It might be a busy market for mergers and acquisitions in Canada’s oilpatch later this year, provided the geopolitical mayhem eases enough for buyers and sellers to find common ground on price, says a partner at consulting firm Deloitte.

In a report published Wednesday, Deloitte said deal activity seemed to be on the upswing heading into this year after a decade-long lull. But with the U.S.-Israel war on Iran shaking global oil markets, the outlook now is much more hazy.

“It’s really hard for a deal to get done” with the US$115-a-barrel price West Texas Intermediate was hovering around earlier this week, said Andrew Botterill, partner for energy, resources and industrials at Deloitte Canada. “Buyers and sellers are just too far apart.”

WTI plummeted 17 per cent to trade at about US$96 per barrel in late-morning trading Wednesday after the U.S., Iran and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire, heading off U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to destroy Iranian civilization.

2:39
Business Matters: Global leaders look for new ways to stabilize oil prices

The current crude price is still about 40 per cent higher than where it was trading before the conflict began in late February, spilling over to several countries in the region and choking off 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

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But if the volatility blows over — as futures market trading seems to suggest might happen later this year — Canada’s energy sector would be ripe for an acceleration in merger and acquisition activity.

“People are starting to really come to the recognition that Canada is very investable right now and it’s a place to deploy capital and we should expect to see more deals,” said Botterill.

The oilsands are already dominated by a handful of big players, so there are few opportunities in that space, he said.

But the Montney and Duvernay areas of northeastern B.C. and northwestern Alberta are some of “the world’s highest-quality assets out there” and are likely to see more consolidation. Those rocks are rich in natural gas liquids, whose prices tend to track those of crude oil.

“The repeatability economics are so strong, the technology is so consistent and Canadian producers have just done such a great job at managing costs alongside that and continuing to make large swaths of resource highly profitable,” said Botterill.

2:46
Canada ‘reliable’ and ‘low-risk’ oil exporter, will up production amid energy crisis: Carney

In its latest forecast, Deloitte predicted an average 2026 WTI price of US$85 per barrel, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been driving prices significantly higher than that, but oil traders seem to be betting on a more mellow market in the latter half of this year.

Contracts for delivery in August and beyond have been sinking below US$80 per barrel. For 2027, Deloitte is forecasting a drop in WTI to US$76.50. For 2028, it sees a return to the prewar level of US$67.65.

Meanwhile, the benchmark for Alberta natural gas is forecast to average $2.15 per mmBTU in 2026, climbing to $3.20 in 2028.

A balmy winter in much of Canada coupled with a slower-than-expected ramp-up of the LNG Canada export terminal on the B.C. coast put pressure on the price of the home-heating fuel, Botterill said.

He’s never felt so positively about the prospects for Canada’s liquefied natural gas export ambitions.

The war has knocked out LNG production from Qatar, one of the world’s biggest players, sending Asian and European power prices soaring and highlighting Canada as a relatively stable global supplier.

“These are hard projects to get approved and it’s a lot of money, so I think there’s still a lot of work to get done to move particular projects forward,” Botterill said.

“But at the end of the day, Canada is seen as a real safe place for capital and it’s seen as even more investable now than it was a few years ago. We’re going to be talking about one or two or three more projects off the West Coast over the coming years.”

1:53
Canada’s role in historic emergency oil reserve release

&copy 2026 The Canadian Press

It may cost you a little extra, but Canadians playing Lotto Max will also soon have slightly better odds at winning a prize as new changes roll out later this week.

Starting on Friday, Lotto Max tickets will cost $6 instead of $5, but there will now be four lines of numbers people can win on instead of three. In addition, people will choose their seven numbers from one to 52 instead of 50.

The numbers and cost are not the only things changing, though — the cap on the jackpot is, too, with it being increased to $90 million from the current $80 million.

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The Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation, which runs the game in the province, says Lotto Max will also have new $100,000 “MaxPlus” prizes available, similar to the $1 million MaxMillions. The MaxPlus prizes will be tied to the size of the jackpot.

