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World Baseball Classic: Italy vs Venezuela odds, preview, predictions & betting tips


Italy and Venezuela close out the semifinal stage of this year’s World Baseball Classic on Sunday night in Miami. The Italians have been the biggest surprise in this year’s tournament, taking down Team USA in the pool stages and knocking off Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. Along with the Dominican Republic, Italy remains as the only other squad that has yet to be beaten this campaign.

Venezuela, on the other hand, has largely flown under the radar until the quarterfinals. The team has quietly disposed off adversaries and even attempted a comeback to the DR before falling just short in their only loss so far. In the quarters, they shocked the baseball world by taking down defending champion Japan in a tense affair.

World Baseball Classic: Italy vs Venezuela Odds

  • Moneyline: Italy +140 | Venezuela -175
  • Run line: Italy +1.5 (-105) | Venezuela -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110)

Preview: Probable starting pitchers and lineups

Italy probable starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen

Newly-signed Colorado Rocky Michael Lorenzen gets the start against the prolific Venezuela squad. The former All-Star was steadfast in his previous start against the United States. In what is considered as the biggest upset of this year’s World Baseball Classic, he held Team USA to two hits and no runs with a walk and two strikeouts in a 4 2/3 inning shift.

Italy projected lineup

  1. San Antonacci (2B)
  2. Thomas Saggese (SS)
  3. Jakob Marsee (CF)
  4. Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)
  5. Dominic Canzone (DH)
  6. Jac Caglianone (RF)
  7. Andrew Fischer (3B)
  8. J.J. D’Orazio (C)
  9. Dante Nori (LF)

Venezuela probable starting pitcher: Keider Montero

Tigers upstart Keider Montero will get his first start of the World Baseball Classic. He appeared during Venezuela’s 4-0 win against Nicaragua in the pool stage, relieving Yoendrys Gomez. He gave up no runs and struck out two while giving up three runs in a three-inning shift.

Venezuela projected lineup

  1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (RF)
  2. Maikel Garcia (3B)
  3. Luis Arraez (2B)
  4. Eugenio Suarez (DH)
  5. Willson Contreras (1B)
  6. Salvador Perez (C)
  7. Wilyer Abreu (LF)
  8. Javier Sanoja (CF)
  9. Andres Gimenez (SS)

With the odds being so closely tied to each other, it’s evident that the game could go either way. Italy has proven that its discipline and awareness can propel even an underdog to great heights. Under the guidance of Francisco Cervelli (who was born in Venezuela to a Venezuelan mother and Italian father), the team has surprised fans and analysts with their deep World Baseball Classic run.

For Venezuela, limiting Italy’s firepower and finding holes in the defense. The Venezuelans have already proven that they can come back from a far stronger opponent in Japan, they just have to remained disciplined and not let the pressure get into their heads.

Prediction: Italy 7, Venezuela 6

Betting Tips

  • Moneyline: Italy +140
  • Run line: Italy +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 10 (-110)