The U.S. labor market bounced back in March, with job creation much stronger than expected though the broader picture of a slow-growth labor market held intact.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. February’s number was revised down by 41,000 while January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000, putting the three-month average around 68,000.

With job creation higher, the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%.

As has been the case, health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000. A strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente in February hit the sector. The BLS said ambulatory health care services rose by 54,000, with 35,000 coming from the strike workers returning.

Construction saw an increase of 26,000, while transportation and warehousing posted a gain of 21,000.

On the downside, the federal government saw a loss of 18,000, while financial activities lost 15,000.

Though the unemployment rate posted a decline, the move largely came from a decline of 396,000 in the labor force. The share of working-age Americans in the labor force fell to 61.9%, its lowest since November 2021.

The survey of households, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed 64,000 fewer people holding jobs. An alternative unemployment figure that counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 8%.

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Nonfarm payrolls are expected to bounce back — barely — in March as the bar keeps getting lower for what constitutes a healthy labor market.

The U.S. economy is projected to show job gains of 59,000 for the month, an anemic rate by the standards of previous years this decade but enough to keep the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

If the estimate is reasonably accurate, it actually would represent above-trend job growth for a labor market that has created virtually no jobs over the past year.

Immigration restrictions, shifting demographics and geopolitical uncertainty have left companies eager neither to hire nor fire workers en masse, resulting in a static labor market and a series of ho-hum monthly counts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS will release the number Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, though the stock market will be closed in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

“We have to revise our idea of what a good or bad job number is,” said Guy Berger, chief economist at Homebase, which provides workforce management services for small businesses.

A report like February’s showing job losses “would have been raising alarm bells about the state of the labor market,” he added. “Now we’re like, yeah, that was a very bad report, but it doesn’t freak anybody out about the job market. I didn’t look at that report and say, wow, we’re on the verge of tipping into recession.”

Echoing views expressed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bankers, Berger said he’s more focused on the unemployment rate as a gauge of labor market stability.

In a recent report, the St. Louis Fed updated previous research on the breakeven level for job growth. The bank’s economists now think that number could be as low as 15,000, with a high end of 87,000.

That’s a steep drop from an estimate as recent as April 2025 that showed the breakeven level at 153,000, and an update in August of that year putting the number between 32,000 to 82,000.

In other words, the labor market needs nowhere near the job growth it required previously to keep the population near full employment.

“Things have been slowly getting worse each for the last few years,” Berger said, but added, “There’s no real sign of us tipping into a recession.”

Some economists on Wall Street disagree. Goldman Sachs, Moody’s Analytics and others in recent days have raised their odds of recession in the next 12 months, with a focus on threats from a slowing jobs picture and surging energy costs.

Earlier this week, BLS data showed that the rate of hiring as a share of the workforce fell to 3.1%, its lowest level since the Covid recession in 2020 and, before that, January 2011.

Still, Homebase’s data is consistent with other indicators, including the ADP private payrolls report for March, showing modest gains in payrolls. February’s loss of 92,000 jobs came in part due to a since-resolved strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente that sidelined some 31,000 workers in California and Hawaii.

The Wegovy pill showed more pronounced weight loss and less cumbersome side effects than Eli Lilly‘s rival pill that was approved this week, Novo Nordisk said Thursday. 

Oral Wegovy demonstrated “significantly greater mean weight loss” than orforglipron, which Lilly will sell under the brand name Foundayo from next week, in an indirect study that compared the outcomes of other studies.

Novo’s findings evaluated previously published studies of the medicines and did not include any fresh data points. It will present further details of the study at the Obesity Medicine Association’s annual conference next week, the Danish drugmaker said.

A separate analysis suggested that 84% of patients favored a drug profile similar to that of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, to that of Foundayo, Novo said. 

“These studies add to the growing body of evidence supporting the clinical strength of semaglutide and highlight attributes that patients value when choosing an obesity medicine that fits their lifestyle,” said newly-appointed Jamey Millar, executive vice president for U.S. operations. 

It comes as Novo and Lilly are both trying to shape the narrative of their respective pills, which is broadly considered to be the start of the next phase of the weight-loss drug era. The introduction of pills as an alternative to injections is expected to scale the market, as they are more easily distributed worldwide and favored by consumers. 

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC this week that Foundayo is more accessible and can more easily be fitted into daily routines. 

Novo said Thursday that the latest findings suggest that the Wegovy pill can offer differentiation, which has become an important consideration as the anti-obesity space looks set to become increasingly competitive over the next few years. Hopeful market entrants are narrowing in on obesity-related diseases, weight maintenance, and better side-effect profiles. 

