Analysts warned on Monday that there was no precedent for the surging price of oil, as the Middle East crisis deepens fears of prolonged production shut-ins and disruption to shipments through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices were on track for their biggest-ever jump in a single day on Monday, before significantly paring gains, following a fresh wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran over the weekend. Oil depots were among the targets.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery traded 12.8% higher at $104.53 per barrel on Monday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with April delivery were last seen nearly 12% higher at $101.76.

Brent futures had climbed as high as $119.5 per barrel earlier in the trading day, while WTI hit a session high of $119.48.

Neil Atkinson, former head of oil at the International Energy Agency, said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is something energy markets had never seen before. Unless something changes very soon “we are in a potentially game-changing and unprecedented energy crisis,” he told CNBC on Monday.

Countries across the oil-rich Middle East region have started to scale back crude output. Iraq and Kuwait have already begun to shut-in production, with analysts warning that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia may also be vulnerable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a sustained period.

“Though there are oil stocks around the world, the point is that if this closure of the Strait persists, those oil stocks if they are deployed will be depleted and we are going to be in a situation where, with the oil production actually shut in, in Iraq and possibly in Kuwait and maybe even in time in Saudi Arabia, that we are going to be in a crisis the likes of which we have never seen before,” Atkinson told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Asked what this could mean for oil prices, Atkinson replied: “Sorry, we are getting into the realms of educated guesswork here. I mean, there is no precedent for this. The sky is the limit.”

Typically, about 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping traffic has all but halted through this key maritime corridor since the war started.

Oil prices came off their session highs on Monday shortly after the Financial Times reported that finance ministers from G7 economies would hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the IEA.

The U.K.’s Treasury and French government confirmed to CNBC that the call would take place on Monday.

Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist at ExxonMobil, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that it had been “consensus last week, and to a certain extent still today,” that everyone but Russia had “an interest in normal traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz.”

He added the consensus had been that there was “abundant oil on the water and some strategic reserves to cover any short-term gap.” Goodspeed said he was skeptical of this view as the conflict enters its second week.

“When I think of the probability distribution of possible outcomes here, it seems to me there are many more scenarios, and more probable scenarios, in which the strait remains effectively closed harder for longer than there are scenarios in which normal traffic resumes,” Goodspeed said.

Analysts at Societe Generale, meanwhile, warned that prolonged production shut-ins from Middle East countries “materially increase” the risk of restart complications.

“The UAE is likely the next producer at risk of shutting in output, potentially within the next five to seven days,” the analysts said in a research note published Monday.

“Qatar is also vulnerable, though its oil volumes are modest relative to its LNG exposure. Saudi Arabia faces less immediate risk but shut ins would become plausible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a further two to three weeks,” they added.

— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

Congressional Democrats are demanding that the Trump administration immediately reverse a sanctions waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil as the Iran war wreaks havoc on global energy markets.

“Your recent decision to provide a 30-day waiver is dangerous, self-defeating, and indefensible,” Rep. Sam Liccardo, D-Calif., and Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., wrote in a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which was shared exclusively with CNBC. “This waiver constitutes an inexplicable act of material benefit to the enemy.”

The Treasury Department last week issued a temporary 30-day sanctions carveout to allow India to buy Russian oil, an effort to ease skyrocketing oil prices caused by the war and the traffic standstill at the Strait of Hormuz.

The oil surge comes less than eight months before the November midterm elections that could flip the House of Representatives and the Senate to Democratic control, and polls show voters are souring on President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

After the sanctions waiver was issued, however, it was reported that Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. ships, aircraft, and bases in the region. Gallego and Liccardo warned in the letter against the temporary lifting of the sanctions, which rewards Russia with a windfall as it helps to target U.S. troops in the Middle East.

“Rather than performing the necessary contingency planning that would keep India and other allies supplied with alternative sources, the Administration’s hapless approach has allowed Russia and other adversaries to profit from oil reserves previously constrained by sanctions, supporting Russian efforts to harm U.S. troops and thwart U.S. intelligence,” Gallego and Liccardo wrote in their letter. “By providing this waiver, you have signaled that the United States will reward attacks on our troops, not deter them.”

