Match Details

Fixture: (8) Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima

Date: February 27, 2026

Tournament: Mexican Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Arena GNP Seguros in Acapulco, Mexico

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Outdoor Hard

Prize Money: $2,469,450

Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN

Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima preview

Frances Tiafoe has stuck to the grind this year. After a second-round exit in Brisbane, he reached the third round in Melbourne and the quarterfinals in Delray Beach. The American also competed in Dallas, but lost to Sebastian Korda in the second round.

The 28-year-old-continued to tighten the screws in Acapulco. He started his campaign with solid wins over Nuno Borges and Aleksandar Kovacevic. Tiafoe then overpowered Mattia Bellucci in the quarterfinals, 6-3, 6-4.

Meanwhile, Brandon Nakashima has made a hot and cold start to the season. After a runner-up finish in Brisbane, he reached the first round in Melbourne and the second round in Delray Beach. The American also reached the last 16 in Dallas, but lost to Taylor Fritz.

The 24-year-old started his campaign in Acapulco with excellent wins over Elias Ymer and Patrick Kypson. He then outlasted Valentin Vacherot in the quarterfinals, 2-6, 6-2, 6-3. Nakashima has only dropped one set this week.

Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima head-to-head

Tiafoe leads the head-to-head against Nakashima 5-1. He defeated the American most recently at the 2025 Men’s Claycourt Championships in Houston.

Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima odds

BetMGM sources all the odds.

Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima prediction

Tiafoe has a great chance to win his first title since 2023 (Houston). The American has been moving in the right direction this year and will be desperate to silence his critics this week.

Meanwhile, Nakashima has recovered well after disappointing runs in Dallas and Delray Beach. He was made to work hard in the quarterfinals and will need to stay at it to make it a memorable week.

Tiafoe will bring his rapid groundstrokes and energetic game to the outdoor hardcourts of Acapulco. On the other hand, Nakashima will rely on his defensive skills and match fitness on the court.

Tiafoe has dominated the head-to-head against Nakashima and seems to have found his top form this week. He is most likely to outlast his opponent and stay in the hunt for his first title since 2023.

Pick: Tiafoe to win in three sets

Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima betting tips

Tip 1: Match to have more than 20 games.

Tip 2: Tiafoe to convert more than five break points.