National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett speaks to the press outside the White House, in Washington, Feb. 11, 2026.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s top economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Thursday that getting even one oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz would provide a “huge chunk of what’s missing” amid a global supply crunch caused by the U.S.-Israel war in Iran.
Hassett, director of White House’s National Economic Council, made the claim as traffic through the key shipping route remains tightly throttled, despite the U.S. and Iran reaching a fragile ceasefire that ostensibly involves reopening the strait.
More than 100 commercial vessels, mostly oil tankers, were passing through the strait each day before the war started on Feb. 28, according to data from Kpler.
Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst, said just two tankers — one of which was Iranian — and a handful of bulk carriers have transited the waterway since the two-week ceasefire was announced Tuesday evening.
That’s within the meager range of traffic that has been seen throughout the war, providing Iran with a key source of leverage even as it’s weathered punishing military strikes from the U.S. and Israel.
The blockage of the strait, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, sent global energy prices soaring. Oil prices fell sharply following news of the ceasefire, but jumped back above $100 per barrel on Thursday.
“We have an agreement [with] the Iranians that they’re going to open the Strait of Hormuz, and that we’ll have a ceasefire,” Hassett said in a Fox Business interview Thursday morning.
“They have said that they’re going to start letting many more ships through,” Hassett said of Iran.
“We’ll watch as the day progresses, whether that’s true or not, being mindful of the fact that if you get one of those big tankers through, that’s 2 million barrels. So that’s a huge chunk of what’s missing,” he said.
Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil were transiting the strait per day. And since the war began Feb. 28, hundreds of millions of barrels have been taken off the market due to an inability to be shipped out of the Persian Gulf, said Amena Bakr, an expert on the Middle East and OPEC at Kpler.
Hassett said, “In the end, I think we’re not going to have complete clarity until we finish the negotiations” set to begin this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan.
“We fully expect that we’ve got so much on the table that we’re willing to give to help the Iranian people, if they just act normally, that hopefully there will be cooler heads and sounder minds at the Iranian side, and that will come to a final agreement this weekend,” he said.
Hassett’s comments came one day after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said “what has been agreed to, what’s been stated is, the strait is open.”
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said later Wednesday that the U.S. has “seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today.”
“I will reiterate the president’s expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely” amid the ceasefire, Leavitt said. She denied reporting from Iranian state news that oil tanker traffic had been halted following Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
Trump announced the two-week ceasefire Tuesday evening, shortly before his deadline for Iran to either make a deal or face the devastation of its “whole civilization.”
The temporary ceasefire is “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
But experts and maritime industry leaders say the strait traffic has not picked up since the ceasefire took effect.
“Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said Thursday.
Ships passing through the strait must obtain permission from Iran, which is reportedly planning to impose new tolls on the transiting vessels, Al Jaber said.
“That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” he said.
Iran on Wednesday accused the U.S. of breaching the ceasefire by violating parts of Tehran’s 10-point proposal for a temporary pause in hostilities.
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Garrett Mauch spreads manure as fertilizer on fields at his family’s farm in Lamar, Colorado, on January 21, 2026.
RJ Sangosti | The Denver Post Via Getty Images | Denver Post | Getty Images
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown caused by the war in Iran is jacking up fertilizer prices, hitting farmers in their pocketbooks and threatening to raise food prices.
Now, Democrats trying to win the U.S. midterm elections in November see another new opportunity to pound the affordability crisis and turn the tide after years of losses in the states that produce crops and livestock.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for fertilizer, including about 50% of global nitrogen-rich urea fertilizers, according to the Fertilizer Institute, the industry’s trade association. The strait has been effectively impassable since President Donald Trump launched the assault, which is now in its third week with no end in sight.
The closure has spiked fertilizer prices just before planting season, potentially scrambling decision-making for farmers across the U.S. And it comes on top of already low commodity prices that have lingered for years and eaten into farmers’ margins.
“We’re in uncharted territory,” Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer who sits on the board of the National Corn Growers Association, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s like a code red.”
Frostic said he purchased nitrogen fertilizer, critical for corn crops, in January for around $350 per ton. That same product, he said, is now closing in on $600 per ton.
The murky farm outlook also comes eight months before the midterm elections that could cost Trump control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Democrats, who are trying to win competitive seats in farm-heavy states such as Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska, are jumping on the high fertilizer prices as a new example of the affordability issue that continues to haunt Trump and Republicans.
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“There are tons of people just like me in our district who are like, I don’t get it. I don’t understand. It was already hard, and now they’re making it harder, and nobody knows why,” said Jake Johnson, a public school teacher who is running for Congress in Minnesota’s first District against incumbent Republican Rep. Brad Finstad.
“Our number one job as a campaign and what we want to talk about to every single person we talk to is we need ways to make things cheaper,” Johnson said.