About 20% of the world’s oil and gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely impassible since the beginning of the U.S. and Israeli assault on Tehran.

Oil prices have surged in the days since the war began. U.S. crude oil topped $108 per barrel on Sunday, as did the global benchmark Brent, which rapidly approached $110 a barrel. That’s caused U.S. gasoline prices to spike, jumping to $3.44 per gallon on Sunday, according to Gasbuddy.

The price spikes come as both parties seek to win over economically anxious voters ahead of the November midterm elections that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress for Trump’s final years in office. Trump promised to lower costs, including gas prices, during his 2024 campaign — but his approval on the economy has plummeted as voters express concern about affordability.

Liccardo and Gallego, who are members of the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee, argue in their letter that the war is only making life less affordable for Americans.

“A prolonged conflict with Iran and wider military operations throughout the Middle East will only deepen the energy cost-crisis, burdening Americans to pay more at the pump, and exacerbating the affordability crisis facing too many Americans,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, millions of barrels of Russian oil are stranded at sea due to U.S. sanctions imposed as punishment for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the move to temporarily allow the sale of Russian oil into India, calling it a “pragmatic step” that diverts oil that eventually would be sold to China. He said it could help alleviate price spikes in the immediate term, until the U.S. achieves its military aims in Iran.

“We’re not helping Russia by just accelerating the sale of their oil to stop the rise of energy prices and keep European and Asian refineries in oil,” Wright said. “We’re just doing pragmatic things to get through a short period that’ll bring in an era of even lower energy prices.”

Pressed on the reports of Russian intelligence sharing, Wright said, “There have been rumors of that, we don’t know if that’s true or not.”

He added: “Russia is an expert at causing trouble around the world.”

Liccardo and Gallego asked Bessent whether he plans to continue offering waivers if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. They also asked whether the Treasury Department had advance notice of the intelligence sharing between Russia and Iran, and whether there are any conditions that would cause the waiver to be revoked.

The pair also demanded information on any emergency oil price stabilization plans the administration had before launching the assault on Iran.

“The questions below address two distinct lines of accountability. The first concerns the specific waiver decision and its immediate consequences for sanctions integrity, energy markets, and troop safety,” they wrote of the questions. “The second concerns the administration’s planning failures prior to its unauthorized military action, and the absence of coordination with allies and partners, whose cooperation is essential to maintaining American sanctions architecture, which this waiver now undermines.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil and gas prices will begin to fall when the U.S. begins to knock out Iran’s ability to hinder tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as Americans weather spiking gas prices due to the war in Iran.

“The plan is to get oil and natural gas and fertilizer and all the products from the Gulf flowing through the straits before too long,” Wright said on Fox News Sunday. “We’re massively attriting their ability to strike with missiles and drones, and that rate of attrition will increase in the coming days. So we’ll be cautious, we’ll be careful, but energy will flow soon.”

President Donald Trump was elected to a second term in the White House in part by promising to lower gas prices and defeat high inflation. He has frequently touted lower gas prices ahead of the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress for the remainder of his term.

But gas prices and oil have spiked since the war began in Iran, with vessel bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz causing the surge. About 20% of global energy supply moves through the strait.

Gas has jumped to over $3.46 per gallon on average in the U.S., according to GasBuddy. U.S. crude oil has soared to more than $91 per barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude has spiked to over $92 per barrel.

Wright said that “one large tanker has already gone through the straits with no issues at all.” Typically, roughly 100 tankers and cargo ships move through the strait every day.

Wright said the disruption would last for “weeks, certainly not months.”

“We believe this is a small price to pay to get to a world where energy prices will return back to where they were,” Wright said. “Iran will finally be defanged, and now you can see more investment, more free flow of trade, less ability to threaten energy supplies.”