But while the jackpot is higher and new prizes are available, the odds of you winning vary depending on the prize.

Those hoping for a better chance at the jackpot may be disappointed, as the odds of winning per play are one in 33.4 million, up from the previous one in 33.3 million.

People aiming for a lower amount, though, may be in luck. For example, someone who gets five out of seven numbers matched now has a one in 1,684 chance of winning compared to the previous one in 1,841. In last Friday’s draw under the previous odds, 3,579 people won $110.

The odds for fixed prizes have also increased, with the chances of winning $20 increasing to one in 72, while a free play will be one in seven.

Canadians’ chances of winning any prize overall are improving to one in 5.8.

&copy 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

According to Anne-Marie Lurie, chief economist for the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), a spate of new construction and development in Calgary is leading to lower prices for apartments and condos in the city.

“We’re seeing a lot of rental construction happen across the city,” Lurie said. “You know, a lot (of) new developments.”

With 1,774 units available in March, according to CREB’s latest stats on housing starts, the inventory is just shy of the record high reported during the financial crisis of 2008.

While the supply is up, the cost of purchasing a condo is down according to the latest numbers from the Calgary Real Estate Board.

The average price of $300,300 in March is about nine per cent less than the same month last year.

“In terms of how the market is shifting is we’re really seeing additional supply choice, relative to the demand,” said Lurie. “So softer conditions for sure for that apartment condo style product. That’s something that we’ve been seeing for several months (and it’s) just really persisting into spring.”

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The increased supply and lower prices also mean its a good time to buy a condo, according to Calgary realtor Ariel Buenaventura of ReMax First.

“One hundred per cent. It’s definitely a buyer’s market for condos. I’d say a pretty solid strategy would be to sit and watch the market as it declines in prices, but there comes a point where the property’s price is so attractive that another person’s going to see that and snap it up,” said Buenaventura

“So there’s kind of this balancing act that you have to say, OK, this is probably the bottom. We got to buy this thing or else somebody else will.”

Buenaventura estimates many condos that were on the market for 30 days or less last year are on the market for double or triple that this year before being sold.

The lower cost of purchasing a condo, claims Buenaventura, is also turning many prospective buyers into renters.

“Rental rates right now are falling because there’s so much inventory coming online. There’s a lot of purpose-built rentals,” said Buenaventura.

“Almost every single crane that you see downtown, those are building rentals, there’s office conversions happening, and because of that you’ve got a more affordable rent.”

While overall the supply of condos is up and prices are down in Calgary, CREB claims some areas of the city are also more affected than others.

“City Center hasn’t seen as much of an adjustment as opposed to the northeast,” or the southeast, said Lurie.

“Higher levels of price adjustment is either because there’s a lot of supply in those areas where there’s lots of new construction and a lot of new developments happening — so in the northeast all the way down into that southeast — as opposed to other areas (where) we’re just seeing some modest adjustments, like the northwest, city center and to a lesser extent some of the south” added Lurie.

The buyers market for condos is forecast to continue for the rest of this year and into 2027.

1:56
Opportunities abound for 1st-time homebuyers as housing market softens

&copy 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

If manifesting money were as easy as pressing play, we’d all be millionaires.

But on social media, many Gen Zers are convinced the secret to wealth isn’t hustle culture — it’s a disco beat.

Anita Ward’s 1979 disco hit “Ring My Bell” is having an unexpected second life in 2026, with thousands of users swearing the track doubles as a sonic “money magnet.”

The ubiquitous trend, kicked off by TikTok creator @GoddessInanna15, frames the song as a so-called “Matrix hack,” claiming that looping it daily can attract cash, opportunities, and good fortune.

In one viral video, the vlogger promised to reveal the “real secret sauce” behind the song, saying it works as a “manifestation and reset frequency” — not just because of “hertz,” but thanks to a mix of numerology and what she calls a “feminine receiving portal.”

