Talks between Canada and the United States to reduce sectoral tariffs have resumed “in a sense,” Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump suspended them last fall.

“We were in the process of advancing, we thought, in a positive way on the sectoral tariffs — that was the discussion that Mr. Trump suspended,” LeBlanc told reporters in Ottawa.

He then pointed to his meeting on March 6 in Washington with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, where the Canadian minister introduced Greer to chief U.S. trade negotiator Janice Charette and U.S. Ambassador Mark Wiseman — both of whom began their new roles last month.

LeBlanc said Charette also had her first meeting with her direct counterpart in Greer’s office at the same time.

“So in a sense, that would have been the resumption of those conversations,” LeBlanc said, adding more conversations have been held between himself, Wiseman and Charrette with their U.S. counterparts.

“We remain seized both with the challenge that the sectoral tariffs represent and the review of CUSMA (the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on free trade),” which is set to formally begin in July between all three countries.

The bottom line, LeBlanc said later, is that Canadian talks with U.S. counterparts “remain productive and we remain engaged. That is different than October.”

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Trump in October suspended talks aimed at reducing his tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and other Canadian industries in anger over an Ontario government ad that quoted former U.S. president Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.

Prime Minister Mark Carney apologized to Trump personally for the ad, but Trump said the trade talks remained on hold.

Before the suspension, LeBlanc said Canada and the U.S. had been discussing “a series of measures that we thought would have been beneficial to the economy of both countries, and we continue to have those discussions and look forward — we hope — to arriving at a conclusion.”

Greer has since suggested difficulties in talks with Canada and complained about ongoing trade barriers, including provinces refusing to sell American alcohol products.

He said this month after the meeting with LeBlanc that “Canada is behind” on bilateral talks leading up to this summer’s CUSMA review compared to Mexico, which has already begun formal negotiations with the U.S.

0:53
Most Americans oppose tariffs on Canadian goods, poll finds

LeBlanc said Monday he expects Canada to begin its own negotiations with the U.S. “in due course” and that those will be separate from the trilateral talks expected later this year.

He said he has discussed the U.S. alcohol issue with premiers and provincial and territorial ministers, but wouldn’t speak for whether they are considering lifting the bans to help smooth things over with Washington.

“They can make the decisions they want,” he said.

“All the provinces and territories and the government of Canada have been working collaboratively to ensure that we protect the Canadian economy and Canadian workers. And we’re in a position to have those discussions with the Americans in a way that will benefit the Canadian economy and Canadian workers.”

Asked if Canada’s position on the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran has affected the talks in any way, LeBlanc said it hasn’t.

“The good news is in my conversations with U.S. officials, this has not been an impediment at all,” he said.

“I know in the prime minister’s discussion with the president a few weeks ago … to say that that was a barrier or an impediment, or even the idea of a ‘changing position,’ I wouldn’t share that view either.”

He added neither Charrette or Wiseman have raised Iran as an issue that’s come up in their conversations with the Americans either.

The sectoral tariffs remain in place despite the U.S. Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs that were imposed under a different, emergency powers provision the court ruled Trump has misused.

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A Republican bill introduced Thursday takes aim at Canada’s Online Streaming Act and threatens retaliatory measures for the “discriminatory” policy, including additional tariffs and even changes to the North American free trade agreement.

The legislation from U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania would launch a U.S. Trade Representative investigation into whether the Canadian law unfairly burdens American commerce.

If that conclusion is reached, the bill orders “necessary retaliatory action” such as tariffs or “the suspension, withdrawal, or modification of trade agreement concessions or benefits to Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,” referred to in Canada as CUSMA.

“Digital trade plays a critical role in America’s economy, supporting high-paying jobs and exporting American values,” Smucker said in a statement.

“Canada’s unfair policies stack the deck against U.S. companies, creators, and workers. This bill would protect American creators and companies while permitting mutually beneficial competition and innovation.”

The statement includes supportive quotes from leaders of the Motion Picture Association and other U.S. digital media and communications groups.

The Online Streaming Act was passed in 2023 and would empower the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) to force large foreign platforms like Netflix and Amazon to pay a portion of their annual Canadian revenues into funds devoted to producing Canadian content.

