I didn’t enter this week expecting to preview two Pirates games in the span of 72 hours, but the Bucs have forced my hand for Friday afternoon’s home opener against Baltimore. It will be the big-league debut of shortstop and MLB No. 1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin. And with the very solid Mitch Keller on the mound, I like the Bucs. Bit of an unusual first pitch time of 4:12. Why not just 4:05 or 4:10?  Apparently, it’s a fairly recent tradition in the home opener as a nod to Pittsburgh’s 412 area code. Cool.

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On March 3 in this space, I looked at National League Rookie of the Year futures, and Griffin was the +280 favorite as the 19-year-old had gotten off to a strong start power-wise in the Grapefruit League. But he cooled off considerably, finishing the spring hitting just .171 with a .268 on-base percentage and 13 strikeouts but also four homers and nine RBI in 41 at-bats.

Griffin’s NL ROY odds generally rose to around +500 when he was reassigned to minor league camp on March 21, with Mets righty Nolan McLean (my preseason pick) sliding into the +280 favored spot. But Griffin is right back atop the DraftKings board with this news at +240, ahead of the Reds’ Sal Stewart (+350), Cardinals’ JJ Wetherholt (+450) and McLean (+600).

There was some thought that the Bucs sent Griffin down simply to delay his service-time clock, but calling him up this early will go ahead and start it. The 6-foot-3, 222-pounder started the season at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he had seven hits in his 16 at-bats (.438 AVG, 1.196 OPS) with three stolen bases. The Pirates and Griffin already are negotiating on a long-term deal to buy out some arbitration years and perhaps a year or two of free agency. Reports? Nine years at a max of $140 million. 

Why do this now? Through six games, Pittsburgh shortstops (Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales) have a .546 OPS, 17th in MLB, and only the White Sox (-3) have been worse than the Pirates (-2) in FanGraphs’ defensive runs saved category. If Griffin, who also projects as a Gold Glove-caliber defender, remains with the team the rest of the season, the Bucs would be eligible to receive a draft pick through the Prospect Promotion Incentive as part of the most recent CBA. 

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The Mariners set a bit of a recent financial precedent by signing top prospect Colt Emerson to an eight-year, $95 million extension this week. That base salary was the largest ever given to a player with zero service time, and the 20-year-old shortstop hasn’t been called up yet.

As for tonight, Griffin’s first big-league at-bat will come against solid Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish. He was a rising star in 2023 before injuries derailed his 2024-25 campaigns for the most part, although he was still good in limited action. Bradish allowed two earned and two hits over 4.2 innings in losing his 2026 opener to a bad Minnesota team.

It’s somewhat ironic Griffin is debuting vs. the Orioles because their star shortstop, Gunnar Henderson, was the consensus No. 1 overall prospect entering 2022 and has largely lived up to that. What did Henderson do at the plate in his big-league debut? He was 2-for-4 with a solo homer on Aug. 31, 2022, in Cleveland.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Griffin with 0.64 hits Thursday, second-lowest among projected Pirates starters. DraftKings has him priced -208 for Over 0.5 hits (that’s a crazy price, and I might have to look at +155 for Under). For the season, FanGraphs projects him at .261 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, 118 strikeouts and 22 stolen bases. Those are NL ROY-caliber numbers. 

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While the Orioles are probably the better team, I do like Pittsburgh today with all the excitement and Keller on the hill. He got a criminal amount of run support last season (like Paul Skenes) and had 15 losses despite decent numbers. His home career splits are significantly better than away. 

Keller dominated his 2026 opener at the Mets, with six shutout innings and three hits allowed, but yet again got no help from his offense in a no-decision. Keller is 1-1 with a 0.69 ERA in 13 career innings vs. Baltimore with 14 strikeouts to just one walk. New Oriole Pete Alonso can’t hit him a lick at 1-for-15 with five Ks.

Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-160). I’ll not turn down when I think a team that should be a slight favorite gets +1.5 at home. The model has the Orioles 4.4-4.3, and I do expect a lower-scoring game. Check out other expert picks in the daily newsletter.