There is a question from Jāna in Latvia:

“A question for both Shaun and Jakub: given that the Putin regime’s expressed motivation for the invasion of Ukraine has varied over time, those of us living in the region have always suspected that the true motivation is the re-establishment of the Russian Empire in yet another iteration.

How does the failure of this venture affect the likelihood of incursions into, say, the Baltic States or Finland?”

Here’s Shaun’s answer:

“Not an easy question to answer in a paragraph!

My personal view has always been that Ukraine is different in the way it sits in the Russian post-imperial psyche to almost anywhere else in the region.

Putin and other Russian nationalists see Ukrainians as “confused Russians” who need to be “re-educated” – and that is very different to the way they see Poles or Baltic nations.

Which is not to say that a revanchist Russia wouldn’t have designs on other places, but I do think the idea that ‘he will simply conquer as much as he can’ isn’t quite right.

Additionally, as you say, the failure – so far – of the maximalist goals in Ukraine hardly bodes well for successful Russian wars of conquest further west.

To my mind, what we’re more likely to see are more intense versions of the current “hybrid” tactics in Europe: attacks on infrastructure, power, cyber aimed at causing chaos, economic damage and increasing the cost of supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russia.

This seems to be much more likely than tanks rolling into Warsaw, Helsinki or Riga.”

To kick us off, I have asked our correspondent Shaun Walker what does he make of all this strong rhetoric coming from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service SVR, Vladimir Putin and his aides about nuclear weapons (10:00, 11:19, 14:54, 14:59) and what could it mean for the war.

Shaun says:

“It’s almost certainly nonsense, of course, and it seems rather desperate from the SVR, even by their recent standards of implausible press releases.

I’m not fully sure who the audience is here, but the latest follow-up to this is Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov saying Moscow ‘will inform the United States’ about the reported British and French plans (14:59).

It’s unlikely many people in Washington will believe it, of course.

But these days you never know: watch out for Donald Trump saying he ‘stopped a nuclear war’ some time soon…”

Shaun Walker

Just a reminder that Shaun Walker is the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, regularly reporting from Ukraine throughout the war.

Previously, he spent more than a decade in Moscow and is the author of “The Long Hangover: Putin’s New Russia and the Ghosts of the Past” and “The Illegals: Russia’s Most Audacious Spies and the Plot to Infiltrate the West”.

Over the weekend, we published his exclusive account detailed how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans to invade, and why most of Europe – including the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy – dismissed them, drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries.

Shaun Walker answers your questions on Ukraine in Europe Live Q&A

Jakub Krupa

Our correspondent Shaun Walker is here to answer your questions on the Russian aggression against Ukraine, four years on.

We will pick some questions and bring you his answers now. You can still post your questions below the line, at the bottom of the page.

The Russian foreign ministry has just issued a lengthy statement just now warning of risks of a direct clash between nuclear power and its potential consequences.

It said the suggestions, first carried by the Russian intelligence earlier today, suggest are “categorically unacceptable” and “highly escalatory” (10:00).

Separately, Russian news agencies Interfax and Ria are carrying a comment from Putin’s aide saying that “Kyiv’s attempts to obtain nuclear weapons will affect Russia’s position on Ukraine,” and that “Russia will inform the US about potential appearance of nuclear weapon in Ukraine.”

Remember: there is absolutely no evidence of any of that happening.

Putin orders security services to step up protection of military leaders after recent assassinations

Pjotr Sauer

Russian affairs reporter

Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered the country’s security services to strengthen protection for senior military figures and other officials following a string of assassination attempts targeting army personnel.

Speaking at a meeting with Russia’s federal security agencies, Putin said the number of “terrorist attacks in Russia has increased” and instructed officials to take what he described as “serious additional measures” to reinforce the state border.

His remarks came a day after a man detonated an explosive device next to a police patrol car in central Moscow, killing an officer as well as himself. Putin claimed the attacker had been recruited online, handed an explosive device and then “remotely detonated”.