6:47
Bill C-11: The future of broadcasting and streaming in Canada

The policy has yet to be implemented while the CRTC seeks to finalize an updated definition of Canadian content, which is being challenged in court.

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U.S. streamers and the Motion Picture Association have filed court challenges against the Online Streaming Act, as well as the CRTC’s requirement that those companies disclose financial information in order to ensure the Canadian content funding obligations are met.

The Trump administration has identified the law as a trade irritant ahead of this summer’s scheduled review of CUSMA.

Smucker and a bipartisan group of U.S. House lawmakers sent a letter to the Canadian government last November calling for the policy to be withdrawn.

Pressure from the Trump administration last year led Ottawa to rescind its digital services tax that would have applied to a wider swath of U.S. tech companies for operating in Canada.

Ottawa has argued the Online Streaming Act is necessary because of U.S. streamers’ outsized presence in the Canadian market. But the companies and U.S. lawmakers say American platforms shouldn’t be unfairly burdened with foreign taxes and spending requirements.

Smucker’s bill argues that Canada’s use of a cultural exemption under CUSMA to enact the policy undermines the trade agreement and is based on outdated definitions.

The offices of Culture Minister Marc Miller, whose ministry is responsible for the Online Streaming Act, and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The bill would trigger an investigation under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, which allows a president to impose tariffs to counter unfair trade practices.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said Section 301 will be used to replace many of the tariffs that were imposed using emergency powers, but were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court last month.

The Trump administration this month announced Section 301 investigations into dozens of countries, including Canada, over allegations of forced labour and excess manufacturing capacity.

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The Bank of Canada is set to update interest rates on Wednesday as the Iran war brings a dark cloud over the Canadian economy and as Ottawa prepares to release a fiscal update sometime this spring.

Oil price spikes globally have quickly led to higher gas prices for consumers, and economists expect inflation to tick up in the coming months. This means just about everything else is about to get more expensive for consumers and businesses alike.

“Whether it’s uncertainty or actual smoke, there’s a dark cloud hanging over the global economy thanks to the Iran war,” said Clay Jarvis, a mortgage expert at NerdWallet Canada, in a note.

“It’s fair to wonder if a rate cut would even move the needle for consumers and businesses; the current economic/political climate doesn’t feel all that hopeful.”

The Bank of Canada has a mandate “to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.”

To do this, one of its key goals is to maintain price stability by keeping the annual inflation rate between two and three per cent.

Other economic gauges the Bank monitors closely include the perceived strength of the job market and the rate at which the economy is expanding, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).

To help achieve its mandate, the Bank of Canada’s main tool is adjusting monetary policy, or interest rates. This effectively changes the cost of borrowing money for consumers and businesses.

If inflation gets too high, then raising interest rates usually slows down the rate at which prices are increasing, while inflation getting too low means the economy could contract and even enter a recession. This would likely result in cutting rates to encourage more business activity and job hiring.

Getting monetary policy aligned with the immediate needs of Canada’s economy is a fine balancing act that the Bank of Canada’s governing body discusses on a regular basis at monetary policy meetings.

“The Bank [of Canada] can only act on what it knows, which is that inflation is near its two per cent target and that the economy hasn’t keeled over after a year of Trumponomics,” said Jarvis.

“Cutting the overnight rate right before a possible spike in inflation would be terribly uncharacteristic of one of the world’s most risk-averse central banks.”

6:51
Breaking down the impact of oil prices

Wednesday’s announcement will follow the Bank’s second meeting of the year, and several weeks into the Iran war. Although inflation in February cooled to 1.8 per cent, that was mostly before the war sent oil and gas prices skyrocketing.

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“Canada’s inflation cooled in February, but that is backward-looking now that prices at the pump have skyrocketed in the wake of the U.S./Israeli war with Iran. We expect higher energy costs will lift headline inflation close to three per cent in the months ahead,” said Leslie Preston, managing director and senior economist at TD Bank, in a statement.

“The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is coming up on Wednesday, and the Bank is universally expected to remain on pause. We will be listening closely for the Bank’s assessment of the impact of the oil shock on Canada’s economy.”

The Bank of Canada has not changed its benchmark interest rate since the quarter percentage point cut to 2.25 per cent on Oct. 29, 2025. Following the announcement last year, Governor Tiff Macklem said rates are “at about the right level.”

