Mortgage rates last week jumped to the highest level since the end of last year, causing a crash in the growing refinance demand the market had been seeing at the start of this year. That pushed total mortgage application volume down 10.9% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.30% from 6.19%, with points increasing to 0.63 from 0.58, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher, driven by increasing Treasury yields as the conflict in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, along with the risk of a broader inflationary shock. Mortgage rates increased across the board,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist in a release.

Applications to refinance a home loan plunged 19% week-to week but were still 69% higher than the same week one year ago.

“Rates were around 20 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago, and this caused a reversal in refinance activity, particularly for conventional refinance applications, which decreased 27 percent over the week. Government refinances also declined but by 5 percent, as FHA rates have not increased quite as rapidly,” Kan added.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home managed to eke out a 1% gain for the week and were 12% higher than the same week one year ago. The all-important spring housing market, which officially begins at the end of this week, is kicking off with slightly more inventory than last year, and interest rates are still 42 basis points lower than they were a year ago.

Affordability is improving, with prices now dropping in some markets and flat in others compared with last spring.

Mortgage rates moved slightly lower to start this week, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily. While most Federal Reserve watchers do not expect the central bank to cut its interest rate at the open market committee meeting today, there is always a possibility that commentary from the chairman could move bond markets.

“Fed days can still cause volatility in rates, for better or worse. In [Wednesday’s] case, any impact from the Fed should be smaller than it otherwise would have been due to the market’s preoccupation with geopolitical influences,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday that interest rate cuts aren’t appropriate until there’s more evidence that inflation is on its way down.

With recent indicators showing that inflation well off its highs but still above the Fed’s 2% target, Goolsbee noted that policymakers “have been burned by assuming transitory inflation” in the past and shouldn’t make the same mistake again.

“I feel that front-loading too many rate cuts is not prudent in that circumstance,” he said in remarks before the National Association for Business Economics at its annual gathering in Washington, D.C. “People express that prices are one of their most pressing concerns. Let’s pay attention. Before we cut rates more to stimulate the economy, let’s be sure inflation is heading back to 2%.”

The most recent inflation data, for December, showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, running at 3%, as measured by the consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary forecasting gauge. That was up 0.2 percentage point from November and came somewhat due to tariffs, which are viewed as temporary, but also from underlying pressures in the service sector and areas not directly impacted by the duties.

Specifically, Goolsbee said stubbornly high housing inflation isn’t tariff driven, emphasizing the need for the Fed to be “vigilant.”

Goolsbee noted that a 3% inflation rate “is not good enough — and it’s not what we promised when the Federal Reserve committed to the 2% target. Stalling out at 3% is not a safe place to be for a myriad of reasons we know all too well.” He has said previously that he thinks the Fed will be able to cut later in the year.

The remarks come with markets expecting the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Goolsbee is a voter this year, to stay on hold until at least June and probably July. Futures traders are placing about a 50-50 chance of a cut in June and about a 71% probability of a July cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. The Fed enacted three quarter-percentage-point cuts in the latter part of 2025.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been an advocate for lower rates, took a more measured approach Monday while also speaking to the NABE conference.

Though Waller said he thinks policymakers should “look through” tariff impacts, he said recent data show the labor market may be in better shape than previously indicated, mitigating the need for further cuts. If the jobs picture continues to improve, that would further lessen the case for cuts, though he said he isn’t convinced that the January nonfarm payrolls data wasn’t “more noise than signal.”

Tuesday will be an active day Fed speakers, with Governor Lisa Cook also due to present to the NABE later in the morning.

Hyperscalers are significantly ramping up their AI capex spending — and increasingly using credit markets to fund it.

But investors say this shift is challenging mega-cap tech giants’ so-called ‘fortress balance sheet’ status, and rips up what they call the “unspoken contract” that kept speculative AI spending largely separate from debt markets.

After Amazon, Meta and Google-owner Alphabet all unveiled sizable increases in their full-year capex spending plans during earnings season, UBS data indicates that aggregated capex spend among AI hyperscalers could top $770 billion in 2026 — some 23% higher than previously expected.

In a Feb. 18 note, UBS credit strategists said such increases imply a $40 billion to $50 billion ramp-up in borrowing from hyperscalers, pushing public market debt issuance to between $230 to $240 billion this year.

Al Cattermole, fixed income portfolio manager at Mirabaud Asset Management, said this tilt toward the bond market is dramatically shifting the dynamic between hyperscalers and investors.

“For years, we’ve been told this AI spend would be funded by generated cash flow — that it is equity risk, it is speculative, and not to worry about it from a credit point of view,” Cattermole told CNBC in an interview.

“There now seems to be a change in the unspoken contract that while we would continue to lend to these businesses, really AI capex was still going to be equity or cash funded….By bringing capex spend into the debt markets, you now have the question of credit worthiness.”

Last September, Oracle tapped the bond market for some $18 billion in one of the biggest debt issuances on record. Others have rapidly followed, with Google-owner Alphabet recently issuing some $20 billion in debt, including a rare 100-year sterling-denominated bond.

“What if, in three years, these Nvidia chips get outstripped by a Chinese competitor, and I’m lending for five or eight years, and in year three, my data center is obsolete?” he said.