If one thing became clear at the HumanX conference in San Francisco this week, where 6,500 executives, founders and investors gathered to talk about artificial intelligence, it’s that OpenAI no longer dominates the conversation in their industry. For now, at least, that distinction belongs to Anthropic.

Anthropic’s viral coding agent, Claude Code, was the tool on everyone’s lips, even as many attendees acknowledged that OpenAI, Cursor and Google are offering strong alternatives. 

Despite its spat with the Pentagon that went public last month and quickly made its way to the courtroom, Anthropic has only gained momentum. The Department of Defense blacklisted Claude, but after opposing rulings in two courts, Anthropic can keep working with other federal agencies while the cases play out.

Anthropic’s early strength in the enterprise has positioned it to benefit from the soaring popularity of AI coding agents, which are used to generate, edit and review code. So while OpenAI kicked off the generative AI boom with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, Anthropic may be best set up to win contracts from the biggest spenders.

CNBC spoke with 19 executives and investors at HumanX, some of whom asked not to be named in order to speak freely. Here are the top three takeaways. 

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by a group of researchers and executives who defected from OpenAI. The startup is valued at $380 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies in the world. 

Cisco President Jeetu Patel said roughly 85% of his company’s engineering workforce, or about 18,000 employees, are using AI, but the path to getting there was unlike what he’d anticipated. Patel said Cisco initially learned it i needed to prioritize adoption over outcomes, and to trust that model capabilities will continue to improve. 

The fragile two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran has massive implications for energy and financial markets across the globe. But the vast majority of execs and investors who spoke to CNBC at HumanX this week said they’re not yet experiencing any direct business impact from the latest conflict in the Middle East. 

In AI, a model is considered open weight if its parameters, or the elements that improve its outputs and predictions during training, are publicly available. As of April, Chinese open-weight models, including GLM-5.1, Kimi K2.5 and Qwen3.5, dominate industry benchmarks.

American companies are swarming to China’s models. Cursor built its Composer 2 model using Kimi 2.5. Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky told CNBC in October that his company’s chatbot was largely dependent on Alibaba’s Qwen.

Given the importance the U.S. AI industry is placing on beating China when it comes to innovation, there’s a big emphasis domestically on closing the gap in open weight. Two investors told CNBC they’re dedicating a lot of their time and resources to that effort, and a third said it’s one of the key problems for the industry to solve right now. 

Glean’s Jain said having multiple options is critical.

“The trend that we see is that enterprises today, they’re very wary of depending on one or two providers for all of their AI,” Jain said. “They don’t want to work with just one model company, because they know that innovation is happening across many and also in open source. You want to have a choice.”

WATCH: OpenAI slams Anthropic in memo to shareholders

Once the go-to location for global drugmakers, Europe is now being squeezed by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and drug-pricing policies on one side, and China’s explosive biotech boom on the other.

The pharma industry is a cornerstone of Europe’s economy, but the continent’s declining competitiveness has companies looking elsewhere to place investments. And the issue isn’t just economic. New launches of critical medicines are at stake, as prices and regulations discourage companies from launching them on the continent.

Uncertainty in the U.S. and threat of most-favored-nation pricing “has given pharma companies a lever to pull the negotiations with European governments or European regulators,” ING healthcare analyst Diederik Stadig told CNBC, referring to a Trump policy where the price of a drug in the U.S. is set to the lowest price paid by another comparable country.

Meanwhile, China has emerged as a leader in biotech — the innovation engine of pharma. Global pharmaceutical companies are increasingly looking to the country for innovation and to potentially source their next blockbuster drug.

For decades, Europe was the world’s undisputed laboratory. In 1990, nearly half of global research and development took place in Europe, and about a third in the U.S., according to research by ING. Today, the U.S. share of R&D has jumped to 55%, while Europe’s has plummeted to 26%.

For decades, companies have lamented Europe’s fragmented capital markets, single-market adoption on pricing and clinical trials, and uneven reimbursement policies. 

U.S. tariffs and most favored nation drug pricing have “injected urgency into the debate in a way we haven’t really seen before,” said Stadig.