Although many economists expect the Bank of Canada to continue taking a wait-and-see approach, higher inflation as a result of price shocks stemming from the Iran war could add pressure to the central bank the longer the conflict goes on.

“Given the inflationary threat from higher energy prices, [financial] markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate increase from the Bank of Canada later this year. We deem this unlikely,” said Sal Guatuieri, senior economist and director of Economics at the Bank of Montreal in a statement.

“We suspect policymakers will look past the oil-driven rise in prices and remain wary of economic risks until the fog from both the Iran war and the trade war lifts.”

2:22
Business Matters: Iran oil shock spurs worldwide push to conserve energy

Wednesday’s rate announcement also comes just a few weeks before the end of the federal government’s fiscal year on March 31, and it’s expected to provide an economic update shortly after. This follows the Budget 2025 released in November, which marked a new timeline for budget and fiscal update releases.

By pushing the budget release from the spring to the fall, the economic update now occurs in the spring.

This means Ottawa will be expected to show Canadians how its spending plans outlined in the budget have been coming along and if they are on track to meet their goals.

Global News sent the Department of Finance a request for when the spring economic update will be delivered.

“The upcoming economic update will proceed as scheduled in the spring. The exact date will be announced in due course,” said John Fragos, press secretary for the minister of finance and national revenue in response.

Doug Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, says even with the potential of higher inflation on the horizon, the Canadian economy still needs room to grow.

“If anything, the threat of higher inflation has rekindled chatter of a potential rate hike in 2026. We still view that as a very long shot indeed, with the economy struggling to grow, employment weakening heavily in recent months, core inflation moving closer to the two per cent target, and [Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA] uncertainty still clouding the outlook,” Porter said in a note to Global news.

“Trade talks have finally restarted again after a four-month pause, but there are no guarantees of success. Against that backdrop, we look for the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates steady for an extended period, even as inflation temporarily flares higher on the oil price spike. “

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Canada’s jobs minister says the federal government is working on agreements with every province and territory to fund retraining for unemployed workers impacted by U.S. tariffs, after announcing a $228.8-million infusion for Ontario on Tuesday.

Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu said the three-year agreement will help over 27,000 workers across Ontario, with a focus on industries that have been targeted by U.S. President Donald Trump, and comes on top of nearly $1 billion that Ottawa contributes annually to employment programs in the province.

“As of January this year, Ontario’s unemployment rate stood at 7.3 per cent, and this is a red flag,” Hajdu told reporters in Ottawa alongside her provincial counterpart David Piccini, Ontario’s minister of labour, immigration, training and skills development.

“This means that tariffs actually have caused labour market challenges, and in particular in the automotive, steel and softwood lumber sectors have really taken the largest hit.”

Statistics Canada data shows Ontario’s unemployment rate is down slightly from the month prior and from January 2025, before Trump began imposing tariffs on Canada and particular sectors like autos and steel.

The provincial rate is higher than the national rate of 6.5 per cent in January — itself down from 6.8 per cent the previous month — but lower than Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador, which tops the list.

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Hajdu noted the agreement with Ontario comes days after a similar one was announced in British Columbia, where tariffs have hurt the already-struggling softwood lumber sector.

“Each province and territory is in the process of signing an agreement with Canada,” she said.

“Ultimately, I think it’s about ensuring that the money is going towards specifically tariff-affected workers in the most efficient way and making sure that we have good agreements around sharing data so that we can also learn from what we’re doing and make sure that what we’re doing is effective.”

The federal government in September committed an additional $450 million over three years to retrain and upskill up to 50,000 workers through provincial and territorial labour market development agreements.

The announcement was part of a suite of measures designed to respond to U.S. tariffs, including a $5-billion strategic response fund and a $50-million workforce innovation fund to help businesses retain their workforces.

2:08
Carney unveils ‘Buy Canadian’ multi-billion-dollar package to combat tariffs

The Ontario funding will be provided through the Canada–Ontario Workforce Tariff Response and the Canada–Ontario Labour Market Development Agreement, which supports free employment services and training programs for job-seekers.

Funds will also be distributed by Skills Advance Ontario to retrain unemployed workers for in-demand jobs, and for employed workers to gain new skills.

