From war to weather: A ‘super El Niño’ event poses fresh risks to global food costs


A batch of exported urea fertilizers is being concentrated at the port for shipment at Yantai Port in Shandong Province, China on March 26, 2026.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

An unusually powerful El Niño later this year could exacerbate food security fears as disruption caused by the Iran war strains supply for crucial fertilizer products.

Climate scientists warn it appears increasingly likely that a planet-warming El Niño will take shape over the coming months, with U.S. meteorologists estimating a one-in-three chance of a “strong” weather event forming in October to December.

European climate models indicate an even higher probability of a very strong or “super El Niño,” although the so-called spring barrier means that these forecasts can be inaccurate.

El Niño — or “the little boy” in Spanish — is widely recognized as the warming of the sea surface temperature, which occurs naturally every few years. Such an event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

A super El Niño, which doesn’t have an official scientific category, is understood to refer to an exceptionally strong phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal.

Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst, food and farming at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said 2026 was shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks have become a costly reality.

“Food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by climate extremes disrupting production in major growing regions, and by a food system still hooked on fossil fuels and therefore exposed to spikes in gas, fertiliser, transport and packaging costs,” Jaccarini told CNBC by email.

“That is why the prospect of a strong El Niño matters,” he continued. “It can turbocharge weather risks in a climate already destabilised by human emissions, compounding inflation driven by high fossil fuel prices.”

2026 might produce a super El Niño weather pattern. In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen.

Paul Donovan

chief economist at UBS

Some commodities are particularly exposed to the weather event, with El Niño typically putting upward pressure on cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar, Jaccarini said. He also cited broader risks for other products linked to the tropics, such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate and soy-fed meat.

Expectations of El Niño’s return follow a multi-year La Niña event, which generally has the effect of lowering global temperatures compared to normal years.

‘Super El Niño’

A general view of the Hong Kong skyline in fog on March 29, 2026 in Hong Kong, China.

Sawayasu Tsuji | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Every energy price spike inevitably stokes fears of higher food prices given that fertilizer manufacture is energy intensive and natural gas is used to produce some chemicals, according to Paul Donovan, chief economist at Swiss bank UBS.

“However, higher fertilizer prices may not be the biggest agricultural price threat this year, 2026 might produce a super El Niño weather pattern,” Donovan said in a note published in late March.

“In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen,” he added.

Significant risks

Analysis published by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) last month warned that the number of food-insecure people across the globe could reach levels last seen at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

The WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute hunger could jump by 45 million if the Iran war persists beyond June and oil prices stay above $100 per barrel. This prediction would add to the 318 million people across the globe who are already food insecure.

From war to weather: A ‘super El Niño’ event poses fresh risks to global food costs

Dawid Heyl, a co-portfolio manager for the global natural resources strategy at Ninety One, said the prospect of an El Niño event poses a risk to global food production, but the extent of this risk depends on when the climate phenomenon develops, how extreme it is and how long it lasts.

“I’ve been saying this to so many colleagues and anyone who would listen, but I wasn’t really concerned about Russia-Ukraine in terms of food inflation,” Heyl told CNBC by video call.

“I am a lot more concerned about [the Iran war] this time around, because of the impact on nitrogen, fertilizer production and availability,” Heyl said.

Asked about the prospect of a powerful El Niño event developing in the wake of the sprawling Middle East crisis, Heyl said: “If you get two negative factors like that combining then it could really be tough going.”

A tractor drips nitrogen fertilizer onto rows of romaine lettuce at Pisoni Farms near Gonzales, California, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The likes of India, Australia, Brazil and Argentina were all cited as countries that could be significantly exposed to El Niño, Heyl said, albeit for different reasons.

The European Union, meanwhile, said earlier this month that an El Niño event later this year threatens northwestern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan with dry conditions, “posing a significant risk to the main agricultural season.”

Food security

For the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit’s Jaccarini, the answer to deepening food security fears lies in recognizing that risks to the global food system are not going away anytime soon.

