The surging price of jet fuel isn’t the airline industry’s only problem. Now, it’s whether it will have enough.

Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the price of jet fuel in the U.S. has nearly doubled, going from $2.50 a gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 a gallon on April 2, with the increases even sharper in other regions. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking off supplies of both crude and refined products like jet fuel, further driving up the price.

That’s forcing airlines to consider cutting flights, especially overseas.

Carsten Spohr, CEO of Germany’s Deutsche Lufthansa, told employees in a webcast last week that the carrier is assigning teams to come up with contingency plans because of the war in the Middle East, including for drops in demand or a lack of jet fuel, a spokesman said. Those plans could include grounding some of its aircraft.

The U.S. produces a lot of jet fuel and isn’t as exposed as other regions like Europe and parts of Asia are in comparison. But aircraft fill up locally, so some U.S. airlines could face shortages on international trips.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told reporters late last month that the carrier, which has the most service to Asia among U.S. airlines, would have to cut back its flights there. He also said it’s “not impossible” that airlines collectively would have to reduce service in that region.

He noted that as the price of jet fuel goes up, it could be more acute in parts of the U.S. that aren’t as connected by pipelines.

“There’s not enough refining capacity, and so fuel price prior to this and going forward is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” he said.

Kirby told employees earlier in March that the airline is preparing for oil to stay above $100 a barrel through 2027 and is pruning some of its flights in the near term.

“To be clear, nothing changes about our longer-term plans for aircraft deliveries or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, but there’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs,” he said in a March 20 message to employees.

Airlines overall are pruning some flights for the coming months, though they often adjust schedules throughout the year to match demand, aircraft availability or other complications.

Domestic capacity in the second quarter for U.S. carriers is up 2.1%, down from previous plans of 2.3% growth, while total capacity is set to rise 1.1%, down from 2.4% on the week ended March 20, according to a Monday report from UBS.

“We expect more capacity cuts in the coming weeks,” UBS said.

So far, airline executives have said that travel demand is strong, but the fuel strains and price spikes are a headache for carriers and passengers alike as the peak summer travel season approaches.

Fuel is generally airlines’ biggest expense after labor, and carriers are already raising airfare and fees like for checked luggage to make up for the added cost.

Investors will be listening for more insights into how the jet fuel spike could affect the industry as airline earnings kick off Wednesday with Delta Air Lines. That carrier owns a refinery, so it could benefit from jet fuel sales.

TOKYO/NEW YORK — Genevieve Price considers herself a great flight hacker.

The 35-year-old naturopathic doctor based in San Diego usually buys basic economy tickets when she visits her family in New Jersey and then uses her Alaska Airlines frequent flier status to pick a seat, something that’s usually not allowed for those no-frills fares.

“I like to travel a lot,” Price told CNBC at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport, where she was returning from Rome.

But Price said she has her limits, and is planning to cap the spending she does on future flights, such as no more than $900 to Rome, where her partner is from.

Consumers’ willingness to fly is being put to the test this spring as soaring fuel prices are leading to higher airfares. Cathay Pacific, SAS, Finnair and others are among the carriers that have already raised fares.

Travelers also have to contend with hourslong airport security lines in the U.S. because of the second government shutdown in half a year that’s hitting the Transportation Security Administration, leaving many frustrated.

Fuel at major U.S. airports was going for $3.98 on Wednesday, up nearly 60% since before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The conflict has meant crisis for the aviation industry, particularly in the Middle East, where airspace closures have forced carriers to cancel flights and take longer and costlier routes.

Airlines will brief investors starting early next month on the longer-term impacts, but they immediately started raising airfare or increasing fuel surcharges on tickets to help cover the rising costs.

DHS has blamed Democrats for the closure, which has become the longest partial shutdown in U.S. history. As of Friday afternoon, the Senate had passed a potential deal to end the shutdown, thought its fate was unclear.

NEW YORK — Andrew Leonard showed up at John F. Kennedy International Airport at 4:45 a.m. on Monday for his 7 a.m. flight to Seattle. Nearly two hours later, he made it through security and to his gate just in time for boarding.

“I fly out of this terminal all the time and this is insane,” said Leonard, a 34-year-old performing arts teacher in New York who was en route to Seattle ahead of a family vacation to Hawaii.

He is one of tens of thousands of travelers around the U.S. who are facing extra-long security wait times at major airport hubs such as Atlanta, New York and Houston due to elevated absences of Transportation Security Administration officers. TSA workers are facing a second missed full paycheck this week as a partial government shutdown continues.

White House border czar Tom Homan said Sunday said the administration would deploy Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to airports on Monday to help ease security lines amid the Department of Homeland Security shutdown.

