A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparks market relief — but no clear path to lasting peace


WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 06: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks alongside Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe (L) and U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (R) during a news conference in James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on April 06, 2026 in Washington, DC.

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

A temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparked a broad relief rally across assets on Wednesday, but experts warned that any deal concerning lasting peace will be complicated by a major trust deficit.

The ceasefire came following hastened diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan and just hours before Trump’s threatened deadline for wiping out the entire Iranian civilization, briefly pulling the region back from the brink of a massive military bombardment.

Oil prices cooled to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement, but remain far above the pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel.

While U.S. President Donald Trump said the two-week ceasefire was contingent on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials stated that safe passage through the strait would be “possible,” subject to coordination with its armed forces and “technical limitations” — caveats that may give Iran some room to define compliance on its own terms.

“This is a problem that could derail the ceasefire later this year,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, warning that the coordination requirement remains a risky ambiguity in both sides’ statements so far.

Trump may temporarily accept Iran as a gatekeeper — with U.S. midterm elections approaching and gasoline prices sharply higher than before the war — but after the election, the U.S. national security establishment will start to demand a more permanent solution,” said Gertken. “Fighting will ignite later this year, if not later this month.”

A protester waves an Iranian flag and shouts slogans during a demonstration against US military action in Iran near the White House in Washington, DC, on April 7, 2026.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

Tehran also said that its armed forces will cease defensive operations if attacks against Iran are halted. After the ceasefire came into effect at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, missiles were still launched from Iran towards Israel and several Gulf states.

The reprieve on Tuesday would allow some time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis, with their delegations expected to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

Iran is reportedly finalizing a joint maritime protocol with Oman to institutionalize coordinated management of tanker traffic through the strait, which could embed Iranian authority over the crucial energy artery into a standing bilateral agreement.

Fragile truce

The ceasefire, holding together a group of parties with sharply diverging interests, also leaves questions open over whether resumed peace talks will yield meaningful results without renewing tensions.

Pratibha Thaker, regional director, Africa and the Middle East at the Economist Intelligence Unit, described the ceasefire agreement as “a huge relief” but warned that a significant lack of trust on both sides will complicate upcoming negotiations.

“What are we are seeing right now, I would really like to stress is a pause in the conflict, rather than any kind of lasting resolution,” Thaker told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Wednesday.

“But, and this is a big but, it is a very fragile arrangement. The ceasefire hinges on Iran suspending its military activity [and] fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping,” Thaker said.

“Crucially, there is a deep trust deficit on both sides. From Washington’s perspective, longstanding concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. From Tehran’s side, deep skepticisim about U.S. intentions, especially given past withdrawals from agreements and continued military presence and pressure as well.”

A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparks market relief — but no clear path to lasting peace

Israel agreed to suspend strikes but urged Washington to press for deeper Iranian concessions, including the surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles. In its 10-point terms, Iran requested Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program and the lifting of all sanctions.

The ceasefire will likely hold in the near term, given the economic costs accruing to the global economy from six weeks of conflict, said Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments. “Parties with vested interest in stopping the conflict and reopening the strait will double down on efforts to find a compromise,” he said.

If the truce holds and the strait reopens, the global economic damage should prove manageable, Langham added. Central banks could broadly resume their pre-conflict paths — and attention may shift from inflation to growth, if commodity prices normalize quickly, he added.

The market calculation

The ceasefire sparked a relief rally in markets amid repricing for a de-escalation in the conflict, but investors will watch for something more durable than a two-week pause, Geoff Yu, senior market strategist at BNY, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

“What the market is going to start pricing ahead is a first step towards further de-escalation and perhaps something more permanent,” he said, flagging that the disruption has extended beyond crude oil to commodities such as helium, critical to semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan.

Stocks surged across regions, with Asian benchmarks and U.S. futures climbing, amid rising optimism for a potential turning point in a conflict that has rattled markets for weeks.

An Indian Oil Corp. gas station in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India, on Wednesday, April 8, 2026.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Josh Rubin, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investments, cautioned against reading the early market reaction as a definitive verdict. “There’s still low visibility [and] limited predictability” on whether the truce will hold, Rubin said, warning that tail risks remain if the strait remains closed for another two to four months.

