DETROIT — The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.

With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new-vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.

Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.

“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.

The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared with the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.

The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.

Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.

“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 time frame,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.

March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.

Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.

Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, and the inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.

More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.

The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.

“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.

Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.

U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.

“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”

— CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.

Nestle shares rose 3% Thursday after the maker of Nescafé and KitKat reported organic sales growth for the fourth quarter that beat analyst forecasts.

The closely watched organic growth rate came in at 4%, beating a FactSet consensus of 3.55%. For 2026, Nestle said it is targeting organic sales growth of 3% to 4%, along with an improvement in its underlying trading operating profit margin, which stood at 16.1% in 2025.

The Vevey, Switzerland-based company also announced it was planning to sell its remaining ice cream business to Haagen-Dazs owner Froneri, a joint venture by PAI and Nestle. 

In addition, Nestle said it started the formal process to shed its water business earlier in the first quarter, and expects the business, which holds brands such as Henniez and Perrier to be deconsolidated by 2027. 

Shares were last trading up 2.6% and the stock is around 2% so far this year.

The company, under its new leadership duo of CEO Philipp Navratil and Chairman Pablo Isla, a former Inditex executive, have been focusing on streamlining the sprawling consumer giant, after years of operational and share-price underperformance. 

“We are accelerating our strategy. We are focusing our portfolio on four businesses, led by our strongest brands, with prioritized resources and a simplified organization,” Navratil said in a statement.

The CEO later told analysts that the remaining ice cream business was “strong, but small and a distraction” for the company.

Nestle’s portfolio plans were “little changed and undramatic for now,” analysts at Jefferies said. They noted that there had been some anticipation and uncertainty ahead of the earnings report, but the CEO had left most key ambitions unchanged.

UBS wrote in a note that the results reflected early signs of progress while pointing to the strength of confectionery, beverages and petcare as being the biggest drivers of growth in the fourth quarter. 

An infant formula recall, which has also engulfed rival Danone and privately held Lactalis in France, has provided a stumbling block for restoring trust in the business.

Nestle said Thursday its organic growth guidance includes a negative 20 basis point impact from the recall and flagged 1.7 billion Swiss francs in restructuring items, mainly due to the recall. 

A congressional deposition of Leslie Wexner, one of Jeffrey Epstein’s closest known associates and top benefactors, kicked off behind closed doors in Ohio on Wednesday.

The deposition of the 88-year-old retail billionaire is occurring weeks after the Department of Justice released millions of additional Epstein-related files, which have revealed new links between the notorious sex offender and major figures in business and politics.

Wexner, the retired founder of Victoria’s Secret former parent company L Brands, has faced intense scrutiny for years over his personal and financial relationships with Epstein. The latest document dump raises new questions about the extent of that relationship and how long it lasted, despite Wexner’s claim that it was “completely severed” nearly two decades ago.

“I was naïve, foolish, and gullible to put any trust in Jeffrey Epstein,” Wexner said in a statement submitted to the House Oversight Committee ahead of the deposition.

“He was a con man. And while I was conned, I have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide,” Wexner said.

He went on to call Epstein a “master manipulator” who “lived a double life,” insisting that any criminal activities were “most carefully and fully hid from me.”

“Again, to be clear, I never saw or heard about Epstein being in the company of a minor girl,” Wexner said.

Decades earlier, Wexner had given Epstein, a high school math teacher turned well-connected money manager, power of attorney over his finances. Wexner had long been Epstein’s only publicly known client.

“The most important information for us is really about the money,” Rep. Robert Garcia of California, the Oversight Committee’s ranking Democrat, said on CNN earlier Wednesday.

“We know that Wexner was Jeffrey Epstein’s single largest benefactor,” Garcia said. “When you think about Epstein’s wealth, whether it was the plane, the island, the amount of money when had, his homes — much of that came directly from Wexner.”

“We’re not exactly sure why. It’s not clear,” he said. “When you talk to survivors, they’ll all share with you that Wexner was at the center of what Epstein was doing.”

Wexner has not been charged with any crime. After Epstein was arrested on federal sex trafficking charges in July 2019 — and died by suicide in jail a month later — Wexner said he was embarrassed to have been “taken advantage of by someone who is … so depraved.”

The Oversight Committee had subpoenaed Wexner and other Epstein associates in January with bipartisan support.

In his prepared statement before Wednesday’s deposition, Wexner maintained that he “completely and irrevocably cut ties with Epstein nearly twenty years ago when I learned that he was an abuser, a crook, and a liar.”

“And, let me be crystal clear: I never witnessed nor had any knowledge of Epstein’s criminal activity. I was never a participant nor coconspirator in any of Epstein’s illegal activities. To my enormous embarrassment and regret I, like many others, was duped by a world-class con man. I cannot undo that part of my personal history even as I regret ever having met him,” Wexner’s statement said.

