Canada and Alberta used to be global leaders in cutting emissions of methane, which is a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent at trapping heat than carbon dioxide and is responsible for a third of all global warming.

But over the past few years, reductions have slowed as oil and gas companies held off on making the necessary technology improvements, partly because they were waiting on new government regulations, experts say.

On Wednesday, as part of the wide-ranging Canada-Alberta memorandum of understanding on energy policy and a new oil pipeline, the two sides announced an agreement-in-principle on new methane rules and targets. It could speed up methane reductions again, experts say, but some questions remain.

What’s new in the Canada-Alberta deal?

The new agreement-in-principle gives Alberta a pathway to apply its own methane regulations rather than the federal government’s, as long as they are equivalent in stringency to federal standards.

“It’s important that Canada have cohesive, functional national regulation. If that has to be accomplished through equivalency agreements with different provinces, that’s OK,” Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, said, “as long as those equivalency agreements are transparent and there’s actually a tracking against agreed metrics.”

As part of the deal, Alberta will have to commit to third-party independent verification of its emissions. This is significant because outside studies have repeatedly shown that far more methane is being emitted than is reported in Alberta’s official statistics.

Alberta, which relies on industry-reported estimates, says it has reduced methane emissions 52 per cent below 2014 levels as of 2023. But the federal government — which uses similar data but also combines it with independent research and remote sensing data from aircraft and satellites — says emissions are down only 35 per cent.

Amanda Bryant, the Calgary-based oil and gas program manager at the Pembina Institute, which researches industrial decarbonization, said she wants to see Alberta “moving beyond the kind of traditional estimation methods and toward more actual measurement of emissions to make sure we’re really getting a comprehensive and accurate picture of emissions.”

She said she expects that the third-party verification requirement will improve the measurements, making it easier to tell if the regulations are working.

How is methane being emitted?

Methane, which is the main part of fossil fuel natural gas, essentially leaks into the atmosphere from pieces of equipment at oil and gas sites — pipes, valves and storage tanks.

Cutting methane means tightening those valves and plugging leaks in equipment. It sounds like a relatively mundane problem, but the challenge is figuring out where the methane is coming from in the first place because it’s a colourless, odourless gas.

Massive technological advances have made this easier in recent years. Methane is now being detected by cameras on the ground, sensors on aircraft and even radar-like systems on satellites in space.

Alberta brought in its first rules in 2015, leading to significant reductions in methane emissions and adoption of new technologies. But reductions in emissions have stalled since 2023, and experts say it’s likely because Alberta methane regulations have not kept pace with the latest technological advances and need to be updated.

“[Alberta] was falling behind other jurisdictions, and it really was sort of in wait-and-see mode. So there was a clear stagnation both in terms of policy and in terms of emissions reductions,” Bryant said.

Pembina’s analysis points to two big culprits that need more scrutiny. The first is facilities that vent methane gas produced during oil and gas extraction directly into the atmosphere, often over the province’s limits. Bryant said Alberta should phase out that routine venting by 2030.

Pneumatic controllers and pumps driven by natural gas also leak methane, sometimes continuously. These are automated devices that are used widely in the gas industry to control things like pressure and liquid levels in equipment.

Bryant said Alberta should phase out these devices in favour of controllers that run on electricity and compressed air, which don’t come with emissions.

The other major sources of methane are agriculture — the belching of cattle — and decomposing waste in landfills, which are being tackled through different climate regulations.

What’s the new target?

The agreement with Ottawa also sets a new, slightly weaker target for Alberta. The federal government originally set a target of reducing methane by 75 per cent (from 2012 levels) by 2030. The new deal gives Alberta five more years, until 2035, to achieve the same target. 

According to Pembina’s analysis, this delay will lead to 1.9 million tonnes more methane emissions, which is about the same as the emissions from 12 million cars over the course of one year — half of all the cars on Canada’s roads.

But trying to bring together the federal and Alberta governments still has benefits, even if it means making such a concession.

“The benefit of the equivalency process is that it creates the possibility for the provinces to co-operate…. The province can develop its own approach. The provincial regulator can be in charge of implementing that approach,” Bryant said.

“As inelegant as that process is, it nevertheless allows for progress. Instead of the province having to be obstructionist and fight the federal government on the issue, it gives them the prerogative to do it their own way.”

The detailed methane regulations will be posted for public comment later this year and are expected to be finalized by the end of 2026.