From war to weather: A ‘super El Niño’ event poses fresh risks to global food costs


A batch of exported urea fertilizers is being concentrated at the port for shipment at Yantai Port in Shandong Province, China on March 26, 2026.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

An unusually powerful El Niño later this year could exacerbate food security fears as disruption caused by the Iran war strains supply for crucial fertilizer products.

Climate scientists warn it appears increasingly likely that a planet-warming El Niño will take shape over the coming months, with U.S. meteorologists estimating a one-in-three chance of a “strong” weather event forming in October to December.

European climate models indicate an even higher probability of a very strong or “super El Niño,” although the so-called spring barrier means that these forecasts can be inaccurate.

El Niño — or “the little boy” in Spanish — is widely recognized as the warming of the sea surface temperature, which occurs naturally every few years. Such an event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

A super El Niño, which doesn’t have an official scientific category, is understood to refer to an exceptionally strong phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal.

Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst, food and farming at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said 2026 was shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks have become a costly reality.

“Food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by climate extremes disrupting production in major growing regions, and by a food system still hooked on fossil fuels and therefore exposed to spikes in gas, fertiliser, transport and packaging costs,” Jaccarini told CNBC by email.

“That is why the prospect of a strong El Niño matters,” he continued. “It can turbocharge weather risks in a climate already destabilised by human emissions, compounding inflation driven by high fossil fuel prices.”

2026 might produce a super El Niño weather pattern. In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen.

Paul Donovan

chief economist at UBS

Some commodities are particularly exposed to the weather event, with El Niño typically putting upward pressure on cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar, Jaccarini said. He also cited broader risks for other products linked to the tropics, such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate and soy-fed meat.

Expectations of El Niño’s return follow a multi-year La Niña event, which generally has the effect of lowering global temperatures compared to normal years.

‘Super El Niño’

A general view of the Hong Kong skyline in fog on March 29, 2026 in Hong Kong, China.

Sawayasu Tsuji | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Every energy price spike inevitably stokes fears of higher food prices given that fertilizer manufacture is energy intensive and natural gas is used to produce some chemicals, according to Paul Donovan, chief economist at Swiss bank UBS.

“However, higher fertilizer prices may not be the biggest agricultural price threat this year, 2026 might produce a super El Niño weather pattern,” Donovan said in a note published in late March.

“In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen,” he added.

Significant risks

Analysis published by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) last month warned that the number of food-insecure people across the globe could reach levels last seen at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

The WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute hunger could jump by 45 million if the Iran war persists beyond June and oil prices stay above $100 per barrel. This prediction would add to the 318 million people across the globe who are already food insecure.

From war to weather: A ‘super El Niño’ event poses fresh risks to global food costs

Dawid Heyl, a co-portfolio manager for the global natural resources strategy at Ninety One, said the prospect of an El Niño event poses a risk to global food production, but the extent of this risk depends on when the climate phenomenon develops, how extreme it is and how long it lasts.

“I’ve been saying this to so many colleagues and anyone who would listen, but I wasn’t really concerned about Russia-Ukraine in terms of food inflation,” Heyl told CNBC by video call.

“I am a lot more concerned about [the Iran war] this time around, because of the impact on nitrogen, fertilizer production and availability,” Heyl said.

Asked about the prospect of a powerful El Niño event developing in the wake of the sprawling Middle East crisis, Heyl said: “If you get two negative factors like that combining then it could really be tough going.”

A tractor drips nitrogen fertilizer onto rows of romaine lettuce at Pisoni Farms near Gonzales, California, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The likes of India, Australia, Brazil and Argentina were all cited as countries that could be significantly exposed to El Niño, Heyl said, albeit for different reasons.

The European Union, meanwhile, said earlier this month that an El Niño event later this year threatens northwestern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan with dry conditions, “posing a significant risk to the main agricultural season.”

Food security

For the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit’s Jaccarini, the answer to deepening food security fears lies in recognizing that risks to the global food system are not going away anytime soon.

“With traditional geopolitical partnerships under strain, international collaboration matters more than ever. Reducing food price volatility depends on reaching net zero together,” Jaccarini said.

“Climate finance from wealthy nations to producer countries with low climate readiness helps farmers adapt to climate impacts and protect crops and livelihoods,” he added.

— CNBC’s Chloe Taylor contributed to this report.

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Amazon tribe facing extinction welcomes new member with unexpected birth



SAO PAULO (AP) — Pugapia and her daughters, Aiga and Babawru, lived for years as the only surviving members of the Akuntsu, an Indigenous people decimated by a government-backed push to develop parts of the Amazon rainforest. As they advanced in age without a child to carry on the line, many expected the Akuntsu to vanish when the women died.

That changed in December, when Babawru — the youngest of the three, in her 40s — gave birth to a boy. Akyp’s arrival brought hope not just for the Akuntsu line but also for efforts to protect the equally fragile rainforest.

“This child is not only a symbol of the resistance of the Akuntsu people, but also a source of hope for Indigenous peoples,” said Joenia Wapichana, president of Brazil’s Indigenous protection agency, known as Funai. “He represents how recognition, protection and the management of this land are extremely necessary.”