Followers were encouraged to repeat coded phrases aloud as affirmations while jamming to the song, like “I am wealthy” and “cancel my debt,” to “manifest” financial success.

Cue the testimonials: believers say they’ve scored scratch-offs, surprise cash windfalls, new jobs, and more — often after making the song part of their morning routine, complete with a little dance.

User @hannahphillips.art said she booked three gigs as a working artist after doing a “dance ritual” to the song for three days with the “intention to manifest abundance.”

Another, @lady_shopper99, found her dream wedding dress in a thrift shop while listening to the track during a day out.

The internet, naturally, ate it up: over 5,000 clips using the sound have appeared in recent weeks, and streams of Ward’s hit jumped 277% over the past month, hitting 2.53 million plays in a single week, per Billboard.

Other songs are credited with the “manifestation” trend

And it’s not just one 8-minute funky track from the 70s.

Songs made at the so-called “abundance frequency” include Enya’s ethereal 2001 ballad “May It Be” and Pink Floyd’s 1975 hit “Wish You Were Here,” both favorites among woo-woo enthusiasts.

Fans credit “hertz” frequencies — like 432 Hz or the “love frequency” of 528 Hz — for their magical manifestation results.

“Ring My Bell” was officially recorded at 440 Hz, but many users share 432 Hz versions of it, made to amplify the “abundance” effect.

Some claim that its 100 BPM (beats per minute) rhythm itself boosts dopamine and energy.

Spotify playlists have embraced the trend, too, with playlists of “healing” tracks at 528 Hz or “sleep” ones at 852 Hz, all designed to manipulate mood or intention.

The science is really all in your head

Here’s the reality check: music isn’t magic — but it can mess with your brain in very real ways.

Dr. Patrick K. Porter, founder of BrainTap Technologies, told The Post: “Music activates multiple brain systems simultaneously — emotional centers, memory networks, attention pathways.”

“When rhythm, melody, and personal significance align, the brain recognizes the experience as meaningful.”

Repeated listening, he added, “strengthens neural pathways, especially when combined with emotion or intention,” reinforcing mental states like confidence or motivation — basically, like mental rehearsal or affirmations.

Conditioning plays a role, too: “When a song is consistently paired with a desired emotional state — such as confidence or success — the brain creates an ‘anchor.’”

Over time, he said, just hearing the song can automatically trigger those same positive emotions.

In other words, TikTokkers’ brains start linking that viral disco beat with feeling good, focused, or motivated.

That boost can nudge them to apply for more jobs, stick to a budget, or take other practical steps — which might later feel like the song “manifested” success, when really it just helped them take the first move.

Audio and music industry expert Nikki Camilleri of Mana agreed: “The emotional power of a song is rarely about the song itself.”

“When you hear a song during a significant moment, it gets ‘tagged’ with that emotion.”

Repeated listening strengthens its neural representation, making it easier for your brain to process, which feels good, she noted.

Over time, the track “can function as a conditioned cue,” priming your nervous system to anticipate a target state. “The song itself isn’t magic,” she stressed, but it can “become a shortcut to a target mental state.”

The restaurant business has weathered its fair share of troubles since the pandemic and labour shortages continues to be a main point of concern for the province’s hospitality industry.

“Restaurants are struggling with both input costs going up and of course the affordability crunch that the customers are feeling themselves,” said Mona Pinder, executive director of the Alberta Hospitality Association.

Which makes a new piece of legislation tabled in the Alberta legislature this week feel like another challenge for an already strained industry that relies on people from all walks of life to operate.

Bill 26, or the Immigration Oversight Act, would target employers who want to take advantage of foreign workers.

The bill would mean the creation of a public registry, and require employers and immigration consultation to be licensed.

Joseph Schow, Alberta’s immigration minister, said the bill is about protecting workers who come to the province to earn a living and to accurately address the needs of the current labour market.