The rural entreaties from Democrats come after years of bleeding support in the country’s rural, agrarian states in the middle of the country. Trump in 2024 won nearly every state in the Midwest, with exceptions in Minnesota and Illinois. He also dominated the county-by-county contest, according to the Center for Politics, winning 2,660 counties compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 451, which were centered in the most populated parts of the U.S.
Democrats want to win rural America
Turning the tide in rural America has been a longtime goal for Democrats, but has often proved elusive. In Iowa in 2018, Democrats won 3 out of the 4 congressional seats in the state. Now, Republicans control all four. But with Trump’s economic approval plummeting and Democrats leading in the generic ballot, Democrats have high hopes this year.
“A vote for me is a vote to end tariffs, and it’s a vote to end the war,” he said. “We do have to start by undoing the obvious damage that the status quo has foisted upon us.”
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump takes the stage during his Iowa caucus night watch party in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., January 15, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Republicans, meanwhile, are scrambling to push even more aid to farmers just months after last year’s infusion. An additional farmer bailout, estimated at around $15 billion, was being discussed before the war broke out to address low crop prices — and lawmakers are now seeking to attach it to a potential Iran supplemental spending bill. The White House is floating a $200 billion spending request for the war.
“Clearly there’s going to be a supplemental for the conflict in Iran,” Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., who leads the Senate Appropriations subcommittee responsible for funding the Agriculture Department, said in an interview.
To get approval for such a package in the Senate, Hoeven said he expects more than war spending will need to be included. He pointed to disaster assistance that Democrats want and aid for farmers as likely add-ons.
On Thursday, more than 50 agriculture trade groups including the Farm Bureau wrote another letter to Trump, asking him to include farm aid in the forthcoming defense package.
“As the Administration considers what needs to be included in a defense supplemental package in the coming weeks, we urge you to include much-needed market relief for America’s farmers,” the letter read.
“The good news is everybody understands what a problem this is for our farmers,” Boozman said in an interview. “Because of that, everything’s on the table. We’re looking at all the options that are available, and hopefully we’ll decide on a plan soon.”
Boozman did not detail what those plans would be. His counterpart in the House, Rep. G.T. Thompson, R-Ark., said Trump is “aggressively” trying to work on getting the Strait of Hormuz back open.
Thompson noted Trump’s efforts to court “other countries in order to make those transport ships and tankers be able to pass safely during that narrow strip.”
He also said any tariffs on fertilizer should be removed ahead of planting season.
“We really shouldn’t have tariffs on fertilizer or any of the components,” he said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox Business Thursday said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins “will likely be making an announcement on fertilizer in the next few days.”
Bessent noted the Trump tariffs largely exempt nitrogen-based fertilizer, which is critical to growing corn.
But opening the strait to allow fertilizer to flow is a tall order for the administration, despite efforts to free trapped cargo ships. And the risks for U.S. farmers and food consumers continue to rise.
“Without strategically prioritizing the delivery of critical farm inputs such as urea, ammonia, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur-based products, the U.S. risks a shortfall in crops,” American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a recent letter to Trump. “Not only is this a threat to our food security — and by extension our national security — such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.”
Agriculture price shocks similar to 2022
Joe Glauber, a former chief economist at the Agriculture Department under the Obama administration and a research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said the shock is similar to when Russia invaded Ukraine — but noted that the accompanying commodity price spikes are now missing.
“We hit record levels in 2022,” Glauber said. “But the other thing that was really high in 2022 were grain prices, and so farmers, even though they were paying really high fertilizer costs, they were able to more or less get by because they were getting good returns from what they were selling.”
Glauber said farmers are right to be worried if they’re only considering their balance sheet — what they grow and what they sell. But he noted the influx in government payments to farmers, like the one being considered now in Congress, has been huge in recent years.
“It’s a different story if you include government payments,” Glauber said. “And there’s just been a ton of government payments.”
Frostic, the Michigan farmer, said he’s aiming for Congress to pass a “consumer choice” bill that would allow drivers to buy ethanol gasoline, known as E15, year-round. Ethanol is typically priced cheaper than regular gasoline, and the bill would potentially lift commodity prices by giving farmers a new market to sell into.
And Frostic, while saying he was grateful for government payments, said the bailout may fall short and that he’d rather make money by selling his crop.
“I would rather sell my products and make money than have the government write me a check to make me whole,” he said. “It distorts the market too much, it can kind of pick winners and losers, and typically when we get checks like that, it’s a pass-through.”
Commercial ships anchor off the coast of the United Arab Emirates due to navigation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Dubai on March 2, 2026.
Stringer | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil supertanker costs in the Middle East climbed to their highest level on record as conflict between the U.S. and Iran disrupts shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Major marine war risk providers have started to scrap cover for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf as the fallout from a sudden security shock hobbles key shipping routes in the region.
The benchmark freight rate for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China — hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day on Monday, data from LSEG showed. That marked an increase of more than 94% from Friday’s close.
