A temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparked a broad relief rally across assets on Wednesday, but experts warned that any deal concerning lasting peace will be complicated by a major trust deficit.

The ceasefire came following hastened diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan and just hours before Trump’s threatened deadline for wiping out the entire Iranian civilization, briefly pulling the region back from the brink of a massive military bombardment.

Oil prices cooled to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement, but remain far above the pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel.

While U.S. President Donald Trump said the two-week ceasefire was contingent on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials stated that safe passage through the strait would be “possible,” subject to coordination with its armed forces and “technical limitations” — caveats that may give Iran some room to define compliance on its own terms.

“This is a problem that could derail the ceasefire later this year,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, warning that the coordination requirement remains a risky ambiguity in both sides’ statements so far.

Trump may temporarily accept Iran as a gatekeeper — with U.S. midterm elections approaching and gasoline prices sharply higher than before the war — but after the election, the U.S. national security establishment will start to demand a more permanent solution,” said Gertken. “Fighting will ignite later this year, if not later this month.”

Tehran also said that its armed forces will cease defensive operations if attacks against Iran are halted. After the ceasefire came into effect at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, missiles were still launched from Iran towards Israel and several Gulf states.

The reprieve on Tuesday would allow some time for the two sides to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crisis, with their delegations expected to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

Iran is reportedly finalizing a joint maritime protocol with Oman to institutionalize coordinated management of tanker traffic through the strait, which could embed Iranian authority over the crucial energy artery into a standing bilateral agreement.

Israel agreed to suspend strikes but urged Washington to press for deeper Iranian concessions, including the surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles. In its 10-point terms, Iran requested Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program and the lifting of all sanctions.

The ceasefire will likely hold in the near term, given the economic costs accruing to the global economy from six weeks of conflict, said Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments. “Parties with vested interest in stopping the conflict and reopening the strait will double down on efforts to find a compromise,” he said.

If the truce holds and the strait reopens, the global economic damage should prove manageable, Langham added. Central banks could broadly resume their pre-conflict paths — and attention may shift from inflation to growth, if commodity prices normalize quickly, he added.

The ceasefire sparked a relief rally in markets amid repricing for a de-escalation in the conflict, but investors will watch for something more durable than a two-week pause, Geoff Yu, senior market strategist at BNY, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

“What the market is going to start pricing ahead is a first step towards further de-escalation and perhaps something more permanent,” he said, flagging that the disruption has extended beyond crude oil to commodities such as helium, critical to semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan.

U.S. trading partners offered a cautious welcome to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision Friday to strike down large parts of President Donald Trump’s flagship trade policy on global tariffs — but global trade bodies warned of lingering uncertainty surrounding import levies.

The law that undergirds the import duties “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” the majority ruled six to three in the long-awaited Supreme Court decision.

Hours after the ruling, Trump said he signed an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff”. The “Section 122” tariffs will take effect “almost immediately,” Trump said. At a White House press briefing Friday afternoon, Trump railed against the “deeply disappointing” 6-3 ruling.

Trump’s tariff regime impacted a swathe of countries from the U.K. to India and the European Union. Some governments, like Vietnam and Brazil are still in negotiations.

Taiwan, home to the the world’s leading contract chipmaker and producer of the most advanced semiconductors, said the 10% flat tariff rate would, according to an initial assessment, have a “limited impact” on its economy.

The island will continue to “closely monitor” developments and maintain close communication with the U.S. to understand the specific measures and respond in a timely manner, the Taiwanese cabinet said in a statement on Saturday.

French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly said the Supreme Court’s ruling proved the benefit of having an effective counterweight to power.

“It is not bad to have a Supreme Court and, therefore, the rule of law,” Reuters quoted him as saying at an event in Paris on Saturday.

A U.K. government spokesperson said the country would continue to work with the White House administration to understand how the ruling will affect tariffs for the U.K. and the rest of the world

“This is a matter for the U.S. to determine but we will continue to support U.K. businesses as further details are announced,” the spokesperson said.

“The U.K. enjoys the lowest reciprocal tariffs globally, and under any scenario we expect our privileged trading position with the U.S. to continue.” The U.K. agreed a wide-ranging trade deal with the U.S. in May last year, which imposed a broad 10% levy on many goods, but also included certain carve-outs on steel, aluminum, cars and pharmaceuticals.

The Supreme Court case focused mainly on reciprocal tariffs, and the ruling leaves much of the U.K.’s trade deal with the U.S. — including preferential sectoral tariffs on steel, pharmaceuticals and autos — unaffected.

However, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) trade body said the U.S. Supreme Court decision adds to the ongoing uncertainty around levies.

William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, said the move “does little to clear the murky waters” for British businesses, warning that the President still has “other options at his disposal” to retain his current regime on steel and aluminum tariffs.  

“The court’s decision also raises questions on how U.S. importers can reclaim levies already paid and whether U.K. exporters can also receive a share of any rebate depending on commercial trading terms,” Bain said in a statement. “For the U.K., the priority remains bringing tariffs down wherever possible.”

Olof Gill, European Commission spokesperson for trade and economic security, said businesses on both sides of the Atlantic depend on “stability and predictability.”

“We remain in close contact with the U.S. Administration as we seek clarity on the steps they intend to take in response to this ruling,” Gill said. “We therefore continue to advocate for low tariffs and to work towards reducing them.”

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister for U.S.-Canadian trade relations, said the decision “reinforces Canada’s position that the IEEPA tariffs imposed by the United States are unjustified.”