Energy and commodity markets are likely to remain on a structurally higher floor regardless of the ceasefire outcome, said BCA Research’s Gertken, as governments hoard and restock in anticipation of renewed conflict, keeping oil and gas prices elevated well above pre-war levels even in a scenario where shipping resumes.

‘A wake-up call for everybody’

Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University of Qatar, said the two-week ceasefire shows that there is “tremendous willpower” from both Washington and Tehran to bring this war to an end.

“Probably the one party that did not want the war to end is Israel and we see that Israel has refused to say that this ceasefire applies to Lebanon. So yes, I think the ceasefire will hold because neither the Trump administration nor the Iranians really want this war to continue,” Kamrava told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

'Tremendous' willpower to end Iran war: professor

When asked how the last 24 to 48 hours may have influenced the way the U.S. is viewed by its allies and adversaries across the globe, Kamrava said the world had been “put on notice” by some of Trump’s comments.

“One of the things we have seen here in the region is that close alliance with the United States does not necessarily bring you security. If anything, it creates adversaries and it creates problems,” Kamrava said.

“So, what we have seen in the past 48 to 24 hours, particularly given President Trump’s extremely incendiary and violent language on social media is kind of a wake up call for everybody, both allies and adversaries, that this is a very unreliable and really unpredictable actor in the White House,” he added.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Analysis: A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.


Analysis: A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.

The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within roughly the next one to three weeks. Even then, enough damage may have been done already to leave energy and many other prices higher for longer. 

These risks haven’t been clearly reflected in some widely followed markets, including stocks broadly and the benchmark Brent crude price. Stopgap measures to soften the blow of the oil cutoff have kept crude prices relatively low in the U.S. and European markets. But when those measures lose their effectiveness in early-to-mid April, analysts warn there will be little the U.S. or other governments can do to keep energy prices from rising dramatically. 

Iran has attacked civilian ships and energy infrastructure in its neighborhood, causing traffic in the narrow Strait of Hormuz to fall to a standstill. Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally moves through the approximately 100-mile waterway, which borders Iran. Some oil has been rerouted through pipelines, but they can only carry so much. The U.S. and others are releasing 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves — the biggest release on record — and the U.S. has temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil to give the market breathing room.

Satellite image shows smoke rising from UAE’s Fujairah port, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 15, 2026.

Nasa Worldview | Via Reuters

The White House says it believes the president’s military strategy will soon end the Iranian threat, allowing the price worries to fade.

But all agree there is no substitute for reopening the strait. Oil industry executives have in the past few days sketched out the risk of growing disruption from the war. 

Read more CNBC politics coverage

“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday at S&P Global’s CERAWeek in Houston. Shell CEO Wael Sawan echoed him a few days later at the annual gathering of industry heavyweights. Disruptions that started in South Asia have “moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April,” Sawan said Wednesday.

The talk of the conference was the difference between so-called paper and physical prices, said Ben Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Texas at Austin. 

Paper prices vs. physical prices

Paper prices reflect trading in financial markets and are often the headline oil prices discussed in the press. They have generally remained lower than prices for physical delivery of oil, especially in Asia, which is the main buyer of crude from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures prices rose 36% from Feb. 27, the last day of trading before the started, through March 27, when they traded above $113 a barrel. But the Dubai price, which tracks physical delivery from certain Middle East sellers, is up 76%, more than twice the paper price, at $126. That price has been especially volatile lately. 

One reason paper prices are lower is they have regularly fallen in reaction to suggestions by President Donald Trump that the war could soon end or otherwise de-escalate. Traders call that “jawboning.” 

“In that sense it’s working, it’s preventing a bigger paper-market reaction,” Cahill said of Trump’s rhetoric. “But the reality of the physical market disruption is really hard to ignore.”

That disruption isn’t limited to oil and its effects on U.S. gas prices. Prices for liquified natural gas are also a worry. LNG prices in Japan and South Korea are up 48%. Costs of jet fuel are spiraling, along with more esoteric commodities such as helium. Without relief, these prices could continue to rise, driving up global inflation and eating at growth.

Market deterioration

Markets have deteriorated over the past few days. The S&P 500 rose half a percent on Tuesday amid optimism that Trump would delay a plan to attack Iranian energy infrastructure, but proceeded to fall 3.4% from Wednesday through Friday’s close. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has followed a similar trajectory. It has now risen by roughly a half-point over the course of the war to 4.4%, reflecting worries about inflation and the prospect that the Fed may not cut interest rates as it has hoped to do.