When asked about potentially tapping the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce pain at the pump, Wright suggested such a move is not necessary yet. In the past, the SPR has been tapped to mitigate disruptions in oil flows.

“We’re more than happy to use [the SPR] if needed,” Wright said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “But … it’s a logistics issue, where do they need oil? They need oil at refineries in Europe and in Asia.”

Trump has also downplayed the option of tapping the SPR.

“We’ve got a lot of oil. Our country has a tremendous amount,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday. “There’s a lot of oil out there. That’ll get healed very quickly.”

WATCH: No traffic will flow through Strait of Hormuz until a resolution with Iran: Kpler’s Matt Smith

November’s midterm was always supposed to be about affordability. Then, the bombs began falling in Iran.

The expanding U.S. war in the Middle East threatens to scramble the cost-of-living narrative that has so far defined the contest for control of Congress. The election, now less than eight months away, will determine whether President Donald Trump retains his iron grip on Washington or spends his last two years in office fending off Democratic congressional majorities.

Both parties have sought to capitalize on kitchen-table issues, as Americans struggle to keep up with the rising costs of ordinary goods and services. The war in Iran now threatens to exacerbate those concerns — and Democrats are seizing on the opportunity to pillory Trump and Republicans for beginning a conflict that could make life even more expensive for ordinary Americans.

“Because there was no plan going in, I think there will be lots of things that are unforeseen consequences of this,” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview with CNBC. “I mean you saw how much gas has gone up in a day, oil futures have gone up, there are going to be a lot of knock-on effects.”

Some of those knock-on effects have already been evident. U.S. crude oil has jumped past $90 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the war broke out. The global market index Brent has skyrocketed to more than $90 per barrel. That’s caused gas prices to spike to about $3.38 per gallon, according to a national average from Gasbuddy, up more than 35 cents from the week before the war.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, was quick to point out in an interview that liquefied natural gas prices have also spiked. Though U.S. increases have been modest so far, global LNG supply has been squeezed by a shutdown in Qatar — one of the world’s top LNG-producing countries. Natural gas is the largest electricity generator in the U.S., which is critical as the booming data center industry stresses the electric grid and increases utility costs.

“I think what American families have been feeling most acutely for the past year-plus is their energy bills, their utility bills rising,” Huffman said. “A big part of the utility bill increase is that natural gas is getting more and more expensive … a lot of our effort has been pushed into LNG exports instead of strategies that would lower bills for American consumers. That problem is only more amplified by this conflict.”

But a quick operation in Iran is far from certain, and any extended conflict could create an election-year quagmire for Republicans, said Brittany Martinez, executive director at Principles First and a former aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

“If energy prices rise or markets stay volatile, affordability becomes a harder message for Republicans to carry cleanly,” Martinez said. “Republicans will argue that projecting strength abroad prevents greater instability, while Democrats will try to link any sustained price increases to foreign policy decisions. The real question is whether this turns into a prolonged conflict that voters feel in their household budgets.”

Many believe the military intervention in Iran has the potential to drag on, including Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a national security advisor in the Obama White House.

“This administration doesn’t seem to think about this at all,” Kim said when asked about a potential power vacuum keeping the U.S. in the region longer. “The intelligence community has done a whole range of assessments that very much keep me up at night, and the fact that this White House, I assume, read the same things I read and still went through with this, I just find that to be absolutely reckless.”

Complicating matters more for the GOP is that the war in Iran is unpopular. A CNN poll released March 2 found that nearly 60% of those surveyed disapproved of the U.S. taking military action in Iran. That comes as Trump’s economic approval remains underwater: A Fox News poll released March 4 found that 61% of voters disapproved of Trump’s job on the economy.

“We don’t see it as an opportunity, but I do think it’s our responsibility to tell the American people exactly the decision that Donald Trump is making,” said House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif. “He’s sending billions of our tax dollars to the Middle East for another war while he’s kicking people off of healthcare and … eliminating nutrition programs.”