Washington is increasingly viewing biotech and supply chains as a national security issue, emphasizing the importance of medicine supply chains remaining on American soil.

Meanwhile, China has evolved into an innovation leader, scoring major deals with global pharma companies to access the country’s early-stage science. 

“Continued licensing, targeted fundraises, and differentiated science suggest China’s biopharma advantage will likely persist despite rising geopolitical friction,” a January PitchBook report found.

A paper published earlier this year by researchers at Bocconi University found that the U.S. “is consistently more successful than the EU in attracting and retaining R&D activity within its territory, while China emerges as the largest net recipient of foreign R&D worldwide.”

Last week, the U.S. imposed new tariffs on branded drugs of up to 100%. They would only, however, apply to drugmakers that have not yet struck deals with the president to lower drug prices for Americans, meaning it will have a limited impact on many companies. 

“The UK has been the canary in the coal mine,” Stadig noted, citing big pharma’s recent pullbacks from Britain despite its world-class institutions like Oxford and Cambridge. 

Despite grim data on the EU’s competitiveness, there are signs of life. The EU’s recently proposed Biotech Act aims to streamline regulations, fast-track clinical trials, and address the investment gap. Spain has emerged as a surprise success story, becoming an attractive hub for clinical research through targeted government support.

Last year, the bloc proposed the Critical Medicines Act in an attempt to improve the availability, supply and production of critical medicines against the backdrop of shortages during the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical issues. 

Furthermore, U.S. budget cuts to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and stricter visa rules could allow Europe to jump on emerging fields like mRNA research.

“I’m actually bullish on Europe,” Stadig said. The EU has diagnosed the problem and has prioritized speed at the European Medicines Agency, which has long been an issue compared with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and could become a competitive advantage given recent cuts to the FDA.

“Things are happening at the European level,” said Stadig. “It’s the member states… the national governments that haven’t realized the urgency of this.”

“We’re shooting ourselves in the foot in terms of these internal barriers that our national regulation creates.”

Protests around fuel prices in Ireland are entering their fourth day, with three of the country’s main refineries and terminals blockaded, and traffic in Dublin at a standstill.

The demonstrations have been primarily instigated by farmers, agricultural contractors and road haulage operators, who are upset with the government’s response to the spike in fuel prices since the onset of the Iran war.

However, recognized industry bodies, including the Irish Farmers’ Association and the Irish Road Haulage Association, are not involved.

Countries around the world are grappling with higher fuel prices as a result of the Middle East conflict. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Thursday he was “fed up” seeing energy bills in the U.K. fluctuate because of actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Oil prices were off their highs on Friday as shipping flows around the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted.

The standoff in Ireland has seen petrol pumps in forecourts across the country run dry, with demonstrators claiming they will remain in place until they secure a meeting with the government to air their grievances over what they claim is a lack of support from authorities.

The government has asked the country’s army to be on standby to remove blockades at terminals and refineries. Taoiseach  — Irish for leader — Micheál Martin has described the protests as an “act of national sabotage,” adding that he can’t comprehend the logic of blocking access to fuel in the midst of a surge in prices.

The Irish government announced in March a 250-million-euro ($293 million) package of measures to help households and businesses tackle the spike in prices, including a cut in excise duty on both diesel and petrol.

“We will navigate this period of volatility. But, to put it bluntly, nobody knows what the situation will be in a month from now; we must remain flexible in our response,” Ireland’s Finance Minister Simon Harris, said at the time.

Government officials are due to meet with industry bodies on Friday to discuss the crisis, but Defense Minister Helen McEntee has confirmed that those protesting have not been given an invitation.  

In a bid to cope with the fallout of the energy shock, governments around the world have been quick to impose measures from fuel export bans to loosening refining standards. The U.K. government last month introduced rules requiring developers to install heat pumps and solar panels in all new homes across England, while Greece has capped profit margins on fuel and supermarket products for three months.

Europe’s airport industry has warned that jet fuel shortages could hit within three weeks, disrupting summer travel and “significantly” harming the European economy.