“It is clear that in some instances, we have become over-reliant on temporary foreign workers,” Schow said at a news conference Wednesday.

He said the current system favours hiring foreign nationals for some jobs, bypassing young Canadians.

“As a result, some of the jobs that usually would’ve gone to Albertans as entry-level positions are now going to temporary workers.”

Schow said the legislation is about Alberta taking more control over immigration to fill jobs where needed and is “absolutely not” about restricting the number of temporary foreign workers coming to the province.

5:31
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith promises referendum over immigration, Constitution changes

According to provincial statistics there are 271,024 non-permanent residents in Alberta. About 60 per cent of those hold work permits and six per cent hold work and study permits as of Jan. 1.

Those numbers have all decreased compared with the same time last year. The number of non-permanent residents fell by almost 26,000.

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National advocacy group Restaurants Canada said in Alberta, foodservice is a $16-billion industry that employs 155,000 people, including 63,000 youth, who represent more than 40 per cent of workers.

Pinder said restaurants in some rural areas do not have the workforce to run at full capacity, especially with youth workers.

Restaurants Canada agreed, noting youths often have limited schedule availability due to school and other commitments and are concentrated in urban areas close to higher education institutions.

“You can’t operate a kitchen without a trained chef or maintain a 24/7 rest stop if no one is willing to work overnight,” Kelly Higginson, president and CEO of Restaurants Canada, said in a statement.

Restaurants Canada said temporary foreign workers make up three per cent of the foodservice workforce but are critical, particularly for skilled roles like chefs and cooks, for overnight shifts and in rural regions where there are not enough workers.

This is why businesses look to temporary foreign workers, even though that process can be expensive, Pinder said, adding Alberta’s bill duplicates rules already in place at the federal level.

“Alberta is kind of known for looking at red tape reduction,” Pinder said.

“This doesn’t really feel like reducing red tape.”

While the process will effectively duplicate the work already being done by Ottawa, Schow said it’s necessary to prioritize and address Alberta’s unique labour market needs, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.

2:00
Canada’s temporary foreign worker program a ‘breeding ground’ for contemporary slavery: UN report

Government officials said the plan is to publish the registry of employers who are approved to hire foreign workers. The bill will also establish a licensing system for immigration consultants and foreign worker recruiters to crack down on those who take advantage of vulnerable newcomers.

A new system for complaints and enforcement will be handled by Schow’s ministry. It aims to target those who charge money for job offers, misrepresent employment conditions, take illegal pay deductions or keep workers’ documents like passports.

Government officials said the regulatory framework proposed Wednesday is similar to existing legislation in Saskatchewan and British Columbia but will allow for different investigative powers.

Penalties will include fines, suspensions and bans from recruiting or hiring foreign nationals.

The legislation sets maximum fines of up to $1 million for individuals or $1.5 million for corporations. In severe cases, courts can imprison someone who violates the rules for up to a year.

1:46
Alberta push to suspend temporary foreign worker program concerning for food industry

Moshe Lander, an economist with Concordia University, says it is hard to gauge how the new measures would impact the economy, since the province is continuing to develop the bill’s regulations.

“If we’re going to have an economic analysis of what are the benefits and costs and what does this mean, and try and come up with a dollar amount, it’s almost impossible to do when we can’t model what we can’t see,” Lander said.

Cracking down on fraudulent activity and ensuring the protection of workers is important in maintaining the integrity of the TFW program, Restaurants Canada noted.

It and the Alberta Hospitality Association hope to see the provincial government instead scale up programs that have already seen success, like the Alberta Youth Employment Incentive.

The bill is currently tabled before the legislature. Schow said if passed, implementation could be seen as early as 2027.

With files from The Canadian Press

&copy 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

The impact of higher fuel prices due to violence in the Middle East is now starting to show up in more places, including flight bookings.

WestJet will begin charging more for customers to use one of the perks included in their annual rewards membership, due to aviation fuel skyrocketing in price.