The government’s announcement said employment opportunities will be created through national initiatives like the Major Projects Office — which is currently considering two Ontario projects, including a new nuclear energy project — and the defence industrial strategy.

Hajdu was in B.C. last Friday to announce almost $71 million of joint retraining funding over three years through the new Canada-British Columbia Workforce Tariff Response.

She said then that “no worker will be left behind” as global trade evolves.

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Washington must avoid any new tariffs with Ottawa during a review of its trilateral trade agreement, mayors of several Canadian and U.S. cities urge.

The Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative, a multinational coalition of municipal and Indigenous government executives representing communities in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River region, said Thursday the time is now to rebuild trade relations and invest in local water infrastructure.

That region represents nearly 50 per cent of all Canada-U.S. bilateral trade and forms a $12.98-trillion economy, it said.

“The U.S.-Canada trade relationship has long been a pillar for the economic growth and prosperity of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Region,” said Toronto Deputy Mayor Paul Ainslie in a news release.

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The group is also urging Washington to preserve and strengthen the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and avoid any new tariffs or tariff increases on Canada during its review this year.

The asks come as Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is set to head to Washington.

LeBlanc will be stateside Friday ahead of the CUSMA review, which is set for this summer.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said during a media availability in Australia Wednesday that Canada’s free trade pact with the United States “effectively has been broken in the short-term by U.S. actions.”

Canada has been feeling the impact of sectoral U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and the auto sector.

Carney said certain protocols under CUSMA weren’t followed when U.S. President Donald Trump ordered tariffs on Canada.

He added Canada is looking to this year’s CUSMA review as a process to “re-establish the trust” individuals, businesses and investors need to guide trade between the nations.

LeBlanc’s trip also comes after a judge with the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that businesses are owed refunds for Trump’s tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — a set of duties ruled illegal by the Supreme Court last month.

— With files from The Canadian Press

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A year after Ontario Premier Doug Ford ordered the LCBO to remove all products made in the United States, the government says roughly $2 million worth of booze has gone to waste.

On March 4, 2025, in response to the first round of tariffs levied by U.S. President Donald Trump, American alcohol was officially removed from the shelves of provincial liquor stores.

Ontario imported roughly $965 million worth of booze from America before the ban.

A year later, the Ministry of Finance said sales of Ontario-made alcohol products had increased roughly 22 per cent, with craft products up 35 per cent. A spokesperson said sales of VQA Ontario wines were up 52 per cent after the ban, which included California wine.

“We have been clear: until tariffs are completely removed, U.S. alcohol will remain off shelves,”

Through the winter, the government resisted calls to auction off expiring American products to raise funds for food banks, a move which had been used in other jurisdictions.

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It means roughly $2 million worth of U.S. products have either expired or will expire in the next few months. Most of those products, according to the government, are beer, ready-to-drink beverages and wine.

Exactly what those products were and when the government worked out they would expire is a closely-guarded secret.

Documents obtained by Global News using freedom of information laws show there was extensive interest from the CEO of the LCBO and the Minister of Finance during the summer about what would expire and when.

“I am touching base on some urgent questions that we need LCBO’s input on,” an official with the Ministry of Finance wrote in one email dated August, 2025.

“The U.S. inventory item is quite urgent at the moment and if you could provide answers to these questions as soon as possible that would be great. Please prioritize question 1 as the Minister is inquiring – we need an answer to this by Monday.”

What the minister wanted to know, however, is unclear. The majority of pages were partially or fully redacted by privacy officials, citing advice to the government and potential economic harm from their release.

The documents suggest regular reviews of expiring American stock are taking place at the LCBO.

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One year after the U.S. sparked a global trade war with repeated rounds of tariffs, more than half of Canada’s small businesses say the U.S. is no longer a reliable trading partner, according to the latest data.

A report released Wednesday by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) shows that 52 per cent of business owners surveyed agreed with this sentiment.

Three-quarters of small businesses that participated, or 75 per cent, said tariffs have strained their relationship with U.S. partners or clients, which is up from 49 per cent a year ago.

U.S. President Donald Trump last year imposed tariffs on goods imported from virtually all countries. The unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign relations and trade policies has led to uncertainty for consumers, businesses and governments alike.

“Small businesses have faced massive uncertainty since the trade battle began last year,” Dan Kelly, CFIB president, said in the report.