Alongside a significant jump in oil and gas prices, the stratospheric rise in the cost of hauling crude oil follows the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend. The expanding conflict has resulted in the effective halt of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important oil choke points, located in the gulf between Oman and Iran.
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be attacked, state media reported. The claim has since been disputed by the U.S. military’s Central Command, CENTCOM, Fox News reported.
“Charterers in the VLCC segment stepped back from the market and avoided securing vessels as multiple incidents have led to increased threat levels around the strait of Hormuz, despite the waterway not being officially closed,” Sheel Bhattacharjee, head of freight pricing in Europe at Argus Media, told CNBC by email.
Oil producers in the Middle East have not yet announced a halt to any production or loading yet, and ports in the UAE, Oman and Kuwait remain operational, Bhattacharjee said, citing market sources.
“But most shipowners were avoiding transits through the strait of Hormuz after insurers cancelled the war risk coverage for vessels in certain areas of the region,” Bhattacharjee said.
It is estimated that roughly one-third of seaborne crude oil trade moves through the strategically important waterway, alongside 19% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows and 14% of global refined products trade, according to Argus Media.
‘A double whammy’
Leading maritime insurers have canceled war risk cover for vessels operating in the Middle East over recent days, amid reports of attacks on multiple ships traversing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Adrian Beciri, CEO of DUCAT Maritime, a Cyprus-based logistics firm specializing in dry bulk, said the knock-on effects of the sprawling Middle East conflict were being felt across the globe.
“We were trying to hire a dry bulk vessel to carry our typical rice food supplies to West Africa, which is around the Cape of Good Hope. You would think that is a million miles away from the conflict zone,” Beciri told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.
“We actually lost the ship. Someone had paid 50% more than they typically would do to carry coal from Indonesia to the west coast of India. Why did that vessel attract such a high rate? The answer is because the vessel owner was uncertain of getting cargo from the Persian Gulf area,” he continued.
“So, the consequences are far and wide, and this is potentially a double whammy. If we’re looking at the Hormuz closing and the Suez effectively being tampered with by the Houthis, this could be quite significant — much like what we saw during the Covid era and the attacks that were happening there.”
Shipping giants divert vessels
Even if oil tankers are only temporarily blocked from the Strait of Hormuz, it can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.
The Strait of Hormuz is also key for global container trade. Ports in this region, such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan, are specialized transshipment hubs that serve as intermediary points in global networks.
Maersk, widely regarded as a barometer of global trade, said on Monday that it would suspend special cargo acceptance in and out of the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia until further notice.
It had previously said all sailings on the Middle East-India to Mediterranean and Middle East-India to east coast U.S. services would be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.
This aerial view shows a cargo ship sailing out of the Panama Canal on the Pacific side in Panama City on October 6, 2025.
Martin Bernetti | Afp | Getty Images
Panama annulled key port contracts held by a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison in its official gazette Monday, transferring interim operations of the ports to Danish shipping giants A.P. Moller-Maersk and Swiss-based Mediterranean Shipping Co.
The notice formalized a Supreme Court ruling last month that the concessions for the Balboa and Cristobal terminals near the Panama Canal, which Panama Port Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison, had held for more than two decades, were unconstitutional.
The Panamanian government on Monday formally assumed control of the port facilities, including cranes, vehicles, computer systems and software under a decree aimed at ensuring uninterrupted operations until a new concession is awarded within 18 months.
Under the interim arrangement, APM Terminals, a unit of Maersk, will operate the Balboa port on the Pacific side of the canal, while MSC’s port operating subsidiary, Terminal Investment, will run the Cristobal port on the Atlantic side.
Shares of CK Hutchison fell 0.9% at the open Tuesday. The stock has climbed over 20% so far this year.
CNBC reached out to CK Hutchison, Panama Ports Company, Maersk and MSC for comment but did not receive a response by publication.
The simmering dispute has become a geopolitical flashpoint between Washington and Beijing, with Panama caught in the crossfire.
After U.S. President Donald Trump alleged last year that China was “running the Panama Canal,” CK Hutchison negotiated a $23 billion deal with a BlackRock-led consortium to sell its non-Chinese port assets. Beijing swiftly intervened, describing the sale as “kowtowing” to American pressure and stalling the transaction.
The Hong Kong conglomerate has pushed back since the ruling last month and initiated arbitration proceedings against Panama. On Feb. 12, CK Hutchison said that “any steps” that Maersk or its subsidiary takes to operate the ports without its agreement will likely “result in legal recourse.”
Beijing also warned that the Central American country will “pay a heavy price both politically and economically” unless it changes course.
The Panama court’s ruling was seen as a major victory for the U.S., given that the White House has made blocking China’s influence over the global trade artery one of its top priorities.
China has reportedly directed state firms to halt talks over new projects in Panama and urged shipping companies to consider rerouting cargo through other ports, Bloomberg reported last week.