Rep. Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican seeking reelection in a district Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has labeled a “toss up,” said he is not concerned the war could drown out the GOP’s affordability message. He pointed to the sprawling tax and spending bill that was signed into law last year, increased domestic energy production, and housing legislation that advanced out of the House last month as examples of things the party will use to show action on rising costs.

War in the Middle East does not necessarily preclude Republicans from continuing to try to bring prices down, he argued.

“A more fulsome conversation would be, how do we make sure that we still deliver on affordability?” Nunn said in an interview. “I think this is the absolute right spot for us to be in.”

But Trump, the “America First” president who campaigned on ending the U.S.’s foreign entanglements, risks alienating his base with his Iran offensive. Democrats see the war as evidence of what they have been telling voters about Trump all along: he does not care affordability.

“We have a president who has campaigned on ending forever wars, and he has jumped into war without justification or explanation to the American people,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “So this has been broken promise after broken promise. This has been at the expense of the needs of everyday Americans. And I do think voters will hold them accountable in November.”

President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Friday that there would be no deal to end the U.S. war against Iran without an “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” by Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points, or nearly 2%, after Trump’s demand, which he wrote on Truth Social. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6% each, and oil futures prices rose.

Trump said that after a surrender and “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

“IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)” Trump wrote.

Trump’s demand came as Iran has yet to pick a leader to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed last weekend in an airstrike at the beginning of the war by the U.S. and Israel.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, when asked by reporters later about potential future leaders of Iran, said, “I know there are a number of people that our intelligence agencies, that the United States government are looking at, but I won’t get any further.”

Trump in June made an identical demand of “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” by Iran in another social media post as he considered launching a military strike against that nation.

The futures price of the global benchmark Brent crude oil rose, breaking $90 per barrel, after Trump posted his latest demand for Iran to surrender without conditions.

Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned Friday that rising oil prices due to the war against Iran “could bring down the economies of the world.”

Al-Kaabi told The Financial Times that crude oil prices could hit as high as $150 per barrel within weeks if tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The last time oil topped $100 a barrel was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Oil prices rose on Friday morning as investors continued to assess the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy markets.

By 6:58 a.m. ET, global benchmark Brent crude futures added 4.5% to trade at $89.23 a barrel, notching a fresh 52-week high and levels not seen in nearly two years. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last seen 6.3% higher at $86.06, hitting their highest level since April 2024.

Prices dipped overnight as investors continued to assess the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply.

Crude prices are on track for their biggest weekly gain since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

The spike comes as the U.S.-Iran conflict spreads across the Middle East, disrupting energy production and bringing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, to a near standstill.

On Friday morning, the Financial Times reported that Qatar’s energy minister said the war in the Middle East could see Gulf energy exporters stop shipments within days. Saad al-Kaabi told the FT that crude prices could reach $150 a barrel in the coming weeks if oil tankers were unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices briefly dipped overnight after the U.S. issued a 30-day waiver to India — the world’s third-largest oil importer — to resume purchases of Russian oil. Washington had earlier imposed 25% “penalty” tariffs on India for buying Russian crude, which were revoked last month. The retreat in prices also came after news agency Reuters, citing an unnamed White House official, reported that the U.S. Treasury is planning to announce measures to curb energy price spikes, including potential interventions in the oil futures market.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped nearly 27 cents since in the week to Thursday to $3.25, according to data from U.S. travel organization AAA.

The conflict between Iran and the U.S. enters its seventh day on Friday. In a press conference on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. had “only just begun to fight.”

“Iran is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation,” he told reporters.

“There’s no shortage of American will here … If you think you’ve seen something, just wait. The amount of combat power that’s still flowing, that’s still coming, that we’ll be able to project over Iran is at multiples of what it currently is right now when you add up our capabilities and those of the Israeli Defense Forces.”

“Contrary to what consensus thinks, I think higher energy prices could actually be deflationary for the U.S.,” Atakan Bakiskan, chief U.S. economist at Berenberg, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

“Cuba’s next,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican and ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, after the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran.

