There will undoubtedly be 2026 March Madness upsets in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. The hard part is picking out which team will have an early exit from the 2026 March Madness bracket. In 15 of the last 17 NCAA Tournaments, at least one team seeded fourth or higher lost an opening-round game, but last year was one of the two seasons in which it didn’t happen. Should any of the No. 4 seeds like Alabama, Kansas, Nebraska and Arkansas be on upset alert when making 2026 NCAA Tournament picks?

The very top of the 2026 NCAA bracket isn’t safe either, as in two of the last seven NCAA Tournaments, a No. 1 seed lost its opener. You’d need a bold 2026 March Madness bracket strategy to pick against a top seed in the first round, but adding other 2026 March Madness upset picks throughout can give your bracket plenty of upside. Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

There’s no reason to rely on luck when there’s proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)

One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. Saint Louis was upset in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, falling to Dayton, 70-69. Otherwise, it likely would have been in a game that avoids playing a No. 1 seed in Round 2. Saint Louis (28-5) went two-and-a-half months without a loss, winning 18 straight at one point while opening the season at 24-1. The Billikens have the No. 11 scoring offense at 86.4 points per game, with the third-best effective field goal percentage (59.7%) in the nation.

Meanwhile, Georgia ranks 55th in effective field goal shooting. The Bulldogs can score as well, ranking third at 89.8 points per game, but the rank differentials between the two teams showcase how Saint Louis is significantly more efficient. The Billikens are second in the country in two-point shooting percentage and Georgia ranks 302nd in scoring defense, leading the model to side with Saint Louis in this 8 vs. 9 matchup. 

Another surprise in the Midwest: No. 5 Texas Tech defeats No. 4 Alabama in the second round. The Red Raiders combine both a high volume with a high efficiency when it comes to the 3-point shot, ranking fifth in the country in both makes and percentage. They also have a star in Christian Anderson, who is the team’s go-to guy in the wake of JT Toppin’s season-ending injury. Anderson is one of two players in all of college basketball averaging at least 18 points and 7 assists, with his 7.6 assists ranking third in the nation.

Meanwhile, Bama is coming off a first-round loss in the SEC Tournament, despite being a 2-seed and facing 15-seed Ole Miss. No team has ever won the national title in the same season in which it lost its conference tournament opener, but Bama may not even win more than one game in March Madness. The Tide’s 83.5 ppg allowed are the most by the school in 56 years, and they’ve given up 87 ppg to their last four non-SEC opponents. Defense wins championships, and a lack of defense has the model predicting Alabama doesn’t even win its second-round matchup. You can see the model’s 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that’s beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.