Ontario’s finance minister is shutting down any talk of extending the province’s $1.4 billion home buyers tax credit, dashing the hopes of the housing development industry, which wants the discount offered “in perpetuity.”

The marquee feature of the 2026 Ontario budget, tabled at Queen’s Park on Thursday, was a publicly-funded tax break for any homebuyer looking to purchase a newly-built house or pre-construction condo.

Along with the federal government, Ontario will waive the full HST for homes under $1 million, giving buyers access to a $130,000 tax break for the next year. The government said the $130,000 discount would also be applied to homes up to $1.5 million.

The government expects the measure will create at least 8,000 homes across, breathing new life into a sector struggling with a slump in sales.

During an interview on Focus Ontario, Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy was asked whether the measure would be extended if the program proves to be successful.

“That is not our intention,” Bethlenfalvy said flatly. “This is a one-year sale to help people with affordability.”

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Even getting to this point has been a challenge.

The original version of the plan, introduced during the fall economic statement, allocated $470 million over three years to give only first-time Ontario homebuyers access to the credit.

Months later, Premier Doug Ford complained the tax break failed to move the needle and began publicly pressuring his finance minister and the federal government to expand the credit to all homebuyers.

Sources told Global News, however, that while the premier wanted the discount to run for a three-year period, the government had concerns that buyers would potentially wait on the sidelines, effectively watering down the policy.

The federal government appeared to be unconvinced as well.

The premier’s office spent weeks negotiating with the federal government and only managed to get Ottawa’s buy-in on Tuesday, roughly 12 hours before Ford announced the expanded tax break.

The 2026 budget, which would have been printed weeks earlier, indicated the province was still working with the federal government “to partner and match Ontario’s action.”

“We would have probably gone alone, sure, but I’m glad they’re there,” Housing Minister Rob Flack said of the federal government contribution.

Still, with the discount coming into effect on April 1, the development industry is already eyeing an extension.

“We have a year to be able to prove that this is going to achieve what we said it will,” said Scott Andison with the Ontario Home Builders Association.

“Hearing the premier talk about that he will never raise a tax, I’m encouraged by the fact that this is a removal that’s going to stay in perpetuity.”

That notion was bluntly rejected by the finance minister.

“They’re absolutely wrong,” Bethlenfalvy said. “This is a one-year thing, we’re very clear about that.”

He added, “This is what the industry has been asking for, this is what we’ve committed to do.”

Peter Bethlenfalvy’s full interview will air on Focus Ontario on Saturday at 5:30 on Global.

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Ontario is investing $1.1 billion more in home health care as it grapples with the reality that it is unlikely to achieve its goal of building 58,000 new long-term care beds by 2028.

The funding boost for home care is part of Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy’s 2026 budget that projects a $13.8 billion deficit for the upcoming fiscal year.

But the budget released Thursday also lays out the stark reality of the province’s ambitious goal to deliver 58,000 new or upgraded nursing home beds within two years.

As of February, the province said about 26,000 nursing home beds are “either open, under construction or approved to start construction.”

Bethlenfalvy was asked if the province could still achieve its goal.

“Well, we’re going to continue to try,” he said. “We’re ambitious here.”

The finance minister said the province is not deterred.

“We’re going keep building, and we’ll get as far as we can because it’s the right thing to do,” he said.

The money toward home care will roll out over the next three years. The province is investing about $6 billion total into home care in the next few years, Bethlenfalvy said.

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“A part of our strategy for health care is to help people where they want to be taken care of,” he said.

“I know many, many people who would prefer to age at home … so we’re transitioning to providing that home care.”

The money will go toward hiring more nurses and personal support workers, with the goal of helping thousands more patients receive medical attention at home and providing some relief on overburdened hospitals and long-term care homes.

The new funds follow calls from some in the long-term care industry who wanted to see investment in home care and supportive housing for seniors as a way to help nursing homes, most of which have wait times of months or years.

AdvantAge Ontario, which represents the vast majority of municipal and non-profit nursing homes in Ontario, made the unusual request for more money for other related sectors and asked the government to invest at least $600 million into home care.

Long-term care operators have said the best way for people to get into care homes now is by going through the hospital first. That allows patients to be designated as in crisis, which gives them higher priority over others seeking a long-term care bed.

Data from the Canadian Institute of Health Information shows more than 50 per cent of long-term care admissions are people coming from a hospital, a 67 per cent jump from pre-pandemic levels.

The situation is particularly problematic in Toronto, which is down about 700 beds due to nursing home closures.

In 2019, the province said it would build 30,000 new long-term care beds within the next decade.

Then COVID-19 hit in early 2020, and the virus ripped through Ontario’s long-term care homes, leaving thousands dead. Some homes were so badly hit they needed help from Canada’s military to operate.

