Trump warns to ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue


An Iranian security personnel monitors an area in phase 19 of the South Pars gas field in Assalooyeh on Iran’s Persian Gulf coast 1,400 km (870 miles) south of Tehran on August 23, 2016.

Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned that if Iran continued targeting Qatar’s energy facilities, America would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field.”

Tehran has attacked a key energy facility in Qatar after Israel bombed the South Pars Gas in Iran, signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict and sending energy prices soaring.

Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian missiles caused “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the largest liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export facility in the world.

Trump also denied any prior knowledge of Israel attacking South Pars, pushing back against reports that the strike was coordinated with and approved by his administration.

In a social media post Wednesday night stateside, Trump said that “the United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen.”

Trump also urged Israel to end attacks on the South Pars gas field, unless Iran “unwisely” decides to attack Qatar. In that case, the U.S. will “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

Trump warns to ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue

The attack on South Pars — the world’s largest natural gas reserve, shared between Iran and Qatar — marked the first time Israel has targeted Iranian natural gas production infrastructure since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Iran has fired ballistic missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, with ​QatarEnergy saying the attack had caused “extensive damage” warranting deployment of emergency response teams to contain fires at the site. No casualties were reported.

Separately, Reuters reported Thursday that the U.S. government was considering deploying thousands of U.S. forces to the Middle East, raising the prospect of further escalation.

As tensions spiral, world leaders are scrambling to contain the Middle East conflict amid fears of deepening the turmoil in global energy markets.

Europe calls for de-escalation

Gulf states sound alarm

The United Arab Emirates called the targeting of energy facilities linked to the South Pars field in Iran a “serious escalation,” posing “a direct threat to global energy security” with severe environmental repercussions.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs also called Iran’s targeting of its Habshan gas facility and Bab field a “terrorist attack,” risking a “dangerous escalation.”

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari described the Israeli strike on South Pars as “a dangerous and irresponsible step” amid escalating regional tensions.

The Gulf nation has declared Iranian military and security attachés and their staff at the Iranian embassy in Doha “persona non grata,” ordering them to leave the country within 24 hours.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud also appeared to toughen the tone, reportedly saying that “what little trust there was before with Iran has completely been shattered.” Both political and non-political responses to Iran remain on the table, he added.

Iran vows retaliation

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday threatened to escalate hostilities by targeting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

In a post on X, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, saying that they “could have uncontrollable consequences, the scope of which could engulf the entire world.”

The attacks on Middle East energy production facilities have further deepened supply disruption triggered by the conflict. Brent crude May futures rose 4% to $111.77 a barrel as of 10:25 p.m. ET , while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April climbed over 1.3% to $97.56 per barrel.

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil supply and a significant share of LNG exports — has plunged since the war began, with the waterway effectively closed to most commercial shipping.

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Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz


Fire and plumes of smoke rise from an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Saturday, March 14, 2026.

Altaf Qadri | AP

A fresh wave of attacks on the United Arab Emirates’ energy infrastructure has ramped up concerns over prolonged supply disruptions amid the Iran war.

It comes after the world’s largest ultra-sour gas development was struck by a drone, a fire broke out in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, and another tanker was hit near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE also reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown following a fire caused by an Iranian drone attack hitting a fuel tank.

Operations at the UAE’s massive Shah gas field remained suspended on Tuesday following a drone attack, which caused a fire at the facility, according to Abu Dhabi authorities. No injuries were reported from the incident.

The Shah gas field is located 180 kilometers southwest of Abu Dhabi and is operated by a joint venture between ADNOC and Occidental Petroleum Corp. It has the capacity to produce 1.28 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day and 4.2 million tons of sulfur per year.

Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz

Separately, a drone attack sparked a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a critically important hub for the UAE’s crude exports and bunkering operations. The Fujairah government’s media office said on Tuesday that no casualties were reported.

Fujairah, one of the world’s top hubs for storing crude and fuels, is located on the eastern seaboard of the UAE and serves as a key shipping hub for the wider region.

It has faced repeated attacks in recent weeks, underlining the vulnerability of the UAE’s only export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy choke points, has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the maritime corridor.

Spanning around 248 miles from onshore oil facilities at Habshan to Fujairah, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), or the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline, is estimated to handle 1.5 million barrels per day, with a reported total capacity of close to 1.8 million barrels per day.

Oil prices

A tanker was also struck while at anchor by an unknown projectile about 23 nautical miles east of the UAE’s Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, according to an update published Monday from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center.

The incident caused minor structural damage, with no injuries to the crew and no environmental impact was reported, the UKMTO said.