Beginning April 8, WestJet said it will introduce a temporary fuel surcharge of $60 on all bookings made with a companion voucher.

The vouchers are part of WestJet’s Mastercard credit card and rewards programs, allowing the account holder who buys a round trip for themself to get a reduced fare for a second guest on the same itinerary.

WestJet said the new $60 fee will be reflected in the “other ATC” (air transportation charges) portion of companion voucher bookings.

The current cost for WestJet members to cash in their round-trip companion vouchers is:

Within Canada or to/from continental U.S.:
UltraBasic, Econo, EconoFlex: $119 (plus taxes, fees, charges and other ATC)
Premium or Premium Flex: $219 (plus taxes, fees, charges and other ATC)

Elsewhere in the world:
UltraBasic, Econo, EconoFlex: $399 (plus taxes, fees, charges and other ATC)
Premium or Premium Flex: $499 (plus taxes, fees, charges and other ATC)

The Calgary-based airline said it will continue to assess the surcharge and adjust as conditions allow.

WestJet did not say how long the temporary fuel surcharge will remain in place.

“Fuel is the largest contributor to airline operating costs, and a temporary surcharge helps us manage the recent surge in fuel prices,” a spokesperson said in a statement to Global News on Friday.

“While airfares can be adjusted and have greater flexibility in pricing, the nature of our companion vouchers does not allow for this same flexibility.”

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In the month since the Israel-United States attack on Iran resulted in the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz ocean passage, experts have warned that an increase in energy costs would be passed on to consumers as major shortages were forecasted.

1:49
Soaring fuel costs impacting package deliveries, food prices in Canada

About one-fifth of the world’s oil supply — 20 million barrels per day — travels through the waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula on its way to the open seas and then to global customers.

With fuel not passing through the strait, crude has now soared to its highest price in years and its derivatives — jet fuel, diesel and gasoline — have also shot up significantly.

The price of heavy fuel oil — used to power container ships and other large vessels — at the world’s top 20 refuelling hubs has nearly doubled since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks in late February, according to figures from data platform Ship & Bunker.

Jet fuel, diesel and gasoline all derive from crude, making them sensitive to any swerve in its price.

But aviation fuel has come under the greatest pressure, according to Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh. Jet kerosene tends to see the lowest inventories because it needs to be stored in specialized tanks, she said.

1:58
Iran war: Rising oil prices put financial pressure on Canadians

Consumers have been feeling the jump in the price of oil and its derivatives at the pumps and on their plane fares for weeks now, with no end in sight.

Airfreight, which has seen demand rise amid the dearth of container ship voyages, is also costing more as aviation fuel prices skyrocket.

“You’re going to start having money tacked on to making any transport movement,” said John Corey, president of the Freight Management Association of Canada.

“Ultimately, that’s going to flow through and the consumer is going to pay for that.”

4:31
Middle East airspace shutdown creates travel chaos

Fuel often marks airlines’ highest cost. Air Canada spent more than $5.1 billion on it in 2024, amounting to 24 per cent of the carrier’s operating costs — its largest expense.

“The recent sharp increase due to the situation in Iran has already made operating flights more expensive. Based on this, it’s likely further pricing adjustments may be needed,” WestJet spokeswoman Julia Kaiser warned in an email in mid-March.

Last month, Air Transat tacked on higher fuel surcharges for flights to Europe while large international airlines Air New Zealand, Australia’s Qantas Airways and Scandinavia’s SAS also announced price hikes abroad.

— With files from The Associated Press and The Canadian Press

&copy 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

Canadians will be checking their bank accounts over the next few weeks hoping for a tax refund, but the spring bump is no longer just a bonus for many — it’s a financial lifeline, data shows.

Canada’s tax filing season is officially underway, with the tax filing deadline set at April 30.

An EQ Bank survey released last week shows more than one-third (36 per cent) of Canadians say they are relying on their tax refund more this year than last year, with the figure jumping to more than four in 10 (42 per cent) among younger Canadians aged 18-34.