ICE agents weren’t visible at checkpoints at Kennedy airport’s Terminal 8 early Monday, and it wasn’t clear where or when agents would be deployed. DHS and TSA didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early Monday.

Homan told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that the ICE agents will be “helping TSA move those lines along,” including by guarding exit doors to relieve TSA agents so they could screen travelers. “We’re simply there to help TSA do their jobs in areas that don’t need their specialized expertise.”

TSA’s more than 50,000 officers have been working without their regular paychecks since the partial government shutdown began in mid-February. The shutdown comes as Democrats in Congress demand changes to how federal immigration enforcement operates in exchange for releasing DHS funding after two U.S. citizens were shot and killed by officers in Minneapolis. 

Hundreds of TSA officers have quit since the shutdown started, according to their union, the American Federation of Government Employees.

Members of the travel industry, including airline executives, have blasted lawmakers for failing to pay essential government workers during repeated shutdowns that have snarled travel.

In early 2019 and in late 2025, two federal government shutdowns ended shortly after travel disruptions escalated following higher-than-typical absences of air traffic controllers. Their pay isn’t affected by this impasse.

New York’s LaGuardia Airport was closed on Monday morning following a collision of an Air Canada regional jet and an emergency vehicle on Sunday night. Some passengers told CNBC they had switched to fly out of Kennedy because of the disruptions.

The Federal Aviation Administration issued a ground stop at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey on Monday morning after air traffic controllers evacuated the tower because of a burning smell coming from an elevator, adding to travel chaos around New York City.

— CNBC’s Garrett Downs contributed to this article.

The surge in fuel prices since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago is already driving up airfare. Consumers’ appetite for travel this year will dictate just how much.

Cathay Pacific on Thursday said it would roughly double fuel surcharges on tickets starting March 18.

Earlier this week, Australia’s Qantas said it is raising fares to help cover its costs, Scandinavian Airlines said the “unusually rapid and substantial increase” in fuel prompted it to raise prices, and Air New Zealand pulled its financial outlook “until fuel markets and operating conditions stabilise,” adding that it has made “initial fare adjustments.”

“If the conflict leads to continued elevated jet fuel costs, the airline may need to take further pricing action and adjust its network and schedule as required,” Air New Zealand said.

U.S. airline CEOs and other executives will update investors on Tuesday at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington, D.C.

Analysts expect an earnings hit at least in the first quarter if not the first half of the year, though the impact will depend on how long higher fuel prices last.

“We think a hit to 1Q EPS appears almost certain at this point,” UBS airline analysts Atul Maheswari and Thomas Wadewitz wrote in a note last week.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said last week on the sidelines of an event at Harvard University that higher fares were likely on the way because of the surge in fuel prices.

Kirby said travel demand is still strong, however. Two other senior airline executives at U.S. carriers, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to media, also said travel demand has held up. If those trends persist, it could give airlines more pricing power, but that will depend on the war’s duration.

“Airlines never met a higher fare they didn’t want,” said Scott Keyes, founder of flight deal company Going, previously known as Scott’s Cheap Flights.

So what should consumers do?

Keyes said travelers can’t lose by booking early, as long as they’re not buying restrictive basic economy tickets. That way, customers can try to exchange or cancel their tickets and buy cheaper ones if airfare ends up falling.

“If you book a $500 summer flight today, and two weeks from now the price drops to $350, you can call up the airline and get the $150 difference back as a credit. Heads you win; tails the airlines lose,” he said.

Jet fuel is airlines’ biggest cost after labor, accounting for about a fifth or more of expenses, depending on the airline.

United alone spent $11.4 billion last year on fuel, at an average price of $2.44 a gallon, according to a securities filing. U.S. jet fuel on Wednesday was going for $3.78 a gallon, according to Platts.

Jefferies airline analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a note Thursday that she expects “the most acute financial impact to airlines from surging oil prices to be in the next 30-90 days as airlines have been booking yields for close-in flights assuming a much lower fuel price and carriers cannot retroactively raise fares.”

She said Delta Air Lines and United, which produce most U.S. airline profits, are better positioned than other carriers because of their high-end demand. Risks to demand, particularly for more price-sensitive customers, include the recent jump in gasoline prices.

Most U.S. airlines no longer hedge fuel costs, or lock in prices using futures and other securities. Southwest Airlines was one of the last holdouts, and it quit last year. A spokesman for the Dallas-based airline told CNBC that Southwest currently has “no plans” to resume hedging.

Travelers struggled with hours-long security lines at some airports as officials warned of Transportation Security Administration staffing shortages amid the partial government shutdown.

Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport told customers Sunday to arrive as early as 5 hours before their flights, and warned that security wait times could exceed three hours.

The partial government shutdown has meant that TSA officers are working but without regular paychecks.