The looming possibility of physical supply shortages in the oil market appears to be blunting the effect of Trump’s jawboning. Financial markets reflect the reality that Trump has often managed to avoid worst-case scenarios, including when he attacked Iran’s nuclear program in June. Oil futures then spiked but quickly fell once it was clear the war wouldn’t spread. 

Trump is now moving thousands of new troops to the region. He could use them to attack Iran’s Kharg Island oil-export facility, cutting off a vital revenue source for the regime and forcing it to accept a negotiated reopening of the strait. He could attempt to retake the strait militarily. The regime could simply collapse, or any number of outcomes that would restore the flow of energy.

Futures markets reflect that those relatively optimistic possibilities are in play. But they may not be able to do so forever. 

Geopolitical strategist Marko Papic with markets advisory firm BCA Research pulled together an estimate of the sources of supply and their blockages. For now through roughly April 19, Papic estimates the world has lost 4.5-5 million barrels a day of oil from the war, amounting to about 5% of global supply. But, he writes in a research note sent out this week, “that number will double by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply.”

The world will hit an oil cliff in mid-April, in Papic’s estimation, because supplies from the strategic petroleum reserve as well as Russian and Iranian oil exempted from sanctions will run out. There is no substitute for pumping oil from the ground and sending it directly to clients. 

But the ability of the oil industry to return to delivering its product is also in question. Middle East producers don’t have enough storage for all the oil they are pumping but can’t ship, so they have had to shut in production, temporarily closing wells. Reversing that will take time. 

Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said at the energy conference it could take three to four months to return to full production once the war ends. 

That end could come soon if Trump gets his way.

“The glimmers of light at the beginning of the tunnel are becoming more bright and more clear,” a White House official said on condition of anonymity. The official disputed the oil industry’s skepticism about the outlook. 

“I think the oil execs aren’t geopolitical masterminds,” the official said. The administration is making progress militarily, the official said, and still has more levers it can pull to get energy to the market. 

“We’re also seeing developments with Russia stepping in to expand its exports to fill that gap, so there’s still breathing room here,” the official said. 

That breathing room is real, but it appears to be quickly diminishing. Every day that Iran is willing and able to threaten shipping in the strait puts the world closer to serious economic damage.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Stagflation alarm bells ring in the euro zone as energy crunch hits the global economy


Workers of German steel manufacturer Salzgitter AG stand in front of a furnace at a plant in Salzgitter, Germany, March 1, 2018.

Fabian Bimmer | Reuters

Private sector output in the euro zone sank to a 10-month low in March, amid mounting evidence of the impact the Iran conflict is having on the global economy.

The closely-watched S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the euro zone fell to 50.5 in March, marking a steep decline from the 51.9 reported in February.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a shallower dip to 51.0. The 50.0 threshold separates expansion from contraction territory.

The reading prompted fresh warnings that the region is facing the specter of looming stagflation — a toxic combination of high inflation and unemployment, and stalling growth.

“The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented Tuesday.

“Firms’ costs are rising at the fastest rate for over three years amid the surge in energy prices and choking of supply chains resulting from the war. Supplier delays have jumped to their highest since mid-2022, largely linked to shipping issues.”

Euro zone companies surveyed by S&P Global scaled back hiring marginally during March, as bosses lowered output expectations for the year when compared with February forecasts, according to S&P Global economists.

“Stagflation” is often seen as a “worse case scenario” for economies and poses a dilemma for central banks because the tools they’d usually use to combat high inflation — higher interest rates — can stifle growth and employment, while lowering rates can boost growth but increase demand and inflation.

The euro zone is not alone in seeing private sector activity slow due to the Iran war, with PMI data from India earlier on Tuesday also showing output growth slowed to its lowest level since October 2022.

‘Critical’ energy crunch

The current turmoil in the Middle East has made previous growth and inflation forecasts largely redundant, and businesses and policymakers have been left trying to gauge the direction of travel for input costs and inflation without knowing how long the conflict will last.

In revised forecasts released last week, the European Central Bank now expects economic growth of 0.9% in 2026, and headline inflation to average 2.6% this year.

