The U.S. labor market bounced back in March, with job creation much stronger than expected though the broader picture of a slow-growth labor market held intact.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. February’s number was revised down by 41,000 while January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000, putting the three-month average around 68,000.

With job creation higher, the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%.

As has been the case, health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000. A strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente in February hit the sector. The BLS said ambulatory health care services rose by 54,000, with 35,000 coming from the strike workers returning.

Construction saw an increase of 26,000, while transportation and warehousing posted a gain of 21,000.

On the downside, the federal government saw a loss of 18,000, while financial activities lost 15,000.

Though the unemployment rate posted a decline, the move largely came from a decline of 396,000 in the labor force. The share of working-age Americans in the labor force fell to 61.9%, its lowest since November 2021.

The survey of households, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed 64,000 fewer people holding jobs. An alternative unemployment figure that counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 8%.

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Nonfarm payrolls are expected to bounce back — barely — in March as the bar keeps getting lower for what constitutes a healthy labor market.

The U.S. economy is projected to show job gains of 59,000 for the month, an anemic rate by the standards of previous years this decade but enough to keep the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

If the estimate is reasonably accurate, it actually would represent above-trend job growth for a labor market that has created virtually no jobs over the past year.

Immigration restrictions, shifting demographics and geopolitical uncertainty have left companies eager neither to hire nor fire workers en masse, resulting in a static labor market and a series of ho-hum monthly counts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS will release the number Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, though the stock market will be closed in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

“We have to revise our idea of what a good or bad job number is,” said Guy Berger, chief economist at Homebase, which provides workforce management services for small businesses.

A report like February’s showing job losses “would have been raising alarm bells about the state of the labor market,” he added. “Now we’re like, yeah, that was a very bad report, but it doesn’t freak anybody out about the job market. I didn’t look at that report and say, wow, we’re on the verge of tipping into recession.”

Echoing views expressed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bankers, Berger said he’s more focused on the unemployment rate as a gauge of labor market stability.

In a recent report, the St. Louis Fed updated previous research on the breakeven level for job growth. The bank’s economists now think that number could be as low as 15,000, with a high end of 87,000.

That’s a steep drop from an estimate as recent as April 2025 that showed the breakeven level at 153,000, and an update in August of that year putting the number between 32,000 to 82,000.

In other words, the labor market needs nowhere near the job growth it required previously to keep the population near full employment.

“Things have been slowly getting worse each for the last few years,” Berger said, but added, “There’s no real sign of us tipping into a recession.”

Some economists on Wall Street disagree. Goldman Sachs, Moody’s Analytics and others in recent days have raised their odds of recession in the next 12 months, with a focus on threats from a slowing jobs picture and surging energy costs.

Earlier this week, BLS data showed that the rate of hiring as a share of the workforce fell to 3.1%, its lowest level since the Covid recession in 2020 and, before that, January 2011.

Still, Homebase’s data is consistent with other indicators, including the ADP private payrolls report for March, showing modest gains in payrolls. February’s loss of 92,000 jobs came in part due to a since-resolved strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente that sidelined some 31,000 workers in California and Hawaii.