Man City’s final league position if huge penalty was issued in their best season
The wait for the outcome of Manchester City’s alleged rule breaches continues with a potential points deduction hanging over the club
Manchester City celebrate at the end of their 100-point season in 2018(Image: Getty Images)
Manchester City would still have avoided the drop had they been handed a substantial points deduction in their most successful-ever Premier League campaign.
City and the Premier League are still awaiting the outcome of 115 alleged financial rule violations between 2009 and 2018. The club was originally charged in early 2023, while a hearing into the alleged violations concluded in December 2024 following a 12-week tribunal.
Nevertheless, an independent commission has yet to publish its conclusions. City have denied any wrongdoing and are believed to be optimistic about being exonerated.
If found guilty, the club could face a points deduction of between 40 and 60, according to leading football finance expert Kieran Maguire, who doesn’t think a relegation penalty will be handed out because the charges come under Premier League regulations, not EFL ones.
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If City had received a 60-point sanction during the 2017/18 campaign, when they claimed the title with 100 points, they would still have ended up 14th, above Brighton on goal difference.
That would have positioned them seven points clear of the relegation zone, which was occupied by Swansea City, Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion during that campaign. However, a 60-point sanction as things stand would leave them facing relegation.
Currently sitting on 56 points, just four behind league leaders Arsenal, Pep Guardiola’s side would find themselves on minus four points. Even if they were to win every remaining fixture, they would still only accumulate 29 points – a tally no club has ever survived relegation on.
Maguire arrived at the 40 to 60-point figure after considering the recent sanctions handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest for breaching financial regulations. Speaking on The Overlap Fan Debate, he said: “If we take a look at precedents, we’ve had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period.
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“The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it’s far bigger. The numbers involved, we’re not certain about, but they’re likely to be quite significant.
“So I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen from Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would, I think, on merit, be consistent with what we’ve seen from other decisions on logic. If they want to go further, then we don’t know the severity.
“In the cases of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP [Financial Fair Play] purely. The accusations against Manchester City are why it’s taking so long.
“Corporate fraud is a very serious accusation. The board of directors would have to go. How can you be in a meeting room with other members of the Premier League and the Premier League itself, of whom you’re a shareholder, with this accusation being proven?”
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