The stalled progress on the Progressive Conservatives’ $6.4-billion long-term care plan leaves seniors in a bad spot, said Liberal interim Leader John Fraser.

It’s a lot of “big talk” from Ford with little action, Fraser said.

“They’re pretending, they are not protecting,” Fraser said, referring to the Ford government’s “protecting Ontario” slogan that it has used since last year’s election win.

“The Conservative government is behind on building the number of long-term care beds it said that it would build and that’s really concerning,” said NDP finance critic Jessica Bell.

“We’ve got an aging population in Ontario, loved ones need a good home for their parents to go into.”

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Four years after the Progressive Conservatives promised to build 1.5 million homes in a decade, Ontario’s battered housing sector is looking at lowering expectations again.

As part of its 2022 re-election campaign, the Ford government promised it would solve Ontario’s housing crisis by ramping up the construction of new homes.

But it’s yet to come close to that target, even after adding in long-term care beds to try and boost the struggling statistics.

Ontario’s 2026 budget presents another round of bleak reading for those hoping the tide will turn. Private sector forecasts have, again, knocked tens of thousands of new units off their projections for the next four years.

Figures included in the fall economic statement released in November 2025 suggested Ontario would see 315,000 new housing starts from 2025 to 2028. That figure has dropped by more than 10 per cent to 276,900 in the latest budget.

“Construction activity softened and is expected to remain subdued in 2026 as private-sector forecasters continue to highlight the negative effects of uncertainty on homebuilding,” the government’s annual blueprint acknowledged.

The reductions have come across the board. Last year, the projections were revised from 71,800 down to 65,000, while 2026 is dropping from 74,800 to 64,800.

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The figures essentially make Ontario’s goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031 impossible.

The government had taken a staggered approach to its annual housing targets, seeking 110,000 new homes initially, a figure it broadly reached.

Those numbers then rose to needing 175,00 new homes from 2026 to 2031 to achieve the goal. The budget shows Ontario will struggle to even get close to that figure. In 2026, the forecasts say the province will manage 64,800 starts, with 70,300 in 2027 and 76,800 in 2028.

If those projections materialize, it would repeat its slump from 2025, when the government approached the end of the year more than 100,000 short of its target.

Increasingly, the government has been working to temper expectations.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy referred last year to the goal of 1.5 million homes as a “soft” target. Housing Minister Rob Flack has said he is targeting the spring to see the impacts of recent policy changes.

Bethlenfalvy continued to distance himself from the goal during the 2026 budget.

“No, no, I’m not focused on the target,” he said when asked if it was still achievable. “I’m focused on what we can do today to make it more affordable for people to own homes.”

While new homebuilding has dropped dramatically, the resale market has also dipped substantially.

“Economic uncertainty has weighed on Ontario’s housing market activity despite easing mortgage rates,” the 2026 budget explained.

Last year, resales dropped 5.6 per cent and the average price fell by 4.4 per cent. That, forecasters believe, is temporary and will begin to reverse this year.

“Looking ahead, home resales are projected to rebound, supported by pent-up demand and economic growth,” the budget says. “Home resales are projected to grow 9.1 per cent in 2026, 5.6 per cent in 2027. 4.2 per cent in 2028 and 4 per cent in 2029.”

The government is hoping to take that improving resale picture and try to apply it to new construction through a billion-dollar-plus policy to try and stimulate the sector.

On the eve of the budget, the province announced it was expanding a plan to waive HST for first-time homebuyers on new projects to include anyone buying a new build.

For one year, anyone in Ontario who buys a new home will have the sales tax waived by both the federal and provincial governments. The measure is expected to cost the treasury $1.4 billion.

Announcing the plan, Premier Doug Ford implored people to take advantage and buy a new home.

“Let’s start selling these homes, let’s start building them,” he said in Mississauga on Wednesday. “And people of Ontario, please go out and purchase a new home.”

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The Ford government will table its budget on Thursday afternoon, a financial blueprint expected to be printed with its fair share of red ink as the finance minister tells Ontarians to prepare for “tougher times” ahead.

The annual financial plan will outline the government’s expectations for economic growth and debt, as well as offer insights into the cost of its policies, the housing market and how Crown corporations like the LCBO are managing.

In a few brief comments as he bought the tie he will wear to present the budget, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy acknowledged his plan comes as people struggle.

“It’s tough times for people,” he said. “People are hurting, the cost of everything is very high. That’s why we’ve been focused on affordability, putting more money back into people’s pockets.”

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Bethlenfalvy’s comments echoed those he made earlier this month in a speech revealing the date of the budget.

“The world has changed, and Ontario must be ready for what change may bring, even if that means being prepared for tougher times,” he said during that event.