ACI Europe, which represents airports across the European Union, said on Thursday that a supply crunch would derail airport operations and air connectivity.

In a letter to the EU Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism Apostolos Tzitzikostas, shared with CNBC, the industry body warned of the “harsh economic impacts” fuel shortages would have on the European economy.

“At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the letter said.

ACI Europe said potential shortages are particularly worrisome ahead of the “peak summer season”, when many EU member states rely on the economic boost from increased air travel. Air connectivity generates 851 billion euros (nearly $1 trillion) in GDP for European economies and supports 14 million jobs, according to the group.

“As a result, it is essential that the EU prioritizes the availability and stable supply of jet fuel as part of its response to the oil and energy crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East,” it added.

The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran, which began on February 28, brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to an effective halt, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel and pushing energy costs higher.

Airlines were immediately impacted by soaring jet fuel prices, up 103% month-on-month as of March, according to the International Air Transport Association.

The price of jet fuel in the U.S. roughly doubled, increasing from $2.50 a gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 a gallon on April 2.

The U.S. reached a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran on Tuesday in exchange for Tehran allowing vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the vital passageway remains effectively closed. Around 20% of the world’s oil passed through the Strait before the war started.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was last up 0.4% to $98.27 per barrel after passing $100 earlier in the session, while Brent crude was nearly flat at $96.02 per barrel.

Airlines are implementing several measures to address rising jet fuel costs. Lufthansa’s CEO Carsten Spohr told employees last week that the German carrier is forming teams to create contingency plans due to the Middle East war. This could include grounding some of its aircraft.

Scandinavian airline SAS is cancelling 1,000 flights in April, while Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said the Irish carrier would have to look at cancelling some flights and reducing capacity over the summer if the fuel shortage continues.

The Trump administration is increasingly on a collision course with the European Union over Big Tech fines.

Google, Apple and Meta are contesting fines from the EU over violations of the bloc’s antitrust and competition laws, which total over 6 billion euros, or $7 billion, since the start of 2024.

They’re an increasing bone of contention, as both companies and the White House say the fines reflect the bloc’s hostility to innovation, while the EU tells CNBC that its tough line is getting companies to make decisions that benefit consumers.

Six fines have been imposed since 2024:

• March 2024: Apple fined €1.84 billion under antitrust rules for abusing its dominant position in the market for the distribution of music streaming apps.
• November 2024: Meta fined €797 million under antitrust rules over practices benefiting Facebook Marketplace.
• September 2025: Google fined €2.9 billion under antitrust rules for anti-competitive practices in its advertising technology business.
• April 2025: Apple fined €500 million for failing to comply with “anti-steering” obligations. Meta fined €200 million under the Digital Market Act for requiring users to consent to sharing their data with the company or pay for an ad-free service.
• December 2025: X fined €120 million under the Digital Services Act for breaching transparency obligations.

“All companies doing business in the EU are accountable to the European people and should respect the rules meant to protect them,” a Commission spokesperson told CNBC, adding that fines would only relate to the conduct of firms’ operations in Europe that breach EU rules.

Donald Trump’s administration takes a different view.

It’s stepped up its criticism of the bloc, accusing it of over-regulating its tech firms and jeopardising Europe’s ability to benefit from the rise of AI.

In February, Trump signed a memorandum stating the U.S. would consider tariffs to “combat digital service taxes (DSTs), fines, practices, and policies that foreign governments levy on American companies.”

Fines against U.S. companies are the biggest source of friction on the economic relationship between the EU and the U.S., Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth Jacob Helberg told journalists last week, Reuters reported.

It’s not a new point of tension; Helberg also said that the EU had fined U.S. tech companies more than $25 billion in the past two decades.

“If the European Union is going to participate in the AI economy…They’re going to need data centers, data and access to the United States AI hardware stack, and you can’t overregulate and move the goal post on regulations and hit companies with huge fines,” U.S. ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder told Ian King on CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on March 27.

When approached for comment on how EU Big Tech fines were impacting U.S.-Europe relations, a U.S. Department of Commerce spokesperson referred CNBC to a November interview with Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Let’s settle the outstanding cases,” he told Bloomberg. “Let’s put them behind us.”

