The next Wallabies coach has problems to fix. The Waratahs could be the beneficiaries
Les Kiss has some problems at the Reds. It would look awkward for Rugby Australia if Kiss moves into the Wallabies job following a failed Super Rugby campaign, but it is possible given how the Queensland side is playing.
They were beaten up during the 42-19 loss to the Western Force on Saturday, and some of their key leaders aren’t playing well: they desperately need Tate McDermott back on the field.
The Reds’ next four fixtures are the Crusaders (home), Blues (Super Round in Christchurch), Brumbies (home) and Chiefs (home). In fact, if the Waratahs have a pathway to the playoffs, it will come at the expense of the Reds.
The Waratahs may have their own limitations, but they are only four competition points behind the Reds. Their next four games are: Moana Pasifika (home), Crusaders (Super Round in Christchurch), Western Force (home) and Highlanders (away) – on the face of it, an easier quartet of fixtures.
The Reds have conceded 94 points in their past two games, and the Crusaders will wipe the floor with them in Brisbane next Saturday unless the Reds find some starch and address the workrate issues a frustrated Kiss identified at halftime against the Force.
Why the Waratahs are so up and down
The 42-14 loss to the Chiefs on Saturday wasn’t entirely unexpected; Hamilton is a tough place to go when the Chiefs are searching for a response to patchy performances of their own.
However, as the game unfolded, it appeared the Waratahs were paying a price for their heavy defensive efforts in Canberra the week before. Some of their better players against the Brumbies looked flat in New Zealand.
Captain Matt Philip struggled badly and was exposed defensively before being replaced in the 50th minute; the scrum was uncharacteristically dominated.
There is no easy answer. In an ideal world, the Waratahs would have a couple of fringe Wallabies props to take the load off Tom Lambert and Dan Botha, but Dan McKellar doesn’t have that luxury: he must have looked at the two All Blacks hookers in the Chiefs’ matchday 23 with envy.
Still, the Waratahs coaches will need to be clever about squad rotation for the rest of the season; after next week’s bye, they have seven consecutive games.
Super Rugby Team of the week
- Aidan Ross (Reds)
- Brandon Paenga-Amosa (Western Force)
- Nick Bloomfield (Reds)
- Franco Molina (Western Force)
- Darcy Swain (Western Force)
- Nick Champion de Crespigny (Western Force)
- Jack Daly (Western Force)
- Vaiolini Ekuasi (Western Force)
- Henry Robertson (Western Force) – Player of the round
- Ben Donaldson (Western Force)
- Max Jorgensen (Waratahs)
- Bayley Kuenzle (Western Force)
- George Bridge (Western Force)
- Darby Lancaster (Western Force)
- Mac Grealy (Western Force)
Trans-Tasman imbalance might be getting worse
At the halfway point of the competition, the Brumbies are the only Australian team with a positive points differential.
That statistic usually indicates how teams are performing, and there is a chance the top four at the end of the season will consist of four New Zealand teams.
The Brumbies represent the best chance of stopping that from happening, but they must travel to New Zealand twice to face the Highlanders and the Hurricanes.
The trip to Dunedin on Friday is a game they can’t afford to lose if they want to finish in the top three and guarantee a home game in the first week of the playoffs. But at this stage, Rugby Australia is looking at a worst-case scenario: all three playoff fixtures being held across the Tasman.
This imbalance is enormously problematic for the competition as a whole, and crowd numbers at many games in both Australia and New Zealand show that it is struggling to capture the imagination.
Lomax’s eyes will be lighting up
How quickly things can change in sport. During the first half of the Reds v Force game, it was hard to see a way into the Force starting lineup for former NRL star Zac Lomax, as Dylan Pietsch (the human pinball) and Darby Lancaster were playing so well.
But Pietsch’s failure to return after halftime and Lancaster’s unlucky injury while scoring a try opened the door for Lomax once he recovers from his own hamstring twinge.
Had Lomax scored the try that Lancaster did with some great aerial work, the NRL hype machine would have exploded, but the cross-code convert must have loved Force No.10 Ben Donaldson’s pinpoint cross field kick that created it.
The Force’s attack at Suncorp Stadium had a lovely balance: halfback Henry Robertson passed the ball 111 times to his rampaging forwards compared to Donaldson’s 35. However, as a rule, the Force look to give the ball some width with Donaldson at No 10.
That means Lomax should get an opportunity to accentuate his strengths while building up his understanding of the game. As for Lancaster, that injury is a cruel blow because he had been playing his way into Wallabies contention.
Molina’s Los Pumas warning shot
There was some soft defence that will make for an ugly Reds review on Monday, but take nothing away from the determination of Force lock Franco Molina.
The Los Pumas forward was an unlikely three-try hero in Brisbane, and his performance highlighted once again the advances made by Argentine rugby. Molina isn’t a headline act for Los Pumas by any means, but the way he barged past multiple Reds defenders was a warning shot when you consider what’s ahead of the Wallabies this year.
It has gone under the radar slightly, but the Wallabies have two tests against Argentina in late August/early September.
Like the Wallabies, Los Pumas will want to make a statement after also being frozen out of the South Africa-All Blacks tour, and Molina is another example of the hard-nosed but mobile forwards they keep rolling off the production line.
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Paul Cully is a rugby columnist for The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.