Newswise — Winter Storm Fern swept across a large swath of the southern and eastern United States, delivering not just a wide range of snow accumulation, but also snow types. Experts say one big reason for those differences comes from a meteorological phenomenon — that the same amount of total precipitation can deliver very different amounts of measurable snowfall, depending on the underlying conditions.

Barrett Gutter, a meteorologist at Virginia Tech who teaches classes in weather analysis, weather forecasting, and severe weather, explains that the snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR), or how much moisture is in a snowflake, can be impacted by a number of factors.

“Very dry snow, which often occurs in mountainous terrain and higher latitudes, can have SLR values closer to 20:1 (20″ of snow = 1″ of liquid), while very wet snow, which often occurs in the southeast, can have SLR values closer to 6:1,” he says.

This explains why snow totals in the Rocky Mountains are often much higher than along the east coast ranges. But elevation isn’t the only determining factor.

“Lower temperatures throughout the atmosphere will lead to drier and fluffier snow (higher SLR) since there tends to be less moisture available, while higher temperatures (closer to freezing) will lead to wetter and denser snow.”

Other factors that impact snow-to-liquid ratios include the height in which snowflakes form, moisture content, and wind speed.

This led to record snowfall totals in places like Toronto, which received nearly two feet of accumulation, while the mid-Atlantic got less total snow, but several inches of sleet, which settled into hard-packed ice.

About Gutter
Barrett Gutter is a collegiate assistant professor of meteorology. Gutter teaches a wide variety of courses, including Weather Analysis, Weather Forecasting, Severe Weather, and Radar and Satellite Meteorology. He also leads a two-week storm chase field course during the summer.

Interview
To schedule an interview with Barrett Gutter, contact Noah Frank at nafrank@vt.edu or 805-453-2556.

Newswise — ALBANY, N.Y. (Jan. 22, 2026) — A major winter storm is expected to bring dangerously low temperatures and heavy snow through the weekend across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the United States, from the southern Plains to the Northeast. 

The storm is expected to develop on Friday, creating a hazardous mix of heavy snow and ice that could cause power outages for millions of Americans and make roads impassable. 

Allison Finch, lead meteorologist at the University at Albany’s State Weather Risk Communication Center, is closely monitoring the storm. She says snow, freezing rain, sleet, gusty winds and dangerously cold temperatures are all among the hazards expected. 

“From Texas to the Mid-Atlantic states, this storm looks to bring snow and a widespread swath of ice,” Finch said. “Ice is a very impactful hazard to begin with, but when it occurs in areas that doesn’t typically experience it as often, impacts can be exacerbated. Among the impacts is the likelihood of power outages. Anyone who loses a heat source may be impacted since temperatures are not expected to rebound quickly after the storm.” 

Finch points to two main factors fueling the storm — cold air from Canada and moisture moving up from the Gulf of Mexico. 

“A powerful Arctic air mass is sweeping across the U.S. late this week and into next week, bringing temperatures well below average,” Finch said. “At the same time, a large plume of moisture originating from warm ocean waters is being drawn into that Arctic air. When that moisture gets wrapped into the cold air mass, it provides the fuel needed for a widespread and potentially high-impact winter storm.”  

Launched in 2023, the State Weather Risk Communication Center is a first-of-its-kind partnership between UAlbany and the New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services that leverages the University’s expertise in atmospheric sciences to help emergency managers prepare for and respond to severe weather events. 

The Center provides rapid, tailored, real-time weather information and custom weather services to New York state and local public-sector partners.  

Finch, along with other meteorologists at the State Weather Risk Communication Center, are available to share their insights on this weekend’s winter storm via phone or live/recorded interviews.    

For the latest conditions in New York, follow the NYS Mesonet, a statewide weather observation network operated by UAlbany, which provides real-time data from monitoring sites across the state. 

About the University at Albany:  

The University at Albany is one of the most diverse public research institutions in the nation and a national leader in educational equity and social mobility. As a Carnegie-classified R1 institution, UAlbany faculty and students are advancing our understanding of the world in fields such as artificial intelligence, atmospheric and environmental sciences, business, education, public health, social sciences, criminal justice, humanities, emergency preparedness, engineering, public administration, and social welfare. Our courses are taught by an accomplished roster of faculty experts with student success at the center of everything we do. Through our parallel commitments to academic excellence, scientific discovery and service to community, UAlbany molds bright, curious and engaged leaders and launches great careers.  

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Newswise — WASHINGTON, Feb. 3, 2026 — Arctic sea ice has large effects on the global climate. By cooling the planet, Arctic ice impacts ocean circulation, atmospheric patterns, and extreme weather conditions, even outside the Arctic region. However, climate change has led to its rapid decline, and being able to make real-time predictions of sea ice extent (SIE) — the area of water with a minimum concentration of sea ice — has become crucial for monitoring sea ice health.

In Chaos, by AIP Publishing, researchers from the United States and the United Kingdom reported accurate, real-time predictions of SIE in Arctic regions. Sea ice coverage is at its minimum in September, making the month a critical indicator of sea ice health and the primary target of the work.

“Indigenous Arctic communities depend on the hunting of species like polar bears, seals, and walruses, for which sea ice provides essential habitat,” said author Dimitri Kondrashov. “There are other economic activities, such as gas and oil drilling, fishing, and tourism, where advance knowledge of accurate ice conditions reduces risks and costs.”

The researchers’ approach treats sea ice evolution as a set of atmospheric and oceanic factors that oscillate at different rates — for example, climate memory at long timescales, annual seasonal cycles, and quickly changing weather — while still interacting with one another. They used the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s average daily SIE measurements from 1978 onward to find the relationships between these factors that affect sea ice.

Testing their prediction method live in September 2024, and retroactively for Septembers of past years, the group confirmed their technique is generally accurate and can capture effects from subseasonal to seasonal timescales. They predicted SIE ranging from one to four months out and found their predictions outperformed other models.

In general, long-term climate forecasts tend to be easier and more reliable than short-term predictions. However, by incorporating regional data into their model, the researchers were able to improve short-term ice and weather estimates.

“The model includes several large Arctic regions composing [the] pan-Arctic,” said Kondrashov. “Despite large differences in sea ice conditions from year to year in different regions, the model can pick it up reasonably accurately.”

The group plans to improve their model by including additional oceanic and atmospheric variables, such as air temperature and sea level pressure. These variables can cause fast changes and short-term fluctuations that are not currently reflected in the model, and the researchers hope these additions will further enhance the predictability of summertime Arctic sea ice.

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The article “Accurate and robust real-time prediction of September Arctic sea ice” is authored by Dimitri Kondrashov, Ivan Sudakow, Valerie N. Livina, and QingPing Yang. It will appear in Chaos on Feb. 3, 2026 (DOI: 10.1063/5.0295634). After that date, it can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0295634.

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

Chaos is devoted to increasing the understanding of nonlinear phenomena in all areas of science and engineering and describing their manifestations in a manner comprehensible to researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines. See https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha.

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