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“I’ve never seen so many aircraft over Afghanistan as I have in the past few weeks.” So said the airline captain I talked to yesterday. He was about to fly to India (where he landed safely earlier this morning). With so much of the skies closed to commercial aviation, a country previously regarded as an airspace pariah is now the transit nation of choice for pilots heading for south Asia.

A month ago, the airline world looked very different. Until the early hours of 28 February, a steady stream of planes trekked across Iran between the Gulf and the UK. The Middle East superhighway was the natural choice from leading British airports to Asia and beyond. More than half the passengers between the UK and Australia used Emirates, Etihad or Qatar Airways via Dubai, Abu Dhabi Doha, respectively. Those three airports are now on the Foreign Office no-go list – and are operating a fraction of their planned schedules.

Meanwhile their rivals prosper by swerving the Gulf. On Qantas, a one-way trip from London to Perth in economy is selling for almost £2,000 early next month. Such fares help to explain why Qantas passengers on long domestic routes in Australia are crammed into Boeing 737s. Where have those comfortable, wide-bodied Airbus A330 jets gone? On Pacific routes, that’s where, to free up Boeing 787s. Those ultra-long-range jets are needed for the really lucrative part of the Qantas network: between Australia and Europe.

Yesterday the Australian carrier revealed plans to increase capacity to and from Europe by 400 seats a day, largely by boosting flights from Paris to Sydney and Rome to Perth. For a trip to Australia you might consider a no-frills hop to the French or Italian capitals – thereby also dodging the sky-high air passenger duty of £106 that takes effect on ultra-long-haul journeys from Wednesday.

The “Middle East 3” (Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways) are collectively losing tens of millions of pounds each day. Even the few giant planes they are operating from Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester to the Gulf are half empty, I understand. The repercussions for the local tourism industry of vanished visitors go even deeper. While Iranian drones and missiles still pose a threat to the UAE and Qatar, those states will remain off-limits to many travellers. But the ME3 are desperate to return at scale. In the time-honoured fashion they will cut prices as low as necessary to fill the planes. That £2,000 one-way economy fare to Australia is not about to normalise.

Most of our horizons are much closer – and the prospects for summer are far from bleak. While the spot price of aviation fuel is soaring, competition is intensifying. Just when you thought there was no room for any more airlines between Gatwick and the Med, Jet2 has launched a big new programme from Sussex to the sun. “Ultimately, people still want to travel,” chief executive Steve Heapy told me. “They want a break, especially given the current mood and weather in the UK. We’re ready to meet that demand.”

Africa, Asia and Europe: new flight links

Put your clocks forward on Sunday – and refocus on new destinations. The last weekend of March is when the official summer season begins for the airlines, and it is traditionally a time when new routes are launched. The crop this year is bounteous, even though Air Arabia from Gatwick to Sharjah in the UAE has been put back to June.

Morocco gets the most enticing additions on Sunday. Ryanair starts flying from both Birmingham and Newcastle to Marrakech, while Royal Air Maroc launches a brand new destination from Gatwick: Tetouan. It will make access to the Rif Mountains and the colourful and enchanting city of Chefchaouen much easier. Tetouan is also an addition to the meagre list of International Airports You Can Walk From, currently headed by Gibraltar, Nice and Pisa.

Long haul, the star choice is Virgin Atlantic from London Heathrow to Seoul – bringing much-needed competition between the UK and South Korea. Seoul combines startling modern architecture with tranquil temples and plenty of open space, plus energetic nightlife. Good-value accommodation abounds, even in the centre; and finding great food in the Korean capital is simple.

Yet the flight timings are gruelling, due to the avoidance of Russia and war-torn locations from Ukraine to the UAE. The inbound leg, taking over 14 hours, is the longest Virgin route. Air China via Beijing is almost as quick, despite the change of planes: airlines from the People’s Republic are allowed to fly over Siberia between Asia and the UK, dramatically cutting flight times.

There are also a couple of “but surely that can’t be a new link?” candidates starting on Sunday. First ITA, successor to Alitalia, from Heathrow to Rome – restoring a route lost when slots were sold off. Next, Air France from Gatwick to Paris CDG. Some of the expected passengers on the 191-mile hop will transfer worldwide at the French hub; others may be dodging the high prices on Eurostar trains. The lowest rail fare from London to Paris on Monday is £228 one way; flying saves almost £100.

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