There’s a difference in opinion on the other side of the Atlantic.

“Fines imposed under EU competition law, the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act serve, first as a penalty for breaking EU laws, and second as a deterrent to ensure that those EU laws are respected, both as a deterrent against re-offending for the company in question and to deter breaches by other market operators,” a Commission spokesperson told CNBC.

Europe is treading a line between being reliant on U.S. tech firms for much of its digital infrastructure — though governments are attempting to diversify tech suppliers and develop sovereign alternatives — and ensuring those companies adhere to its rules.

Meta changed its “pay or consent” offer to users of Facebook and Instagram in 2025 after a DMA non-compliance decision imposed a 200-million-euro fine, they said. The company would begin offering the new service to users at the start of 2026, the Commission said in a December statement.

When asked for comment, Meta directed CNBC to comments from Chief Global Affairs Officer Joel Kaplan.

Kaplan said at the time that the EU’s fine was an attempt to “handicap successful American businesses,” adding that it “effectively imposes a multi-billion-dollar tariff on Meta while requiring us to offer an inferior service.”

Because the 6 billion euros in fines are being contested in court, the EU has not collected all of the money from companies in question, but fines are required by law to be covered by provisional payments or financial guarantees.

There are also several ongoing investigations by the European Commission into U.S. Big Tech companies.

In February, the Commission told Meta it intended to impose “interim measures” to stop it from excluding third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp as part of an ongoing investigation into the company.

The EU also opened formal proceedings in March to investigate whether social media platform Snapchat, owned by Snap, is in compliance with the Digital Services Act over online child safety.

The fluctuating price of dated Brent, the global benchmark for real-world barrels of crude, has prompted energy analysts warn to that acute stress in the physical oil market shows little sign of abating amid worries over a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.

As energy market participants continue to monitor shipping disruption through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, an unprecedented gap has emerged between dated Brent and front-month Brent futures, suggesting supplies will remain tight for some time.

The spot price of dated Brent, which refers to physical cargoes that have been assigned delivery dates from 10 days forward to one month ahead, came in at $131.97 per barrel on Thursday afternoon, according to data compiled by Platts.

That’s up over 7% from the previous session but down from a record high of $144.42 on Tuesday, just before the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week truce.

Dated Brent is assessed based on bids, offers and trades in the open physical spot market, which means it reflects the real-world price tag of crude oil.

Brent crude futures for June delivery, meanwhile, were last seen trading 0.6% higher at $96.51 per barrel on Friday morning.

“Dated Brent at $144 is not just a price record. It’s the physical market telling you that real barrels are becoming scarce. The market is pricing in scarcity, not just risk,” Andrejka Bernatova, founder and CEO of Dynamix Corporation III, told CNBC by email.

“Even with the ceasefire bringing the number down, the underlying stress hasn’t gone away, and frankly, I think the market is getting ahead of itself,” Bernatova said.

“The Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely blocked, and this ceasefire is fragile at best. Until those flows are actually moving again, the $144 print is less of a historical anomaly and more of a preview.”

Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Shipping and maritime experts have told CNBC that traffic through the critical energy artery will not normalize anytime soon.

“If refiners delay purchases in anticipation of further price declines while physical flows remain constrained, product tightness could worsen even amid de-escalation,” Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said in a research note published Wednesday.

“The Brent flat price has fallen, but prompt physical differentials are likely to remain sticky, tanker rates stay elevated, and sour crude buyers continue to pay up for security of limited global supply away from the Gulf,” he continued.

“This goes to show that the perceived geopolitical risk can ease faster than operational risk,” Shah said.

Strategists at Morgan Stanley said the Strait of Hormuz disruption has prompted a much more violent shock in physical Brent-linked barrels compared to the main financial contract of Brent futures.

“Dated Brent is the market’s assessment of what a prompt physical seaborne barrel is worth in Northwest Europe. ICE Brent, on the other hand, is a standardized, centrally cleared futures contract whose final cash settlement is linked to the forward Brent cargo market through a defined expiry process,” Martijn Rats, commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note published Tuesday.

