Private sector output in the euro zone sank to a 10-month low in March, amid mounting evidence of the impact the Iran conflict is having on the global economy.

The closely-watched S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the euro zone fell to 50.5 in March, marking a steep decline from the 51.9 reported in February.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a shallower dip to 51.0. The 50.0 threshold separates expansion from contraction territory.

The reading prompted fresh warnings that the region is facing the specter of looming stagflation — a toxic combination of high inflation and unemployment, and stalling growth.

“The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented Tuesday.

“Firms’ costs are rising at the fastest rate for over three years amid the surge in energy prices and choking of supply chains resulting from the war. Supplier delays have jumped to their highest since mid-2022, largely linked to shipping issues.”

Euro zone companies surveyed by S&P Global scaled back hiring marginally during March, as bosses lowered output expectations for the year when compared with February forecasts, according to S&P Global economists.

“Stagflation” is often seen as a “worse case scenario” for economies and poses a dilemma for central banks because the tools they’d usually use to combat high inflation — higher interest rates — can stifle growth and employment, while lowering rates can boost growth but increase demand and inflation.

The euro zone is not alone in seeing private sector activity slow due to the Iran war, with PMI data from India earlier on Tuesday also showing output growth slowed to its lowest level since October 2022.

In revised forecasts released last week, the European Central Bank now expects economic growth of 0.9% in 2026, and headline inflation to average 2.6% this year.

That outlook could be optimistic, however, with S&P Global’s Williamson noting that the PMI survey’s price gauge was indicative of inflation accelerating close to 3%, “with cost pressure likely to add still further to selling price inflation in the coming months.”

“The outlook depends on the duration of the war and any potential lasting impact on energy and supply chains, but the flash PMI data underscore how the European Central Bank is no longer in a ‘good place’ with respect to growth and inflation,” Williamson said.

The March PMIs show the conflict in Iran is already having a significant impact on the euro area economy, J.P. Morgan’s Raphael Brun-Aguerre noted Tuesday.

“Overall, the survey points to a large near-term inflation impact from higher energy that could feed into core prices … The energy price shock could hit business profitability and has already damaged demand conditions and output more broadly in the region. Business sentiment is being hit significantly. European Commission data [out Monday] already showed a large hit to consumer confidence in March,” he noted in emailed analysis.

Early Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was time for negotiations with Iran, given the “critical” nature of the global energy crisis.

“The situation is critical for the energy supply allies worldwide. We all feel the knock-on effects on gas and oil prices, our businesses and our societies, but it is of utmost importance that we come to a solution that is negotiated, and this puts an end to the hostilities that we see in the Middle East.”

LONDON — European stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest U.K. inflation data and monitored global market developments.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was roughly 0.5% higher shortly after the open, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 were up 0.3%, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.4%.

German life sciences company Bayer extended losses and was down 7.3% in early trading after its Monsanto Unit had proposed paying $7.25 billion to settle lawsuits claiming that its weed killer Roundup was causing cancer, it said in a press release on Tuesday.

It said it expects its provisions and litigation liabilities to rise from 7.8 billion euros ($9.24 billion) to 11.8 billion euros, with approximately 5 billion euros in litigation-related payments in 2026. Bayer expects a negative free cash flow for this year.

The UK inflation rate fell to 3% in January, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the consumer price index to fall to 3%, down from 3.4% in the twelve months to December.

“The UK has experienced higher and more prolonged inflation compared to the US or eurozone area, but today’s data shows the tide is changing,” David Smith, portfolio manager at Henderson High Income Trust plc, said.

“Inflation is likely to drop to 2% by the end of the year if not earlier, opening the door to further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England,” Smith added.

The British Pound was flat against the dollar following the as-expected data, at $1.3562. British government bond yields, known as gilts, also held steady.

Sterling dipped and British government bond yields fell during Tuesday’s trading session after data showed the U.K.’s unemployment rate rose to a five-year high, while wage growth slowed.

Earnings on Wednesday come from Glencore, BAE Systems, Orange and Euronext. 

Asian stocks pushed higher overnight in holiday-thinned trade with markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea among those closed for Lunar New Year holidays.

U.S. stock futures were near the flatline in overnight trading after a tepid session on Tuesday. Traders on Wednesday will be watching for the Federal Reserve minutes from the policymakers’ January meeting.

The next big catalyst this week, however, will likely be the personal consumption expenditures price index reading that’s due on Friday. The PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will give further insight into the state of the economy.

— CNBC’s Pia Singh contributed to this market report.