Novo Nordisk rose as much as 4% after England’s drug price regulator recommended the use of its best-selling drug Wegovy to prevent heart attacks and strokes.

Wegovy is mainly a weight loss treatment but it is also approved for reducing the risk of major cardiovascular events in people living with overweight or obesity.

The new recommendation the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), England’s drug price regulator, will significantly expand access to Wegovy on the country’s National Health Service (NHS).

The regulator, which assesses a medicine’s cost-effectiveness, recommended semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic, as an option for adults who have previously had a heart attack, a stroke, or a serious circulation problem in the legs and who have a body mass index (BMI) of at least 27.

Novo’s Copenhagen-listed shares were last seen up 2% in morning trading, paring some earlier gains. The pan-European blue-chip index Stoxx 600 was up 2.1%.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week pushed back when asked whether stagflation posed a threat to the U.S. economy. His successor may face a tougher challenge, as Wall Street forecasters raise their expectations of recession, brought on in part by the Iran war and potential for higher prices.

In recent days, economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains over the past year.

Moody’s Analytics’ model has raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to 48.6%. Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate to 30%. Wilmington Trust has the odds at 45%, while EY Parthenon has it at 40%, with the caveat that “those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict.”

In normal times, the risk for a recession in any given 12-months span is around 20%. So while the current predictions are hardly certainties, they signify elevated risk.

The situation poses a tough challenge for policymakers who are being asked to balance threats to the labor market against sticky inflation.

“I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.”

Talk of an economic contraction has accelerated as the war with Iran has dragged on.

An oil shock has preceded virtually every recession the U.S. has seen since the Great Depression, save for the Covid pandemic. Prices at the pump have risen by $1.02 a gallon over the past month, an increase of 35%, according to AAA.

While economists still debate the pass-through impact from higher energy, the trend has held.

“The negative consequences of higher oil prices happen first and fast,” Zandi said. “If oil prices stay kind of where they are through Memorial Day, certainly through the end of the second quarter, that’ll push us into recession.”

Like his fellow forecasters, Zandi said his “baseline” expectation is that the warring sides find a diplomatic off-ramp, oil flows again through the Strait of Hormuz and the economy can avoid a worst-case scenario.

To be sure, economists as a lot are negative and subject to the old trope about predicting nine of the last five recessions. Markets also have been wrong about where the economy is headed. A portion of the yield curve — or the spread between various Treasury maturities — most closely watched by the Fed has sent repeated false recession signals for much of the past 3½ years.

But the threat of a prolonged war, pressure on a consumer who drives more than two-thirds of all growth, and a labor market that created virtually no jobs in 2025 collectively raises the risk that the expansion could falter.

“That path through is increasingly narrow, and it’s getting increasingly difficult to see the other side,” Zandi said.

Consumers also are pessimistic. Consumer site NerdWallet said its March survey showed 65% of respondents expect a recession in the next 12 months, up 6 percentage points from the month before.

Beyond energy prices, economists say the labor market is a key pressure point.

The U.S. economy created just 116,000 jobs for all of 2025 and lost 92,000 in February. While the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.4%, that’s largely been because of a dearth of firing rather than a burst in hiring.

Indeed, stocks have had a rough ride during the war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 5% during the hostilities — important because consumer spending and sentiment have been supported by higher-income households benefiting most from rising equity prices.

Gross domestic product is on track to grow at a 2% pace in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of rolling data. However, that’s coming off an increase of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the product in part of the government shutdown. Economists had expected that the drain on growth in Q4 would translate to a boost in Q1, but the effects of that appear to be modest.

Still, if global leaders can find an end to the war soon, the economy again is expected to skirt the gloomiest predictions. Stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill in 2025 is projected to goose growth, with lower regulations and a boost in tax returns that could help consumers cope with elevated prices. A sustained rise in production also is a factor in the economy’s favor.

“There is support underneath,” said North, the Allianz economist. “That makes me real hesitant to use the ‘R’ word. But certainly, I think we’re seeing a slowdown this year.”

Novo Nordisk has dropped its legal case against telehealth provider Hims & Hers over patent infringement, after the two companies agreed Hims would sell Novo’s branded medicines through its platform. 

“We have decided to drop the current court proceedings and, of course, we reserve to bring that back if need be, but I don’t foresee that happening,” Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Monday.

