstrike at the beginning of the war by the U.S. and Israel.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, when asked by reporters later about potential future leaders of Iran, said, “I know there are a number of people that our intelligence agencies, that the United States government are looking at, but I won’t get any further.”

Trump in June made an identical demand of “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” by Iran in another social media post as he considered launching a military strike against that nation.

The futures price of the global benchmark Brent crude oil rose, breaking $90 per barrel, after Trump posted his latest demand for Iran to surrender without conditions.

Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned Friday that rising oil prices due to the war against Iran “could bring down the economies of the world.”

Al-Kaabi told The Financial Times that crude oil prices could hit as high as $150 per barrel within weeks if tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The last time oil topped $100 a barrel was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Oil supertanker costs in the Middle East climbed to their highest level on record as conflict between the U.S. and Iran disrupts shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Major marine war risk providers have started to scrap cover for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf as the fallout from a sudden security shock hobbles key shipping routes in the region.

The benchmark freight rate for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China — hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day on Monday, data from LSEG showed. That marked an increase of more than 94% from Friday’s close.

Alongside a significant jump in oil and gas prices, the stratospheric rise in the cost of hauling crude oil follows the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend. The expanding conflict has resulted in the effective halt of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important oil choke points, located in the gulf between Oman and Iran.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be attacked, state media reported. The claim has since been disputed by the U.S. military’s Central Command, CENTCOM, Fox News reported.

“Charterers in the VLCC segment stepped back from the market and avoided securing vessels as multiple incidents have led to increased threat levels around the strait of Hormuz, despite the waterway not being officially closed,” Sheel Bhattacharjee, head of freight pricing in Europe at Argus Media, told CNBC by email.

Oil producers in the Middle East have not yet announced a halt to any production or loading yet, and ports in the UAE, Oman and Kuwait remain operational, Bhattacharjee said, citing market sources.

“But most shipowners were avoiding transits through the strait of Hormuz after insurers cancelled the war risk coverage for vessels in certain areas of the region,” Bhattacharjee said.

It is estimated that roughly one-third of seaborne crude oil trade moves through the strategically important waterway, alongside 19% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows and 14% of global refined products trade, according to Argus Media.

Leading maritime insurers have canceled war risk cover for vessels operating in the Middle East over recent days, amid reports of attacks on multiple ships traversing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Alongside the New York-based American Club, marine insurers including Norway’s Gard and Skuld, Britain’s NorthStandard and the London P&I Club said they were scrapping war risk cover for ships in the region.

Adrian Beciri, CEO of DUCAT Maritime, a Cyprus-based logistics firm specializing in dry bulk, said the knock-on effects of the sprawling Middle East conflict were being felt across the globe.

“We were trying to hire a dry bulk vessel to carry our typical rice food supplies to West Africa, which is around the Cape of Good Hope. You would think that is a million miles away from the conflict zone,” Beciri told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“We actually lost the ship. Someone had paid 50% more than they typically would do to carry coal from Indonesia to the west coast of India. Why did that vessel attract such a high rate? The answer is because the vessel owner was uncertain of getting cargo from the Persian Gulf area,” he continued.

“So, the consequences are far and wide, and this is potentially a double whammy. If we’re looking at the Hormuz closing and the Suez effectively being tampered with by the Houthis, this could be quite significant — much like what we saw during the Covid era and the attacks that were happening there.”

Even if oil tankers are only temporarily blocked from the Strait of Hormuz, it can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.

The Strait of Hormuz is also key for global container trade. Ports in this region, such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan, are specialized transshipment hubs that serve as intermediary points in global networks.

Shipping giants, including MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have also issued fresh guidance, seeking to prioritize safety amid a deteriorating security situation.

The U.S. and Iran are poised to hold further nuclear talks in the Swiss city of Geneva on Thursday, amid persistent fears about the prospect of military action in the oil-rich Middle East.

The upcoming round of negotiations over the future of Tehran’s nuclear program come as the U.S. continues to build up military forces in the region and as President Donald Trump warns of “bad things” if Iran doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal.