In this photo provided by Funai, Babawru Akuntsu, top, rests beside Akyp, her newborn son, at the Regional Hospital of Vilhena in Vilhena, Rondonia state, Brazil, on Dec. 9, 2025, one day after the birth. AP

Protecting Indigenous territories is widely seen as one of the most effective ways to curb deforestation in the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest and a key regulator of global climate.

Researchers warn that continued forest loss could accelerate global warming. A 2022 analysis by MapBiomas, a network of nongovernmental groups tracking land use, found Indigenous territories in Brazil had lost just 1% of native vegetation over three decades, compared with 20% on private land nationwide.

In Rondonia state, where the Akuntsu dwell, about 40% of native forest has been cleared, and what remains untouched is largely within conservation and Indigenous areas. The Akuntsu’s land stands out in satellite images as an island of forest surrounded by cattle pasture as well as soy and corn fields.

In the 1980s, deforestation pushed attacks in Rondonia

Rondonia’s deforestation traces back to a government-backed push to occupy the rainforest during Brazil’s military regime in the 1970s. Around the same time, an infrastructure program financed in part by the World Bank promoted domestic migration to the Amazon, including the paving of a highway across the state.

In the 1980s, Rondonia’s population more than doubled, according to census data. Settlers were promised land titles if they cleared the forest for agriculture and risked losing claims if Indigenous people were present, fueling violent attacks by hired gunmen on Indigenous groups such as the Akuntsu.

Funai made first contact with the Akuntsu in 1995, finding seven survivors. Experts believe they had numbered about 20 a decade earlier, when they were attacked by ranchers seeking to occupy the area.

Funai agents found evidence of the assault, and when they contacted the Akuntsu, the survivors recounted what happened. Some still bore gunshot wounds.

The last Akuntsu man died in 2017. Since then, Babawru lived with her mother, Pugapia, and Aiga, her sister. The women, whose ages aren’t known for certain, have chosen to remain isolated from the non-Indigenous world, showing little interest in it.

In 2006, Funai granted territorial protection to the Akuntsu, establishing the Rio Omere Indigenous Land, which they have since shared with the Kanoe people. The two groups, once enemies, began maintaining contact, usually mediated by officials. The relationship is complex, with cooperation but also cultural differences and language barriers.

The Associated Press requested a facilitated interview with the women through Funai, but the agency didn’t respond.

The Rio Omere Indigenous Territory is a territory for isolated indigenous peoples in Rondonia, Brazil. Joe Roe

Amanda Villa, an anthropologist with the Observatory of Isolated Peoples, said Akuntsu women depend on Kanoe men for tasks considered masculine, such as hunting and clearing fields. The two groups have also exchanged spiritual knowledge — the current Kanoe spiritual leader, for example, learned from the late Akuntsu patriarch.

But the most consequential development for the future of the Akuntsu may have occurred last year, when Babawru became pregnant by a Kanoe man.

Linguist Carolina Aragon is the only outsider able to communicate with the three women after years of studying and documenting their language. She works closely with Funai, translating conversations almost daily through video calls.

Aragon also supported Babawru remotely during her labor and was with her during an ultrasound exam that confirmed the pregnancy.

Aragon said Babawru was stunned by the news. “She said, ‘How can I be pregnant?’” Aragon recalled. Babawru had always taken precautions to avoid becoming pregnant.

Social collapse shaped the Akuntsu’s choices

The surviving Akuntsu women had decided they would not become mothers. The decision was driven not only by the absence of other men in their community, but also by the belief that their world was disorganized — conditions they felt were not suitable for raising a child.

“You can trace this decision directly to the violent context they lived through,” said Villa, the anthropologist. “They have this somewhat catastrophic understanding.”

The Akuntsu believed they could not bring new life into a world without Akuntsu men who could not only perform but also teach tasks the group considers male responsibilities, such as hunting and shamanism.

“A breakdown of social relations that followed the genocide shaped their lives and deepened over the years. That does lead people to think — and rethink — the future,” Aragon said. “But the future can surprise everyone. A baby boy was born.”

Aragon said the women were embarking on a “new chapter,” choosing to welcome the child and adapt their traditions with support from the Kanoe and Funai. Villa said the fact that the newborn is a boy creates the possibility of restoring male roles like hunter.

A location map of the Igarape Omere Indigenous Territory in the state of Rondonia, Brazil, is pictured.

Researchers and officials who have long worked with the three women understood that protecting the territory depended on the Akuntsu’s survival as a people. They sought to avoid a repeat of what happened to Tanaru, an Indigenous man who was discovered after living alone and without contact for decades.

After the discovery, authorities struggled to protect Tanaru’s territory. After he died in 2022, non-Indigenous groups began disputing the land. Late last year, the federal government finally secured the area, turning it into a protected conservation unit.

Funai’s Wapichana said Babawru’s child “is a hope that this next generation will indeed include an Indigenous person, an Akuntsu, ensuring the continuity of this people.”

Through years of careful work, Funai secured territorial protection for the Akuntsu and helped foster ties with the Kanoe. The agency also arranged spiritual support from an allied shaman, allowing the women to feel safe bringing new life into the world after decades of fear and loss.

The Akuntsu form emotional bonds with the forest and with the birds. Now, they are strengthening those bonds with a new human life in their world.

“What kind of relationship will this boy have with his own territory?” Aragon said. “I hope it will be the best possible, because he has everything he needs there.”