Under the agreement, Hims will offer access to injectable and oral semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Wegovy, at the same price as other telehealth platforms, and Hims will no longer advertise compounded GLP-1 drugs on its platform or in its marketing, the companies said in statements on Monday. 

Shares of Hims soared more than 40% in morning trading while Novo’s Copenhagen-listed stock climbed 2.1%. The pan-European blue-chip index Stoxx 600 was trading 1% lower, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.

In February, Novo said it would sue Hims for what it called “mass illegal compounding” after the latter announced it would sell a copycat version of the Wegovy pill for $49, roughly $100 less than Novo sells the branded pill for through its direct-to-consumer platform NovoCare. 

Hims quickly pulled the pill after backlash from both Novo and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The FDA pledged to take “decisive steps” to restrict practises by compounding pharmacies, and referring Hims to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law.

FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said he was glad to see that Hims will stop advertising unapproved compounded drugs and instead sell FDA-approved products through the deal with Novo.

“Importantly, they will keep them affordable (no increase in price) and limit compounded GLP-1s for rare (FDA compliant) cases,” Makary wrote in a post on X.

Hims has profited hugely from selling copycat versions of the blockbuster weight-loss drug through a loophole in U.S. regulations that allows companies other than the patent holder to sell a drug if it is in shortage.

While semaglutide was in shortage in the early days of the medicine, Novo has since resolved supply restraints as it ramped up manufacturing. Hims, however, continued selling copycat versions of the drugs, arguing that its copies are “personalized” and therefore legal.

Semaglutide’s patent is protected in the U.S. until 2032.

Last year, Novo and Hims partnered to offer discounted weight loss jabs to the telehealth company’s customers. Novo ended the collaboration just two months later and said Hims used “deceptive” marketing that put patient safety at risk.

“It’s a very different situation than the last time we did this,” Doustdar told CNBC.

“Hims & Hers have agreed that upon receiving our products, they will no longer advertise, promote, market compounded products to the masses,” he said, adding that Hims has now agreed to change its business model to reserve the compounding versions “only to those rare cases where they’re needed.”

Novo now has more than 600,000 Wegovy pill scripts, Doustdar said.

Doustdar acknowledged that at the time of launching the Wegovy pill in January, there were question marks, “a bit fuelled by our competitor,” that certain food restrictions may limit the uptake of the pill.  

“Well, I have news for you, this has been absolutely not the case,” he said. “People are really interested because it’s the most efficacious pill right now in the market.”

Hims’ existing patients on compounding semaglutide “will have the opportunity to transition to FDA-approved medicines when determined clinically appropriate by their providers,” Hims said in a statement.

Speaking to CNBC’s Brandon Gomez, Hims CEO Andrew Dudum highlighted the rapidly shifting landscape for anti-obesity drugs.

“The demand will continue to accelerate with the new assortment that’s coming out, and the assortment really does serve the needs across affordability, personalization, form factor that historically, even just six months ago and 12 months ago did not exist,” he said.

Hims is also in conversation with anybody who can bring new therapies to the platform, he added, “whether that’s existing biotech or existing large drug companies.”

Zepbound-maker Eli Lilly is expected to launch a rival weight loss pill called orforglipron in the second quarter, pending FDA approval.

Private sector hiring was a bit better than expected in February, though most of the job creation came from just two sectors, ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added a seasonally adjusted 63,000 workers during the month, an improvement from the downwardly revised 11,000 in January and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 48,000, according to the payrolls processing firm’s latest update.

Though the total beat expectations, the issue of breadth continued to be a problem for the labor market.

Education and health services, an industry that has been the primary driver for job creation, added 58,000 jobs for the month, easily leading all sectors. After that, construction contributed 19,000, with the two industries offsetting stagnant growth across most other sectors.

Professional and business services saw a decline of 30,000 positions, manufacturing lost 5,000 and trade, transportation and utilities was off 1,000. Other than a gain of 11,000 in information services, there was little movement elsewhere. Manufacturing continued to decline despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to use tariffs to reshore jobs in the industry.

On the wage side, pay grew 4.5% for those staying in their jobs, unchanged from January. However, the wage gains for job switchers moved down to 6.3%, a 0.3 percentage point decline from the prior month. Those results reduced the incentive for changing jobs to the lowest level since ADP began tracking the metric.

“We’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs.”

In a switch from recent months, job creation was concentrated at businesses with fewer than 50 employees. That group saw gains of 60,000, while big businesses with 500 or more workers added 10,000 and medium-sized firms reported a drop of 7,000.