“Small business owners have been dealing with the whiplash of trying to keep up with sudden changes and threats, including many that don’t happen or are revised within hours. With CUSMA coming up for review in the months ahead, the stakes are even higher.”

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The CFIB’s report was based on data from two surveys conducted in December 2025 and February, and featured 1,379 and 1,663 participants, respectively. The organization says Ottawa needs to do more to help small businesses impacted by tariffs.

“Small business owners are telling us they feel abandoned in dealing with tariff costs,” Michelle Auger, CFIB director of trade and marketplace competitiveness, said in the report.

“With fewer people starting businesses, we can’t afford to overlook the ones we have. Ottawa needs to step up and find better ways to help.”

1:06
Carney announces $80M tariff relief for businesses in Atlantic Canada

The manufacturing sector has been most impacted by tariffs in Canada, including steel and aluminum, lumber, automobiles and auto parts.

Most other products and services are exempt from tariffs so long as they conform to the terms of the current Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), but that’s up for review later this year.

Twenty-seven per cent of businesses are hurt by tariffs on non-CUSMA-compliant goods, according to the CFIB, and 68 per cent of Canadian small business owners participating in the surveys report being negatively affected by U.S. tariffs.

The federal and provincial governments, as well as business owners large and small, have been working to diversify trading partners to avoid immediate tariff impacts and to mitigate future trade shocks.

Prime Minister Mark Carney recently wrapped up trips to China and India and is currently in Australia to help establish these renewed trade relationships.

Tariffs have essentially stunted business growth in Canada, with GDP rising less than two per cent in 2025. Annualized economic growth of two per cent has been the standard in Canada for each of the previous two years.

Multiple rounds of job cuts in Canada’s impacted sectors have also been a direct result of tariffs, with General Motors and Algoma Steel being a couple of the most recent examples.

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One of Quebec’s best-known coffee producers is bringing production back to Canada after shifting part of its operations to the United States during a period of steep tariffs.

Sherbrooke-based Café William says it has begun repatriating a portion of its production to Quebec following a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that led to the removal of tariffs on coffee exports to the United States.

The company had temporarily transferred some production south of the border after tariffs exceeding 35 per cent threatened the viability of certain contracts with American private-label clients.

In a statement, Café William said the move was a temporary measure designed to protect its Quebec operations and workforce.

“To mitigate these impacts while preserving jobs and operations in Quebec, Café William entered into a production exchange agreement with an American partner,” the company said.

“With the tariffs now revoked, we are able to bring this production back to our facilities in Sherbrooke and resume normal operations in Canada.”

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The company added that throughout the transition, all Café William products sold in Canada continued to be roasted in Sherbrooke and no layoffs occurred.

It says it is now hiring to support increased production capacity in Quebec.

The Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce told Global News that the move reflects what other businesses in the region have also been facing.

In a statement, the chamber said tariff uncertainty has had a “tangible impact” on manufacturing and agri-food businesses across Sherbrooke and the Eastern Townships.

“Even when companies are not directly targeted by tariffs, the instability creates an unpredictable business environment,” the chamber said, pointing to fluctuations in input costs, pressure on margins, logistical delays and increased caution among American partners.

The chamber said businesses are responding strategically.

“Many are working to diversify their export markets, further secure their supply chains, or bring certain operations back to Quebec to reduce their exposure to tariff risk,” the statement said.

“Predictability in trade rules is essential to enable companies to invest, hire, and plan for medium and long-term growth.”

Café William, which has operated in Quebec for nearly 40 years, says the return of production to Sherbrooke marks a reversal of a strategy it adopted last year to navigate the trade dispute.

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There were three unemployed Canadians for every job vacancy in December, according to a report from Statistics Canada released Thursday.

That marks a slight increase from a year earlier as the job market tightens and competition grows amid the trade war and U.S. tariffs, which will hit the one-year mark in March.

There were 514,600 job vacancies in December 2025, which was down 3.8 per cent from a year earlier and the highest number of vacant positions since March of last year.

At the same time, the number of unemployed Canadians increased in December by 49,100, according to the Labour Force Survey released separately.

December’s unemployment rate was 6.8 per cent of Canada’s working age population, and up from 6.5 per cent in November.

A job vacancy can exist for a variety of reasons.