“Those two prices are connected, but they do not measure the same exposure in time or at the same point in the chain.”

The market dislocation shows the Brent system identifying where the shock is most acute and immediate, Rats said.

Pavel Molchanov, senior analyst at Raymond James Investment, said this latest episode of supply disruption had caused traditional trading patterns between various grades of crude to break down.

“This speaks to unprecedented stress and uncertainty in the oil market,” Molchanov told CNBC by email.

Among some examples of this, Molchanov said Brent crude futures typically traded $3 to $5 per barrel higher than U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures over the past decade, although WTI briefly surpassed a premium of more than $10 during the Middle East crisis.

European government bonds reversed course on Thursday, moving higher after plunging during the previous session, as a fragile Middle East ceasefire keeps markets on edge.

Bond traders are grappling with unusually high levels of volatility, which is clouding the outlook for interest rate policies at the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

Yields on 10-year Gilts — the benchmark for U.K. government debt — rose more than 6 basis points to 4.775% on Thursday, after tumbling 21 basis points a day earlier. The 2-year Gilt yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.245%, having dropped 25 basis points in the previous session.

German bunds followed a similar pattern. The 10-year Bund yield rose almost 5 basis points to 2.9886%, after falling nearly 17 basis points on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 2-year Bund yields — which shed 28 basis points in the prior session — rebounded 6 basis points to 2.5549%.

Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%.

Markets have whipsawed since hostilities between the U.S. and its allies and Iran began on Feb. 28. Borrowing costs across multiple European economies have touched multi-decade highs in recent weeks, with elevated oil prices driving inflationary fears and complicating how investors assess the future path of interest rates.

OpenAI’s Stargate project in the U.K. is being paused, with the company pointing towards the cost of energy and the country’s regulatory environment.

The U.S. AI startup announced plans for the major infrastructure project in September, saying it would deploy up to 8,000 GPUs in partnership with Nscale and Nvidia. Politico first reported on Wednesday that the project was on hold.

“We continue to explore Stargate U.K. and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment,” an OpenAI spokesperson told CNBC in a statement.

Industrial energy prices in the U.K. are among the highest in the world. Critics of the U.K.’s AI infrastructure buildout previously told CNBC the high cost of energy and delays in accessing the national grid were key stumbling blocks.

Lawmakers in the U.K are also looking to develop new regulations around how AI models use copyrighted work.

Nscale declined to comment when approached by CNBC about the project being paused. Nvidia has been approached for comment.

OpenAI and Nscale are still in discussions about the project in the future, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told CNBC.

The U.K. was set to delay changes to its copyright rules that would’ve made it easier for AI companies to use media content following backlash from the creative sector in the country, the Financial Times reported in March.

Later that month, the government published a report on copyright and AI, which stated that the majority of respondents to its public consultation “rejected the originally preferred proposal in our consultation: a broad exception with opt-out.”

“Many responses were from the creative industries, who were concerned a broad exception would allow generative AI to learn from their works, without compensation, and in direct competition to them,” the report reads.

“We see huge potential for the U.K.’s AI future,” the OpenAI spokesperson added. “London is home to our largest international research hub, and we support the Government’s ambition to be an AI leader.”

“In the meantime, we are investing in talent and expanding our local presence, while also delivering on the commitments under our MOU with the Government to adopt frontier AI in UK public services,” the statement continued.

— CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal also contributed to this report.

U.K. Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper is expected to call for unhindered access through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, countering a push by Iran to control one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

In an annual foreign policy speech, Cooper is expected to say shipping must be toll-free through the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been blocked by Iran since the start of the war.

“The fundamental freedoms of the seas must not be unilaterally withdrawn or sold off to individual bidders. Nor can there be any place for tolls on an international waterway,” Cooper will say at Mansion House in London later this evening, according to advance extracts of her speech.

Iran has said it wants to charge ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with the Financial Times reporting on Wednesday that Tehran is planning to charge shipping firms in cryptocurrency for their oil tankers to pass through the waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas typically passes through the Strait.