“With traditional geopolitical partnerships under strain, international collaboration matters more than ever. Reducing food price volatility depends on reaching net zero together,” Jaccarini said.

“Climate finance from wealthy nations to producer countries with low climate readiness helps farmers adapt to climate impacts and protect crops and livelihoods,” he added.

— CNBC’s Chloe Taylor contributed to this report.

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Hope for new low cost slimming pill as daily tablet beats oral semaglutide in trial


A new pill could help patients lose more weight than current oral weight loss medications, a promising new study has found.

The drug, called orforglipron, is a GLP-1 agonist and targets the same appetite receptors as fat jabs such as Mounjaro, Wegovy and Ozempic, but is taken in tablet form rather than administered via injection.

Orforglipron has been developed to treat type 2 diabetes and as part of a review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) was compared to an existing medication, oral semaglutide, sold under the brand name Rybelsus.

Rybelsus and the Wegovy Pill – which launched in the US in January and NHS chiefs hope to roll out in the UK by the end of this year – are the same medication, but the former is approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and the latter for weight loss.

In a trial of over 1,500 patients from Argentina, China, Japan Mexico and the US, patients who took orforglipron for a year experienced a greater drop in blood sugar levels and lost more weight than those on semaglutide.

In the study, 1,698 participants were randomly assigned to receive either orforglipron, at a dose of 12mg or 36mg, or oral semaglutide, at 7mg or 14mg.

Participants took their medication every day for a year, starting on a lower dose and increasing every four weeks until reaching their randomly assigned dose.

Results showed that both doses of orforglipron were better than that of semaglutide in reducing blood glucose levels, and they also lost more weight.

Hope for new low cost slimming pill as daily tablet beats oral semaglutide in trial

The new drug was tested against the diabetes treatment version of the Wegovy pill 

Patients with type 2 diabetes are recommended to lose between 5-15 per cent body weight to help manage their condition, with a more than 10 per cent reduction having disease-modifying effects including potential remission.

Up to 43 per cent of participants on orforglipron were able to drop at least 10 per cent body weight, while only 21 per cent of those on semaglutide dropped enough weight to slash their risk of heart complications.

However, the weight loss seen among people taking orforglipron was not as extreme as results seen in patients taking Mounjaro, which contains the active ingredient tirzepatide.

Orforglipron can also be taken with food, making it much more convenient than semaglutide, which needs to be taken on an empty stomach. Experts have already stated that they believe GLP-1 tablets will be more accessible than injections – and potentially in the future, more affordable due to different packaging, storage and shipment requirements.

Writing in medical journal The Lancet, the authors said: ‘Our results suggest that orforglipron represents an important advancement in the oral treatment landscape for type2 diabetes.

‘It’s efficacy, safety, tolerability, and simple doing could address important barriers associated with current therapies, offering a new highly efficacious and safe option for individuals seeking glycemic and weight control with the use of injections.’

The researchers noted the difference in blood sugar control was already significant after just a month of treatment and was sustained until the end of the trial.

The results were particularly strong for patients with higher blood sugar levels at the start of the trial.

Around a quarter of patients taking orforglipron managed to reach near-normal blood sugar levels during the course of the study whilst only around 12 per cent of those on semaglutide managed to reduce their blood sugar to safe levels.

If approved, orforglipron (which like Mounjaro, is manufactured by Eli Lily) could become the next GLP-1 drug approved for use ‘off label’ for weight management.

Weight loss jabs have transformed obesity treatment, offering dramatic weight loss that was largely out of reach with diet and exercise alone.

Two in three Britons are now overweight or obese, driving a nearly 40 per cent rise in type 2 diabetes among under 40s.

The researchers concluded: ‘Orforglipron represents meaningful improvements in glycemic control and weight reduction compared with oral semaglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes, and with larger improvements in cardiometabolic risk factors and simplified administration.’

However, during the course of the study around 10 per cent of participants on orforglipron had to stop taking the pill due to adverse reactions, such as gastrointestinal issues.

Only 5 per cent of patients taking semaglutide experienced similar adverse reactions.