The latest report comes after six vessels sustained damage in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman last week as Iran warned oil prices could climb to $200 a barrel.

A smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16, 2026. Flights were gradually resuming at Dubai airport on March 16, previously the world’s busiest for international flights, the airport operator said, after a “drone-related incident” sparked a fuel tank fire nearby, as Iran kept up its Gulf attacks.

– | Afp | Getty Images

Oil prices were higher on Tuesday as energy market participants closely monitored ongoing supply disruptions.

International Brent crude futures with May delivery advanced 2.2% at $102.36 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery rose 2.2% at $95.55.

Prices have surged about 40% during the U.S.-Iran war, reaching their highest levels since 2022, as shipping through the Strait has been severely disrupted. Brent closed above $100 for the first time in four years last week.

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CNBC Daily Open: Risk-off trade back on for oil


Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle, and his latest round with reporters in the Oval Office has yielded more headlines and market moves this morning. It’s only Tuesday and already it’s been a volatile week for oil, which remains the epicenter of trading action.

Market participants — as well as us journalists — will need to stay on their toes to keep up with developments.

What you need to know today

Oil prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday as uncertainty lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump suggested Monday that the coalition was not fully in place as he urged other countries to get involved.

He voiced his frustrations by saying “some are very enthusiastic, and some are less than enthusiastic … and I assume some will not do it.”

Washington, meanwhile, is looking to postpone a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid the conflict with Iran. During a press conference in the Oval Office, he said, “There’s no tricks to it either. It’s very simple. We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

Back in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown, as Iran continued missile and drone attacks. The UAE’s Defense Ministry said that air defenses have intercepted more than 300 ballistic missiles and 1,600 drones so far.

The volatility has led to a hike in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank raised its benchmark policy rate for a second consecutive time, citing concerns over the inflation risk posed by the war in Iran.

In stock markets, Asia-Pacific equities rose Tuesday as auto and tech stocks gained after Nvidia announced robust revenue forecast for its key chips, and partnerships with carmakers from the region. European and U.S. futures are lacking direction in early trade.

— Leonie Kidd

And finally…

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Why traders are getting nervous about Iran’s $200 oil warning as the conflict drags on



Price caps, taking the stairs, and short-sleeved shirts: How countries are coping with the Iran war energy shock


A fuel nozzle is inserted into a combustion engine at a petrol pump at a filling station during a refueling process.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Countries around the world have scrambled to cope with the fallout of the energy shock from the Iran war, imposing measures from fuel export bans, loosening refining standards, and even getting workers to climb stairs instead of taking elevators.

This comes as the Iran war stretches into its third week, and despite U.S. President Donald Trump proclaiming that the U.S. has “won,” the effects of the war, especially on the energy market, continue to be felt.

From the serious…

Naturally, some nationwide measures include trying to have as much fuel in country, so as to avoid having to rely on imported fuel.

On Thursday, China ordered refiners to stop refined fuel exports so as to mitigate potential domestic fuel shortages, according to Reuters.

Sources told the agency that the ban was issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, and includes shipments of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.

CNBC attempted to reach the NDRC for comment, but did not receive an immediate reply.

Other major countries are considering or have imposed price caps for fuel products.

On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that Tokyo was considering steps ‌to cushion the economic blow from rising fuel costs, including curbing gasoline prices.

Takaichi was quoted by Japanese media on Thursday as saying she plans to cap pump prices at an average of 170 yen ($1.07) per liter nationwide, adding that gasoline prices could potentially hit 200 yen per liter.

Tokyo also conducted a unilateral release of crude from its own stockpiles, without waiting for coordination with other nations.

Japan has been particularly badly hit by the war in Iran, as the world’s third-largest economy needs to import almost all of its energy needs.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Friday the government implemented a petroleum price ceiling.

“We have decided to set a clear price cap on supply prices to curb domestic fuel prices, which are fluctuating wildly due to the unstable international situation,” Lee said.

India also had to make some tough choices. The country told oil refineries to prioritize supplying liquified petroleum gas to the 330 million households that use it as a primary cooking fuel, over 3 million businesses that use commercial LPG cylinders.

… to the quirky

While some countries have tried to secure alternative energy supplies to keep their lights on, others have focused on reducing demand on their grids.

Work-from-home orders came back in some countries after years of companies trying to coax workers back to offices after the pandemic, with Vietnam and Thailand reportedly getting employees to work remotely.

Thailand went a step further, ordering civil servants to take the stairs instead of elevators, reducing their reliance on air conditioning and telling government employees to wear short-sleeved shirts rather than suits.