Women (41 per cent) are more likely than men (32 per cent) to say they are relying on their refund for expenses.

“Canadians are using their refunds to reduce debt, build savings, and cover essential costs, with very little appetite for discretionary spending, like travel or dining,” said Dan Broten, senior vice-president and head of EQ Bank.

0:52
Tax season is here

The data shows that younger Canadians are more sensitive to the cost of living crisis than the general population, Broten added.

“This is generally a life stage where many are taking on new financial obligations — from housing costs to daycare expenses — often without the same financial cushion as older cohorts,” he said.

“To us, it shows just how much every dollar matters right now,” Borten said.

Younger Canadians are facing an uphill battle when it comes to building wealth, said Justin Leon, financial adviser at Wealthsimple.

“When a once-a-year tax refund becomes the moment you finally catch your breath, that’s a signal that the gap between income and expenses has become structural, not temporary,” Leon said.

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Around 28 per cent of respondents said they used their tax refunds to pay down their debt, with 22 per cent saying they used it to cover weekly expenses. Another 28 per cent said they contributed to a registered savings plan, like an RRSP or a TFSA.

Only nine per cent said they plan to use their tax refund on non-essential purchases such as travel, dining out or entertainment.

“A lot Canadians rely on that tax refund as a way to kind of buoy up their finances and just get a bit more breathing room. The problem is it doesn’t last,” said Stacy Yanchuk Oleksy, CEO of not-for-profit credit counselling agency Money Mentors.

5:33
Time to get ready for 2026 tax season

It’s helpful to think ahead of time how you’re going to spend your tax refund, some financial advisors say.

“There’s no single formula that works for everyone, but a good starting framework is to think in thirds,” Leon said.

He recommends splitting your tax refund into three piles — one for paying down high interest debt, like credit cards, another for an emergency fund, and a third for a longer-term goal like putting it in a TFSA or RRSP.

“The order matters, though — high-interest debt almost always wins first, because the interest you’re paying is likely higher than any return you’d earn investing,” he added.

Oleksy recommends something called the “40-40-20” rule.

“Let’s say your refund is $1,000. We take 40 per cent, so $400, and we put it automatically into savings. You’ve got to pay yourself first. Take another 40 per cent, another $400, and put it onto debt and give yourself a bit of breathing room,” she said.

“And then, because we still have to live, take that last 20 per cent, or $200, and go have fun,” she added.

6:26
Don’t let scammers fool you this tax season

It may seem like a few hundred dollars from your tax fund may not go very far when it comes to building financial stability, but it goes “further than most people think,” Leon said.

“The earlier you start, the more compounding does the heavy lifting for you,” he said.

Financial advisers can often give you advice on how you can invest the money in your TFSA or RRSP, compounding it over time instead of just letting it sit idle.

“To put it concretely, $500 invested today in a diversified portfolio at a modest average return, left alone for 30 years, could grow substantially — without you ever adding another cent. Add regular contributions on top of that, and the picture changes dramatically,” he said.

He also recommends setting up automatic payments, even if it’s one as small as $25 a month.

“When investing happens automatically, you stop seeing it as a decision and it just becomes part of your financial rhythm,” he said.

&copy 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

A day after U.S. President Donald Trump made a televised address to the nation about the war in Iran, the price of oil took another jump with the American benchmark West Texas Crude (WTI) nearing US$114 per barrel.

And with no end to the Middle East conflict in sight, the price of gasoline also continued its recent increase, selling at many Edmonton stations for about $1.74 per litre on Thursday — even higher in Calgary at $1.75 per litre.

Its a tough pill for many Albertans to swallow in such an oil-rich province.

“A buck 74 — crazy price,” said Paul Marsh as he filled up his vehicle in Calgary on Thursday. “I can’t afford to drive every day. I can’t wait to get back on my motorbike because it burns a lot less gas.”