That outlook could be optimistic, however, with S&P Global’s Williamson noting that the PMI survey’s price gauge was indicative of inflation accelerating close to 3%, “with cost pressure likely to add still further to selling price inflation in the coming months.”

“The outlook depends on the duration of the war and any potential lasting impact on energy and supply chains, but the flash PMI data underscore how the European Central Bank is no longer in a ‘good place’ with respect to growth and inflation,” Williamson said.

The March PMIs show the conflict in Iran is already having a significant impact on the euro area economy, J.P. Morgan’s Raphael Brun-Aguerre noted Tuesday.

“Overall, the survey points to a large near-term inflation impact from higher energy that could feed into core prices … The energy price shock could hit business profitability and has already damaged demand conditions and output more broadly in the region. Business sentiment is being hit significantly. European Commission data [out Monday] already showed a large hit to consumer confidence in March,” he noted in emailed analysis.

A tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil that was damaged in unidentified attacks targeting two foreign tankers, according to Iraqi port officials, near Basra, Iraq, March 12, 2026.

Mohammed Aty | Reuters

Early Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was time for negotiations with Iran, given the “critical” nature of the global energy crisis.

“The situation is critical for the energy supply allies worldwide. We all feel the knock-on effects on gas and oil prices, our businesses and our societies, but it is of utmost importance that we come to a solution that is negotiated, and this puts an end to the hostilities that we see in the Middle East.”

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Trump tells CNBC ‘we are very intent on making a deal’ with Iran


Trump tells CNBC ‘we are very intent on making a deal’ with Iran

President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday that, following talks with Iranian authorities, he ordered the U.S. military to postpone strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

He told CNBC’s Joe Kernen in a phone call shortly after the post that “we are very intent on making a deal with Iran.”

However, Iranian state media, citing an unnamed “senior security official” in a post on Telegram disputed Trump’s description of conversations, saying direct or indirect talks have not taken place between Washington and Tehran.

“There is been no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this kind of psychological warfare, neither the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions nor will there be peace in the energy markets,” state media reported the official as saying.

Trump countered later Monday morning that the U.S. and Iran “have had very, very strong talks” yielding “major points of agreement,” including that Tehran will “never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump, speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, said his son-in-law Jared Kushner and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff participated in those talks Sunday evening with “a top person” in Iran.

“They want, very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal too,” he said. “We’re going to get together today by, probably, phone, because it’s … very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we’ll, at some point, very, very soon, meet.”

Trump said that if the five-day halt in strikes goes well, the parties could end up “settling this.”

“Otherwise, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out,” he said.

The president also said that he believes Israel will be “very happy” with the progress made with Iran so far.

He added that the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened very soon, if this works.”

Asked who would control the strait, Trump said it might be “jointly controlled” by himself and “whoever the ayatollah is,” suggesting that such a move would come as part of a “very serious form of regime change.”

President Trump: Iran wants to make a deal

In his Truth Social post earlier Monday, Trump said that the U.S. and Iran had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.”

The U.S. president said these talks would continue through the week. It was not immediately clear who participated in the talks or when and where they were held.

U.S. stock futures rallied, the dollar fell against other major currencies, and oil prices tumbled on the news.

Speaking with Kernen, Trump said discussions with Iranian authorities had been very intense and that he remains hopeful something very substantive can be achieved.

The U.S. president also insisted on the same call that what is unfolding in Iran can be described as regime change, Kernen reported.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for additional information about the purported talks, and did not immediately respond to Iran’s claim that no such negotiations are underway.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport on March 23, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Roberto Schmidt | Getty Images

The U.S. president on Saturday issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iran’s power plants.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

The deadline had been due to expire on Monday evening in Washington.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Iranian Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf had said critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated by targeting ships trying to pass through the strait, with several incidents reported in recent weeks.

The Iran war has stoked global inflation fears and created what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


More than 40 Middle East energy assets ‘severely damaged,’ IEA chief says


Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), speaks at the National Press Club in Canberra, Australia, on Monday, March 23, 2026.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged since the Iran war began, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Australia’s capital, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said damage to oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines across the Middle East would take some time to repair.

His comments come as market participants closely monitor threats from the U.S. and Iran over energy facilities as the sprawling regional conflict enters its fourth week.

The Iran war has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, creating what the IEA says is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also been reduced by roughly 20% since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Birol said the fallout from the Iran war is equivalent to the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis “put together.”

