The Kansas City Chiefs are running out of chances.
If the Chiefs don’t win out over their last five games, which starts on Sunday with a tough matchup against the surging Houston Texans, we very well could be looking at an NFL post-season that will not include Patrick Mahomes.
And while Sunday’s primetime matchup against Houston isn’t mathematically a must-win for Kansas City, it sure feels like one.
Per The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the 6-6 Chiefs enter Week 14 with a 37 per cent chance to make the playoffs. A win over the Texans and that number jumps up to 51 per cent.
But a loss would take their chances all the way down to 11 per cent, essentially meaning they’d need to win out and get some help along the way.
It’s hard to fathom a playoff picture that doesn’t include Mahomes and the Chiefs, but so far this season, they have yet to prove they belong.
Ill-timed penalties, dropped passes and blown fourth-quarter leads have plagued the three-time defending AFC champions all season long, and it’s the reason they currently have their backs up against the wall.
“We just have to execute at a higher level. We’ve done a lot of good things but we’ve made a lot of mistakes that we haven’t been able to overcome,” Mahomes said this week. “At the end of the day, you have to go prove it. You have to prove it on game day.”
Their first chance to prove it won’t be an easy one, as they face a 7-5 Texans team that has won four straight games and is suddenly right in the mix for not only a wild-card spot, but an AFC South title.
Houston also sports the top defence in the league by a number of different metrics, and will be no easy opponent for the Chiefs to overcome. Especially when you consider that the Chiefs will be without three of their regular starters on the offensive line.
The Chiefs have earned the right to never be counted out until they are officially eliminated, but that could become much closer to being a reality if they don’t pull through on Sunday.
Here are some other key storylines to keep an eye on in Week 14:
NFC North driver’s seat up for grabs in Green Bay
If the Chiefs are one of the biggest disappointments of the season, then the Chicago Bears would be the opposite.
Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, the entire culture in Chicago has changed in less than a full season.
Before the season started, even a playoff appearance would’ve been seen as a major success for Johnson and the Bears in Year 1. But as we enter Week 14, the goalposts have moved for Chicago.
At 9-3 after winning their past five games, the Bears head to Green Bay on Sunday as the No. 1 seed in the NFC with their sights set on a potential first-round bye.
It’s hard not to see the Bears as a real threat after what they did to the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday, and with two games against the Packers over the next three weeks, they have a real chance to take control of the NFC North.
But the 8-3-1 Packers have beaten the Bears 11 of the past 12 times the division rivals have squared off, and are on a three-game winning streak of their own.
If Johnson really wants to leave no doubt about his blossoming new regime in Chicago, beating the Packers at Lambeau Field this weekend would be a good place to start.
Otherwise, it will be the Packers who move into the NFC North driver’s seat.
Bengals head to Buffalo with renewed hope
The 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals head into Week 14 feeling much better than the average 4-8 team should feel.
One major reason for those good vibes is the return of franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, who reemerged last week after a lengthy injury absence and led the Bengals to a key divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens.
The other reason? At 4-8, the Bengals are somehow still very much alive in the race for an AFC North title and a home playoff game.
That is thanks in large part to the struggles of both the Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers, who both sit at 6-6 and just two games up on the Bengals.
But the margin for error is basically non-existent for the Bengals thanks to their poor start, and it begins with a tough trip to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday.
The Bills are coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season last week in Pittsburgh, when they rushed for a season-high 249 rushing yards.
But Buffalo will be without a number of key defenders, including edge rusher Joey Bosa, so Burrow and co. should be able to put up some points.
Whether it will be enough to keep up with Josh Allen against a poor Bengals defence is the real question.
Ravens vs. Steelers in desperation bowl
There is always a lot on the line when the Steelers and Ravens meet up, but this Sunday feels extra important.
The Steelers were booed by their home fans in last week’s loss to the Bills, and even former Pittsburgh legends are starting to wonder if it’s finally time to move on from long-time head coach Mike Tomlin.
Meanwhile, the Ravens and Lamar Jackson looked inept on offence last week against the Bengals in a disappointing loss on their home turf.
Despite it all, the two teams enter Sunday’s matchup at 6-6 and tied for the AFC North lead. Whichever team wins will not only take control of the division, but also quiet some of the noise for at least a week.
The loser, on the other hand, will have to face the full wrath of an already frustrated fanbase.
Game to watch: Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Sticking with the theme of key divisional matchups, how about a battle for first in the AFC South?
The 8-4 Jaguars host the 8-4 Colts on Sunday in the first of two remaining matchups between the two clubs.
And it’s a game between two teams trending in opposite directions.
The Jags have won three straight games, while the Colts have lost three of their past four, only to see their once comfortable division lead disappear.
Another factor working against Indianapolis is the fact that it hasn’t won a game in Jacksonville since 2014.
With a brutal schedule remaining for the Colts this season, snapping that streak this weekend could be the key to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Forrest’s favourites (Season record: 19-17 — All odds courtesy of BetMGM):
Bengals @ Bills — Pick: Bengals +5: With the Bills missing a number of key defenders, the Bengals should be able to do enough to keep it within a field goal at the very least.
Bears @ Packers — Pick: Under 44.5: On a cold day at Lambeau, featuring two teams that like to run the ball, don’t expect a shootout.
Texans @ Chiefs — Pick: Texans +3.5: With all the injuries to the Chiefs’ offensive line, this Houston defence is going to cause a lot of issues for Mahomes.
Full Week 14 schedule (All times ET)
Thursday, Dec. 4
Detroit 44, Dallas 30
Sunday, Dec. 7
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.
Miami at NY Jets, 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1 p.m.
Seattle at Atlanta, 1 p.m.
Tennessee at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Washington at Minnesota, 1 p.m.
Chicago at Green Bay, 1 p.m.
Denver at Las Vegas, 4:05 p.m.
LA Rams at Arizona, 4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati at Buffalo, 4:25 p.m.
Houston at Kansas City, 8:20 p.m.
Monday, Dec. 8
Philadelphia at LA Chargers, 8:15 p.m.
BYES: Carolina, New England, NY Giants, San Francisco
