Oil prices hovered near six-month highs on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that “really bad things” will happen if there was no deal over its nuclear program.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with April delivery traded 0.2% lower at $71.53 per barrel at around 9:24 a.m. London time (4:24 a.m. ET), erasing earlier gains, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery stood 0.2% lower at $66.30.

Both contracts notched their highest settle in six months in the previous session as energy market participants continue to monitor supply risks in the oil-rich Middle East.

The U.S. and Iran have held talks in Switzerland this week to try to resolve a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Initial reports of progress, however, gave way to accusations from Washington that Iran had failed to address core U.S. demands.

Speaking at the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington on Thursday, the U.S. president said “bad things will happen” if Tehran doesn’t agree to a deal over its nuclear program.

Trump added that the world will likely find out over the next 10 days whether the U.S. will reach a deal with Iran or take military action. He later told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wanted an agreement within “10 to 15 days.”

His comments come after a significant buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East and amid reports the White House is considering fresh military action against Tehran as soon as this weekend.

Trump said Iran’s nuclear potential had been “totally decimated” by U.S. strikes on its facilities in June last year, before adding “we may have to take it a step further or we may not,” without providing further details.

Iran reportedly said in a letter to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday that Tehran will respond “decisively” if subjected to military aggression.

The Islamic Republic has conducted military drills in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz in recent days, as well as joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman, also known as the Sea of Oman.

“Everything is in place, or will be by Saturday night, for strikes to commence and so the window opens then,” Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Friday.

“Doesn’t mean that’s going to happen immediately. The president did indicate that he is waiting to hear from Iran whether they are prepared to make concessions on their nuclear program that he’s insisting on,” Shapiro said.

“I think it’s unlikely. We have never seen Iran open to those types of concessions, so I think it is unlikely they will agree to those, which means that in the days coming, the president will have to make that decision on military strikes,” he added.

The Trump administration has said it still hopes to reach a diplomatic resolution over Tehran’s nuclear program, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that it would be “very wise” for Iran to make a deal.

Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that, while the oil market is “very well supplied” on a global basis, there are three factors propping up prices.

“Worries about Iran, clearly. Also, an unusually large amount of buying by China, simply for stockpiling purposes. It makes you wonder what they are going to do with all these inventories and then also we have very high freight rates,” Rats told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Friday.

Iran partially closed the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, state media reported, citing “security precautions” as Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards conduct military drills in the waterway.

It comes as the U.S. and Iran hold talks in the Swiss city of Geneva, seeking to resolve an ongoing dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program.

It marks the first time Iran has shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a major international waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the globe, since U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with military action in January.

Located in the Gulf between Oman and Iran, the strait is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

About 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, accounting for roughly 31% of global seaborne crude flows, data provided by market intelligence firm Kpler showed.

Tuesday’s temporary closure of the waterway was aimed at ensuring shipping safety as part of the Revolutionary Guards’ “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz” drill. The exercise is designed to improve Iran’s operational readiness and bolster its deterrence, among other objectives.

Iran and the U.S. reached an understanding of the “guiding principles” during the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters after they concluded, Reuters reported.

The progress does not mean an agreement will be reached soon and more work still needs to be done, he added.

Energy market participants had been closely watching the outcome of the U.S.-Iran talks, particularly as both sides have increased their military presence in the region.

Oil prices were last seen trading lower, erasing earlier gains. International benchmark Brent crude futures with April delivery fell 1.8% to $67.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery stood 0.4% lower at $62.65

Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, which represents global shipowners, said the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz was likely to cause “minor nuisance and delays” to inbound shipping headed for the Persian Gulf — but no major disruptions.

“The exercise establishes a live firing exercise area overlapping the inbound part of Strait of Hormuz’s Traffic Separation Scheme, and requests that shipping keeps clear of the area for the duration of a few hours,” Larsen said.

“Given the level of tension in the area, it is expected that commercial shipping will comply with the Iranian request to keep clear of the exercise area,” he added.

— CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco & Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.

Cuba’s communist-run government is facing its biggest test since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ratcheted up the pressure on the Caribbean island since the Jan. 3, military operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a long-time ally of Cuba’s government. Cuba said 32 of its citizens were killed in the attack.

Trump has since effectively cut Cuba off from Venezuelan oil, called its government “an unusual and extraordinary threat” and pledged to impose tariffs on any country that supplies it with oil.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the move and said: “Surrender is not an option.” He’s since said the government is prepared to hold talks with Washington, albeit “without pressure or preconditions.”

The country has warned that international airlines would no longer be able refuel in the country due to fuel shortages. Gripped by a worsening economic crisis, Cuba’s government recently adopted rationing measures to protect essential services and ration fuel supplies for key sectors.

The plan reportedly includes restrictions on fuel sales, the closure of some tourist establishments, shortening school days and a shorter working week at state-owned companies to four days, from Monday to Thursday.

“The current situation in Cuba is as serious as it has been since the 1990s, when Cuba suddenly had to survive without the support of the Eastern Bloc,” Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Studies at the U.K.’s University of Nottingham, told CNBC by email.

Trump’s tariff threats have created a deterrent for many nations, Kumaraswami said.

Mexico has sent humanitarian aid but suspended oil shipments, as it sought to preserve its relationship with Havana while avoiding Trump’s tariffs.

Kumaraswami said there was “of course frustration with the difficulties of daily life,” but that “many Cubans are resolved to resist threats to their national sovereignty and a new wave of patriotism has emerged.”

Air Canada subsequently has canceled all flights to Cuba amid the fuel shortage, though the airline said Monday that it would bring some 3,000 customers already in the country home over the coming days.

Tourism is a significant source of revenue for Cuba’s cash-strapped government and the country is a popular winter vacation destination for Canadian tourists.

Unlike in previous crises, Cuba’s regime lacks foreign partners that can step in to help, according to Robert Munks, head of Americas research at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

“Raising the stakes, the US has also limited Cuba’s access to hard currency and pressured Nicaragua to end visa-free travel for Cubans,” Munks told CNBC by email.

The government’s pledge to increase the use of limited renewable energy sources is likely “too little, too late,” Munks said. He added that outbreaks of civil unrest were possible, given that the island’s domestic energy production is far short of what it needs to keep the lights on.

“An accelerating collapse of basic services will put the regime under extreme pressure to find a negotiated solution,” Munks said.

He added that “the odds are shortening” on Díaz-Canel being forced from power in the months ahead in a Maduro-style managed transition, but Munks said it was more likely that “the regime will try to muddle through” until the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Cuba’s dwindling oil supplies prompted the United Nations to warn of a possible humanitarian “collapse” last week.

“The Secretary-General is extremely concerned about the humanitarian situation in Cuba, which will worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil needs go unmet,” said UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said Tuesday that Beijing “stands firmly against the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban people of their right to subsistence and development.” They added that China would, “as always,” seek to provide assistance to Cuba.

Russia, meanwhile, has described Havana’s fuel situation as “truly critical” and said U.S. attempts to further pressure the country were causing numerous problems.

“The Cuban government is not going to submit,” Yaffe said. “The fact is, [the U.S. is] going to keep squeezing and the Cubans are going to keep resisting and there’s going to be a lot of unnecessary suffering.”

She added: “I’m a historian and it’s very vainglorious for historians to try and predict the future but we can look at trends — and I can guarantee you that we were here before in the early 1990s where nobody thought Cuba would pull together and pull through — and they did.”

The prospect of a U.S. attack on Iran has roiled oil prices this year, but analysts tell CNBC a strike would require more military commitment and be more complicated, than the U.S. is prepared for.

Tensions are high, and despite talks last week in Oman, both sides remain at an impasse. U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure on the Iranian regime escalated after a brutal crackdown on anti-government protestors across the country last month.

