The province’s iconic Northern cod stock appears to be making a comeback.

The stock, running from just north of Makkovik to Cape St. Mary’s, is in the “healthy zone” according to the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

Research scientist Paul Regular says there’s an estimated 540,000 metric tonnes of spawning stock biomass — the weight of mature fish — in the Northern cod zone.

That’s up from 420,000 metric tonnes in 2024. 

Regular points to the increased availability of capelin, improved ecosystem conditions and a decline in natural mortality as reasons why.

“When capelin increase, it’s better for cod foraging conditions and we see associated with that … some reductions in overall natural mortality for cod as well — so that’s losses due to natural causes — and capelin availability is a player in that.”

Last year’s Canadian commercial cod quota was 38,000 tonnes.

‘Stars are aligning’

Alberto Wareham, president and CEO of Icewater Seafoods, says the assessment should give the fisheries minister comfort to increase the total allowable catch.

“There was almost no negativity in this assessment, all the stars are aligning for cod so there should be an increase coming,” he said.

Currently Icewater employs 280 people in Arnold’s Cove.

Wareham says from July 1 to early September last year, they only had enough cod from the inshore and midshore fisheries to keep the plant running at full capacity for five weeks.

An increase in quota could extend that.

“We have a 10-month operating plan but there’s a lot of opportunity between July and December to buy and produce more cod.”

Fish, Food & Allied Workers-Unifor is also pleased with the results of the latest stock assessment.

“Harvesters have been reporting strong signs of rebuilding for a number of years, and it is important that the science reflects what is being seen on the water,” president Dwan Street said in a media release.

Designation ‘overly optimistic,’ advocacy group says

Oceana Canada, though, thinks it’s too soon to be talking about a full recovery of Northern cod.

In a release, the conservation organization said that scientists and conservationists “warn that the designation is overly optimistic and should not be interpreted as a full recovery or used to justify increased fishing pressure.”

“The goal of cod management must be clear: rebuilding to abundant levels that can support a resilient ecosystem and a viable, thriving fishery,” Oceana fishery scientist Rebecca Schijns said.

“We’ve seen this before for cod — optimism racing ahead of evidence, quotas rising too fast, and a stock pushed back toward depletion.”