 


Vinicius Junior and Prestianni row exposes deeper racism concerns in Argentina football and culture


Gianluca Prestianni’s alleged racial abuse of Vinicius Junior may not be a one-off incident but a symptom of a deeper malaise in Argentina’s culture.

Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior was again at the centre of a disparaging racist abuse scandal after Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni allegedly called him a “monkey” during the Champions League playoff between the European clubs. In just eight years at Real Madrid, Brazil football star Vinicius Junior has experienced at least 26 incidents of racist abuse, according to La Liga.

The above shocking stat only highlights how far we are from eliminating racism from the world’s most popular sport in 2026. This was a prestigious Champions League game involving one of the biggest football clubs in the world, and yet racism found a way into all of this.

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No surprise that Prestianni rcially abused Vinicius 

The 20-year-old Argentina winger Prestianni is young, and some may say a little stupid, but this wasn’t just some harsh tackle or choice words about a player or his family;
it was a direct attack on Vinicius’ race. It was just another way of trying to highlight race supremacy while degrading another ethnicity.

That the abuse came from Prestianni, when there were so many other Benfica players on the pitch as Vinicius scored the winning goal on Tuesday and celebrated extravagantly, was a direct result of cultural issues that persist back home in Argentina.

Argentine players have constantly been involved in alleged racist incidents on and off the football field. The Lionel Messi-led Argentina national football team was also embroiled in a similar incident after winning the Copa America by beating Colombia in the final in 2024.

In a disheartening video that went viral, Chelsea player Enzo Fernandez and his Argentina teammates were seen singing a derogatory song towards the
Black players of the French football team, questioning the legacy of their ancestors and their right to represent the European nation.

One part of the song was: “They play for France but their parents are from Angola. Their mother is from Cameroon while their father is from Nigeria. But their passport says French.”

Angered by the chants, France defender Wesley Fofana hit out at the Argentina team with a strongly worded message on X: “Football in 2024: uninhibited racism.”

In 2025, Argentina was once again among six national federations that were found guilty of racist abuse during World Cup qualifiers.

And it’s not just restricted to the national team. In 2022, supporters of Argentine football club Boca Juniors were arrested during a Copa Libertadores match against Brazil’s Corinthians in Sao Paulo for making “monkey gestures” and Nazi salutes.

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Argentina wants ‘White society’

To understand the deeper reasons why Argentine players or fans have consistently been involved in racist incidents, one needs to have a closer look at their culture.

In an article from New Lines Magazine that was published in 2024, Pablo Alabarces, a professor of popular culture in the faculty of social sciences at the University of Buenos Aires, argued that Argentinians are suffering from a superiority complex.

As the population of Black people decreased in Argentina, the belief among locals that they are merely European whites living in South America has made it hard for them to have themselves compared to other races.

“Argentina has constructed several overarching myths — no nation can do without them. One such myth is that we are a European society,” Alabarces wrote.

He also added that there’s a lack of awareness among Argentines about what really constitutes racism. As the majority of the Black population in Argentina before independence were slaves, it has left behind the feeling that “Black” is a word for a classist insult, as Black people are seen as poor people.

Vinicius Junior and Prestianni row exposes deeper racism concerns in Argentina football and culture
The black population in Argentina has decreased significantly over the years. Image: AP

“In Argentina, ‘there are no Black people.’ Therefore, thankfully, we are not racist — we cannot be racist. ‘Black’ is used only as a classist insult: Black people are the poor people. The poorer, the blacker. But that is not racism, according to the good conscience of the white, urban middle classes,” Alabarces added.

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According to the 2022 census, Afro-Argentines make up less than 1% of Argentina’s population. Not surprisingly, it was around 15% in the 19th century, around the time of freedom from Spain. Where did they all disappear? Make of it what you may, but academicians and historians argue that there has been a concentrated effort in Argentina to make society look ‘White’ and hide Black people.

Maybe the highly frequent racist abuse acts by their footballers and fans are a symptom of the same ill-thought-out policy. The saddest thing is that there is no realisation yet that they are being racist.

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