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Turns out U.S. President Donald Trump may not be driving as many Americans to Canada as we thought, though they are indeed leaving.

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“That’s it, I’m moving to Canada,” was a popular refrain among Trump’s opponents during his election campaign, and it’s true that Americans are coming to live here. But new data from the Association for Canadian Studies says fewer of them have done so in recent years.

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From January to September of 2025, 20% fewer Americans came to Canada as permanent residents than the same period over 2024. It’s also the lowest number since the beginning of the COVID-19 global pandemic in 2020.

Admissions have declined overall, but there was a steep one early this year, with 205 this January compared to 805 last January.

The number of temporary foreign workers, or TFWs, from the U.S. has declined too, though not as severely — down 10% in the from January to September of 2025 compared to that time in 2024.

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Bill C-3

The assent of Bill C-3, legislation that allows Americans with Canadian parents or grandparents to gain Canadian citizenship and children of Canadian parents who were also born in the U.S. to Canadian parents to become Canadian citizens (if the parent meets the three-year residency requirement) — hasn’t prompted a rise in the number of Americans coming to live here and be Canadian.

“There is an important gap between the purported high consideration of such an exit and its actual reality,” wrote ASC president Jack Jedwab.

‘The Donald Dash’

But make no mistake, Americans are leaving, and they’re leaving in big numbers, according to the Wall Street Journal, in an exodus in what some call “The Donald Dash.” The U.S. saw negative net migration last year, with an estimated 150,000 people who left the country, numbers that haven’t been seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Increased prospects of remote work and disenchantment with the U.S. over safety and cost-of-living, and cheaper university education opportunities are all issues driving the trend.

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The U.S. doesn’t collect substantial statistics on its departing citizens, but foreign data shows the degree to which Americans are seeking a living elsewhere, particularly in Portugal, which saw more than 25,000 come to that country last year compared to fewer than 5,000 five years before, and in Ireland. Irish realtors say one of every 15 residents in Dublin’s Grand Canal Dock district was born in the States. Elderly Americans are heading to Mexico for low-cost care. U.S. remote workers are choosing warm-weather locales such as Bali, Thailand and Colombia, sparking local backlashes against neighbourhood gentrification in those countries.

Even former communist states attract more Americans: Albania offers a special visa that allows U.S. citizens to live and work there without being taxed on foreign income for a year.

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“Previously, the Americans leaving were super-adventurous and well-credentialed. Now they’re ordinary people, like me,” Jen Barnett, founder of Expatsi, a relocation company, told WSJ. She is also a 54-year-old Alabama native who moved to Mexico in 2024.

“The reality is America’s own citizens are leaving in record numbers, replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable,” Jedwab said.

And Canadians are leaving too

Jedwab added Canadians are also seeking their fortunes abroad largely for the same reasons Americans are, pointing to StatsCan data that said around 120,000 Canadians left last year, 3% more than the year before and the fourth year in a row that number has risen. More than half were prime-age workers between 25-49 in mid-career, and were often highly skilled professionals such as doctors and engineers. Seniors (55 and older) have had enough too, accounting for nearly one in seven departures, though for them it’s more about quality of life. It’s a rapidly growing trend in that demographic, with the number leaving growing by 80.5% compared to 10 years ago.

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