Some businesses may be facing a skills gap or sector-specific shortage, where employers may not be able to find candidates with specific qualifications or skills for the roles that are open.

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Employee departures can also lead to job openings that are counted as vacancies in the month if they haven’t been filled yet. This can include people who may have resigned, retired or taken a temporary absence, such as maternity/paternity leave or for sickness.

4:05
Robert Half Hiring Complexities

Job vacancies were up the most in accommodation and food services with 10,600 openings, while construction job openings increased by 6,000, manufacturing by 2,900 and educational services by 2,000.

Sectors where job vacancies fell in December, meaning vacant jobs were either filled or eliminated, included health care and social assistance with a 10,700 decline, while retail trade fell by 7,300 openings, and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting fell by 1,700.

The Bank of Canada released a report in December after surveying more than 500 Canadian hiring managers the month before about their outlook for the first six months of 2026. Nearly a third of companies, or 29 per cent, said they have open positions they haven’t been able to fill.

The report from the Bank of Canada said one of the challenges for hiring managers appeared to be a skills gap, with 49 per cent saying applicants lacked relevant experience, 47 per cent cited a lack of hard skills and 44 per cent said it was soft skills.

Thursday’s report from Statistics Canada also included a measure of what it calls “payroll employment,” or the number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer.

Unlike the Labour Force Survey, payroll employment does not include self-employed people, owners and partners of unincorporated businesses and professional practices and those employed in agriculture.

Payroll employment decreased in December by 0.2 per cent, or 35,400 from November, and down 0.2 per cent from a year earlier.

The decrease was mainly seen in manufacturing by 7,400, in wholesale trade by 6,300, and in transportation and warehousing by 5,900.

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New economic data coming on Friday is set to give the clearest picture yet of how hard U.S. tariffs and the trade war hammered the Canadian economy for the full year of 2025.

That comes as uncertainty continues to dominate most predictions for 2026 and amid a new round of 10 per cent U.S. tariffs on countries around the world that went into effect on Tuesday after previous global tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump early in 2025 were struck down on Feb. 20.

December’s report on gross domestic product (GDP) will be released by Statistics Canada on Friday, and will give a summary of the final quarter of 2025, offering insight into the full scope of the economic impacts for the year.

Royal Bank of Canada released a report on Feb. 20 outlining predictions for the GDP report. It was authored by RBC’s assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and senior economist Claire Fan.

“International trade uncertainty and volatility has been a persistent feature in the growth backdrop over the last year, but we expect a flat Q4 gross domestic product reading for Canada next Friday [Feb. 27] was in part due to temporary disruptions in the economy with signs of stronger activity late in the quarter,” the report said.

Despite some positive signs within a few of the previous GDP reports, RBC says, “still, soft spots remain.”

5:40
Trump raises new global tariffs to 15% after Supreme Court ruling

GDP is measured by adding the value of all goods and services produced within a country during a given period.

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In November, GDP showed zero per cent growth from October, when GDP fell 0.3 per cent.

December’s GDP report will conclude the fourth quarter of 2025.

RBC’s report is somewhat optimistic for the results expected to be released on Friday, and forecasts that GDP in the month will be up by 0.2 per cent.

“The silver lining to a soft looking quarter is that most of the weakness was concentrated in October and November with industry reports for December mostly positive,” the RBC report said.

“Following two soft growth prints in October and November, we expect a 0.2 per cent increase in December that would be slightly above Statistics Canada’s 0.1 per cent advance estimate. That would leave Q4 tracking close to our (and the Bank of Canada’s) forecast for no growth after a 2.6 per cent annualized increase in Q3.”

The third quarter of last year saw GDP rise 2.6 per cent in the three months from July through September. This meant Canada avoided a recession, which economists define as two back-to-back quarters, or six straight months, where GDP drops.

2:23
Business Matters: Canadian economy loses 25,000 jobs in January

When the September GDP report was released, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce warned that there were still concerns for the economy.

“Canada’s headline growth only looks good on paper — external conditions will continue to put pressure on the economy,” Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement from November.

“We’ll need strong domestic demand to carry more of the load — it simply wasn’t there in third quarter GDP. Households and businesses are still holding back, and the economy hasn’t found the momentum it needs to shift into a higher gear.”

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