Nonfarm payrolls are expected to bounce back — barely — in March as the bar keeps getting lower for what constitutes a healthy labor market.

The U.S. economy is projected to show job gains of 59,000 for the month, an anemic rate by the standards of previous years this decade but enough to keep the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

If the estimate is reasonably accurate, it actually would represent above-trend job growth for a labor market that has created virtually no jobs over the past year.

Immigration restrictions, shifting demographics and geopolitical uncertainty have left companies eager neither to hire nor fire workers en masse, resulting in a static labor market and a series of ho-hum monthly counts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS will release the number Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, though the stock market will be closed in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

“We have to revise our idea of what a good or bad job number is,” said Guy Berger, chief economist at Homebase, which provides workforce management services for small businesses.

A report like February’s showing job losses “would have been raising alarm bells about the state of the labor market,” he added. “Now we’re like, yeah, that was a very bad report, but it doesn’t freak anybody out about the job market. I didn’t look at that report and say, wow, we’re on the verge of tipping into recession.”

Echoing views expressed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bankers, Berger said he’s more focused on the unemployment rate as a gauge of labor market stability.

In a recent report, the St. Louis Fed updated previous research on the breakeven level for job growth. The bank’s economists now think that number could be as low as 15,000, with a high end of 87,000.

That’s a steep drop from an estimate as recent as April 2025 that showed the breakeven level at 153,000, and an update in August of that year putting the number between 32,000 to 82,000.

In other words, the labor market needs nowhere near the job growth it required previously to keep the population near full employment.

“Things have been slowly getting worse each for the last few years,” Berger said, but added, “There’s no real sign of us tipping into a recession.”

Some economists on Wall Street disagree. Goldman Sachs, Moody’s Analytics and others in recent days have raised their odds of recession in the next 12 months, with a focus on threats from a slowing jobs picture and surging energy costs.

Earlier this week, BLS data showed that the rate of hiring as a share of the workforce fell to 3.1%, its lowest level since the Covid recession in 2020 and, before that, January 2011.

Still, Homebase’s data is consistent with other indicators, including the ADP private payrolls report for March, showing modest gains in payrolls. February’s loss of 92,000 jobs came in part due to a since-resolved strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente that sidelined some 31,000 workers in California and Hawaii.

Mortgage rates moved even higher again last week, as the war with Iran continues to stoke fears of inflation. As a result, total mortgage application volume fell again, down 10.4% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.57% from 6.43%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.65, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly interest rate moves, dropped 17% for the week and were 33% higher than the same week one year ago. Earlier this year, when rates were lower, refinance demand was more than twice what it was the year before.

“The 30-year mortgage rate, now at 6.57%, reached its highest level since last August and is up half a percentage point from just one month ago,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, in a release. “Refinance application volumes declined sharply again last week, and are down more than 40% compared to last month.”

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 3% for the week and were just 1% higher than the same week one year ago. The spring housing market, traditionally the busiest of the year, is well underway. While it was forecast to be stronger than last year’s, the war is weighing on affordability and stoking fears over the direction of the overall economy.

“Purchase applications for FHA and VA loans continue to hold up better than those for conventional buyers. However, the shocks of the jump in rates and the increase in overall economic uncertainty are likely having an impact on buyer confidence,” said Fratantoni.

Mortgage rates came down pretty sharply to start this week, according to a separate measure from Mortgage News Daily, as markets digested a potential de-escalation in the Iran war. They are, however, still elevated compared with before the war.

“This marks the best 2 days of improvement since the war began, but the caveat is that the larger movements are often seen after rates hit longer-term highs,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.

Nissan Motor plans to introduce a new type of hybrid to the U.S. market that drives like an all-electric vehicle but is powered — not driven — by a traditional gas-powered engine. 

The new Nissan “e-Power” is called a series hybrid. It uses the engine as a generator to power the vehicle’s electric motors that then propel the vehicle. It operates like emerging extended-range electric vehicles, or EREVs, but has a smaller battery and doesn’t require a plug. 

It’s also different from a traditional hybrid, such as the Toyota Prius, because the gas engine in those vehicles is used to propel the vehicle. The series hybrid’s engine just keeps the battery charged to power the electric motors in the vehicles.

The e-Power hybrid system for Nissan is planned to launch domestically later this year in a new version of its popular Rogue compact SUV. 

Timing for such a vehicle could be ideal for Nissan with climbing gas prices, slower-than-planned adoption of EVs and an expected surge in hybrid sales amid new entries, according to officials.

After losing billions of dollars on EVs, automakers such as Nissan are turning to hybrid vehicles to meet customer expectations for fuel economy and to help with driving performance.

