March Madness Sweet 16 set: Picks, matchups and what to watch after wild opening weekend
The Sweet 16 is set after a wild first weekend of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. If you wanted chalk, you got a whole lot of it. If you wanted a shocking upset, you got it, thanks to No. 9 seed Iowa stunning defending champion Florida. If you wanted thrilling buzzer-beaters? You got multiple orders, thanks to St. John’s point guard Dylan Darling, who delivered the game-winner to beat Kansas on Sunday to send the Red Storm to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999, and an all-time, Nebraska-Vanderbilt classic, punctuated by Tyler Tanner’s heave that was halfway down until it wasn’t. If you craved high-quality basketball, the last four days answered the call, outside of the first 30 minutes of the St. John’s-Kansas game, which could aptly be described as a football game held on the hardwood.
The second weekend has a high bar to cross because the first weekend was epic.
Let’s get into these games because boy, there are some doozies on tap. Here is an early scouting report and predictions for each Sweet 16 game.
EAST REGION
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s
Are you ready for a brawl?
Duke’s second-round game against TCU could serve as a terrific prep for St. John’s because a lot of the same principles will apply. Like TCU, St. John’s is elite at dominating the paint, scoring points off turnovers and turning offensive rebounds into buckets. Duke coughed up 17 giveaways against TCU, which should have Pitino salivating.
St. John’s is going to unleash the hounds on freshman Cayden Boozer. He passed the TCU midterm, but the St. John’s heat is different. Boozer will have a size advantage on Dylan Darling, so if the press comes, mixing in some aggressive drives to the cup could be a good way to get Darling to hesitate before getting all the way up in his business.
Calling this game a fistfight in the paint is an understatement. Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell against Cameron Boozer, Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown will be hand-to-hand combat for every mid-post backdown and every rebound.
The genius of Pitino is that the Hall of Famer makes you play the game his way. Duke has had lots of success shrinking the game, limiting easy shots in transition and squeezing the life out of you. Duke got Michigan to play a 62-possession game in late February. If it can do that against St. John’s, the Red Storm may not have quite enough juice from its halfcourt offense to survive. But that’s easier said than done against Pitino. St. John’s has been dragged into a game of fewer than 66 possessions just six times all year.
Duke can guard St. John’s really well. St. John’s can guard Duke really well. So the margin for error is slim on each side.
If half-court points are going to be hard to come by, St. John’s needs both of its old reliables to show up: second-chance points and takeaways into touchdowns. They’ll get some pick-6s. They will not get enough second-chance points. Boozer is too dominant on the boards.
The pick: Duke
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn
Tarris Reed Jr. is not on Zach Edey’s level, but I wonder if Michigan State could pull out its old game plan from the Edey days for this one. Like Purdue, UConn runs all these dangerous, flowery actions often as a disguise to create leverage for its big man (Reed in this instance) to dominate on the low block without a help defender in the same zip code.
Michigan State might be fine with that. Carson Cooper is one of the best 5-man defenders in college basketball. He’s strong, mobile and smart after spending four years in the Michigan State program. The Spartans could switch everything on the perimeter — usually the best way to handle UConn’s intricate offense — and rely on Cooper to hold up against Reed in a one-on-one tussle.
If Cooper is winning his fair share of battles inside and Michigan State can force UConn into playing late-clock basketball, it’s a win. The Huskies cannot beat Michigan State without 3s dropping against a Spartans defense that loads the paint, cuts off driving lanes and sprints back out to contest 3s. The problem? UConn just hasn’t shot the basketball all that well in a while. This is a very dangerous 3-point shooting team on paper, but UConn has made double-digit treys just once in the past nine games.
It might need nine or 10 to get on the right side of this one, and it will also need Silas Demary Jr. to play like an All-Big East defender against Jeremy Fears Jr., who can get into the paint at will and could build a tent at the free-throw line against a UConn defense that fouls a ton.
Michigan State will win this game if it plays clean. That’s been an issue at times, though. The Spartans have a 17% turnover rate against top-50 teams, and this UConn defense is aggressive, handsy and will try to heat up the supporting cast.
The pick: UConn
SOUTH REGION
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska
These teams have played twice. Iowa won at home in a 57-52 rockfight. Nebraska returned the favor by winning at home, 84-75 in overtime, in another to-the-death brawl.
There are no secrets in the rubber match. Nebraska’s no-middle defense has given Iowa real problems both times. The Hawkeyes turned it over 20% of the time in Game 1 and 26% of the time in Game 2. That can’t happen in Round 3.
