A new poll indicates that the Quebec Liberals are experiencing a bump in support days after naming Charles Milliard as leader, as debate heats up about a possible independence referendum ahead of the fall general election.

Polling by Pallas Data published Wednesday for Qc125 and L’Actualité shows the Parti Québécois leading with 30 per cent support, slightly ahead of the Liberals at 27.

Compared to the company’s previous poll on Jan. 10, the new data represents a four-point drop for the PQ and a three-point rise for the Liberals, who acclaimed Milliard as leader on Feb. 13.

Conducted on Feb. 21-22 among 1,075 adult Quebecers, the poll has a margin of error of three per cent, 19 times out of 20. It also indicates a three-point drop in support for Quebec sovereignty, at 32 per cent.

Get daily National news

Get the day’s top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day.

Milliard said Wednesday that he and his party will be ready to lead the “no” camp ahead of a referendum on Quebec sovereignty, if one takes place. And there will be one by 2030 if the Parti Québécois wins the October election, leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised.

“If by chance there was a bus from the no camp to drive, the only person with a driver’s license to lead that group safely and reliably to its destination is me,” Milliard said. “It’s the Quebec Liberal Party.”

Parti Québécois legislature member Alex Boissonneault downplayed the survey results, noting, “a poll — it’s a snapshot of a precise moment in the political context.”

The results were published after the Parti Québécois on Monday won a fourth consecutive byelection with a convincing win in Chicoutimi, north of Quebec City. The Conservative candidate came in second, the Coalition Avenir Québec in third and the Liberal candidate a distant fourth.

St-Pierre Plamondon said in his post-election remarks that a referendum would not happen immediately, and its timing would depend on the political situation in the United States.

The Pallas poll indicated the Conservative Party of Quebec sat in third place in voting intentions with 16 per cent support, followed by the governing Coalition Avenir Québec at 14 per cent and Québec solidaire with 10 per cent.

&copy 2026 The Canadian Press

The Parti Québécois is looking for its fourth consecutive byelection win today in the riding of Chicoutimi, north of Quebec City.

The riding had been a PQ stronghold before Andrée Laforest captured it twice for the Coalition Avenir Québec, first in 2018 and again in 2022.

Chicoutimi has been vacant since Laforest, a former cabinet minister, left provincial politics in September.

The Parti Québécois is high in the polls ahead of the provincial election in the fall, and leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon promises to hold a sovereignty referendum by 2030 if he’s elected premier.

2:14
CAQ leadership race takes shape as LeBel says she won’t run

Francis Tremblay is attempting to the keep the riding for the CAQ, facing off against Marie-Karlynn Laflamme with the PQ.

Catherine Morissette is running with the Conservative party, Jeanne Palardy is with Québec solidaire, and Tricia Murray is representing the Liberals.

Get breaking National news

For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.

The byelection takes place with a leadership race underway for the CAQ, as Premier François Legault has announced he’s stepping down.

Meanwhile, the Quebec Liberals announced their new leader, Charles Milliard, on Feb. 13.

Polls will be open between 9:30 a.m. and 8 p.m. and early data from the province’s elections office indicated 11.67 per cent of electors had cast advanced ballots.