The U.S. has imposed an oil blockade on the communist-run island nation since January, shortly after its ally and a key provider of oil, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was seized in an extraordinary U.S military operation. It has caused a worsening economic crisis and left Cuba facing its biggest test since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Now Iran, with which Cuba has a strategic partnership, is under sustained attack. “This communist dictatorship in Cuba, their days are numbered,” Graham told Fox News’s “Sunday Night in America.”

Before the Iran strikes, Trump said he wanted a “friendly takeover” of the island, without giving details. The comments, alongside the U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela, have done little to allay growing fears in Havana, experts told CNBC.

A “friendly takeover” could resemble Venezuela in the aftermath of Maduro’s removal, “where you still have an authoritarian regime in power but moving in the direction and at the speed that the US determines,” said Carlos Solar, senior research fellow, Latin American Security at RUSI, a London-based defense think tank.

Solar told CNBC by email that Cuba had lost support from Venezuela and Iran “at a moment of maximum pressure” from the Trump administration.

But he added: “What is unclear is how the US will make the Cuban regime break, forcing Havana to capitulate.”

“We are not seeing the kind of military buildup prelude to operation Absolute Resolve that eventually led to Maduro being captured in January. It could well be that the US approaches Cuba in a totally different way,” Solar said.

A spokesperson for the White House and Cuba’s embassy in London did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.

Cuba’s Foreign Affairs Ministry has called for an end to the Middle East conflict and said it “condemns in the strongest terms” the joint U.S. and Israel attack on Iran on Feb. 28.

Russia recently warned that the situation in Cuba appeared to be escalating after Cuban forces killed four people who were off its coast in a U.S.-registered speedboat.

Trump has also said Cuba’s government poses “an unusual and extraordinary threat” and pledged to impose tariffs on any country that supplies it with oil. The U.S. Treasury said late last month, however, that it would allow the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector.

The move appeared to reflect a small step to alleviate the island’s acute fuel shortage, which has forced a wave of airlines cut flights to the country. Tourism has long been a significant source of revenue for Cuba’s cash-strapped government.

Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Studies at the U.K.’s University of Nottingham, told CNBC the Trump administration’s strikes against Iran and recent comments about Cuba’s regime had increased the mood of uncertainty and anxiety in Havana.

“Cubans are increasingly concerned about how they will survive in the midst of such global chaos, and the recent violence against Iran will have done nothing to allay their fears,” Kumaraswami said by email.

“At the same time, there are indications that the US administration is negotiating with the Cuban government regarding changes to Cuba’s economy, and this is indeed mirrored by Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s current focus on economic improvement as the priority,” she added.

Kumaraswami said the “message from Cuba” had been “constant” since the communists came to power in 1959: “Survival will only be achieved through adaptation to the changing geopolitical context.”

Cuba has adopted measures to protect essential services and ration fuel supplies for key sectors. The United Nations has previously warned of a possible humanitarian “collapse” as the country’s oil supplies dwindle.

“Cuba just bought itself a window — but it’s a narrow one,” Robert Munks, head of Americas research at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC by email.

“The operation against Iran removes Cuba – temporarily – from Washington’s sights, as the US administration will be preoccupied with the Gulf campaign in the coming weeks.”

But Munks said he expected Cuba to return to the headlines, adding that the Cuban diaspora in South Florida would apply pressure and Washington has shown it is prioritizing the Western Hemisphere in its remodeled national security strategy.

Oil supertanker costs in the Middle East climbed to their highest level on record as conflict between the U.S. and Iran disrupts shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Major marine war risk providers have started to scrap cover for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf as the fallout from a sudden security shock hobbles key shipping routes in the region.

The benchmark freight rate for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China — hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day on Monday, data from LSEG showed. That marked an increase of more than 94% from Friday’s close.

Alongside a significant jump in oil and gas prices, the stratospheric rise in the cost of hauling crude oil follows the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend. The expanding conflict has resulted in the effective halt of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important oil choke points, located in the gulf between Oman and Iran.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be attacked, state media reported. The claim has since been disputed by the U.S. military’s Central Command, CENTCOM, Fox News reported.

