SpaceX merges Elon Musk’s AI firm – will the shares rocket?
Elon Musk says that ‘it is time to go forth, be out there among the stars, expand the scope and scale of human consciousness’.
The Tesla tycoon’s latest deal may inspire investors to follow his call, although the recent failure of the UK space venture Orbex, based in the Orkneys, highlights the hazards of boldly going beyond this planet.
Earlier this month, Musk unveiled a $1.25trillion (£930billion) merger between his rocket company SpaceX and his loss-making start-up xAI, owner of the X social network.
The combined entity – to be called X.AI Holdings – is set to land on the stock market in July in what may be the largest flotation ever. The business may be valued at $1.5 trillion (£910billion).
X.AI aspires to colonise Mars and construct factories on the Moon.
But, more immediately, it hopes to build solar-powered data centres that will orbit in space and provide the computing power required to fuel the growth in artificial intelligence.
Reaching for the stars: Elon Musk says that ‘it is time to go forth and expand the scope and scale of human consciousness’
This latest expansion of the ‘Muskonomy’, as Musk’s empire is known, underlines the pivotal role that space is set to play in the AI arms race.
But it also underlines the importance of space to terrestrial defence, at a time when Nato countries are pledging to boost spending in this area by 5 per cent to $13.4 trillion (£9.9 trillion) by 2035.
Space firms of every type could seize 10 to 20 per cent of this uplift, thanks to surging expenditure on technologies like earth observation which involves the satellite surveillance of infrastructure and troop movements.
For example, the Azalea satellites, operated by UK defence titan BAE, provide ‘intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to enhance the nation’s ability to protect against modern threats’.
The information coming from satellites is now a key defence capability, according to Mark Boggett, chief executive of the Seraphim Space Fund investment trust. He said: ‘Ships and tanks can now be destroyed by drones that cost a few dollars to build. But better technology gives you an advantage over your aggressors.’
About 70 per centof the revenues of the companies in which Seraphim Space invests are derived from defence. These tech stars are switching over their satellites from monitoring projects for insurance and oil firms to the observation of hostile zones on behalf of the US, UK and other Nato states.
Defence is one reason why the S&P Kensho Final Frontiers index, which is made up of space technology companies, has risen by 86 per cent over the past 12 months.
The index’s members include armaments and weapons companies like the US giants Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, but also names like Planet Labs. This business, set up by three ex-Nasa scientists, operates a fleet of image-taking satellites. Its shares are 409 per cent higher than a year ago.
The creation of X.AI has been described as ‘financial engineering’ by sceptics. There are also no details yet as to how Musk plans to raise the vast sums of capital to pay for the assembly and launching of the satellites – he would like to have a constellation of one million satellites.
But it would be short-sighted not to see the enterprise, however far-fetched, as an alert to look beyond planet Earth for the next portfolio opportunities. Here’s how to plan your voyage into space.
Taking off?: A SpaceX rocket during launch
A stake in SpaceX
The planned stock market debut of X.AI should be ‘the healthiest wealth creation event in history’, according to Shaun Maguire of the US venture capital firm Sequoia Capital.
This is presumably because the wellbeing of the company’s workforce will be enhanced by the appreciation in their stock options.
The flotation could also be a massive boost for Musk, SpaceX’s largest shareholder with 43 per cent of the company, in his campaign to outpace the other tech billionaires in the AI arms war.
Boggett said: ‘The combination of the two businesses will enjoy a moat – a competitive advantage. Data centres are voracious users of energy which is costly. But X.AI’s data centres in space will have access to an unlimited source of free energy – from the sun.’ Musk may opt to deploy these data centres only for the use of his own ventures, including Tesla, or give access to his rivals for a fee.
The star funds
Musk’s extraterrestrial ambitions could also be good news for you if you have money in Scottish Mortgage. This £13.38billion investment trust, managed by Baillie Gifford, invested $200m in SpaceX in 2018.
This is now worth $3.3billion. SpaceX is also held by other Baillie Gifford trusts: Baillie Gifford US Growth, Edinburgh Worldwide and Schiehallion.
Despite the promise of X.AI bounty, buying shares in these trusts carries a reasonably large degree of risk right now.
Saba, the hedge fund run by activist investor Boaz Weinstein, still owns 30 per cent of Edinburgh Worldwide, and is making a third attempt to gain control of the trust.
Schiehallion and Scottish Mortgage (where I am an investor) are both a bet on tech innovation of every kind.
Baillie Gifford US Growth backs Amazon, Meta, Nvidia and other Magnificent Seven stocks – Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple – to which you may be already exposed.
Another trust – RIT Capital Partners – also has a tiny slice of SpaceX. But this trust is also for the more adventurous since unquoted companies account for 30 per cent of the portfolio.
Shares in Seraphim Space have leapt by 155 per cent to 146p over the past year, but the trust does not have a stake in SpaceX, choosing to back start-ups and established companies in every aspect of space infrastructure.
The Finnish tactical satellite maker ICEYE is currently the top holding. The firm will be producing satellites for the German government in a joint venture with that country’s armaments leviathan Rheinmetall.
Among Seraphim’s other investments is HawkEYE, the US leader in the collection and analysis of radio frequency (RF) data, a service with several military applications.
AST SpaceMobile is another Seraphim investment. This US satellite designer is assembling a mobile network in space that should boost connectivity in poorly covered remote, rural or urban spots.
This week Seraphim secured finance from its second venture capital fund from the British Business Bank and the National Security Strategic Investment Fund.
If you wish to explore every aspect of space, other options include two exchange traded funds (ETFs): Ark Capital Space and Defence Innovation and VanEck Space Innovators whose ticker symbol (by which it is known on the stock exchange) is Jedi – after the Star Wars warrior order.
In this fund’s portfolio you will find Planet Labs and Rocket Lab, a US spacecraft manufacturer which is seen as a mini-SpaceX.
Defensive strategy
Over the past year, BAE shares are up by 52 per cent, while Babcock has jumped by 118 per cent.
Rheinmetall, which this week won a contract to supply drones, or ‘flying warheads’, to the German army, has risen by 66 per cent.
Mounting geopolitical tensions since the start of this year are a reason to continue to hold these defence names.
But Musk’s new emphasis on space could divert even more defence expenditure towards this area which could provide extra support for their shares.
If you would like a broader spread of defence operators, there are three defence ETFs: Future of Defence, Global X Defence Tech and VanEck Global.
None promises to take you to infinity and beyond. But they can play a vital defensive role in your portfolio at this uneasy time.
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