“As a government, we cannot eliminate uncertainty, but we can mitigate risks with a responsible, balanced fiscal approach that supports public services and infrastructure while maintaining flexibility.”

In that speech, he twice mentioned delivering government programs “efficiently and sustainably,” words that are sometimes used by politicians to signal belt tightening.

The province’s deficit, in the most recent fiscal update earlier this year, stood at $13.4 billion. Bethlenfalvy has been silent on whether the path to balance remains the same as his plan in last year’s budget to get into the black in 2027-28.

As it normally does in the run-up to the budget, the government has already pre-announced several major policies.

A one-year cut to the sales tax on all new homes was unveiled Wednesday, while a cap on the resale price of tickets to concerts and sports games will also be included in the document.

There’s also going to be $325 million for primary care in a budget that will be passed through legislation that also clamps down on transparency rules.

The budget will be tabled in the house around 4 p.m.

— with files from The Canadian Press

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The Ford government will table its annual budget at the end of March, a financial document the premier has promised will not feature cuts.

During an appearance at the Empire Club in Toronto, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy revealed he would publish the budget on Thursday, March 26.

The budget confirms the government’s spending plans for the year ahead, along with economic indicators ranging from growth to new housing or spending on vices like alcohol.

Bethlenfalvy has recently vocally complained about how much money Ontario is pouring into the health-care sector, the single largest line in its operating plan, calling it “unsustainable” at an event in Mississauga.

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“We’re in unprecedented territory in terms of the concerns of people. People are scared, they’re worried, they are concerned,” Bethlenfalvy previously said of the current geopolitical and economic climate fuelled, in part, by U.S. President Donald Trump.

At the same time, the finance minister warned that the province was facing a “big headwind, on top of the uncertainty” that threatens to squeeze Ontario even further.

“The economic environment is slowing down, there’s just no question,” the minister said. “We’re growing at the slowest rate we’ve grown post-COVID.”

Ford, however, promised that those pressures wouldn’t result in spending cuts when the budget is unveiled in a few weeks.

“I’ll tell you right now: no, there won’t be,” he said Tuesday when asked about cuts.

“My finance minister is the best finance minister I’ve ever seen. He’s a proven fiscal manager with taxpayers’ money.”

Ford acknowledged that the growth in health-care spending was on his mind, but said he didn’t plan to cut back.

“And yes, when you see the amount that we’re investing into health care, it’s concerning,” he added. “He’s doing his job. But we’re going to continue to invest, continue to increase the funding.”

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Ontario’s financial watchdog says the province is not currently on a path to balance as spending ticks up and revenue from taxation begins to fall in the face of a cost-of-living crisis.

The Financial Accountability Officer of Ontario found that the provincial government’s budget deficit will increase to $11.1 billion in the 2025-26 year, an increase from the previous year.

The annual deficit will improve to $11.18 billion in the 2026-27 year and slowly improve. While the picture will get better, the FAO found there will still be a deficit of $6.3 billion for the 2029-30 year.

Part of the issue, the watchdog suggests, is that the province’s revenue will fall far below previous years.

The average increase in revenue over the past five years has been 7.6 per cent, according to the FAO. Over the next half-decade, that will drop to an average increase of 2.6 per cent.

“The slowdown in revenue growth reflects the FAO’s expected moderation in economic activity compared to the previous five years,” the report read.

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“Revenue growth over the outlook is also constrained by declines in interest and investment income and international student tuition revenue in the colleges sector.”

2:25
Ontario deficit to explode next year, budget watchdog projects

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released figures Tuesday projecting the 2025-26 deficit will be $13.4 billion, higher than the FAO’s suggestion.

He refused to “speculate” on the figures in the upcoming budget when asked if he was still confident Ontario was on a path to balance.

“Ontario continues to navigate a period of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty,” he told reporters. “And in spite of this uncertainty, Ontario’s economy proved to be resilient and continued to grow in 2025.”

The FAO’s report projects employment will increase, with job losses in tariff-hit industries offset by other gains.

“Annual employment growth is projected to slow to 0.3 per cent in 2026 and then improve to 0.9 per cent in 2027 as Ontario’s labour market adjusts to a new global trade environment,” the report said.

“The annual unemployment rate is projected to improve to 7.6 per cent in 2026 and continue to trend down over the remainder of the outlook.”

Ontario NDP MPP Jessica Bell said the government couldn’t hide from the overall unemployment numbers.

“No amount of spin from Minister Bethlenfalvy can hide these staggering unemployment numbers and a record-high provincial debt,” she said in a statement.

“We need a plan that brings significant investments into infrastructure and public services — from schools to hospitals — to strengthen Ontario’s economy and create good jobs.”

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