S&P Global Mobility expects hybrids in the U.S. this year to increase to 18.4% of new vehicle sales, up from 12.6% last year and 7.3% in 2023. It’s forecasting pure EVs, meanwhile, will be 7.1% of new vehicle sales, down from 8% last year.

“This is a unique powertrain for the for the U.S.,” Kurt Rosolowsky, Nissan North America vehicle evaluation and test engineer, said during a media briefing. “This is an electrically driven vehicle, as far as what is powering the wheels, but it doesn’t have a plug, and you fill it up with gas like you do with a normal car.”

The current Nissan Rogue, depending on the model, can achieve more than 30 MPG, according to U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Nissan’s vehicles historically been less fuel efficient than those from its larger Japanese rivals. Honda Motor and Toyota Motor, the latter of which pioneered traditional hybrids with the Prius and continues to dominate the sector in the U.S.

Nissan declined to discuss the possibility of expanding the e-Power system to other vehicles in the U.S., but confirmed the new system is modular and capable of working with many different engines.

“If we were to expand this to other vehicles, you can theoretically bolt this onto another gasoline engine of a different size and have more options for an e-Power system,” Rosolowsky said.

Spring is traditionally the busiest season for home sales, and while this year’s market dynamics have shifted strongly in favor of buyers, broader forces in the economy are creating significant challenges.

The most important factor in any season is mortgage rates. They were expected to be lower this year, as the Federal Reserve dropped its lending rate to counter inflation, but the war with Iran has turned that on its head. The cost of oil is shooting higher, leading to rising inflation and causing the Fed to reconsider.

Now U.S. bond yields are rising, with mortgage rates following suit.

The average rate on the popular 30-year-fixed mortgage had started this year lower, even briefly dipping below 6% at the end of February, but it rose sharply this week to 6.53% on Friday, the first day of spring, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now just 18 basis points below where it was a year ago.

Higher rates will weigh on affordability, but other factors have flipped the market in favor of buyers. Homes are sitting on the market longer, sellers are increasingly willing to lower prices and the supply of homes for sale is rising, albeit not as quickly as it should be.

“As the housing market approaches the ‘best time to sell’ season, it sits in a precarious position, caught between long-term improvements and sudden short-term instability,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, wrote in a Weekly Housing Trends report. “Everything seems much more unsettled and uncertain than it did just a month ago.”

For the week ending on March 14, active inventory was up 5.6% year-over-year, according to Realtor.com, but new listings were down 1.4%.

This means the number of homes for sale is climbing not because there are so many more sellers, but because the homes on the market are sitting. That may be because potential sellers who expected to put their homes on the market are holding back due to concerns about the implications of the Iran war.

“I think inventory is the bigger decider,” said Jonathan Miller, director of markets for StreetMatrix, a housing market data provider. “The idea that rates are going to noticeably come down this year, I think, is generally off the table.”

Given the disparity in inventory across different markets, this spring is likely to be a tale of many cities.

For example, in February, active listings in Las Vegas, Seattle, Cincinnati and Washington, D.C., were all up over 20% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com. Listings in San Francisco, Chicago, Miami and Orlando, Florida, meanwhile, were lower than a year ago.

Home prices had been cooling off for much of the past year, and they continue to do so. Prices were just 0.7% higher in January than they were in January 2025, according to Cotality. That’s down from the 3.5% annual growth at the beginning of 2025. Higher mortgage rates, however, are taking away from that improved affordability.

The Northeast and Midwest are seeing the strongest price appreciation, led by New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin and Nebraska, due to tighter supply in those regions, according to Cotality.

Cotality ranks 69% of top metropolitan housing markets as overvalued, noting undervalued markets like Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco and Honolulu could see a rebound in prices in 2027.

“Ultimately, locations with consistent job growth will remain the primary engines for price appreciation, but they also have larger inventory deficits which are driving pressure on home prices,” Selma Hepp, Cotality’s chief economist, wrote in a recent report.

As for new construction, buyers are likely to see better deals this spring, as builders are struggling to unload an oversupply of homes. Inventories hit a 9.7-month supply in January, according to the U.S. Census, as the result of sales falling to the lowest level since 2022. A growing share of builders cut prices in March, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

“Affordability for buyers and builders remains a top concern,” Bill Owens, chairman of the NAHB, said in a release. “Many buyers remain on the fence waiting for lower interest rates and due to economic uncertainty. Builders are facing elevated land, labor and construction costs and nearly two-thirds continue to offer sales incentives in a bid to firm up the market.”

Construction of single-family homes also dropped in January. While some are blaming rough winter weather for the weakness in the new home market, builders are consistently battling affordability for both their customers and their own bottom lines. Costs for land, labor and materials have not eased.