Trump said this week he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, even as Washington and Tehran prepare to resume talks. On Tuesday, he threatened Iran with “something very tough,” if it does not agree to Washington’s demands, which range from halting the country’s nuclear enrichment to cutting Tehran’s ballistic missile program.

The U.S. deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Middle East in January. This brought the number of missile destroyers in the region to six, but, analysts say, this still wouldn’t be enough to topple the regime. Following through on his “something tough” threat would mean a prolonged conflict in a region Trump is wary of.

“U.S. forces in the region are not adequate to support a significant long-term military operation in Iran which would be necessary to achieve any major military objective,” Alireza Ahmadi, executive fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told CNBC.

Trump has also dialed up his pressure on the Islamic Republic, applying financial pressure to an economy already crippled by sanctions. Just last month, he vowed to impose tariffs on any country that acquires any goods or services from Iran.

But it is unclear what could come next. “President Trump is notoriously unpredictable,” Ali Vaez, director of Iran Project at Crisis Group, told CNBC but added Trump is aware “the Iran problem set does not lend itself to clean and easy military options.”

The White House claimed after strikes on three main nuclear sites last year that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated.” Iran moved to quickly repair the damage to ballistic missile sites but according to analysis from the New York Times, has made “limited fixes” to the major nuclear sites hit by the United States.

Iran has long claimed it does not have any plans to develop nuclear weapons. As talks restart between Washington and Tehran, Iran has offered to cap its enrichment at low levels. The U.S. has opposed the Iranians enriching any uranium since the nuclear deal collapsed in 2018.

While the U.S. has vowed to attack Iran if it resumes its nuclear and missile programs, it is unclear whether these sites would again be primed for attack. “Both options are likely to lead to a disproportionate Iranian retaliation, which could then turn the confrontation into a regional conflagration,” Vaez said.

British oil giant BP on Tuesday posted fourth-quarter profit in line with expectations and suspended share buybacks, seeking to shore up its balance sheet as lower crude prices take their toll.

The London-listed energy firm reported underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $1.54 billion for the final three months of 2025. That matched analyst expectations of $1.54 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus.

BP’s full-year 2025 net profit came in at $7.49 billion, missing analyst expectations of $7.58 billion. That’s down from nearly $9 billion in 2024.

BP said the board decided to suspend the share buyback and fully allocate excess cash “to accelerate strengthening” of its balance sheet. The firm’s previous buyback was $750 million and was announced alongside third-quarter results in November.

For the fourth quarter, the company announced a dividend per ordinary share of 8.320 cents.

“2025 was a year of strong underlying financial results, strong operational performance, and meaningful strategic progress,” Carol Howle, BP interim CEO, said in a statement.

“We have made progress against our four primary targets – growing cash flow and returns, reducing costs, and strengthening the balance sheet – but know there is more work to be done, and we are clear on the urgency to deliver,” she added.

Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill is scheduled to take the reins at BP on April 1, following Murray Auchincloss’ decision to step down late last year.

Shares of BP fell 5.4% during morning deals, slipping toward the bottom of the pan-European Stoxx 600 index.

Some other earnings highlights included:

• BP’s fourth-quarter net debt came in at $22.18 billion, down from around $23 billion in the same period last year.
• Fourth-quarter operating cash flow came in at $7.6 billion, up from $7.43 billion a year ago.
• BP set its 2026 capital expenditure budget at $13 billion to $13.5 billion, reflecting the lower end of its guidance range.

The results come at a tough time for Europe’s oil and gas sector.

Oil prices notched their biggest annual loss since the Covid-19 pandemic last year, partly due to oversupply concerns, ratcheting up the pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to shareholder returns.

BP’s industry rivals Equinor and Shell both reported weaker quarterly earnings last week, citing lower crude prices, among other factors.

Equinor announced it would reduce share buybacks to $1.5 billion this year, down from $5 billion last year, while also trimming investments in its renewables and low-emission energy projects.

Shell, for its part, kept its buybacks steady at $3.5 billion, a move that marked the firm’s 17th consecutive quarter of $3 billion or more in buybacks.