Wexner said he hired Epstein as a financial manager years after being introduced to him in the 1980s by insurance giant Aon’s former vice chairman Bob Meister. Wexner also said he consulted about Epstein with Ace Greenberg and Jimmy Cayne, of Epstein’s former employer Bear Stearns, and Elie de Rothschild of the Rothschild family banking dynasty, whom Epstein offered as a reference.

Epstein initially refused to take on Wexner as a client, instead offering occasional financial advice for free. “Little did I realize that, from the very start, Epstein was conniving to gain my trust,” Wexner’s statement read.

Wexner eventually succeeded in formally hiring Epstein. “Because my public company and other duties required my full attention, I provided Epstein with a power of attorney so he could execute transactions quickly, without constantly requiring my signature,” according to Wexner.

“The need for a power of attorney was clear to me, and I provided the same scope of authority to Epstein as I did to his successor, Dennis Hersch,” the statement said. “What I did not anticipate was Epstein misusing the trust I placed in him despite his fiduciary obligation to act in my best interest.”

As for the allegations that Epstein ran a widespread sex trafficking operation that exploited girls and young women, Wexner is adamant that he knew nothing about it.

“He knew that I never would have tolerated his horrible behavior. Not any of it. At no time did I ever witness the side of Epstein’s life for which he is now infamous,” Wexner’s statement said.

“To be clear, never once in 36 years have I been unfaithful to Abigail in any way, shape, or form. Never,” he said referring to his wife. “Any suggestion to the contrary is absolutely and entirely false.”

Wexner also said he never traveled on Epstein’s airplane and disputed the “rumor” that he gave Epstein a townhouse in New York. Epstein “purchased it from me for what I was told was the appraised value,” and Wexner never entered the house afterward, according to the statement.

Wexner admitted visiting Epstein’s private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands, but said he did so only once, when his wife and young children “stopped for a few hours one morning while we were on a cruise on our boat.”

Wexner said he revoked Epstein’s power of attorney in September 2007, months before Epstein pleaded guilty in Florida to a state charge of soliciting a minor for prostitution.

“In light of his eventual guilty plea and deception of our family, we completely severed our relationship with Epstein. Epstein was permanently and irrevocably out of my life,” Wexner wrote.

The Wexner Foundation told CNBC in a statement, “We hold in our hearts the survivors of Epstein’s horrific crimes and pray for their healing and strength.”

Restaurant Brands International on Thursday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped expectations, fueled by strong international growth.

Here’s what the company reported for the period ended Dec. 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: 96 cents adjusted vs. 95 cents expected
• Revenue: $2.47 billion vs. $2.41 billion expected

Restaurant Brands reported fourth-quarter net income attributable to shareholders of $113 million, or 34 cents per share, down from $259 million, or 79 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding transaction costs, restructuring expenses and other items, the company reported adjusted earnings of 96 cents per share.

Net sales rose 7.4% to $2.47 billion. Stripping out currency fluctuations and sales from restaurants it plans to refranchise, Restaurant Brands’ organic revenue ticked up 6.5%.

The company’s same-store sales increased 3.1%, fueled by strong international growth.

Outside of the U.S. and Canada, Restaurant Brands’ same-store sales climbed 6.1%. International Burger King restaurants, which represents the bulk of the segment, saw same-store sales growth of 5.8%.

Analysts were projecting international same-store sales growth of just 3.7%, based on StreetAccount estimates.

And Restaurant Brands plans to keep growing its business abroad. In November, the company announced its plan to form a joint venture for Burger King China to accelerate expansion. Under the terms of the deal, which closed in late January, CPE, a Chinese alternative asset manager, owns roughly 83% of Burger King China. Restaurant Brands has retained a minority stake of about 17%, along with a seat on the board of directors.

Canadian coffee chain Tim Hortons reported same-store sales growth of 2.9%, although Wall Street was projecting an increase of 3.8%, according to StreetAccount. Tim Hortons accounted for 46% of Restaurant Brands’ overall revenue during the quarter.

Burger King reported overall same-store sales growth of 2.7%, topping StreetAccount estimates of 2.4%.

Popeyes was the laggard of Restaurant Brands’ portfolio. Its same-store sales fell 4.8%, a steeper decline than the 2.4% decrease forecast by Wall Street.

But the company has plans to revive the embattled fried chicken chain. In November, Restaurant Brands tapped Burger King veteran Peter Perdue to lead the chain’s U.S. and Canadian business; last month, the company also named Popeyes veteran Matt Rubin as the chain’s latest chief marketing officer.

Restaurant Brands plans to share more of its ideas to grow the business at its investor day in Miami on Feb. 26.