Britain’s Cooper is also expected to push for Lebanon to be included in the two-week ceasefire agreed between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday.

“The ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel and Iran is welcome. It is a vital step towards bringing security and stability to the region, and to easing the pressures on the global economy and the cost of living here at home,” Cooper will say.

“There is considerable work to do, and we support the negotiations: they must make progress; there must be no return to conflict; Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire; there must be no further threat from Iran to its neighbors; and crucially the Strait of Hormuz must be fully reopened.”

Cooper is set to underline the economic impact of the Middle East crisis on people in Britain, citing rising mortgage rates, fuel prices and the cost of food.

Her speech comes as U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds talks with several countries in the Gulf region to discuss diplomatic efforts to support and uphold the ceasefire deal.

An unusually powerful El Niño later this year could exacerbate food security fears as disruption caused by the Iran war strains supply for crucial fertilizer products.

Climate scientists warn it appears increasingly likely that a planet-warming El Niño will take shape over the coming months, with U.S. meteorologists estimating a one-in-three chance of a “strong” weather event forming in October to December.

European climate models indicate an even higher probability of a very strong or “super El Niño,” although the so-called spring barrier means that these forecasts can be inaccurate.

El Niño — or “the little boy” in Spanish — is widely recognized as the warming of the sea surface temperature, which occurs naturally every few years. Such an event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

A super El Niño, which doesn’t have an official scientific category, is understood to refer to an exceptionally strong phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal.

Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst, food and farming at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said 2026 was shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks have become a costly reality.

“Food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by climate extremes disrupting production in major growing regions, and by a food system still hooked on fossil fuels and therefore exposed to spikes in gas, fertiliser, transport and packaging costs,” Jaccarini told CNBC by email.

“That is why the prospect of a strong El Niño matters,” he continued. “It can turbocharge weather risks in a climate already destabilised by human emissions, compounding inflation driven by high fossil fuel prices.”

Some commodities are particularly exposed to the weather event, with El Niño typically putting upward pressure on cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar, Jaccarini said. He also cited broader risks for other products linked to the tropics, such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate and soy-fed meat.

Expectations of El Niño’s return follow a multi-year La Niña event, which generally has the effect of lowering global temperatures compared to normal years.

Oil and gas prices and fertilizer costs have skyrocketed due to the Iran war severely disrupting supplies through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Analysis published by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) last month warned that the number of food-insecure people across the globe could reach levels last seen at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

The WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute hunger could jump by 45 million if the Iran war persists beyond June and oil prices stay above $100 per barrel. This prediction would add to the 318 million people across the globe who are already food insecure.

Dawid Heyl, a co-portfolio manager for the global natural resources strategy at Ninety One, said the prospect of an El Niño event poses a risk to global food production, but the extent of this risk depends on when the climate phenomenon develops, how extreme it is and how long it lasts.

“I’ve been saying this to so many colleagues and anyone who would listen, but I wasn’t really concerned about Russia-Ukraine in terms of food inflation,” Heyl told CNBC by video call.

“I am a lot more concerned about [the Iran war] this time around, because of the impact on nitrogen, fertilizer production and availability,” Heyl said.

Asked about the prospect of a powerful El Niño event developing in the wake of the sprawling Middle East crisis, Heyl said: “If you get two negative factors like that combining then it could really be tough going.”

The likes of India, Australia, Brazil and Argentina were all cited as countries that could be significantly exposed to El Niño, Heyl said, albeit for different reasons.

The European Union, meanwhile, said earlier this month that an El Niño event later this year threatens northwestern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan with dry conditions, “posing a significant risk to the main agricultural season.”

For the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit’s Jaccarini, the answer to deepening food security fears lies in recognizing that risks to the global food system are not going away anytime soon.

“With traditional geopolitical partnerships under strain, international collaboration matters more than ever. Reducing food price volatility depends on reaching net zero together,” Jaccarini said.

“Climate finance from wealthy nations to producer countries with low climate readiness helps farmers adapt to climate impacts and protect crops and livelihoods,” he added.

— CNBC’s Chloe Taylor contributed to this report.