TSA callouts rose during the 2018-2019 government shutdown, prompting the closure of some checkpoints and leading to longer screening lines. It ended hours after a shortfall of air traffic controllers curtailed flights on the East Coast. The current shutdown, however, is affecting only Department of Homeland Security employees, including TSA officers.

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, the world’s busiest, as well as Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport, said travelers should arrive at least 3 hours early because of the disruptions.

“Due to impacts from the federal government’s partial shutdown, there is a shortage of TSA workers at the security checkpoint,” New Orleans’ airport said on a post on X. “The Airport has staff on hand to help keep the lines organized, and we will continue to coordinate with our federal partners with the TSA as they navigate this issue.

Sunday’s disruptions rattled the airline industry and travelers just as the busy spring-break travel period gets underway.

“Airlines have done their part to prepare; now Congress and the administration must act with urgency to reach a deal that reopens DHS and ends this shutdown,” Chris Sununu, chief executive of Airlines for America, an industry group that represents American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, and others, said in a statement. “America’s transportation security workforce is too important to be used as political leverage.”

The disruptions come as airlines are grappling with the fallout of the U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran, which have led to thousands of canceled flights and driven up the cost of fuel, their biggest expense after labor.

The Transportation Security Administration said on Sunday that its PreCheck airport screening lanes are operational, an about-face hours after the Department of Homeland Security said the faster security checkpoints were paused amid the partial government shutdown.

Travel industry leaders said they received little, if any, warning of the changes to PreCheck, a program that allows its 20 million pre-screened members to pass through airport security faster than at standard lanes. Industry members spoke with DHS officials in the past few hours and expressed alarm about the sudden decision, people familiar with the matter said.

“At this time, TSA PreCheck remains operational with no change for the traveling public,” TSA officials said in a statement. “As staffing constraints arise, TSA will evaluate on a case by case basis and adjust operations accordingly. Courtesy escorts, such as those for Members of Congress, have been suspended to allow officers to focus on the mission of securing America’s skies.”

DHS early Sunday said that PreCheck and Global Entry and other program suspensions were scheduled to take effect at 6 a.m. ET on Sunday. As of 12:40 p.m. ET, its updated statement still included a suspension of Global Entry but it had removed its mention of PreCheck.

“We are glad that DHS has decided to keep PreCheck operational and avoid a crisis of its own making,” Geoff Freeman, chief executive of U.S. Travel, an industry group whose members include major airlines, hotel chains like Hyatt and Marriott International and tourism boards around the country.

The move comes as a partial U.S. government shutdown that has left thousands of DHS workers, including TSA airport screeners, working without pay since it started on Feb. 14.

“TSA and CBP are prioritizing the general traveling population at our airports and ports of entry and suspending courtesy and special privilege escorts,” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement.

Noem blamed Democrats for the shutdown.

“Shutdowns have real world consequences, not just for the men and women of DHS and their families who go without a paycheck, but it endangers our national security,” she said. “The American people depend on this department every day, and we are making tough but necessary workforce and resource decisions to mitigate the damage inflicted by these politicians.” 

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, (D-N.Y.), pushed back, saying the Trump administration is “choosing to inflict pain on the public instead of adopting common sense” reforms of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.

DHS did not say whether it expected to reverse its suspension of Global Entry or what prompted the change. The White House referred an inquiry from CNBC to DHS.

Travel industry experts sharply criticized the move before it was reversed, which comes just months after last year’s record federal government shutdown cost airlines millions of dollars and hurt bookings, according to executives. The sector’s leaders have repeatedly complained about how air travel has ended up at the center of repeated shutdowns and have pushed lawmakers to ensure that essential government workers are paid during funding lapses.

The government shutdown in the fall, the longest ever, cost the travel industry and other sectors $6.1 billion, the group said. Those disruptions affected about 6 million travelers.

“A4A is deeply concerned that TSA PreCheck and Global Entry programs are being suspended and that the traveling public will be, once again, used as a political football amid another government shutdown,” said Airlines for America CEO Chris Sununu. The group represents American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines and other major carriers.

“The announcement was issued with extremely short notice to travelers, giving them little time to plan accordingly, which is especially troubling at this time of record air travel,” he added.

The U.S. Travel Association said earlier: “We are disgusted that over the last 90 days, Democrats and Republicans have used air traffic controllers, TSA, CBP and the entire travel experience as a means to achieve political ends,” it said in a statement.

The measures come as a massive winter storm bears down on the Northeast U.S., which could disrupt airline flights for days.

Airlines have canceled thousands of flights through Monday and waived cancellation and change fees for airports spanning Virginia to Maine ahead of the East Coast blizzard.

— CNBC’s Garrett Downs contributed to this article.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.