He added: “And, if I may, not only oil and gas. Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium. Their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

The narrow waterway is a key maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through it.

Iran’s Parliament spokesperson Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf responded, saying that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Gulf region could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Given that shipping has virtually ground to a halt in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, the IEA’s Birol said the reopening of the waterway was the “single most important” solution to the global energy crisis.

He singled out Asia as being at the forefront of the Iran war energy shock and said the IEA was prepared to follow-up its historic release of 400 million barrels of oil to the market on March 11.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Birol said.

— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Work from home, drive slower and don’t use gas cookers: IEA advice on weathering the global energy crisis


FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub, appearing to run out of space to contain a historic supply glut that has hammered prices, in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016. Picture taken March 24, 2016.

Nick Oxford | Reuters

Supply measures alone won’t be enough to mitigate “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency warned on Friday.

Instead of waiting for disrupted production to recover, lowering demand could ease pressure on consumers and help bring prices down more quickly.

Minimizing road and air transport, working from home where possible, and switching to electric cooking could significantly help cushion the shock for consumers, the agency said.

Heightened geopolitical risk has rattled traders, sending not only crude prices higher but also sharply increasing costs for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, which directly impact transportation, logistics and consumer prices.

Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on Feb. 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022 as supply has been severely disrupted, mostly due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Work from home, drive slower and don’t use gas cookers: IEA advice on weathering the global energy crisis

The strait is a narrow maritime corridor off Iran’s coast that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and normally carries about a fifth of global oil consumption. 

Countries have already begun tapping strategic petroleum reserves, with hundreds of millions of barrels slated for release. 

The IEA last week agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war — the largest such action in the organization’s history — without providing a timeline for when the stocks would enter the market. 

Lowering oil demand

While policymakers continue to manage supply disruptions, coordinated efforts to reduce consumption could provide the fastest relief. 

“Addressing demand is a critical and immediate tool to reduce pressure [on] consumers by improving affordability and supporting energy security,” the IAE said Friday, as it laid out a range of measures that can be taken by households and businesses to lower demand.

Among the most impactful steps are encouraging remote work where possible, increasing carpooling and public transit use, and cutting back on non-essential air travel.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

Measures focus primarily on road transport, which accounts for around 45% of global oil demand.

Working from home where possible reduces fuel demand for commuting, while lowering speed limits, shifting from private cars to public transport, and alternating private vehicle access in cities, could further reduce congestion and fuel consumption, the agency said. 

Measures to shift liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) use away from transport and towards essential applications like cooking can also help keep prices lower, as can adopting alternative clean cooking solutions that reduce reliance on LPG.

Taxes

Countries are also looking to fiscal measures to ease the pressure on consumers and prevent sharp rises in fuel prices that could add to inflationary pressures.

Spain is planning to reduce the value-added-tax (VAT) on fuel to 10% from 21%, according to a local media report citing sources familiar with the matter. The government will also eliminate a 5% tax on electricity, according to the report. 

Italy on Wednesday cut excise duties on fuel, while Germany’s finance ministry has said it is looking at ways to shield consumers from rising fuel prices, such as introducing a windfall tax on oil companies. 

Early Friday, international Brent crude futures with May delivery rose 1.3% to $109.93 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery traded largely flat at $96.20.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Government bonds face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles Europe’s central banks


Europe’s sovereign bonds are facing “a perfect storm” after new inflation fears sparked by the Iran conflict forced the region’s central banks to signal a new course for interest rates on Thursday, sending yields soaring.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, with the European Central Bank also holding steady on borrowing costs, as the economic impact of soaring energy costs hangs over rate-setters.

Yields on 10-Year Gilts, the benchmark for U.K. government debt, rose more than 13 basis points to 4.871% — a new 52-week high on Thursday — before easing.  The yield on 2-Year Gilts, which are typically more sensitive to rates decisions, immediately surged 39 basis points in the biggest rise since former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ‘Mini Budget’ in September 2022.  They were last seen 27 basis points higher, at 4.378%.

French, German and Italian bonds saw less severe selling pressure, but yields rose across the continent.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

Government bonds face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles Europe’s central banks

U.K. 10-Year Gilts.

Market strategists say the BoE’s move — a unanimous call by its nine-member monetary policy committee — effectively ends hopes of any further rate cuts this year and dramatically shifts the policy outlook from where it was just two weeks ago.

