Ontario is planning a massive expansion of jails over the next few decades, The Canadian Press has learned.

The province’s jails are bursting and have been significantly over capacity for years, with the situation worsening. Ontario plans to add nearly 6,000 jail beds by 2050, documents obtained by University of Ottawa researchers through freedom-of-information laws show.

The plan is broken down into three phases, with the first phase underway, says the transition binder prepared last year for Solicitor General Michael Kerzner.

Ontario’s jails “are experiencing significant capacity challenges (i.e., there are approximately 2,000 more inmates than beds — the equivalent of five large jails),” the documents say.

The ministry said the capacity problems are “complex,” but several factors are contributing to the rise, including a backlog in the court system to deal with those on remand in jail awaiting trial, inmates remaining in custody longer, bail reform and population growth.

The first phase of the province’s plan includes 1,170 new beds by 2032 at a cost of $4 billion, though the document notes only $2.9 billion has been approved.

Those efforts include the $1.2-billion project currently underway to build the new Thunder Bay Correctional Complex that will replace an aging jail, plus new, expanded or refurbished jails in Brockville, Kemptville and Napanee, and modular builds in Niagara, Milton and Sudbury, the documents show.

“Phase 1 projects will provide incremental relief in our overcrowded facilities,” the documents say. “However, the need is growing over the next 10 years, and another 3,500-4,500 beds are still required.”

Phase 2 will deliver an estimated 1,500 beds at six sites between 2033 and 2041 “through a combination of expansions and new institutions,” documents say. Phase 3 will see another “2,000-3,000” jail beds built between 2040 and 2050.

The Ministry of the Solicitor General prepared the binder for Kerzner, who was re-elected in the snap election Premier Doug Ford called in February 2025, more than a year early. Kerzner has since returned to the role of solicitor general, who is responsible for law enforcement and provincial correctional facilities across Ontario.

“We’re going to build as many beds as we need to protect Ontario,” Kerzner said Monday. “We’ve got an aggressive plan.”

He hinted the province will be expanding the modular jail builds that will accommodate 300 more beds and is looking to reopen the jails in Brantford and Walkerton.

The documents note that jail capacity as of February 2025 is 8,508 beds, which means the province is planning to increase capacity by 66 per cent.

Mackenzie Plumb, a PhD candidate in the criminology department at the University of Ottawa, obtained Kerzner’s March 2025 transition binder through a recent freedom-of-information request.

She works under Justin Piché, a criminology professor at the University of Ottawa, who researches provincial jails and federal prisons. They shared the documents with The Canadian Press.

“When I saw the numbers, my jaw hit the floor,” Piché said in an interview. “This is an unprecedented increase in jail capacity.”

The plan will be “extremely expensive,” Piché warned.

He said the proposed plan would cost at least $7 billion in today’s money to build some 6,000 new beds. He based his estimates on the cheapest build the provinces are currently doing, which are 50-bed modular jails at a cost of $1.2 million per bed.

The cost increases significantly for non-modular jails, like the new Thunder Bay jail, said Piché. That jail will double inmate capacity of the current institution and bring 345 beds with a cost of $1.2 billion.

It costs about $1.5 billion per year to operate the jails, Piché said, which would jump to more than $2 billion per year in today’s dollars when all those new beds become reality.

“As a researcher who studies prison construction and alternatives to incarceration, this is the wrong direction to be heading in,” said Piché, who is also a member of the Coalition Against Proposed Prisons.

“Imprisonment is the most costly and ineffective way to enhance community well-being and safety.”

Kerzner said he has been transparent with the public about the province’s plans, though neither he nor Ford have laid out their long-term vision for jails.

The province already “ambushed” the residents of Kemptville, a small town outside Ottawa, with news of the proposed jail back in 2020, said Victor Lachance, a local resident who founded the Coalition Against Proposed Prisons.

The documents show the province is not being transparent about its jail expansion plans, he said.

“As more communities are damaged by the Ford government’s jail boom, our Coalition Against Proposed Prisons will support residents in towns and cities across Ontario as they fight to stop prison expansion and push the province to spend more on things that actually make us safer,” Lachance said.

The province has been dealing with overcrowded jails for years now.

In September 2023, there was an average of 8,889 people in provincial jails, well over the 7,848-person capacity, data obtained by The Canadian Press shows. Overall, jails were operating at 113 per cent capacity at that time.

At the time, 81 per cent of those inmates were awaiting trial and presumptively innocent. The provincial institutions hold people who are accused of a crime but not on bail, as well as those serving sentences of two years less a day. Inmates with longer sentences are housed in the federal prison system.

In response to the 2023 story about jail capacity, Ford pledged to build more jails.

Criminal lawyers and correctional officers have said the jam-packed jails have deleterious effects on both inmates and jail guards.

The union representing correctional officers has said inmates are triple bunking in several institutions, while guards are dealing with increased assaults and struggling with their mental health. The Criminal Lawyers Association has said accused individuals are taking longer to get to a bail hearing, contributing to the rise in jail populations.

Global News published newly released data on Monday that shows Ontario’s jails are operating at 130 per cent capacity, a marked jump from 2023. The Sudbury Jail, the news outlet noted, stood at 165.7 per cent capacity as of October 2025.