Good morning. Keir Starmer will today chair a meeting in Downing Street on how the government responds to the economic consequences of the Iran war, which has the potential to upend much of what the government is trying to do to improve living standards. And so he is probably not too happy about the fact that this morning he has to attend an event in the West Midlands launching Labour’s English local elections campaign.

It is a relatively low-key launch. “The Westminster press pack wasn’t invited for a full Q&A,” Politico reports. Starmer will be back in London later for his Iran war meeting.

No one expects Labour to do well in the local elections and last week Stephen Fisher, an Oxford politics professor and an elections expert who works with John Curtice on the widely admired general election exit polls, published his projections for how many seats he expects parties to win and lose in the English local elections, based on current polling and other factors. It is terrible reading for Labour.

As Fisher points out in his blog on this, his equivalent forecast for Labour losses in 2025 turned out to be reasonably accurate.

According to the extracts from his speech briefed in advance, Starmer will not be forecasting success for Labour at the local elections, but he will argue that the war in Iran means that Labour is needed more than ever. He will say:

We’re going to fight to earn every vote. Fight for our values. And fight for the country we are building together, a Britain built for all.

Because, in the context of everything that is happening in the world. Those values – that fairness we stand for – it’s never been more important.

That is the thing about the volatile world we live in now. It tests, not just our security, our strength on the world stage. It is also tests our fairness at home. Our unity.

He will also attack Reform UK and the Conservatives in particular for their initial unqualified support for President Trump’s decision to go to war.

We will protect our forces, our people, our allies in the region. But I made the decision that it is not in our national interest to commit British forces to a war, without a clear legal basis and a clear plan – and I stand by that.

It’s a question of judgement. Do not forget that the Tories and Reform would have rushed us into this. With no thought of the consequences, including for the cost of living. Utterly reckless.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.15am: Eluned Morgan, the Welsh first minister, launches Labour’s campaign for the Senedd elections.

Morning: Keir Starmer launches Labour’s campaign for the English local elections in the West Midlands.

10.30am: Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, launches Plaid’s campaign for the Senedd elections.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Afternoon: Starmer hosts a roundtable with business leaders to discuss the impact of the Iran war.

2.40pm: Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, addresses the National Education Union’s conference.

Afternoon: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, and Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, take part in a virtual meeting with G7 counterparts to discuss the economic impact of the Iran war.

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