“I think this is not going to be an inspiring year for the housing market. It started out with high expectations. I think the war, whatever the outcome, has really dampened enthusiasm and kept uncertainty really high,” StreetMatrix’s Miller said.

Mortgage rates surged to their highest level since September on Friday as bond yields moved higher due to the war in Iran.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan hit 6.41%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the highest rate since the first week of September, but still below the 6.78% notched at the same time last year.

Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which were up again Friday.

“This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war has a direct impact on inflation expectations, it’s more than enough to offset any of the safe haven benefit that might otherwise be seen,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.

Even as rates began rising last week, mortgage demand from homebuyers rose, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, but this week’s new surge could put a damper on the spring season, which is already plagued by other major headwinds.

Lennar, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, reported disappointing first-quarter earnings. Its CEO, Stuart Miller, described headwinds for the broader market as including “high mortgage rates, constrained affordability, cautious consumer sentiment, and geopolitical uncertainty, especially now including the recent conflict in Iran.”

Just two weeks ago, rates had dropped to match a multiyear low, briefly touching 5.99%. Now, any savings from those lower rates is gone.

For someone buying a $400,000 home, around the national median, with 20% down on a 30-year fixed mortgage, the monthly payment is now about $115 more than it would have been two weeks ago.

Private sector hiring was a bit better than expected in February, though most of the job creation came from just two sectors, ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added a seasonally adjusted 63,000 workers during the month, an improvement from the downwardly revised 11,000 in January and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 48,000, according to the payrolls processing firm’s latest update.

Though the total beat expectations, the issue of breadth continued to be a problem for the labor market.

Education and health services, an industry that has been the primary driver for job creation, added 58,000 jobs for the month, easily leading all sectors. After that, construction contributed 19,000, with the two industries offsetting stagnant growth across most other sectors.

Professional and business services saw a decline of 30,000 positions, manufacturing lost 5,000 and trade, transportation and utilities was off 1,000. Other than a gain of 11,000 in information services, there was little movement elsewhere. Manufacturing continued to decline despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to use tariffs to reshore jobs in the industry.

On the wage side, pay grew 4.5% for those staying in their jobs, unchanged from January. However, the wage gains for job switchers moved down to 6.3%, a 0.3 percentage point decline from the prior month. Those results reduced the incentive for changing jobs to the lowest level since ADP began tracking the metric.

“We’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs.”

In a switch from recent months, job creation was concentrated at businesses with fewer than 50 employees. That group saw gains of 60,000, while big businesses with 500 or more workers added 10,000 and medium-sized firms reported a drop of 7,000.

Job growth has taken a step down over the past year as the Trump administration has clamped down on illegal immigration and as the pace of post-Covid hiring has slowed. While companies have been reluctant to add workers, layoffs have remained low as well.

The report comes with questions over the state of the labor market as well as worries about stubbornly higher inflation, the latter coming even more into view with the fighting in Iran and the Middle East.

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate somewhat higher confidence that the jobs picture is stabilizing. At the same time, worries are increasing that a bump in oil prices will drive inflation higher. Traders are now indicating the next Fed interest rate cut won’t come until at least July and have lowered the probability for a second cut this year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker.

The ADP release precedes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wall Street is looking for a February increase of 50,000 jobs from the report, which unlike ADP also includes government hiring. Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3%.

Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is calling President Donald Trump’s bluff after he claimed to be “ending” the affordability crisis during his State of the Union address, opening a new front in the battle that could determine November’s midterm elections.

“Your claims are directly at odds with the day-to-day experiences of American households, who are struggling with rising costs of essentials, including food, housing, health care, child care, and electricity,” Warren, D-Mass., wrote in a letter to Trump, which was shared exclusively with CNBC after being sent late Wednesday. 

“Despite your claims, you have not ‘solved’ affordability or ‘defeated’ inflation. Instead, over the past year, prices have skyrocketed for American households,” Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, wrote.

Warren’s letter is the launching point for a frontal assault on Trump and congressional Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, which could be decided over affordability. Trump’s approval rating on the economy has plummeted as voters express concern about the high cost of living, a contrast with an economy he said was “roaring” during his State of the Union address. 

Now, Democrats are hoping to seize the opportunity to leverage affordability and kick Republicans out of power in Congress. Warren made clear the letter is only her first foray into knocking the president on affordability, as Democrats race around the country selling their economic message before November. 

“Over the coming weeks, I will be writing to Administration officials, companies, and industry representatives directly about your chaotic tariffs and failed economic policies — seeking answers for the American people who are being forced to pay more on everything from groceries to housing,” Warren said.