“I do appreciate the supply chain is such that its affects everything from food prices, Amazon, everybody is going to be paying higher prices,” added Mike Shymka. “It’s regrettable for many people who rely on gas. It’s terrible.”

He agrees with recent suggestions that governments should consider providing some relief by cutting gas taxes.

“Economic policy is, during rough recessionary times, the government is to add more to help people and when things are good then, you know, take a little bit more tax,” said Shymka.

1:40
Alberta government taking its time considering relief options amid oil volatility

Asked if and when the provincial government will be offering any relief to Albertans, Finance Minister Nate Horner, on his way into the legislature on Thursday, offered no promises.

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“There’s a lot of days left in the year. I did table a $9.4 billion deficit. And I will also remind people that even if that situation improves, we’ll update you through the quarters,” said Horner.

“We’re still bound by our spending rules within the fiscal framework.”

Alberta’s fuel tax is 13 cents per litre for regular gas, and four cents per litre for marked gasoline and marked diesel which is only available to authorized use is equipment like tractors and generators instead of personal vehicles.

Under Alberta’s gas tax relief program, quarterly reductions to the provincial fuel tax are introduced when WTI averages at least US$80 per barrel over a review period of 20 trading days.

Between $80 and $89.99 per barrel of oil, the province provides tax relief of between 4.5 cents and 9 cents per litre of gas.

When oil hits $90 per barrel the fuel tax is suspended. But when the price falls again to below $80 per barrel, there is no fuel tax relief.

Despite oil selling Thursday for well over $100 per barrel, the provincial finance minister indicated that Albertans will need to wait up to three months for the province to make a decision on whether it will cut fuel taxes.

“So there’s kind of 20 monitoring days, trading days, business days in the middle of the quarter. So for the next quarter it would be from May 18th to June 15th where it would be monitored and then July 1st would be the trigger,” said Horner.

“I think it makes a ton of sense that you have a longer monitoring period because once it does come off at any level it remains off for the next three months. So imagine a situation where July 1 our tax comes off completely — oil can plummet the next day (and) it will still remain off for next three months. So a little bit of delayed gratification there, but I think the rationale is strong.”

Despite Horner’s insistence that the province needs to wait before deciding on a gas tax cut, he supports the idea of the federal government suspending its fuel taxes until the end of the year, as suggested this week by federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Poilievre said Australia cut its excise tax by 26 cents per litre and Spain cut its sales tax by 30 cents per litre, saying he thinks Ottawa should do the same.

0:43
Poilievre calls on Carney to suspend fuel excise tax, clean fuel standard

“Maybe that’s something the feds want to consider,” said Horner.  “The fuel taxes from the feds — I think it’s about 25 cents a liter, about 10 cents in excise, maybe seven in clean fuel and eight in GST. So I think they should look for something that’s long-term as opposed to these ad hoc reactionary changes that everyone’s looking for,” added Horner.

The head of Petroleum Analyis at GasBuddy, Patrick De Haan, expects the price of gas and diesel to continue to increase until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened — through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply flowed before it was shut down during the Iran war.

Diesel, he said, could hit a record-high price within the next few days.

For the supply of oil to be cut off heading into the busy summer driving season is especially problematic, said De Haan, because it could contribute to an even bigger price increase.

And cuts to government gas taxes, he claims, could make it even worse.

“While there have been conversations about gas tax holidays and waivers and temporary temporarily reducing prices, those types of measures, though terrific for the wallet, would likely further imbalance and cause prices to go up, by increasing demand and removing disincentives from Canadians driving,” said De Haan.

“Anything that can push demand up, whether it’s seasonal increases or reduction in taxes are likely problematic that could increase prices even more.”

1:44
Premier Danielle Smith says scrapping the fuel tax wouldn’t fully help with high gas prices

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Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that there will likely be no deal between Alberta and Ottawa by Wednesday’s deadline on several outstanding climate change policies outlined in last year’s memorandum of understanding between the two levels of government.