The Philippines and Pakistan both instituted four-day work weeks for government workers, and Bangladesh has even shifted its calendar, bringing forward its Eid-al-fitr holiday, allowing universities to close early in a bid to save fuel.

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Iran vows to kill Israel’s Netanyahu as impact of war on Gulf region widens


AT SEA – MARCH 02: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by the U.S. Navy, EA-18G Growler, attached to Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 133, launches from the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in support of Operation Epic Fury on March 2, 2026 in the Mediterranean Sea. (Photo by U.S. Navy via Getty Images)

U.s. Navy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Tehran on Sunday vowed to kill Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the U.S.-Israel war on Iran continued to threaten oil supplies in the Gulf.

“IRGC vows to pursue and kill ‘child-killer’ Netanyahu if he is still alive,” Iran’s IRNA news agency said in a post on X, referring to the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Israel in return targeted key members of Iran’s leadership over the weekend.

The Israel Defense Forces said they had “eliminated” two senior Iranian intelligence officials of the “Khatam al-Anbiya” Emergency Command.

Late on Saturday, the IDF said in a post on X that it had struck the primary research center of the Iranian Space Agency and an aerial defense system production factory.

Iran continued to retaliate against targets around the region. Israeli emergency services reported a “recent missile barrage” fired at central Israel, but said there were no known injuries.

Israeli security forces check the damage to cars after a rocket strike in Holon, in the Tel Aviv District on March 15, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images) /

Jack Guez | Afp | Getty Images

Meanwhile, oil-loading operations in the United Arab Emirates’ port of Fujairah resumed on Sunday according to media reports, after being interrupted a day earlier due to a fire caused by falling debris from an intercepted drone.

A spokesperson for Abu Dhabi’s state oil giant, ADNOC, which operates in Fujairah, directed CNBC to the Fujairah Media Office, which did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.

The ongoing war has effectively choked off energy supplies moving through the narrow Strait of Hormuz which separates Iran and the UAE.

On Friday, Brent crude oil futures closed above $100 per barrel for the second straight day, and the global oil benchmark has surged more than 40% since the war in Iran began.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he directed the U.S. Central Command to carry out a bombing raid, hitting military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island for the first time. Trump threatened further strikes on Iran’s oil export hub, even as he repeatedly urged allies to deploy warships to help the U.S. secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Kharg Island has been thrust into the global spotlight because it is regarded as one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for around 90% of the country’s crude exports and has a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took to social media to say his country is “ready to form a committee with the countries of the region to investigate the targets that were attacked. Our attacks only target American bases and interests in the region.”

In a Telegram post Sunday, Araghchi said: “We have not targeted any civilian or residential areas in the countries of the region so far,” and added, “Occupying Kharg Island would be a bigger mistake than attacking it.”

The impact of the war is now also affecting major events in the Gulf region. Formula 1 said it has canceled the upcoming Grand Prix races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia scheduled for April.

“While alternatives were considered, no substitutions will be made in April,” Formula 1 said in a post on X.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

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Iran’s ‘oil lifeline’ has been left untouched in the conflict. What happens if it’s seized?


A general view of the Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal, 25 km from the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf and 483 km northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, in Iran on March 12, 2017.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

The prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline,” is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.

The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran.

The Trump administration has discussed seizing the island, according to an Axios report on March 7, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of the discussions.

White House officials have previously said they expect oil prices to fall dramatically once Operation Epic Fury comes to an end, while White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said the president “wisely” keeps all options on the table.

Kharg Island has been thrust into the global spotlight because it is regarded as one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets. The terminal accounts for around 90% of the country’s crude exports and has a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day.

Analysts say that any attempt to attack or seize it would require a ground troop operation, which the U.S. appears reluctant to undertake. An attack would also likely prompt a sustained increase to already soaring oil prices.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously refused to rule out deploying American ground forces in Iran but said the U.S. won’t get bogged down in the country.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor and military geography and environmental security specialist at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said the location of Kharg Island is important because it sits in deep water that enables the approach of oil supertankers.

“I will put on my war hat … if the objective is to win the war (quickly), you destroy or capture Kharg immediately,” Galgano told CNBC by email, adding that any such attempt would create maximum leverage over Tehran.

Nonetheless, taking the small island would be no mean feat, Galgano said. “It would involve moving a considerable number of ground combat troops into the region … I estimate about 5,000 to take and hold the island.”

He added: “All of this of course affects global oil markets, but they are already being affected.”

Iran’s ‘oil lifeline’ has been left untouched in the conflict. What happens if it’s seized?

Oil prices have been extremely volatile since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with several incidents reported in recent days.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded off by 1% at $99.45 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen 2% lower at $93.81.