Iowa has the best player on the floor in Bennett Stirtz and can hurt Nebraska on the glass, but the Huskers get the nod because of this pick-and-roll defense. You have to be able to guard ball screens effectively to shut down Iowa, and Nebraska has been an elite pick-and-roll defense, rating in the 99th percentile nationally, per Synergy.
The pick: Nebraska
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois
This is the ultimate strength-on-strength clash. Illinois uses relentless offensive rebounding to tilt the shot-volume edge in its direction. Similarly, Houston uses a massive turnover delta to lean the shot-volume edge in its direction.
Houston has had 320 more scoring chances than its opponents this year. That ranks eighth-best nationally, per CBB Analytics. Illinois has had 316 more scoring chances than its opponents. That ranks ninth-best.
Something has to give in this one, and the grappling for rebounds will be eerily similar to a UFC fight.
On paper, Illinois has some real schematic edges. Potential lottery pick Keaton Wagler is all of 6-feet-6 and has made strong decisions all year. His height helps him see over the top of traps, which Houston will bring religiously. High-processing big men are also usually required to create good shots against Houston’s aggressive defense. Illinois has them in David Mirkovic (16.9 assist rate) and Tomislav Ivisic (11.2 assist rate). Illinois will also have a dangerous shooter on the back side of the floor in Jake Davis or Ben Humrichous, who have both made 50+ treys at a 36% and 41% clip, respectively.
That type of spacing is what has helped Texas Tech give Houston issues. Illinois has the personnel to replicate it.
Illinois has avenues to create good shots, and when it misses, the Illini will hammer the offensive glass, which is the one area where Houston’s defense can be vulnerable.
But Illinois can’t win this one if it doesn’t guard. Houston’s backcourt creates problems for the Illini because they make the tough shots that Brad Underwood tries to coax. Kingston Flemings averages 5.8 points per game on pull-up jumpers. That ranks 25th-best — out of over 2,100 qualifying players — in the country. Fellow guard Milos Uzan also owns a feathery floater, and you know Emanuel Sharp is a dynamic 3-point assassin. Houston’s depth is much-improved, too. Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty are giving Houston more punch off the bench.
Chris Cenac versus Mirkovic feels like the swing factor. When Houston’s five-star freshman forward plays well, the Cougars feel unbeatable. Illinois will do its best to blanket the perimeter, funnel everything inside the paint and live with Cenac jumpers. He has to make open shots, defend Mirkovic without fouling and clean up everything on the defensive backboards.
This has the makings of a whale of a game because both teams pose real problems for each other. This game is effectively a home game for Houston, but Illinois gets the early lean because it has at least seven reliable scorers and takes high-quality shots. Comparatively, far too many Houston games are littered with tough shots and only three truly reliable offensive threats. Houston’s role players have to play great to pull this one off.
The pick: Illinois
WEST REGION
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas
There are a ton of future NBA players going toe-to-toe in this one. Arizona is absolutely going to get Arkansas’ best shot. The Razorbacks got up to play Duke, Michigan State and Houston, so they will be raring to go for this one against potentially the best team in the country.
Schematically, Arizona is built to give Arkansas some problems. Arkansas’ transition defense rates are in the 26th percentile nationally. It’s not a strength. That’s a problem against a Tommy Lloyd outfit that scores over 15 fastbreak points per game, which rates in the 97th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics. Arkansas’ pick-and-roll defense also leaves a ton to be desired (33rd percentile nationally). Arizona counters with a pick-and-roll offense that rates in the 84th percentile. Arkansas is also mediocre on the boards, where Arizona is dominant.
But one team has Darius Acuff Jr., and the other team does not. Acuff has been a brilliant, problem-solving bucket, but this may be his toughest test. Arizona wing Ivan Kharchenkov is a stud perimeter defender, and big man Motiejus Krivas is one of the top shot-blockers in college basketball. Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries will also get a shot at slowing Acuff down. Lloyd will throw grown men at him for all 40 minutes.
It’s going to be a war. Acuff is single-handedly good enough to shred even the best Arizona defenders, and this supporting cast can hoop. Meleek Thomas, Billy Richmond, Trevon Brazile and Malique Ewin have all dropped 20 in a game. Ewin, specifically, feels like a major X-factor. Arizona will let you get to that short-roll game in pick-and-rolls. Ewin has to play strong, finish through contact and show up on the defensive end. Arkansas needs him desperately, especially if fellow big man Nick Pringle is still bothered by a pesky hamstring injury.
What lessons did Arkansas learn from the Florida game, where it got obliterated by 38 points? Arizona does a lot of the things that Florida does well, just better. Arkansas has to be scrappier, tougher and up to the fight against this enormous Arizona team that brings its lunch pail to work every day.