Job growth has taken a step down over the past year as the Trump administration has clamped down on illegal immigration and as the pace of post-Covid hiring has slowed. While companies have been reluctant to add workers, layoffs have remained low as well.

The report comes with questions over the state of the labor market as well as worries about stubbornly higher inflation, the latter coming even more into view with the fighting in Iran and the Middle East.

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate somewhat higher confidence that the jobs picture is stabilizing. At the same time, worries are increasing that a bump in oil prices will drive inflation higher. Traders are now indicating the next Fed interest rate cut won’t come until at least July and have lowered the probability for a second cut this year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker.

The ADP release precedes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wall Street is looking for a February increase of 50,000 jobs from the report, which unlike ADP also includes government hiring. Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%.

Novo Nordisk was the first company to make a GLP-1 drug for weight loss and became Europe’s most valuable company.

But its troubles are stacking up and today the stock trades at just a quarter of what it did at its peak less than two years ago.

Pricing pressure, fierce competition, and pipeline setbacks have all hit the Danish drugmaker in recent months.

Despite being first to launch a GLP-1 drug for weight loss, Novo’s market share has eroded, and the company now only captures about 40% of the market, while rival Eli Lilly holds 60%, according to most estimates.

Novo is clear-eyed about the challenges it faces, especially around pricing. After the company pre-released its 2026 forecast earlier this month and predicted declining sales, CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC: “People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up.”

He’s repeatedly said that new medicines, the Wegovy pill, and increased volumes will drive long-term growth.

These charts show the scale of the challenges Novo is facing.

Novo Nordisk is often referred to as a diabetes and obesity pure play. Its portfolio included six branded drugs with annual sales of at least $1 billion in 2025, fewer than comparable current and future rivals.

Eli Lilly boasts eight so-called blockbuster drugs, and its portfolio also includes oncology and gene therapies.

The combined sales of Ozempic and Wegovy, Novo’s two biggest drugs, amounted to about $32 billion, or about 67% of total sales, last year. Combined sales of Lilly’s two biggest drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, were about $37 billion, or about 56% of the company’s total sales over the same period.

Novo also sells insulin, including blockbusters Tresiba and NovoRapid, as well as some drugs for rare diseases like hemophilia, but none come close to bringing in what its GLP-1 drugs do.

Among large-cap pharma companies hoping to enter the market for weight loss drugs in the coming years, such as AstraZeneca, Roche, Amgen, and Pfizer, through its acquisition of Metsera, the number of blockbuster drugs was significantly higher.

Novo Nordisk has also come under pressure as prices for GLP-1 drugs are coming down in its most important market, the U.S.

The U.S. has accounted for more than half of Novo’s total sales since 2023, and falling prices there are weighing on both the company’s topline and profitability. Last year, Novo and Lilly reached a deal with the Trump administration to lower prices on their GLP-1 drugs on Medicare and Medicaid and offer the treatments directly to consumers at a discount.

“In 2026, Novo Nordisk will face pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive market,” said CEO Mike Doustdar, as the company’s full-year earnings report was published earlier this month.

Novo stock is down 75% since peaking at just over 1,000 Danish kroner a share in mid-2024.

The stock is up a little over 10% over the last five years. That compares to Eli Lilly’s 400% rise and the European blue-chip index Stoxx 600‘s 55% gain over the same period.

Investors were last rattled on Monday when Novo reported disappointing results of a trial pitting its next-generation weight loss drug, CagriSema, against Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, also known as Zepbound, sending the stock down over 16% on the day.

“Confidence in the share is at rock bottom,” said Jyske Bank analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen on Tuesday.

Earlier this month, Novo Nordisk said it expected sales and profits to drop by between 5% and 13% in 2026. If that comes to be true, it would be the first time annual sales have declined since 2017, in local currencies.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect sales to come in about 8% lower in 2026 compared to 2025. Much of that is due to increasing competition from both Eli Lilly and compounding pharmacies that are selling copycat versions of Novo’s branded drugs for a lower price.

Longer term, other large-cap pharma companies are planning to enter the market, and are pitching investors more differentiated weight loss drugs to be able to secure a slice of the market share for themselves.

Novo is hoping CagriSema can beef up future sales, but after the latest trial results, analysts are increasingly doubting its commercial potential.

Novo said it is optimistic about the drug, and that further trials would assess its full weight-loss potential.

The Wegovy pill is another potential growth driver for Novo and had a strong launch. However, it remains to be seen how it will fare if Lilly launches its rival pill, expected to hit the market in the second quarter, and what effects lower prices might have on volumes.