The MOU, which was signed by Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Nov. 27, set April 1 as the target date for Alberta to agree to a carbon price on emissions.

While the centrepiece of the MOU was an agreement to work towards the construction of a new pipeline to the B.C. coast, it also exempts Alberta from Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations while the two governments work out a new industrial carbon pricing agreement that aims for Alberta to “achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.”

The new clean energy regulations, which are to come into effect in 2035, would set limits on emissions from power generation using fossil fuels, but Alberta has long criticized the regulations because the province’s electricity grid is predominantly powered by natural gas.

Speaking to the media at an appearance in Wakefield, Que. on Tuesday, Carney admitted it’s unlikely the negotiations will meet Wednesday’s deadline.

“Premier Smith and I had with colleagues a very constructive conversation yesterday afternoon, so we’re continuing to move forward. I’d note that we have made a series of progress. We’re continuing to move forward, so there’s a lot of momentum,” said Carney.

“But will we perfectly meet the first? Not necessarily, but are we making progress? We’ll get the right agreement at the right time.”

“It’s very complex, very important set of negotiations. Do I think we’re going to announce an agreement tomorrow? No, I don’t think we’re going to have an agreement tomorrow, but I feel very good about the progress and the state of the discussions,” added Carney.

Carney pointed to an agreement-in-principle between the two governments, announced on March 25, that would commit the province to reducing emissions of methane from the oil and gas section by 75 per cent from 2014 levels by 2035 as an example of the progress he said is being made.

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The two governments have also signed an agreement-in-principle to streamline the environmental impact assessment process by creating a single process for major projects in Alberta, recognizing the province as best suited to lead the assessments for projects within its jurisdiction.

The aim of the new single-track process is to reduce duplication, save time and help approved projects move forward more quickly.

Speaking at an event in Edmonton on Tuesday, Smith appeared to share Carney’s optimism that a deal can be reached.

“We want to move quickly, we want to create the certainty so private capital can come into this market, and that doesn’t get helped with any further delays. So I think we all have a sense of urgency,” said Smith.

“I think that looking at where the world is right now, with Europe talking about suspending their industrial pricing, Americans not having it at all, industry telling us that here are more attractive environments to invest in because they don’t have carbon taxes, I mean, I think all of that has to be brought into context for this,” Smith added.

1:56
Pathways Alliance oilsands group pledges to spend $16.5B on carbon capture project

In addition to an agreement on carbon pricing, the provincial and federal governments are also working to finalize details of The Pathways Project, billed as the world’s largest carbon capture, utilization and storage project to be built in northern Alberta to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands.

The project would capture CO2 from more than 20 oilsands sites and transport it through a 400-plus kilometre pipeline to underground storage facilities in the Cold Lake region.

But according to Smith, the absence of agreement on carbon pricing is also preventing the finalization of the agreement between industry (Oilsands Alliance) and the governments on the carbon capture project.

Smith said Tuesday she was hoping to have the carbon pricing deal complete in the next few days, and that the agreement with the Alliance will in turn be finished before the end of April.

The Oilsands Alliance is made up of five major oil and gas companies and for years has been planning a major carbon capture and storage project.

Carney has said the project is a “necessary condition” of any new bitumen pipeline.

However, First Nations and local land owners are also calling for the project, which they describe as “massive and unprecedented,” to be reviewed under the federal Impact Assessment Act.

According to a new study released by the Pembina Institute, a non-profit industry think tank, there’s a lot riding on negotiations between the two governments to finalize the agreements outlined in the MOU.

“We did the number crunching and we found out there’s $40 billion worth of investments in low-carbon projects in Alberta that are at stake in this MOU,” said Jan Gorski, director of government relations for the Pembina Institute.

“The quicker that we can actually get these policies finalized, the faster we can provide certainty so that these projects can actually move forward.”

With files from The Canadian Press.

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Carney and Smith sign pipeline MOU

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