Tactical trading

Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors, said that the chances of a rate hike from the BoE over the coming months have increased.

“With this in mind, from an asset allocation perspective, we could start to see investors tactically adding overweights in gilts in the short-term, with at least one hike expected later in the year as of today,” Hutchings said.

Matthew Amis, investment director, rates management at Aberdeen Investments, described the unfolding environment as a “perfect storm” for Europe’s sovereign bond markets.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

Government bonds face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles Europe’s central banks

German 10-Year Bunds.

“Energy prices spiking higher and the Bank of England opening the door to potential rate hikes have seen gilts spike higher. German bunds are the relative calm in this storm but are still pushing 3% due to similar inflation fears,” Amis told CNBC via email.

“Gilts and bunds are pricing in a much longer conflict than other markets, focusing on the inflation surge with markets yet to focus on the potential negative impact on growth.”

Meanwhile, the ECB’s next move will now likely be a hike, according to Simon Dangoor, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income and head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

“The governing council is clearly sensitive to upside inflation risks, but will likely look to assess potential second-round effects before making a move,” Dangoor said. “A hike is therefore possible later in 2026; however, the ECB stands ready to act sooner if the situation deteriorates.”

‘An economic Dunkirk’

Energy prices continued their upward advance Thursday, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, hitting $111.10, a 3.5% rise, while natural gas prices also traded higher.

Europe has sought to diversify its energy mix following 2022’s price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the continent remains a net importer of both oil and gas.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

Government bonds face ‘perfect storm’ as Iran war rattles Europe’s central banks

Brent crude.

“Yields are waking up to the economic Dunkirk that faces the global economy thanks to the war in Iran,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, told CNBC via email. “Investors will demand higher borrowing costs from countries throughout Europe as the outlook darkens. And this is just with Brent at $110.”

Looking ahead, Amis said that if a genuine easing of tensions happens soon, government bond markets could start to look attractive. In that case, expectations of rate hikes that are now being priced in for the rest of 2026 could quickly reverse.

“However, for now, with no apparent end in sight and central bankers dusting down the ‘things we did wrong in 2022’ playbook, European sovereign markets will remain a volatile place,” Amis added.

But Nicholas Brooks, head of economic and investment research at ICG, said Thursday’s yield spike could prove short-lived. He said that oil would need to remain above $100 for an extended period before the ECB considered hiking, and suggested the central bank would likely hold its benchmark rate.

“While sustained higher energy prices will likely delay Fed and BoE rate cuts, we think by the second half of the year, both central banks have scope to cut rates,” Brooks told CNBC via email.

“While there is considerable uncertainty about the outlook, our base case remains that energy prices subside in the coming weeks and months and that government bond yields will fall from current levels,” he added.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Trump warns to ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue


An Iranian security personnel monitors an area in phase 19 of the South Pars gas field in Assalooyeh on Iran’s Persian Gulf coast 1,400 km (870 miles) south of Tehran on August 23, 2016.

Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned that if Iran continued targeting Qatar’s energy facilities, America would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field.”

Tehran has attacked a key energy facility in Qatar after Israel bombed the South Pars Gas in Iran, signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict and sending energy prices soaring.

Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian missiles caused “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the largest liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export facility in the world.

Trump also denied any prior knowledge of Israel attacking South Pars, pushing back against reports that the strike was coordinated with and approved by his administration.

In a social media post Wednesday night stateside, Trump said that “the United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen.”

Trump also urged Israel to end attacks on the South Pars gas field, unless Iran “unwisely” decides to attack Qatar. In that case, the U.S. will “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

Trump warns to ‘blow up’ South Pars gas field in Iran if strikes against Qatar energy continue

The attack on South Pars — the world’s largest natural gas reserve, shared between Iran and Qatar — marked the first time Israel has targeted Iranian natural gas production infrastructure since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Iran has fired ballistic missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, with ​QatarEnergy saying the attack had caused “extensive damage” warranting deployment of emergency response teams to contain fires at the site. No casualties were reported.

Separately, Reuters reported Thursday that the U.S. government was considering deploying thousands of U.S. forces to the Middle East, raising the prospect of further escalation.

As tensions spiral, world leaders are scrambling to contain the Middle East conflict amid fears of deepening the turmoil in global energy markets.