“Charterers in the VLCC segment stepped back from the market and avoided securing vessels as multiple incidents have led to increased threat levels around the strait of Hormuz, despite the waterway not being officially closed,” Sheel Bhattacharjee, head of freight pricing in Europe at Argus Media, told CNBC by email.

Oil producers in the Middle East have not yet announced a halt to any production or loading yet, and ports in the UAE, Oman and Kuwait remain operational, Bhattacharjee said, citing market sources.

“But most shipowners were avoiding transits through the strait of Hormuz after insurers cancelled the war risk coverage for vessels in certain areas of the region,” Bhattacharjee said.

It is estimated that roughly one-third of seaborne crude oil trade moves through the strategically important waterway, alongside 19% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows and 14% of global refined products trade, according to Argus Media.

Leading maritime insurers have canceled war risk cover for vessels operating in the Middle East over recent days, amid reports of attacks on multiple ships traversing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Alongside the New York-based American Club, marine insurers including Norway’s Gard and Skuld, Britain’s NorthStandard and the London P&I Club said they were scrapping war risk cover for ships in the region.

Adrian Beciri, CEO of DUCAT Maritime, a Cyprus-based logistics firm specializing in dry bulk, said the knock-on effects of the sprawling Middle East conflict were being felt across the globe.

“We were trying to hire a dry bulk vessel to carry our typical rice food supplies to West Africa, which is around the Cape of Good Hope. You would think that is a million miles away from the conflict zone,” Beciri told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“We actually lost the ship. Someone had paid 50% more than they typically would do to carry coal from Indonesia to the west coast of India. Why did that vessel attract such a high rate? The answer is because the vessel owner was uncertain of getting cargo from the Persian Gulf area,” he continued.

“So, the consequences are far and wide, and this is potentially a double whammy. If we’re looking at the Hormuz closing and the Suez effectively being tampered with by the Houthis, this could be quite significant — much like what we saw during the Covid era and the attacks that were happening there.”

Even if oil tankers are only temporarily blocked from the Strait of Hormuz, it can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.

The Strait of Hormuz is also key for global container trade. Ports in this region, such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan, are specialized transshipment hubs that serve as intermediary points in global networks.

Shipping giants, including MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have also issued fresh guidance, seeking to prioritize safety amid a deteriorating security situation.

Oil prices have soared after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran continued on Sunday night.

Brent crude prices hit a new 52-week high on Monday, surging 9.3% to reach $79.40, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate prices also rose more than 9% to $73.10.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the “overwhelming military offensive” — which he has dubbed Operation Epic Fury — would continue until the U.S.’s objectives are achieved. Israel launched fresh strikes against both Iran and against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon late on Sunday, which came after Iran attacked military and infrastructure targets across several countries in the region.

As the U.S. continues to target Iranian air defense systems and naval capabilities, global oil supplies have come into sharp focus.

Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC on Monday that she expects oil prices to likely hold at around $80 level for some time.

Sen said that it is unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz — through which 13-15 million barrels, or 20% of global supply, of oil flows — would be closed altogether. She added that the bigger risk stems from one-off attacks on vessels passing through the area.

Sen said that the U.S. and Israel have the superior military power to ultimately neutralize Iran’s ability to completely shut off the Strait, a key shipping channel for oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait.

But single attacks on ships are more difficult to prevent. “This is something we’ve warned right throughout to our clients,” she said.

After three tankers were hit over the weekend, shippers are now being extremely cautious about going in, she added.

“That is the biggest issue right now — how do Asian refiners actually get the volumes from the Middle East?” Sen added.

She noted that Oman and certain UAE grids can bypass the Strait, while Saudi Arabia has contingency plans to move its oil through the East-West pipeline via the Red Sea.

“But even if you are able to move 5 million out through other methods, about 10 is still stuck,” she added.

Sen added that, if energy infrastructure is hit, the price of oil could hit $100.

She added that “the stakes are just too high” when it comes to potential attacks on infrastructure.