Warren late Wednesday also sent a letter to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy saying the online retailer was tardy in publicly saying that Trump’s tariffs had contributed to price increases on its platform since their enactment. She also asked Amazon to respond to a series of questions about its future plans on price hikes given Trump’s pledge to find ways tariffs in place. 

Trump has at times suggested he is getting serious about addressing affordability concerns. He’s called for a cap on interest on credit cards, which he did not mention in his speech. He’s also called for a ban on institutional investors from buying homes, which he did mention. Both are also priorities of Warren’s and the progressive left.

But in his State of the Union address, Trump laid blame solely on Democrats for affordability and argued his administration has solved the problem, as polls consistently show increased economic concern from voters. 

“You caused that problem,” the president said. “They knew their statements were a dirty, rotten lie. Their policies created the high prices, our policies are rapidly ending them.”

While overall inflation has cooled significantly from recent highs, the cost of many everyday goods remains high, especially compared to before the Covid-19 pandemic. Electricity prices have skyrocketed amid increased demand from data centers, grocery prices remain high and housing costs have remained inflated. Trump’s tariff agenda has also contributed to lingering high prices. 

Trump doubled down on issuing tariffs through other means during his address, after the Supreme Court knocked down the authority he had been using to implement them. 

The tariffs will “remain in place under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes,” he said. 

To Warren, that only provided ammunition. 

“Rather than providing relief to consumers, you are pursuing additional across-the-board tariffs through other mechanisms — opening the door to yet another wave of price hike,” she said in her letter. 

Mortgage rates dropped sharply last week, and while that helped to prolong gains in refinancing, homebuyer demand seemed unimpressed.

Total mortgage application volume was essentially flat, rising just 0.4% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.09% from 6.17%, with points falling to 0.53 from 0.56, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That was the lowest level since September 2022.

Applications to refinance a home loan increased 4% last week from the week before and were 150% higher than the same week one year ago, when rates were 79 basis points higher. Refinancing has been on a bit of a tear lately, as rates drop. While the comparisons to a year ago are quite large, it is important to take into account that refinancing was quite low at this time last year.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week and were 12% higher year over year. While lower mortgage rates are improving affordability, home prices are still slightly higher than they were at this time last year and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on consumers.

Redfin cited this uncertainty in a report showing that nearly 40,000 home sale agreements nationwide were canceled in January, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract. That’s up from 13.1% a year ago and the highest January share in records dating to 2017.

Borrowers also sought more savings in adjustable-rate mortgages, which are slightly riskier but offer lower rates.

“The ARM share stayed above 8 percent, as ARM rates remained more than 80 basis points below conforming fixed rates,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a release. “This is giving payment-sensitive borrowers or those seeking larger loans, an incentive to choose this product offering.”

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday that interest rate cuts aren’t appropriate until there’s more evidence that inflation is on its way down.

With recent indicators showing that inflation well off its highs but still above the Fed’s 2% target, Goolsbee noted that policymakers “have been burned by assuming transitory inflation” in the past and shouldn’t make the same mistake again.

“I feel that front-loading too many rate cuts is not prudent in that circumstance,” he said in remarks before the National Association for Business Economics at its annual gathering in Washington, D.C. “People express that prices are one of their most pressing concerns. Let’s pay attention. Before we cut rates more to stimulate the economy, let’s be sure inflation is heading back to 2%.”

The most recent inflation data, for December, showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, running at 3%, as measured by the consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary forecasting gauge. That was up 0.2 percentage point from November and came somewhat due to tariffs, which are viewed as temporary, but also from underlying pressures in the service sector and areas not directly impacted by the duties.

Specifically, Goolsbee said stubbornly high housing inflation isn’t tariff driven, emphasizing the need for the Fed to be “vigilant.”

Goolsbee noted that a 3% inflation rate “is not good enough — and it’s not what we promised when the Federal Reserve committed to the 2% target. Stalling out at 3% is not a safe place to be for a myriad of reasons we know all too well.” He has said previously that he thinks the Fed will be able to cut later in the year.

The remarks come with markets expecting the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Goolsbee is a voter this year, to stay on hold until at least June and probably July. Futures traders are placing about a 50-50 chance of a cut in June and about a 71% probability of a July cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. The Fed enacted three quarter-percentage-point cuts in the latter part of 2025.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been an advocate for lower rates, took a more measured approach Monday while also speaking to the NABE conference.

Though Waller said he thinks policymakers should “look through” tariff impacts, he said recent data show the labor market may be in better shape than previously indicated, mitigating the need for further cuts. If the jobs picture continues to improve, that would further lessen the case for cuts, though he said he isn’t convinced that the January nonfarm payrolls data wasn’t “more noise than signal.”

Tuesday will be an active day Fed speakers, with Governor Lisa Cook also due to present to the NABE later in the morning.