The talent is not drastically different, but I’ll go with the deeper team for an up-tempo game. Arizona has eight guys it can trust right now. Arkansas is at six.
The pick: Arizona
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas
This is a brutal matchup for Texas on paper. The Longhorns use a heavy dose of drop coverage against pick-and-rolls. That is probably the worst coverage to play against the Braden Smith-Trey Kaufman-Renn ball-screen game. Smith is still shooting a sizzling 52% on pull-up 2s, even amidst a bit of a cold shooting patch down the stretch. Smith would also be able to access the short-roll game with Kaufman-Renn against Texas’ primary coverage. Kaufman-Renn could get to his float game every single time if he wants it.
This Texas defense ranks 343rd nationally against top-50 competition for a reason. Matt Painter should be able to find more than a few cracks in this armor.
But the Longhorns also have some stuff for Purdue. Dailyn Swain is an outstanding driver, and Purdue doesn’t have a good matchup for him at all. Texas has lived primarily at the rim, where Purdue’s defense is good but not great. Oscar Cluff and Kaufman-Renn are bigger bodies, but neither serves as an elite rim protector.
Purdue will very likely load up the paint, show multiple bodies to Swain’s driving lanes and force the Longhorns to go over the top to win. Texas has hit double-digit treys in just five games against high-major competition. It needs that type of shooting performance to loosen Purdue’s half-court defense up.
I just don’t know what Texas can take away from Purdue. It doesn’t force turnovers. It doesn’t defend without fouling. It will struggle to guard these pick-and-rolls.
If this is just a shot-for-shot game, give me Purdue. Texas’ offense is really, really good and can exploit Purdue’s lack of tip-top athleticism. But Purdue’s offense is No. 1 in the land for a reason.
The pick: Purdue
MIDWEST REGION
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
If Michigan is going to get beaten before the Final Four, this is the spot. This matchup will require Alabama to aggressively tilt the scales in its favor with a barrage of 3-pointers to beat Michigan, and the Crimson Tide is the best in the business at it. Alabama just rained 19 3-pointers against Texas Tech. It may need at least 15 triples to hang with Michigan because the Wolverines can be so dominant in the paint.
Alabama has struggled with the most physical teams on its slate. It got dump-trucked by teams like Arizona and Florida because it couldn’t hold serve on the boards. Alabama got out-rebounded by 20 by Arizona. Florida was +11 on the glass against the Tide. Purdue out-rebounded Alabama by 24. Michigan will look to do the exact same thing.
I just don’t know how Alabama defends Michigan. Aday Mara is so much bigger than Aiden Sherrell. Morez Johnson is so much stronger than both London Jemison and Taylor Bol Bowen. Amari Allen is a good wing, but Yaxel Lendeborg is just a way better player right now. Michigan also has hordes of defenders that it can throw at Alabama star Labaron Philon.
Michigan should dominate the boards, dominate the paint and just hope and pray it doesn’t catch Alabama on a day when it goes nuts from downtown. Alabama didn’t miss Aden Holloway in the first weekend, but it’d miss him in this one if he can’t play. Without making at least eight more 3-pointers than Michigan, it’s hard to find pathways for Alabama to win this one. But it’s entirely possible because Alabama may have the three best shooters on the floor at all times.
The pick: Michigan
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Joshua Jefferson’s status does not sound ideal in the lead-up to this one. The Iowa State All-American forward is slated for an MRI on Monday on his badly sprained ankle. If he can’t play, Tennessee is very live to pull this one off if it can avoid losing its mind on offense for significant stretches. There are moments when Tennessee can just kick the ball all over the floor. It had the second-highest turnover rate in SEC play this year at 17%. If Jefferson can’t go, points would be at a premium again, Iowa State would depend heavily on its defense to take the ball away from Tennessee and get some free buckets.
This one is a showdown of two of the best gamers at the point guard spot. Tamin Lipsey isn’t the most talented dude in the world, but he’s squeezed every ounce out of his God-given gifts. You can say the same thing about the brilliant Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who is on this stage for the second year in a row. Gillespie and Lipsey will do anything to win, and that’s infectious throughout the roster.
The Milan Momcilovic-versus-Nate Ament matchup would also be especially fascinating at the wing. Momcilovic is a net-shredder, and Ament has gotten better and better as the season has progressed.
But this game is won or lost on the boards. All seven of Iowa State’s losses have come on nights when its defense gives up a 31% or higher offensive rebound rate. Tennessee is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. Tennessee could lean on some double-big lineups to put Iowa State in a world of hurt on the glass.
Without Jefferson, Tennessee would have two of the best three players on the floor. As long as it doesn’t turn it over too much, Tennessee could dictate this game for all 40 minutes.
The pick: Tennessee