Europe calls for de-escalation

Gulf states sound alarm

The United Arab Emirates called the targeting of energy facilities linked to the South Pars field in Iran a “serious escalation,” posing “a direct threat to global energy security” with severe environmental repercussions.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs also called Iran’s targeting of its Habshan gas facility and Bab field a “terrorist attack,” risking a “dangerous escalation.”

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari described the Israeli strike on South Pars as “a dangerous and irresponsible step” amid escalating regional tensions.

The Gulf nation has declared Iranian military and security attachés and their staff at the Iranian embassy in Doha “persona non grata,” ordering them to leave the country within 24 hours.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud also appeared to toughen the tone, reportedly saying that “what little trust there was before with Iran has completely been shattered.” Both political and non-political responses to Iran remain on the table, he added.

Iran vows retaliation

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday threatened to escalate hostilities by targeting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

In a post on X, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, saying that they “could have uncontrollable consequences, the scope of which could engulf the entire world.”

The attacks on Middle East energy production facilities have further deepened supply disruption triggered by the conflict. Brent crude May futures rose 4% to $111.77 a barrel as of 10:25 p.m. ET , while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for April climbed over 1.3% to $97.56 per barrel.

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil supply and a significant share of LNG exports — has plunged since the war began, with the waterway effectively closed to most commercial shipping.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


Israel says it has killed Iran’s intelligence minister in third assassination in two days


Iran’s then incumbent Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib (C) sits with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian (C-R) before a speech to members of parliament in the capital Tehran, on August 17, 2024, as he defends his cabinet selection.

Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images

Israel’s Defense Forces said Wednesday that Iran’s Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib had been killed in a “targeted strike” in Tehran, marking the third assassination of a high-ranking official in just two days.

“Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, including the arrest & killing of protestors and led terrorist activities against Israelis & Americans around the world,” the IDF said in a post on social media.

“Similarly, he operated against Iranian citizens during the Mahsa Amini protests (2022–2023),” they added.

Iran has not yet commented on reports of Khatib’s death.

It comes after Israel said Tuesday that Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s Basij forces, Gholamreza Soleimani, had both been killed. Iran’s official judiciary news agency later confirmed the killing of Soleimani, the Associated Press reported.

According to AP, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement confirming Larijani was killed “along with his son Morteza Larijani and the head of his office, Alireza Bayat, as well as several guards.”

The IDF said Khatib was appointed to his position in 2021 by Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in strikes aimed at high-ranking Iranian officials at the beginning of the war on Feb. 28.

Iran has since retaliated by attacking its Gulf neighbors and targeting ships trying to pass through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Read more U.S.-Iran war news

The U.S. and Israeli-led war against Iran entered its 19th day on Wednesday, with Israel launching a series of strikes on Lebanon’s capital of Beirut as it continues its offensive against Tehran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

Iran and its allied military groups have launched a series of retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, amplifying fears of a sprawling regional crisis.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.


CNBC Daily Open: Risk-off trade back on for oil


Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle, and his latest round with reporters in the Oval Office has yielded more headlines and market moves this morning. It’s only Tuesday and already it’s been a volatile week for oil, which remains the epicenter of trading action.

Market participants — as well as us journalists — will need to stay on their toes to keep up with developments.

What you need to know today

Oil prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday as uncertainty lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump suggested Monday that the coalition was not fully in place as he urged other countries to get involved.

He voiced his frustrations by saying “some are very enthusiastic, and some are less than enthusiastic … and I assume some will not do it.”

Washington, meanwhile, is looking to postpone a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid the conflict with Iran. During a press conference in the Oval Office, he said, “There’s no tricks to it either. It’s very simple. We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

Back in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates reopened its airspace on Tuesday after a brief shutdown, as Iran continued missile and drone attacks. The UAE’s Defense Ministry said that air defenses have intercepted more than 300 ballistic missiles and 1,600 drones so far.

The volatility has led to a hike in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank raised its benchmark policy rate for a second consecutive time, citing concerns over the inflation risk posed by the war in Iran.

In stock markets, Asia-Pacific equities rose Tuesday as auto and tech stocks gained after Nvidia announced robust revenue forecast for its key chips, and partnerships with carmakers from the region. European and U.S. futures are lacking direction in early trade.

— Leonie Kidd

And finally…

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.