Target plans to report its holiday-quarter earnings and share its expectations for the year ahead on Tuesday morning, as its new CEO lays out his strategy and tries to persuade Wall Street that the big-box retailer can end its sales slump.

The Minneapolis-based discounter will hold an investor meeting at its headquarters, led by CEO Michael Fiddelke, the company veteran who stepped into the job in February, as well as other Target executives.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for the big-box retailer’s fiscal fourth quarter, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $2.15 expected
• Revenue: $30.48 billion expected

Those results would come in shy of what Target reported in the year-ago period. The company recently affirmed its outlook for the fourth quarter, saying it expects sales to decline by a low single-digit percentage, and it anticipates its full fiscal 2025 forecast for adjusted earnings per share will range between $7 and $8. In the previous fiscal year, Target reported adjusted earnings per share of $8.86.

Target is trying to turn around several years of disappointing results driven by a mix of company missteps and economic factors. Its annual sales have been roughly flat for four years, after a significant jump in annual revenue during the Covid pandemic.

Customer traffic across the company’s stores and website has fallen for three consecutive quarters and the average amount people are spending during those visits has declined, too. Target cut 1,800 corporate jobs in October, marking its first major layoff in a decade.

Some of Target’s customers told CNBC they are shopping elsewhere after noticing changes like sloppier stores and lackluster merchandise, or objecting to the company’s social stances, like its rollback of major diversity, equity, inclusion initiatives. The company acknowledged backlash to its DEI decision had hurt sales and led to market share losses to competitors.

Target is known for selling clothing, home goods, seasonal items and other trend-driven discretionary merchandise that customers often buy on impulse when browsing the aisles on a “Target run.” Yet higher prices of food, utilities and other necessities, fueled by inflation and tariffs, has dampened U.S. consumers’ willingness to buy items that aren’t on the shopping list.

Target’s results have been at odds with those of retail rivals like Walmart, Costco and T.J. Maxx, which have posted stronger sales results, attracted shoppers across incomes, and seen growth in categories like apparel and home goods, areas where Target has struggled.

In an interview with CNBC in the fall at Target’s headquarters, Fiddelke said he would prioritize regaining the company’s reputation for style and design, improving the customer experience, and using technology to boost its performance.

He has echoed those key goals in messages to the company’s employees and comments to investors.

Last month, Target announced it would invest more in store labor and cut about 500 other roles at distribution centers and regional offices. However, the company declined to say much more it would spend.

Target shares have dropped by nearly 32% over the past three years, as of Monday’s close, though they have risen nearly 16% so far this year. The company’s stock closed on Monday at $113.17, bringing its market cap to $51.24 billion.

Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is calling President Donald Trump’s bluff after he claimed to be “ending” the affordability crisis during his State of the Union address, opening a new front in the battle that could determine November’s midterm elections.

“Your claims are directly at odds with the day-to-day experiences of American households, who are struggling with rising costs of essentials, including food, housing, health care, child care, and electricity,” Warren, D-Mass., wrote in a letter to Trump, which was shared exclusively with CNBC after being sent late Wednesday. 

“Despite your claims, you have not ‘solved’ affordability or ‘defeated’ inflation. Instead, over the past year, prices have skyrocketed for American households,” Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, wrote.

Warren’s letter is the launching point for a frontal assault on Trump and congressional Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, which could be decided over affordability. Trump’s approval rating on the economy has plummeted as voters express concern about the high cost of living, a contrast with an economy he said was “roaring” during his State of the Union address. 

Now, Democrats are hoping to seize the opportunity to leverage affordability and kick Republicans out of power in Congress. Warren made clear the letter is only her first foray into knocking the president on affordability, as Democrats race around the country selling their economic message before November. 

“Over the coming weeks, I will be writing to Administration officials, companies, and industry representatives directly about your chaotic tariffs and failed economic policies — seeking answers for the American people who are being forced to pay more on everything from groceries to housing,” Warren said.

Warren late Wednesday also sent a letter to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy saying the online retailer was tardy in publicly saying that Trump’s tariffs had contributed to price increases on its platform since their enactment. She also asked Amazon to respond to a series of questions about its future plans on price hikes given Trump’s pledge to find ways tariffs in place. 

Trump has at times suggested he is getting serious about addressing affordability concerns. He’s called for a cap on interest on credit cards, which he did not mention in his speech. He’s also called for a ban on institutional investors from buying homes, which he did mention. Both are also priorities of Warren’s and the progressive left.

But in his State of the Union address, Trump laid blame solely on Democrats for affordability and argued his administration has solved the problem, as polls consistently show increased economic concern from voters. 

“You caused that problem,” the president said. “They knew their statements were a dirty, rotten lie. Their policies created the high prices, our policies are rapidly ending them.”

While overall inflation has cooled significantly from recent highs, the cost of many everyday goods remains high, especially compared to before the Covid-19 pandemic. Electricity prices have skyrocketed amid increased demand from data centers, grocery prices remain high and housing costs have remained inflated. Trump’s tariff agenda has also contributed to lingering high prices. 

Trump doubled down on issuing tariffs through other means during his address, after the Supreme Court knocked down the authority he had been using to implement them. 

The tariffs will “remain in place under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes,” he said. 

To Warren, that only provided ammunition. 

“Rather than providing relief to consumers, you are pursuing additional across-the-board tariffs through other mechanisms — opening the door to yet another wave of price hike,” she said in her letter. 

Federal Express on Monday sued the U.S. government, seeking a “full refund” of the money the shipping giant paid for tariffs unilaterally imposed last year by President Donald Trump, which the Supreme Court ruled last week were illegal.

FedEx’s suit appears to be the first filed by a major American company seeking a refund for tariffs after Friday’s Supreme Court decision.

Other companies filed lawsuits staking claims to their refunds before the high court ruled that the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal.

Those suits, whose plaintiffs include retail warehouse club giant Costco, remain pending at the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York, the same court where FedEx filed its lawsuit.

The Supreme Court, in its ruling on Friday, said the Court of International Trade has “exclusive jurisdiction” over the IEEPA tariffs.

“Plaintiffs seek for themselves a full refund from Defendants of all IEEPA duties Plaintiffs have paid to the United States,” Federal Express Corp, and its associated company, FedEx Logistics, say in the new lawsuit.

The 11-page complaint names as defendants U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which collects tariffs, its commissioner, Rodney Scott, and the U.S. government.

CNBC has requested comment on the suit from CBP and the White House.

The suit does not say how much FedEx has paid in IEEPA tariffs since Trump imposed them on most U.S. trading partners last year.

But in September, FedEx had said that it expected it would take a $1 billion hit to its earnings for the fiscal year because of U.S. trade policies, not all of which involved IEEPA duties. That dollar amount represents 16% of total earnings for the prior fiscal year.

In a note on its website, FedEx said, “While the Supreme Court did not address the issue of refunds, FedEx has taken necessary action to protect the company’s rights as an importer of record to seek duty refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.”

“At this time, however, no refund process has been established by regulators or the courts,” the company said. “We will communicate any relevant information and updates in a timely manner, and we appreciate your patience as we wait for additional guidance and clarity from the U.S. government and the courts.”