With a recent proposal for a ceasefire in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran on the table, some Winnipeg residents with ties to the war-torn country fear a tentative pause in the war won’t bring enough relief in the long-term. 

“Unless there is a transition to democracy, there is really no good outcome out of this,” Ramtin Teymouri, an Iranian-Canadian living in Winnipeg told CBC News.

“Either the infrastructure will be destroyed if the regime is in power …  or if there is a ceasefire the political structure remains intact and they will continue the execution spree.” 

According to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, Tehran has rejected the latest proposal for a 45-day ceasefire. Mediators had hoped the temporary halt in the conflict would have been enough time for talks to reach a permanent ceasefire.

Teymouri still has uncles, aunts and distant relatives living in Iran. He is worried for their safety in the crossfire of the conflict that had left a death toll of over 1,500 people by the end of March.

“Nobody wants to live under conditions where they may be bombed at any moment,” he said. 

But at the same time, Teymouri said his family has relayed to him that after decades at the helm of state oppression, they are willing to wait if this conflict could trigger a change in government. 

“War is scary but the regime is scarier,” Teymouri said.

Waiting for change

Since the start of the conflict almost six weeks ago, Saeid Ghavami has only talked with his siblings living in Iran over the phone three times, for about two minutes each. 

The Iranian-Canadian, also now living in Manitoba, told CBC News he is constantly worried one day he might not get to speak to them again. But his family is OK with going through this war if it means the current regime will be deposed. 

“This is what all Iranians, this is what they are hopeful [about],” he said. 

U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his deadline of Tuesday for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz or see its power plants and other targets attacked, the Associated Press reported.

Asked why Iranians would want him to follow up on his threat to blow up the country’s infrastructure, Trump said everyday citizens are “willing to suffer … in order to have freedom.”

Mojtaba Ferdousi Pour, head of the Iranian diplomatic mission in Cairo, told The Associated Press on Monday that the country will “only accept an end of the war with guarantees that we won’t be attacked again.” 

Ghavami, who is also a spokesperson for the Iranian Monarchists of Manitoba, argues that within the country’s diaspora in Winnipeg, there is concern for an end to the war at this moment because there hasn’t been a change in power just yet. 

If it were to happen that would only give the regime time to re-arm, Ghavami said. 

“They will come back and they will come back much more dangerous,” Ghavami said. “They will come back for revenge and, you know, history has proved that [the] Islamic Republic regime is brutal.” 

Teymouri said the deaths and destruction left so far by the conflict would have been arguably for nothing if the war was to end right now because Iran’s government is still holding onto power and they have the resources to rebuild from the wreckage. 

“It may take time, but they will do so,” he said.

Both Iranian-Canadians envision the end of the conflict with a change in government veered towards ensuring human rights. Teymouri said such a transition should make Iranians part of the conversation,.

Other outcomes risk making this conflict only one more in a string of crises hitting the country that have not yielded results, Teymouri said.

“They will continue living under repression and the world will move on and look away,” he said.