Ukraine has targeted at least three Russian generals in the Moscow region over the past year, though it remains unclear whether Kyiv had any connection to Monday’s blast.

Adopting a combative tone, Putin accused Ukraine – with alleged backing from western intelligence agencies – of attempting to derail peace efforts between the two countries, including through threats against Russian energy infrastructure.

The Russian leader also repeated unsubstantiated claims by Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, which has accused Britain and France of preparing to arm Kyiv with a nuclear device (10:00).

Jakub Krupa

Final reminder: our correspondent Shaun Walker will be joining us here on Europe Live to answer your questions on Ukraine at 2pm UK (3pm CET).

Post your questions to him in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

Picture Editor, News

On the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, we look back on some of the powerful photojournalism documenting the conflict.

More:

Four years into Ukraine invasion, Russia’s gains are small, while Kyiv remains resilient

Dan Sabbagh

Defence and security editor

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth grim year, has already gone on longer than the entire fight on the eastern front in the second world war.

The Soviets marched from the gates of Leningrad to Berlin in a little over 15 months in 1944-45; today the Russian rate of gain in Pokrovsk in Ukraine is 70 metres a day, in Kupiansk, 23 metres, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The gains are trivial, given Ukraine’s size, amounting to 1,865 sq miles during 2025 (about 0.8% of the country) – so the idea touted by the Russians, sometimes accepted by a credulous White House, that Ukraine is suffering a slow-motion defeat, is not accurate.

In reality, even allowing for the fact that hundreds of thousands of homes are without electricity, heating and water after Russian bombing, Ukraine is clarifying its strategy and pushing back with modest success.

…

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Russia continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw its military from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and the remainder of the Donetsk (the latest suggestion seems to be the creation of a demilitarised zone, though Russia wants to patrol it).

Earlier this month, a Nato intelligence official estimated that they did not believe Russia could capture the region “anytime within the next 18 months” – though it is so urbanised that it could take far longer, at a cost of 600,000 Russian casualties or more.

The diplomatic misdirection demonstrates how poorly Russia’s military is performing. Last week, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, became the latest Kremlin official to refer to understandings agreed in Anchorage, a claim that at the August summit in Alaska US president Donald Trump had agreed with Vladimir Putin that Ukraine should be made to hand over the rest of Donetsk without a fight.

But if Trump has flirted with the idea at times, it is not a position the US has sought to enforce amid Ukrainian and European objections.

Read in full:

Reminder: Q&A with Shaun Walker on Ukraine at 2pm UK, 3pm Europe

Jakub Krupa

Just a reminder that we will have our correspondent Shaun Walker join me here at 2pm UK (3pm Europe) to answer your questions on Ukraine.

Make sure you post yours in the comments section at the bottom of the page, which we are actively monitoring to pick the most interesting questions.

Ukrainian soldiers suffering from PTSD, depression and anxiety are sent to the Forest Glade – Ukraine’s first center for the treatment of psychological trauma – before returning to the frontline.

After three years in Russian captivity following the battle for Mariupol, 25-year-old Kyrylo Chuvak spends three weeks at the centre outside Kyiv, a brief opportunity for rehabilitation.

Hidden in the pines near the capital city, this modest building offers soldiers psychological therapy as well as tango, archery, guided breathing, medieval games, and quiet conversations over tea.

After four years of war, and waning international attention, the battle is not only on the frontline but in the psyche.

Watch the documentary:

Germany’s Friedrich Merz is speaking next, with pre-recorded remarks, as he is attending a state ceremony in Berlin honouring the former Bundestag president, Rita Süssmuth.

He says Germany’s support remains “iron clad” and says:

“So we must be very clear this war will only end when Putin realises that he cannot win.”

He says “we must increase pressure on Russia” and “dry up Moscow’s war funding.”

He states:

“Moscow is not as strong as it would like the world to think. Russia is not winning.”

The leaders will hear from Nato’s Mark Rutte next, but it seems that’s where the public part of the event ends and they will continue behind the closed doors.