If Kharg Island were disabled, analysts at JPMorgan said the loss of Iran’s storage buffer and the scarcity of viable export alternatives would “rapidly trigger upstream shut-ins across major southwest fields.”

“With production near 3.3 mbd and exports around 1.5 mbd, as much as half of national output could be at risk if the hub remains offline, and the previously assumed 20‑day buffer would vanish from day one,” they said in a note published Sunday.

Security control

Richard Goldberg, senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit research institute considered hawkish on Iran, said he understood the hesitation to do anything that could knock out Iranian oil production at a time when markets are jittery and the potential for regime change is still in play.

“That may change quickly as we take back security control of the Strait of Hormuz and we get a clearer picture if the regime is able to hang on to power a while longer,” Goldberg told CNBC by email.

“At that point we absolutely need to consider disabling the export terminal or otherwise cutting off the regime’s financial lifeline indefinitely,” he added.

Satellite view of Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Iran.

Gallo Images | Gallo Images | Getty Images

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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Pete Hegseth on Strait of Hormuz: ‘Don’t need to worry about it’


U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth holds a briefing amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 2, 2026.

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday brushed aside concerns that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz because of the Iran war, which has spiked oil prices, would continue being a problem for the U.S. and the world for much longer.

Iran has been “exercising sheer desperation in the Straits of Hormuz,” Hegseth said at a Pentagon press briefing.

“We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it,” he said.

The trading price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on Friday morning was around $93 per barrel. A day before the war began on Feb. 28, a barrel of WTI was selling for about $67.

Hegseth criticized media reports that claimed that before attacking Iran, the United States military lacked a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoint.

“Of course, for decades, Iran has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is always what they do, hold the strait hostage,” he said.

“We planned for it. We recognize it,” Hegseth told a reporter who asked him why the Pentagon had not planned for the strait being choked off to traffic.

“Ultimately, we want to do it sequentially in the way that makes the most sense for what we want to achieve.”

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Neither Hegseth nor Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine said how the U.S. would open up the strait to the traffic of oil tankers and other ships.

On Thursday morning, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that the U.S. Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, hours later, told Sky News that the U.S. Navy, and possibly an international coalition, would begin escorting ships through the strait as soon as “militarily possible.”

Asked how soon the Strait of Hormuz would be open to traffic, Hegseth said Friday, “The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping.”

“We have a plan for every option here,” he said. “We’re working with our interagency partners. That’s not a strait we’re going to allow to remain contested or a lack of flow of international goods.”

Caine, when asked about removing mines from the Strait of Hormuz laid by Iran, said, “We retain a range of options to solve a whole variety of problems.”

Hegseth predicted, again, that “soon and very soon, all of Iran’s defense companies will be destroyed.” He said that as of two days ago, every company that builds components of Iran’s ballistic missiles “has been functionally defeated.”

The Defense secretary speculated that Iran’s “new so-called, not-so-supreme leader,” Mojtaba Khamenei, “is wounded and likely disfigured.”

“He put out a statement yesterday, a weak one, actually, but there was no voice and there was no video,” Hegseth said.

Hegseth and Caine’s vagueness in offering either details of a possible solution to the strait’s closure, or a timeline for such a solution came as RBC Capital Markets, in a note on Friday, said, “There is significant skepticism that a robust US Navy tanker escort service will be operational soon due to capacity constraints as well as the fact that Iran’s enhanced military capabilities will pose a bigger challenge than the US faced during the Tanker Wars of the 1980s.”

The note also said that a $20 billion insurance promoted by the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., to encourage oil tankers and other commercial vessels to begin ffic to begin transiting the straight “similarly … is not generating much enthusiasm as it only covers the roughly 22 miles of sea lanes in the Strait, not the surrounding waterways, and offers neither casualty nor environmental coverage.”

“Above all, we are struck by the fact that a number of Washington-based security analysts seem to be working with longer-duration timelines than market participants residing outside the Beltway,” RBS’s Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research, wrote.

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Three more ships struck in the Persian Gulf as Iran warns of oil prices hitting $200


Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

AFP | Getty Images

Three more foreign ships were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight, authorities said, as attacks intensify on vessels sailing through or near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The latest incidents come after three separate vessels sustained damage in Gulf waters on Wednesday and as Iran warns oil prices could climb to $200 a barrel.

A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile about 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, a major port city near Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center said on Thursday. The incident caused a small fire onboard, and all crew were reported to be safe.

Earlier, two foreign oil tankers were left ablaze in Iraqi waters after having been struck near the port Umm Qasr, near the city of Basra.