The U.S. president on Tuesday spoke briefly about Iran during his nearly two-hour State of the Union address but primarily focused on domestic policy and other political issues.

“We are in negotiations with them. They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon,'” Trump said.

“My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon.”

For some, the comments boosted expectations of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.

Trump “basically wants the optics of a win, which is why he talks about why he’s ended eight wars. I think it’s pretty clear he hasn’t. He has helped navigate, you know, skirmishes … but he hasn’t ended these conflicts,” said George Pollack, U.S. policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors.

“For him, I think it is more about how he’s exerting U.S. strength, U.S. force and trying to make the world more peaceful but that’s more optics than it is a substantive policy,” Pollack told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Wednesday.

“And that’s why, for us, we do think this Thursday meeting will likely be a success and bring about some more diplomatic opportunities,” he added.

For others, however, the absence of a deal means the likelihood of military action appears to be both high and growing.

“President Trump’s 10-to-15-day deadline for Iran works out to a date sometime in very early March,” strategists at Dutch bank ING said in a note published Wednesday.

“This uncertainty means the market will continue to price in a large risk premium and remain sensitive to any fresh developments,” they added.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media Tuesday that the country would resume talks with the U.S. in Geneva this week “with a determination to achieve a fair and equitable deal — in the shortest possible time.”

Araghchi added: “Our fundamental convictions are crystal clear: Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon; neither will we Iranians ever forgo our right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people.”

Oil prices traded near seven-month highs on Wednesday morning as energy market participants continued to closely monitor potential supply disruptions.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with April delivery rose 0.6% to $71.13 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery, traded 0.6% higher at $66.02.

Iran, a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market, producing more than 3 million barrels of crude a day.

The Islamic Republic has recently conducted military drills in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, as well as joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman, also known as the Sea of Oman.

The Trump administration has warned it would be “very wise” for Iran to make a deal, amid reports the White House is considering fresh military action against Tehran as soon as this weekend.

It comes shortly after Vice President JD Vance accused Iran of failing to address core U.S. demands during nuclear talks in Switzerland this week. Iran’s foreign minister previously reported progress in the talks, saying the two countries had reached an understanding over the “guiding principles” for the negotiations.

Speaking at a news briefing Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said there were “many reasons and arguments that once could make for a strike against Iran,” noting that the two countries remain “very far apart” on some issues.

The U.S. president had a “very successful” operation last June, Leavitt said, when U.S. stealth bombers struck three Iranian nuclear facilities as part of “Operation Midnight Hammer.”

“The president has always been very clear though with respect to Iran or any country around the world, diplomacy is always his first option. And Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump and this administration,” Leavitt said.

The White House has said it still hopes to reach a diplomatic resolution over Tehran’s nuclear program, although U.S. media has reported that the military could be prepared to strike Iran as early as the weekend.

The U.S., for its part, has built up a significant presence of air and naval assets, while Iran has conducted military drills in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and announced joint naval drills with Russia in the Sea of Oman.

Laura James, Middle East senior analyst at Oxford Analytica, described the current situation as “extremely dangerous,” with the U.S. and Iran “certainly closer” to an outright conflict than last week.

“The thing that is now a particular concern over the past 24 hours is the very rapid pace at which the United States is reinforcing its air power in the region. That, of course, can still be signalling and pressure for a particular diplomatic outcome,” James told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Thursday.

“But as more and more planes comes in and more and more equipment comes in, that signalling gets more and more expensive. And therefore, the payoff you want for it in diplomatic terms has to be larger — and there is simply no sign Tehran can offer the absolute minimum that Washington is likely to demand,” she added.

Oil prices

Energy market participants have been closely watching the outcome of the U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva, particularly as it relates to the Strait of Hormuz, a major international waterway that Iran partially closed on Tuesday citing “security precautions.”

Located in the gulf between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil choke points.

About 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, accounting for roughly 31% of global seaborne crude flows, data provided by market intelligence firm Kpler showed.

Oil prices were higher on Thursday, extending gains after settling up more than 4% in the previous session.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with April delivery rose 1.5% to $71.41 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery stood 1.7% higher at $66.27.

— CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.