At least one person was killed in the attack, according to multiple media reports, citing Iraqi port officials, and 38 crew members were rescued from the ships. Iraq’s General Company for Ports was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent days.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

Attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf have ratcheted up fears of a prolonged economic shock.

“Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, said Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Crude prices were sharply higher on Thursday morning, as traders closely monitored supply risks and appeared to shrug off the International Energy Agency’s push to release a record 400 million barrels of oil.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 5.7% higher at $97.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery rose 5.3% at $91.88.

The IEA on Wednesday did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market. It said that the reserves would be released over a time frame that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.

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The Iran war is pushing up European energy prices. Here’s why a Ukraine-style inflation shock could still be avoided


The energy price shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago is fresh in the minds of European policymakers as the conflict in Iran once again drives oil and gas prices higher. Experts, however, think this time could be different.

Fears of a full-blown energy crisis on that scale — which saw oil top more than $120 a barrel by June 2022, gas prices soar, household energy bills rise, and eurozone inflation hit a record 9% — may yet be overblown, according to investment strategists.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has retreated from the near-$120 per barrel seen earlier in the week, as the International Energy Agency agreed on Wednesday to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves. European natural gas prices, as measured by the Dutch TTF futures benchmark, also pulled back from a three-year high of 63.77 euros per megawatt-hour and were last seen under 50 euros per MWh on Wednesday.

‘Eerily familiar’

James Smith, developed markets economist focusing on the U.K. at ING, said that while the initial energy price reaction appears “eerily familiar” to the start of the Ukraine invasion, the global economic picture looks very different from the 2022 shock.

“The 2022 energy crisis landed on a global economy that was ripe for inflation to take off. Supply chains were fractured, job markets tight, and fiscal policy was fueling the fire. All of that, to varying degrees, is less true today,” Smith said in a note.

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The Iran war is pushing up European energy prices. Here’s why a Ukraine-style inflation shock could still be avoided

Brent crude.

Europe does not produce enough gas to meet its energy needs, says Uniper CEO Michael Lewis

But he conceded that Europe does not produce the volume of gas it needs to meet its energy needs.

“What we need to do is have more long-term contracts. Following the elimination of Russian gas from our portfolio, we have to buy more gas on the spot market…That’s why we’re rebuilding the portfolio to get more long-term gas contracts into the portfolio which insulates us from some of these price changes.”

Inflation concerns

Smith said that a scenario in which energy supply normalizes after four weeks, bringing energy prices down in the second quarter, could drive eurozone inflation from its current level of 1.9% to to 2.5% by the second quarter. Meanwhile, inflation could hit 3% in the U.K. and the U.S.

That would be “enough to delay, but not derail,” further Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate cuts, but “not enough to move the ECB out of its ‘good place’,” Smith added.

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The Iran war is pushing up European energy prices. Here’s why a Ukraine-style inflation shock could still be avoided

U.K. 10-Year Gilts.

Yields on government bonds in the U.K. and Germany edged higher as investors revised bets on interest rate policies from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Madis Muller, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council, admitted that the probability of a rate hike has increased, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday.

Sharp moves in bond yields underline the market uncertainty, chiming with the huge swings in oil and gas since the conflict began, as analysts say that persistent higher-for-longer energy prices will drive central bank policy responses.

Geoff Yu, senior EMEA market strategist at BNY, said that, in the short-term, ECB rate cuts will probably need to be pushed out. But he added there is “far too much uncertainty” to provide guidance beyond the next three months.

“Markets pricing in two hikes seems too excessive, but it is important to manage expectations and pivot tactically to anchor inflation expectations,” Yu told CNBC via email. “Europe needs to ensure 2022-2023 is not repeated.”

He said that the continent is far less exposed to a sudden tightening in financial conditions this time round, as equities positioning is not as concentrated.

Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer sees a 'complicated cocktail' for Europe

“Firstly, prices remain a fraction of their 2022 highs. Secondly, European energy resilience is now much stronger thanks to supply diversification, so there is no need for an overreaction. Thirdly, the state of the cycle is different, as there is no post-Covid demand boost to speak of,” Yu said.

‘A complicated cocktail’

Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the broader market environment leaves Europe facing a “complicated cocktail” as investor sentiment around growth and inflation recalibrates almost “hour by hour.”

“For Europe in aggregate, the combination of rising oil prices and a weakening euro — at least the set-up that we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks or so — is actually a net positive for earnings,” Oppenheimer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday. “Of course, to the extent that that combination leads to a deterioration in the growth and inflation mix, that would be a net negative.”

“We’ve seen a massive rise in oil prices, a great deal of uncertainty. If that were to continue I think inevitably it would have the effect of pushing down growth expectation to the point where equities correct.”

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